US Oil Production -- Monthly EIA Data -- March 17, 2025

Locator: 48516OIL.

Link here. 

Saudi, US, And Oil Production -- March 20, 2024

Locator: 46811OIL.

US Oil:

Link here. One of my favorite graphs. It's been a long time since we've seen this graph updated by the EIA. I wonder if folks see in this chart what I'm seeing?

If I'm reading this correctly, Saudi Arabia's production in the last ten years peaked at barely 10 million bopd in 2018 and by 2019 already on a declining slope. At low volume, 2020 and 2021, the years of the plague.

US Energy Independence -- Simon Watkins -- January 10, 2023

Themes: 2023.  

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Medicine: it's all about CRISPR, mRNA.

Information: it's all about semi-conductors, automation, robotics.

Link here. Archived.

From the linked article:

Although the U.S. marked an historic shift in 2020 by becoming a net exporter of petroleum, it has remained a net importer of crude oil since the end of the Second World War.

For the relatively uninitiated, which appears to include Saudi Arabia in its ‘oil output figures’ of anything above its true average crude oil production figure of 8.23 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1973 to the end of last week, petroleum and crude oil are not interchangeable words in global oil market terms.

Basically, ‘crude oil’ is just crude oil, but petroleum includes crude oil, refined petroleum products, and other liquids (including gas condensates). This technical but important distinction aside, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that 2023 may see the U.S. finally become a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since 1945 and the ramifications of this for its policy towards the Middle East could be huge.

To get the figures out of the way first: the EIA forecasts that the U.S.’s net crude oil imports will fall to 3.4 million bpd in 2023 as domestic crude oil production increases to an annual average close to the all-time monthly high of 13 million bpd in November, all other factors remaining equal. In the run-up from its historic shift in 2020 to become a net exporter of petroleum products, the U.S. was producing an average of just over 11 million bpd of crude oil from the beginning of 2020 to end of 2022. However, in the last few months of 2022, the U.S. produced over 12 million bpd, on a rising trajectory, with the EIA initially forecasting that its crude oil production in 2023 would average at least 12.44 million bpd. On the other side of the supply/demand equation, in recent years, the U.S. has steadily consumed around 20 million bpd of crude oil, leaving a net crude oil import figure of around 7 million bpd. However, according to the EIA, in 2021 the U.S. only imported 6.1 million bpd of crude oil, although this figure rose to 6.3 million bpd in the first half of 2022. Additionally, according to widely circulated U.S. government data, November 2022 saw the U.S. import just 1.1 million bpd of crude oil.  

Partly this was due to sanctions on Russian crude oil and gas exports but in larger part it was due to the rolling releases of crude oil from the U.S.’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve and to the above-mentioned production increases in U.S. crude oil production in the latter part of 2022

Short-term reductions in U.S. crude oil imports can continue to be affected every now and again by such SPR releases. However, the onus for sustained import reductions to allow the U.S. to become a net exporter of crude oil can come from policies announced by U.S. President Joe Biden’s team when oil prices were spiking around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

Back in March. 2022, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that Biden’s administration had started taking steps that should result in a ‘significant increase’ in domestic energy supply by the end of 2022.

Progress on those efforts has been slowed by the cascade of other events surrounding Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, but Granholm’s comments underlined that the green energy rhetoric of Biden’s early presidency was beginning to make way for action based on the cold hard fact that high oil and gas prices damage the U.S. economically and are catastrophic for the re-election chances of sitting presidents and their parties. According to Granholm in March, the U.S. was working to identify at least 3 million bpd of new global oil supply, with assurances from several high-level oil and gas executives that their companies were set to dramatically increase investments and bring online new rigs. 

Much more at the link.

Global Recoverable Oil Decreases; US Recoverable Oil Increases -- July 2, 2022

From Houston Chronical, July 1, 2022:

The total estimate of the world’s recoverable oil is down 9 percent this year, though estimates are up in the U.S. 

Recoverable oil is the amount companies could produce using available technology, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. 

