Monday, February 3, 2025

EVs -- California Sales Sag -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48467EVS.

elektrek: link here. Highly recommend that you check out this site at least once a month. 99% of its articles are focused on EVs. It seems most of the articles highlight how well EVs in general are doing and that EVs in particular are doing very well. 

But, my takeaway, scanning through the site quickly, things are not going all that well in "EV-land." I thought I might be biased or missing something so I wanted to look at the time line: my thesis was that by this time, 2025, we should be a whole farther along the s-shaped curve than we are. So, using AI, I asked when did evs become "thing." I was surprised how AI knew exactly what I was asking: 

Now scanning elektrek this week, some headlines:

  • Tesla's sales drop double digits in California, y/y, the US' biggest EV market;
  • cutting-edge Renault Filante concept hopes to break EV efficiency records -- say what? Renault Filante -- that's where "hope" lies?
  • the newest arrangement between AAA and ChargePoint, according to elektrek "is light  on details. It explains only that the [partnership] covers Level 2 AC charging as well as Level 3 DC-fast-charging stations AAA and CAA members in need of charging infrastructure can find more information at a Chargepoint-AAA website." The website is .... well, awful.
  • Tesla sales tank in Europe;
  • GM is cutting a shift at its EV plant in Mexico because Honda is cutting back on the EV that GM is producing for Honda; say what?

Below is the lead article with my introductory observation / comment:

Not said in the article: calendar years 2023 and 2024 were two of the best years ever for investors in the US stock market -- a lot of folks felt rich -- and yet, expensive EVs not being sold.

From Elektrek

The Two-Week Anniversary -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48466TRUMP.

Breaking:

Is it just me or does it seem like the new president has accomplished a gazillion things in just two weeks?

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Movie Night

Double Indemnity, 1944.

I've watched this several times. Never gets old. 

I find it amazing how such films "stand up" after decades -- 2025 - 1944  = 81 years.

Feels like an Alfred Hitchcock movie. Especially since it includes a train scene, something Hitchcock always seemed to like.

And filmed during WWII. Amazing.

***************************
Movie Night

American Graffiti: Middlebury College. Relationships. Wiki. American Graffiti review, looking back, 5/12/2023.
Relationships, The New York Times: link here.
Apple's FindMe App: link here. The Gen Z generation is overthinking this.

Today Is The Two-Week Anniversary -- Whiting With Three New Permits -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48465B.

Today is the two-week anniversary:

  • DEI is dead
  • Columbia, Venezuela, Panama, Mexico, Canada, and China appear to have gotten the message
  • illegal border crossings have essentially come to a stop
  • both Mexico and Canada promise significant increases in border security and their "actions" can be easily monitored, quantified
  • the worst of the worse criminals illegally in the country will go to Gitmo; new facility to be built that will double the current capacity at Gitmo
  • EU is getting the message that they need to pay their fair share
  • Zelenskyy knows the "blank check" days are over
  • Netanyahu arrives early this week to meet with Trump; first foreign leader to do so
  • US Blackhawk helicopter -- AA crash clearly a fallout from Obama / Biden leadership / actions; no blood on Trump's hands
    • will give Hespeth carte blanche to clean house at the Pentagon, US Army, and FAA
  • Trump has fired all senior leaders at FBI involved in "weaponization" of Obama/Biden enemies
  • foreign college students protesting for terrorist organizations and against Israel will have their visas revoked; one already has had her visa revoked;
  • White House press secretary a breath of fresh air
  • President Trump available to the press 24/7 it seems
  • no one has to worry about what happens if Trump gets that 3:00 a.m. phone call; he will probably be the first president to actually carry the "nuclear code" in his head; won't require that "briefcase"
  • All in two weeks.

So, tell me again, why the US equity markets crashed over the past three days. 

  • Last Friday, and today, Monday, February 3, 2025, investors just experienced the most incredible buying opportunity they might have this calendar year.

Breaking

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.38.

Active rigs: 37.

Three new permits, #41573 - #31575, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Foreman Butte (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for three Roosevelt Federal wells, NWNW 24-150-103, 
      • to be sited 571/575 FNL and 538 / 604 FWL

Five permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill, all confidential:
  • Sorenson, #38751, Sand Creek,
  • Clear Creek Federal, #38760, Westberg,
  • Clear Creek Federal, #38761, Westberg,
  • Barracuda, #39573, Sandrocks,
  • Fleck, #39574, Sandrocks,

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39211, BR, 2,116, Boxer 4C MB-ULW, McKenzie County;
  • 38939, CLR, 549, Harms West Federal 3-32HSL1, McKenzie;
  • 39315, CLR, 269, Quale Federal 3-1H2, McKenzie;
  • 39316, CLR, 893, Harms East Federal 1-33H, McKenzie County;

Change of operator:

  • From Iron Oil Operating to Kraken: about 50 wells; all in McKenzie Counties; following "family" names of wells involved:
    • Anderson (1),
    • Redwing (1),
    • Stocke (5),
    • Antelope (many),
    • Bear Butte (many),
    • Bowline (2),
    • Ellsworth (3),
    • Boxcar (1),

From AI:


I don't know if folks understand what AI can do, but based on my very, very, very limited experience, it is obvious that Sam Altman / OpenAI and Elon Musk / xAI are going to literally turn the US bureaucracy upside down. This stuff will be handed over to patriots still in the FBI; to US senators and representatives on "select committees"; and to his various czars. Not many stones will be left unturned. 


