Locator: 49757NVDA.
Before getting to the chart, one might spend some time at this link. If the link is lost, that's fine. It's simply extolling the advantages Nvidia holds over the rest: "one ring to rule the rest."
Chart of the day -- Nvidia -- again.
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GOOG: One-Half Billion Dollars Every Day
Is Anyone Paying Attention?
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CSCO
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Goldman And Chips
Locator: 49681B.
Disney - OpenAI licensing agreement: yes, AI is real. Money is flowing from Bob Iger to Sam Altman. Link here. Three year, exclusive deal, for now. Sam Altman: "a wonderful start." Long interview on CNBC -- joint interview, side-by-side -- Bob Iger and Sam Altman. Iger looked almost giddy; couldn't quit smiling. Altman, not particularly well known for having a public happy face. LOL. Altman's huge competitor is Google (Gemini). Quick, who owns YouTube? Who was the big loser? Again, did someone miss an opportunity?
Chart of the Day:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $57.44.
New wells reporting:
RBN Energy: US E&Ps continue to maintain investor support despite commodity price plunge.
It hasn’t been easy, but the leading U.S. oil and gas producers have maintained investor support — even as crude prices dropped by 25% over the past three years. Much like the characters in “Wicked,” whose grip on the audience’s loyalty endures, magic or no magic, these companies have cast their own spell by throttling back capital spending, prioritizing shareholder returns and keeping new debt at bay. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the cash-allocation strategies of U.S. E&Ps in Q3 2025.
It was no surprise that surging post-pandemic commodity prices drove a massive recovery in E&P share prices through the mid-2022 peak. Crude oil prices subsequently retreated, however, tumbling 25% from $84.26/bbl at the end of Q3 2022 to $63.96/bbl on September 30, the end of Q3 2025. What is remarkable is that the S&P E&P Index rose by 6% over the same period. The factors that have made oil and gas producer shares so “popular” include their decision a few years back to dramatically shift cash allocation from capital investment to dividends and share repurchases. As we explained in Mission: Impossible, the average E&P dividend yield of the 39 companies we monitor soared from 1% in 2019 to 3.28% in 2022, 3.98% in 2023 and 3.79% in 2024. Despite lower commodity realizations, the average yield remained elevated at 3.65% through the first nine months of 2025, more than three times the average 1.18% yield of the S&P 500 in September.
Sustaining dividends while revenues decline raises concerns that the industry might be tempted to use debt financing for shareholder returns. However, as we recently explained in Zero Sum Game, the average debt-to-capital ratio of the companies we cover dipped to a five-year low of 24.5% in Q2 2025, far below the nearly 40% peak during the pandemic. Our universe of E&Ps actually reduced net debt by $9 billion from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025, despite continued strong acquisition activity.
The major reason balance sheets have remained solid is that the acquisitions were largely equity-funded. As shown in Figure 1 below, the total shares outstanding for the companies we follow (combined blue and green bar segments and left axis) jumped from 8 billion in 2021 to more than 10 billion in 2024 through substantial equity issuances (green bar segments and left axis). Diluting shareholder equity by increasing the number of outstanding shares normally depresses stock prices, but E&Ps have been able to mitigate that trend by sustaining significant share-repurchase programs (purple line and right axis). ExxonMobil and Chevron, which have pursued the most aggressive buyback programs ($20 billion and $15 billion in 2024, respectively), have dramatically curtailed their programs in favor of dividends as commodity prices have declined. Because share issuances have slowed through the first three quarters of the year, the total shares outstanding for the 39 companies we follow have actually declined.
Locator: 49675INVESTING.
I may have to start posting chart of the morning, chart of the afternoon, and chart of the day in the New Year!
Locator: 49668INVESTING.
Chart of the day (COTD):
Counterintuitive:
AI: wow, wow, wow. The markets today were pretty mixed and pretty boring, but if you get past the headlines, it was a huge day today. If you have doubts, read about GE Vernova and look at the ticker today (GEV).
Silver: a huge, huge day. Broke out today. Check out the chart. It seems just the other day I was buying silver bullion for $24 and now it's over $60, jumping another $.280 / ounce. [Yes, I know, "the other day,' was decades ago.]