While most countries will lose oil resources this year, the U.S. will add 8 billion barrels to its discovered resources. 

Overall the U.S. is second for total recoverable oil with an estimated 193 billion barrels while Saudi Arabia is first with 275 billion barrels.

If one assumes, Saudi Arabia's numbers are exaggerated, and the Bakken is underestimated, the US, in fact, may be threatening Saudi Arabia for the lead. 

And, of course, there is always Venezuela. 

To put this in perspective, from January 6, 2022 (just six months ago): 

I get a kick out of pundits back to arguing whether the US is energy-independent or energy-dependent.

That train has left the station. 

The US is now energy dominant. 

I was not the first to say that -- others are starting to say that -- but that view is corroborated by the graphic at this link. 

Holy mackerel. When I went to tag this, I had forgotten I already had the tag: "US_Energy_Dominance." 

The first post with that tag was posted December 10, 2019.

One might want to google US energy dominance, putting it in quotes. You might be surprised at the first hit on google.

But look at this. From Bloomberg, only one month ago, "US to become 'Energy Dominant' on global price jump, Bank of America" -- December 1, 2021. 

From Summer, 2020, edition of International Economy, Today: Dominance Denied. How America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed the oil industry. 

Perhaps better said: how America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed Big Oil allowing Small Oil to takeover.

Energy Dependent --> Energy Independent --> Energy Dominant -- January 6, 2022

Updates

July 1, 2022: US recoverable oil increases as global recoverable oil decreases. 

Original Post 

I get a kick out of pundits back to arguing whether the US is energy-independent or energy-dependent.

That train has left the station. 

The US is now energy dominant. 

I was not the first to say that -- others are starting to say that -- but that view is corroborated by the graphic at this link. 

Holy mackerel. When I went to tag this, I had forgotten I already had the tag: "US_Energy_Dominance." 

The first post with that tag was posted December 10, 2019.

One might want to google US energy dominance, putting it in quotes. You might be surprised at the first hit on google.

But look at this. From Bloomberg, only one month ago, "US to become 'Energy Dominant' on global price jump, Bank of America" -- December 1, 2021. 

From Summer, 2020, edition of International Economy, Today: Dominance Denied. How America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed the oil industry. 

Perhaps better said: how America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed Big Oil allowing Small Oil to takeover.

Reuters: US To Become World's Largest LNG Exporter By Capacity Next Year -- December 21, 2021

LNG: US to be world's biggest LNG export. Previously posted citing different source. From Reuters:

The United States is set to become the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in 2022, surpassing Qatar and Australia, and may hold that title for years to come.

In a year when China and other large economies in Europe and Asia scrambled to source enough supply for heating and power generation, the United States was sitting on a bevy of supply - one that will grow in coming years.

Global LNG demand has hit record highs each year since 2015, due mostly to surging demand in China and the rest of Asia. Much of that global appetite has been met by steadily rising U.S. LNG exports, which have reached new records every year since 2016 and is poised to continue in 2022.

The United States should remain the biggest LNG exporter by capacity until around 2025, when Qatar could regain the lead as its North Field expansion starts to enter service. But if some U.S. developers start building new LNG export plants, the United States may not give up the crown.

***********************************
Chorizo, Potatoes, And Eggs For Breakfast

Potatoes need to be sliced and diced, then fried before adding the chorizo and then the eggs. 

Cost:

• the eggs: $1.29 / dozen: I will use one egg. 12 cents.
• potatoes, I forget, but maybe 50 cents for one potato. I will use about one-fourth of one very large potato. 12 cents.
• the chorizo, $1.89 for one package. I will use maybe a sixth, more likely an eighth. 25 cents. 

• coffee: K-cup, 50 cents.

• jugo de naranja: 20 cents.

• toast and butter: inconsequential. 

US Saudi Oil Imports Slow To A Trickle -- March 1, 2021

Bloomberg still says US not energy independent. Whatever. Link here. 

