The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 07/13/19

Saturday, July 13, 2019

The WPX Lawrence Bulls Have Been Updated -- July 13, 2019

These are huge wells.

Tracked here.

<'/center> Have You Ever Seen The Rain, CCR

Slawson Starting To Frack Some Jore Federal Wells -- Wells Being Reported -- Older Well Coming Back On Line -- July 13, 2019

The Slawson/White Butte Jore Federal wells are tracked here.

The well of interest:

28747, 2,592, Slawson, Jore Federal 2-12H, Clarks Creek, one section, 21 stages 4.8 million lbs, t9/14; cum 202K 5/19; shut in most of 6/17 - 10/17; probably due to neighboring wells being fracked? Back on line as of 4/19; no data to suggest this well was re-fracked;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	12	2756	3427	3334	3838	3471
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	9617	8988	9641	12651	11491
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	6	1207	1179	8743	1711	1546
BAKKEN	1-2019	4	49	0	0	82	57
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	1	18	345	0	27	20
BAKKEN	9-2018	6	457	209	222	621	543
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	1	7	0	0	9	3
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	7	0	0	29	8
BAKKEN	1-2018	1	5	0	0	7	1

Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust Wells Have Been Updated -- July 13, 2019

The Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust wells have been updated.

The well:

19845,1,084, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28C-21-1H, Charlson, t8/11; cum 578K 5/19; updated here;

Recent production; recent neighboring wells were fracked 8/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	4137	4077	1214	6091	5878	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	4635	4635	1269	6602	6398	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	5291	5308	1542	7131	6915	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	4893	4869	1030	6713	6298	220
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	6537	6484	1398	9124	7694	1214
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	7933	7928	1715	11667	10675	776
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	8728	8793	2261	14128	6529	7390
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	11193	11220	3463	17285	15233	1836
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	9194	9192	3755	13514	12565	787
BAKKEN	8-2018	20	387	211	1089	154	0	51
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	26	4042	4249	33	6549	5644	731
BAKKEN	5-2018	1	47	0	48	41	34	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	28	2392	2359	367	5555	5360	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2405	2471	335	5356	5161	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	2833	2710	380	6005	5789	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	2577	2650	402	6036	5791	29

Hurricane Barry -- July 13, 2019

Biggest question: why is the Weather Channel not using more drones to provide hurricane coverage?

The WeatherChannel could have hired a dozen adolescents who know how to use drones. It's amazing how slow mainstream media can be when it comes to technology.

Oh, maybe the drones would be blown away. LOL.

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Now, For Something A Little Different

Don't complain. I could have played some accordion music.

Coal: Part 2 -- July 13, 2019

Updates

July 14, 2019: see minor note and another link here.

Original Post

The four links that are background:

This all started with my "original note" the other day.

When looking at a "global warming - coal" site, the numbers did not seem to add up. Not the "actual" or "literal" numbers but the "metaphorical" numbers. The authors suggested that great headway was being made in decreasing the global use of coal (for whatever that is worth). Actually, they didn't state that: they said that the number of coal units operating around the world for for the first time in 2018

At this website, these data points:

Since 2000, the world has doubled its coal-fired power capacity to around 2,000 gigawatts (GW) after explosive growth in China and India.
A further 236GW is being built and 336GW is planned.
More recently, 227GW has closed due to a wave of retirements across the EU and US.
Combined with a rapid slowdown in the number of new plants being built, this means the number of coal units operating around the world fell for the first time in 2018, Carbon Brief analysis suggests.
Another 186GW is already set to retire by 2030 and 14 of the world’s 78 coal-powered countries plan a total phaseout. Meanwhile, electricity generated from coal has plateaued since 2014, so the expanding fleet is running fewer hours than ever. This erodes coal’s bottom line, as does competition from gas and renewables.

The "theme" of the article: coal is being phased out. Activists are making great strides in stopping the use of coal to generate electricity.

But the numbers certainly don't support the narrative.

But even worse, my hunch is that the authors are understating the amount of coal that will be used in the out years.

Look at this story coming out of Germany this past week (from S&P Global, same link as above), with this lede:

Germany has announced grand plans of exiting coal and the world will be watching to see if its coal phase-out will be a model for the rest of the world, including Asia, to follow.

So, the analysts are comparing Germany with Asia, asking whether the German model can be used by Asia.

Comparing Germany with Asia is like comparing raisins with watermelons.

Let's start here. Comparing Germany's coal use with China (much less all of Asia) is ludicrous.

Currently, Germany's 50MW of electricity is less than 5% of China's 1 million MW. So, give me a break.

Add in India, South Korea, and Indonesia, and Germany's share is less than 4%.

Now look at this. Same chart, but look at the future / the pipeline:

Even before we get started, China has in the pipeline, almost 200,000 MW of coal -generated electricity.