WMT: Mentioned a few weeks ago that it was going to happen, today was the day. Walmart (WMT) moved from the NYSE to the NASDAQ. That speaks volumes. This is like a franchise quarterback moving from the Dallas Cowboys to the Denver Broncos. IYKYK. I know this is not the "be-all to end-all" but to move to the NASDAQ, a tech-heavy exchange, tells me that WMT sees itself as a tech company competing with Amazon, and not a grocer competing with Target. This is huge.
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Websites
Look at the top ten or eleven or twenty sites.
Media
Chatbots:
Retail
Miscellaneous
Locator: 49605COPPER.
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Chokepoints
Previously posted:
Chatbot and LDC chokepoints:
Locator: 49592SCCO.
Ticker SCCO: one day, five days, and five years.
For the extended family only: family's portfolio hit a new milestone that after fifty years of investing is unprecedented. Amazing what paying attention during a bull market can create!
Most duplicitous business analyst: Carl Q.
Colette Kress -- Nvidia CFO and Executive VP -- broke through the glass ceiling in a men's world. Holy mackerel. Amazing. Wiki.
Cramer: top Mag 7 company for investing -- AMZN.
Cramer: natural gas price today is abnormally high price. Says investing in natural gas has been a widow-maker.
Briefly:
Locator: 49583TECH.
Jargon: zero-legacy day. Could Apple tap into this?
Mag 7:
Chart of the day: MU --
Most surprising ticker: GM. Maybe it should have been the chart of the day.
From Reuter's today:
Beth:
Black Friday - Cyber Monday: link here.
X-files:
Global warming:
Locator: 49557B.
Market: an exciting end to the week. The market closes early today.
Chart of the day: Micron. Five year:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI:
New wells reporting:
Monday, December 1, 2025: 1 for the month, 124 for the quarter, 708 for the year,
41327, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-155-94-1102H-5,
Sunday, November 30, 2025: 65 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 707 for the year,
41700, conf, Marlo Operating, TOSCO Branch 4,
41663, conf, Petro-Hunt, Lee 158-4-15A-27-1HS,
41328, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-155-94-1102H-4,
41243, conf, Hess, GO-Vinger-156-98-2116H-7,
41024, conf, CLR, Berlain 6-30H,
40558, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom-156-98-2833H-6,
36700, conf, BR, Muri 2A-MBH,
Saturday, November 29, 2025: 58 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 700 for the year,
41530, conf, CLR, Garfield Federal 8-5H,
Friday, November 28, 2025: 57 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 699 for the year,
41415, conf, Slawson, Atlas 2-21-16H,
41224, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 14-23 2H,
40826, conf, CLR, Bjarne 6-29H,
36699, conf, BR, Muri 1A-MBH,
Yesterday: Thursday, November 27, 2025: 53 for the month, 111 for the quarter, 695 for the year,
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2025 | 18 | 15811 | 15198 | 80201 | 17074 | 3662 | 13412 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2025 | 30 | 8465 | 8455 | 58525 | 4111 | 4003 | 108 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2025 | 31 | 10125 | 10129 | 67146 | 5077 | 5054 | 23 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2025 | 29 | 10929 | 10977 | 67985 | 5726 | 5640 | 86 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2025 | 30 | 13862 | 13684 | 78047 | 8818 | 535 | 8283 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2025 | 4 | 1329 | 1284 | 8048 | 7551 | 0 | 7551 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2025 | 30 | 9523 | 9532 | 68013 | 4585 | 4465 | 120 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2025 | 31 | 12564 | 12537 | 77368 | 6032 | 6004 | 28 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2025 | 30 | 11543 | 11617 | 66893 | 5803 | 5716 | 87 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2025 | 30 | 16110 | 15893 | 92293 | 10408 | 632 | 9776 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2025 | 5 | 1215 | 1173 | 10153 | 6604 | 0 | 6604 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2025 | 30 | 10266 | 10242 | 55573 | 5332 | 5192 | 140 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2025 | 31 | 11514 | 11516 | 62186 | 5861 | 5835 | 26 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2025 | 30 | 12295 | 12338 | 63720 | 6350 | 6255 | 95 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2025 | 30 | 14928 | 14703 | 85497 | 9876 | 599 | 9277 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2025 | 4 | 443 | 428 | 6778 | 7769 | 0 | 7769 |
RBN Energy: angst over EU's methane regulations heats up as phase-in period looms. Link here. Archived here.
For months, the Trump administration and energy industry groups have been pressing the European Union (EU) to either scrap or significantly ease its regulations on methane emissions.