US Dominance In Oil, Natural Gas -- Forbes -- December 11, 2019

Now that I've had time to look at the Forbes story that a reader sent me, time for a stand-alone post regarding same. This was the original post.

From the Forbes link, the lede:

The American fracking for oil and natural gas boom will continue on through the 2020s. And why not? Since fracking took off in 2008, we have more than doubled our proven oil reserves to ~65 billion barrels. Natural gas reserves have surged over 80% to ~430 trillion cubic feet. Already the largest oil and gas producer, the U.S. is set to increase its share of ~17% of global oil production and ~23% of gas. In the 2020s, the U.S. is set to supply over 60% of new oil and gas -- see figure at link. 

Natural gas? Staggering:

For natural gas, although the associated gas supply coming from the Permian will help keep U.S. prices low, another 10% rise in U.S. shale gas output to above 100 Bcf/d is to be expected over the next two years. This means that we will soon be producing 50% more gas than Russia, just having passed it in 2009.  

For investors and policy makers:

Ultimately, 1) oil having no significant substitute, 2) gas rising toward being 50% of all U.S. power capacity, and 3) a surging export complex to export both fuels ensure that our massive resource base will be developed. Simply put, those pushing divestment should realize that it obviously cannot work: divestment does nothing to reduce demand. 

Collusion:

Vladimir Putin knows that U.S. shale production and surging associated exports are throwing a big wrench into his grand strategy of energy domination. Russia’s position as the largest oil and gas exporter rakes in over $300 billion each year. No wonder then that Putin has been funding NGOs whose job is to persuade governments to stop shale development. “Without Fracking For Natural Gas, The U.S. Loses And Putin Wins,” making anti-shale positions the real “Russian collusion” story. 

The next revolution?

As for the “end of shale,” be....very careful with that. You should know that not even the industry itself ever saw the revolution coming in the first place. I really do think, however, that the next energy revolution could be CO2-EOR, for which we have literally hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in mature fields primed for development, while also storing CO2 safely in the ground to cut emissions. Now yielding ~450,000 b/d, the industry itself does not promote CO2-EOR nearly enough. But to its credit, the Natural Resources Defense Council calls CO2-EOR a win-win-win for our environment, energy, and economy. 

Graphics:

From a previous post:

US Dominance In NEW Oil And Gas Production -- December 10, 2019

Updates

December 10, 2019: see first comment and / or this link: https://twitter.com/ShaleProfile?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor.  For North Dakota data, ShaleProfile only analyzes/reports horizontal wells in production since 2005. The NDIC reports production from all wells in North Dakota. Having said that, the Bakken accounts for 96% of North Dakota production.

Original Post 

I have not read this yet; a reader sent it to me, thank you.

I will read it later, but want to get it posted; things are moving quickly.

Link here at Forbes, December 8, 2019: US dominates new oil and gas production. By the way, this was noted earlier, different source, with great graphics. If I can find it, I will link it.

Ah, one minute later, here it is.  Re-posting:

The graphic has to do with NEW oil and gas production, not total production.

New Mexico ranks above North Dakota.

Russia will barely produce more NEW oil and gas than Ohio.

Neither California nor Alaska are in the graphic.

Wyoming, Utah did not make the list but Colorado did, again for NEW gas and oil.

Pennsylvania, at 7%, is more than twice that of Russia -- that's huge, but when Ohio will produce almost as much NEW gas and oil as Russia ...

For new oil and gas production, seven out of the top 10 biggest oil and gas producers would be US states, with only Canada, Brazil and Russia making it onto the list. Pennsylvania is set to be the third, producing more than double new gas and oil that that of Russia.

I don't know how many ways one can show it, but here's another graphic. It's not so much that the US will contribute 60% of the new global production, but rather:

• it's how puny Russia's new production is in comparison
• it's that Saudi Arabia becomes a net importer (other sources) by 2029
• it's that no Mideast country is significant enough with regard to new oil and gas to get on the chart
• it's that Norway is not significant enough to get on chart either