But this is what is worse, and the analysts conveniently ignore it: the "future/in pipeline" list is entirely different than the "current" list. Look at all the Asian countries and subcontinent Asia countries that make the list:

Vietnam, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines
even Turkey and Egypt are new on the "future" list
Turkey and Vietnam will each approach what Germany is currently using

China's "pipeline" exceeds Germany's current coal-generated electricity by almost 4x.

India's "pipeline" exceeds Germany's current coal-generated electricity by 2x.

There is already plenty of literature suggesting that India will actually need more coal-generated electricity than is currently "in the pipeline."

Bottom line: it does not matter to me one iota why Germany does what it does, but to say their actions will save the world is ludicrous. If one says that Germany is setting an example, that's ludicrous. Germany accounts for two percent of global-coal-generated electricity, and even if the country did nothing with regard to coal, that percentage would drop even further in the out years, as Asia brings on even more coal-generated electricity. In fact, Germany right now could do nothing with regard to cutting its coal consumption but still have bragging rights that the country will account for less than 1% of global coal-generated electricity in the out-years.

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Other Observations: Power Plants Being Built

The authors at carbonbrief.org argue that the number of coal-fed power plants being built is decreasing.

a rapid slowdown in the number of new plants being built, this means the number of coal units operating around the world fell for the first time in 2018

Two thoughts:

that's a snapshot in time; who's to say that will be accurate five years from now?
it's a lot easier to expand existing power plants than to build new ones

Tracking the number of new power plants is absolutely meaningless. It appears that more electricity will be generated in the out-years with fewer coal plants. So what if the total number of power plants is decreasing. This is sort of like counting body bags during the Vietnam War.

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Other Observations: Costs

The authors at carbonbrief.org argue that renewable energy is (becoming) less expensive than coal. Right now we have a glut of natural gas (and a glut of energy, in general for that matter). Who's to say that this will be the case ten years from now? If natural gas is unable to keep up with demand, the fallback position is ... coal. Everything I read suggests that renewable energy will become more expensive over time, not less expensive. Availability of rare earth elements is just the beginning of the bad news.

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Other Observations: Global Warming

It is obvious that "no one" really takes the global warming scare seriously. Even the authors of the carbonbrief.org article appear to be giddy with excitement with the coal story they promote. In fact, the numbers simply do not support their narrative.

To suggest that the German "model" could be used by Asia: simply ludicrous.

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A Reader Comments

In response to a Sierra Club story in which it was stated China/Asia would build 2,000 new coal plants over the new 20 years, a reader commented:

Asia may easily add a 1000 more coal fired power plants during the next 20 years, but they will also be adding NG or LNG, nuclear and some junk wind and solar.

No way will 2000 new coal plants be built in the world in the next 20 years. Unlike 99% of energy pundits I expect wind and solar to peak out in the next five years. By then it will become obvious that renewables can't work without storage, and storing sufficient renewable electricity will cost at least five times as much as generating it.

1. A typical coal plant is about 600 MW in size. Gigawatts measure the capacity of large power plants or of many plants. One gigawatt (GW) = 1,000 megawatts = 1 billion watts. (600 mw x1000=600,000=600 GW,

2. A 365-day year equals 8,760 hours, so over a period of one year, power of one gigawatt equates to 8.76 terawatt hours of energy. Conversely, one terawatt hour is equal to a sustained power of about 114 megawatts for a period of one year.

3. 600 GW capacity X 8.76 terrawatt hours = 5,256 TWh (less 15% or so for maintenance etc, for a capacity factor of 85% vs. wind at less than 30% and solar at less than 20%). <30 25="" and="" at="" solar="">

<30 and="" at="" br="" solar=""> 4.The total amount of electricity consumed worldwide was 19,504 TWh in 2013. I can't imagine 40,000 TWh in 2040 but I do know I won't be around!

The Staggering EOG Mandaree Wells -- July 13, 2019

Data points to observe:

cumulative production: 300K+ in in less than three years; one well at 500K; another approaching 600K
huge amounts of sand
the dreaded decline curve, but production still going strong
correlation between cumulative production and amount of sand
the "chronological" numbers for these wells (in red bold below)

Reminder: EOG was one of the first to take the lead in acquiring sand/using large amounts of sand. Some of have suggested the company should be renamed EOG &Sand.

The Mandaree wells (by many different operators are tracked here. That page has not been updated in along time.