They assert the methane monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements, set to ratchet up in 2027, 2028 and 2030, would be impossible for U.S. natural gas producers to meet and result in a sharp decline in — or even an end to — U.S. LNG flows to the EU. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the controversy and how we think it’s likely to be resolved.
Locator: 49798AVGO.
Today's book: as a result of a sidebar e-mail discussion with a reader, ordered from Amazon two days ago and arrived yesterday --
Complete Retirement Guidebook: How To Plan It, Live It, and Enjoy It -- The Wall Street Journal, Glenn Ruffenach & Kelly Greene, c. 2007.
Net worth:
Affluence in the US. Income vs wealth. Wiki.
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It's All AVGO Today
Worth his weight in gold today:
iPhone suppliers:
Locator: 49795NVIDIA.
Chart of the day:
At the close:
Tag: NVDA.
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The Movie Page
Having watched Chinatown twice this weekend, from start to finish, twice. One really has to pay attention, but if one pays attention, it's an incredible story, an incredible movie.
Prior to watching the movie, and watching reviews of it after watching the movie, I kept hearing the same thing: it's impossible to understand the movie.
I thought the movie was straightforward. Yes, a lot of unknowns, a lot of questions as one watched the movie, but it was no more challenging than any other similar murder mystery we see on television. At least that was my take.
I think Tailor, Tinker, Soldier, Spy was much more difficult to follow.
But that doesn't take anything away from the movie. Clearly one of the best movies I've ever seen. Everything was great about it. As Ben Makiewizc says, it might be "the perfect film."
But I certainly wouldn't call the movie confusing. That's what makes it such a great movie. I've ordered the screenplay of Chinatown from Amazon. I may order (buy) the movie from Amazon so I can watch it whenever I want.
According to wiki:
According to Freytag, a drama is divided into five parts, or acts, which some refer to as a dramatic arc: exposition, rising action, climax, falling action, and dénouement. Although Freytag's analysis of dramatic structure is based on five-act plays, it can be applied (sometimes in a modified manner) to short stories and novels as well, making dramatic structure a literary element.
So, Chinatown, what was the climax! When did it all come together? When did J.J. Gittes (Jack Nicholson / private detective) get it!?!? At what moment did it all come together? Obviously, it was the scene in which Evelyn Mulray (Faye Dunaway) explains the relationship of her family -- father, daughter, granddaughter. One can argue that Dunaway's "confession" was simply the "climax" of one subplot in the movie but I think it was much more than that. Maybe more later.
YouTube: Roger Deakins and Steven Soderbergh on "Chinatown" (Roman Polanski, 1974), link here.
Locator: 49771INV.
Tag: MMF MMFs
My favorite chart: wow, wow, wow. Haven't seen this very often. A huge decrease in w/w of money market fund deposits, link here:
Chart of the day:
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OBBB
In progress.
Example of OBBB: at the tab at the top of the page.
Gold:
Cooling
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The Book Page
I read this book -- or at least parts of it some time ago -- but now I'm re-reading it. Already it's given me an idea for the blog. More to follow.
Like a Rolling Stone: A Memoir, Jann S Wenner, September 13, 2022. Notes will be kept here.
Part One
Chapter 1
Parents:
The rest of the notes will be tracked here.
Locator: 49421MARKET.
Before we get to the charts, link here:
These three charts taken on Friday, mid-day trading, at the end of a very, very "bad" week.
The three tickers suggest an interesting narrative.
Locator: 49408B.
Dow: first close about 48,000.
Cisco: earnings beat; shares up over 4% after hours.
CAT: chart of the day --
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.29.
Active rigs: 32.
Two new permits, #42470 - #42471, inclusive:
Four permits renewed:
Dry hole:
Locator: 49371HOUSING.
Chart of the day.
Post-Covid angst had nothing to do with this.
The lockdown began March, 2020.
One year later, the US started to recover, March, 2021, and "fully" recovered by March, 2022.
In the graph above, interesting enough, 2022 was the year that the "green line" got back to pre-2020-numbers.
Inflation:
Waiting time in emergency room / acute care clinics at records.
What's the connecting factoid?
Googling the right question will give you the answer. One credible and highly respectable contributor over at x has done just that.
Locator: 49355PSX.
COTD:
I believe the top three refiners in the US are Valero, MPC, and PSX.
PSX will likely increase its dividend by five to eight percent next February / March (2026).