Look at how good some of these wells are. These are three EOG Mandaree wells sited in section 7-149-94, permitted back in 2016:

32512, 1,505, EOG, Mandaree 30-0706H, 37 stages; 17 million lbs, Squaw Creek, t12/16; cum 306K 5/19, recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	28	1829	1770	4710	14714	12289	1986
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	2487	2508	5627	17054	16512	56
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	2452	2540	6005	18010	16738	765
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	2272	2225	5602	14312	13881	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	3411	3492	7136	18847	18321	23
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	2543	2528	6297	12369	11626	311
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	3442	3477	7652	23532	19436	3609
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	3506	3280	8023	21488	20352	58

32513, 1,910, EOG, Mandaree 24-0706H, 44 stages; 27.5 million lbs, Squaw Creek, t12/16; cum 500K 5/19, recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	28	4327	4336	2762	13201	10988	1776
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	4766	4796	2853	15083	14548	49
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	4369	4414	2707	13803	12718	581
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	4763	4752	2772	20074	19648	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	6658	6639	3293	23716	23183	30
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	6095	6050	3431	20738	19710	527
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	5298	5333	2894	16128	13192	2449
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	5419	5280	3030	18248	17238	498
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	6605	6748	3564	29033	28212	300

32514, 1,355, EOG, Mandaree 31-0706H, 46 stages; 28.7 million lbs, Squaw Creek, t12/16; cum 575K 5/19, recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	28	5174	5197	5109	19207	16159	2611
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	5757	5838	5549	22604	22044	74
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	6190	6204	6116	25462	23867	1091
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	5963	5924	5999	27872	27446	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	7526	7515	7079	30753	30211	39
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	7262	7238	7099	31075	29776	797
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	7195	7267	7074	34493	28681	5325
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	8095	7880	7769	36569	35044	1013
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	8187	8352	7788	39245	38317	407
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	8679	8732	8156	35612	33338	1767
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	8981	8885	8473	34190	31501	2187
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	9621	9701	8933	36675	36193	0

Nine Point Energy To Report Two More Little Muddy Wells Soon -- July 13, 2019

These were 2016 permits.

32442, conf, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 1H, Williston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2019	33195	2526

32443, conf, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 2H, Williston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2019	21617	14053

US Ranks 44th In Flaring Intensity -- July 13, 2019

Primer on flaring: this link will most likely result in a PDF being downloaded on your desktop.

The graphic at the bottom of the fact sheet is most interesting.

The graphic might be hard to read but the US is ranked 44th on that graphic. The graphic shows the top ten flaring/crude oil production countries, and then skips to number 44, the US.

For all the grief the US gets due to flaring, "North America" flaring, in fact, is incredibly small, compared to the rest of the world. Look at the small amount of flaring from all of North America compared to Afria and Eurasia. Link here:

Week 28: July 7, 2019 -- July 13, 2019

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Price of oil remains flat despite Mideast tensions; tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico; OPEC cuts;

Top US non-energy story:

US equity markets hit all-time highs; and, here;

Top US energy story:

EIA graphic -- US crude oil production surpassed 12 million bopd in April, 2019

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

ND oil production to surge; waiting for infrastructure to catch up;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Heavy rains raise level of Lake Sakakawea by about eight inches (this does not sound like global-warming induced drought)
ND gets $10 million in federal airport grants, including Minot ($2 million); Hettinger ($1 million)
US ranked 54th in flaring intensity
US surpasses 12 million bopd for first time

Operations:

Huge jump in production for an old XTO Werre Trust Federal well

Miscellaneous:

Projecting number of permits to be issued in 2019;

Commentaries:

Notes From All Over -- Part 1, July 13, 2019

How's this for "notes from all over"? A reader noticed this; I would have missed it.

From Reuters, no less: due to quality issues of Russian oil, some eastern European countries are importing US oil.

Ukraine this month received its first ever barrels from the United States, according to Refinitiv Eikon flows data, as the tanker Wisdom Venture unloaded 80,000 tonnes of Bakken crude in Odessa on July 6 for the Kremenchug refinery, the port said.

One source says one metric tonne is equivalent to 7.33 bbls.

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Qatar: Making America Great

Earlier I posted a list of new petchem projects slated for the Texas / Louisiana gulf coast. The companies involved / projected cost (rounded) / location:

Sasol / $12 billion / Louisiana
Exxon - Sabic / $10 billion / Texas
Chevron Phillips Chemical Co, Qatar Petroleum / $8 billion / US Gulf Coast
Dow / $6 billion / Texas, Louisiana
LyondellBasell Industries NV / $2.4 billion / Texas
Exxon / $2 billion / Texas
Total, Nova Chemicals, Borealis / $2 billion / Texas

For more on the Qater / Chevron / Phillips project see this Rigzone story:

note the American company: Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (I had it wrong in the original link, separating Chevron from Phillips; has since been corrected)
a 2,000-kiloton-per-annum ethylene cracker
two 1,000-kiloton-per-annum high-denisty polyethylene units
9,000 construction jobs, 600 full-time positions during operations
this is the second major collaboration between these two companies announced this year

the companies are developing another world-scale project in Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City

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Peregrine Energy Partners

From a press release:

Peregrine Energy Partners has agreed to acquire producing and non-producing oil and gas royalties in Williams County, North Dakota from an undisclosed seller
the area will be operated by Whiting Petroleum

The press release was otherwise light on details and mostly an "ad." The "million dollar number" in the article had nothing to do with Peregrine. At least not directly.

The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

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