 
And that's just a start.

Summer Weather Has Returned To North Texas -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48464SUMMER.

Beautiful, beautiful weather here in north Texas. 

It is forecast to be sunny all week with temperatures in the high 70s and is forecast to hit 82°F on Thursday. If it hits 83°F that will be a record held since 1911! Then, Saturday, a high of 84°F is forecast.

1911: eighty-three years before Algore said we only had ten more years on earth if we didn't stop global warming. 

I'm so glad Algore wasn't convincing enough to keep from investing. The tell: the Obamas bought a McMansion on the coast. 

But, yes, winter is not quite over. We will cool down next week.

Everything's Bigger In Texas -- Second-Longest Conveyor To Move Sand In West Texas -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48463SHALE.

Link here. Original story at Texas Monthly with paywall.



Song Of The Year -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48462MUSIC.

Link here.

It gets tedious.

Video and presenters: Taylor Swift loved this song!!

Song of the year, lyrics:

[Intro] Psst, I see dead people
(Mustard on the beat, ho) 

[Verse 1] Ayy, Mustard on the beat, ho
Deebo any rap nigga, he a free throw
Man down, call an amberlamps, tell him, "Breathe, bro"
Nail a nigga to the cross, he walk around like Teezo
What's up with these jabroni-ass niggas tryna see
Compton? The industry can hate me, fuck 'em all and they mama
How many opps you really got?
I mean, it's too many options I'm finna pass on this body,
I'm John Stockton
Beat your ass and hide the Bible if God watchin'
Sometimes you gotta pop out and show niggas
Certified boogeyman, I'm the one that up the score with 'em
Walk him down, whole time, I
know he got some ho in him
Pole on him, extort shit, bully
Death Row on him
Say, Drake, I hear you like 'em young
You better not ever go to cell block one
To any bitch that talk to him and they in love Just make sure you hide your lil' sister from him
They tell me Chubbs the only one that get your hand-me-downs
And Party at the party playin' with his nose now
And Baka got a weird case, why is he around?
Certified Lover Boy? Certified pedophiles
Wop, wop, wop, wop, wop,
Dot, fuck 'em up
Wop, wop, wop, wop, wop,
I'ma do my stuff
Why you trollin' like a bitch?
Ain't you tired?
Tryna strike a chord and it's probably A minor

Suriname Update -- RBN Energy -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48462SURINAME.

From earlier:Guyana, Antilles, Wear Indies.

Reminder:

Link here.

So, this is what we have:

  • Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
  • Surinam: Apache and TTE.
  • Guyana: XOM.
  • Venezuela: CVX.

A reader alerted me to a Charles Kennedy article on Guyana, dated March 6, 2023. 

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Most Recent

RBN Energy: today, more recent -- Suriname sets its site on becoming major oil supplier with offshore boost. Archived.

As crude oil production surges off the coast of Guyana, its eastern neighbor, Suriname, has set off on its own mission to become a global oil supplier. With some onshore production active for decades, the tiny South American nation now has its sights set on developing its vast offshore reserves. While there have been some setbacks, its international partners are getting their plans back on track. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into what’s ahead for Suriname. 

We previously highlighted how Guyana has been a rising star (see Break My Stride) in the global crude market, even if it’s only a recent entrant. Guyana now has three crude grades to offer markets (see My Guy) since its first major oil discovery just a decade ago. The offshore Stabroek block’s only oil-producing area (yellow-shaded area in Figure 1 below) is churning out more than 650 Mb/d of oil from three projects in the reserve-rich Guyana-Suriname Basin (area within dashed-green line). Owners of these assets want to roughly double that volume by the end of 2027 with three more projects. It’s worth noting that in 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the underexplored areas of the Suriname-Guyana Basin held 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. But Guyana isn’t the only country with plans to develop those reserves.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block

Figure 1. The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block. Source: RBN

The Guyana-Suriname Basin stretches across three countries on the Atlantic coast of South America: Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The oil-rich formation has an onshore segment but is predominantly an offshore play. Suriname has been extracting minimal amounts of crude oil from the onshore basin since the 1980s but the former Dutch colony wants to raise its profile as a petroleum supplier with its offshore oil bonanza, mirroring its neighbor’s success. (Suriname’s maritime border indicated by dashed-pink line in Figure 1.)

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Guyana, Suriname

Re-posting from August 19, 2021. Link here.

Locator: 10010GUYANA.
Locator: 10010SURINAME.

March 2, 2024: how much oil in Guyana? Now estimated to be one-half trillion dollars. Link here.

February 27, 2024: Chevron-Hess $53 billion merger at risk; XOM and CNOOC claim right of first refusal to buy out Hess stake in Guyana. If XOM and/or CNOOC "win" that argument, there's really no reason for Chevron to pursue Hess, except for Bakken and DJ Basin.

September 8, 2023: update.

March 6, 2023: Guyana wants to bring in more majors

November 29, 2022: update here.

August 19, 2021: Guyana, Suriname oil drilling activity to jump. Link to Irina Slav.

**************************
Background



Guyana-Suriname Basin: rise from obscurity to super potential, WorldOil, May, 2021.

  • estimates of 10+ billion bbls of oil
  • estimates of 30 tera cubic feet of natural gas

THE EARLY EXPLORATION

Onshore exploration. In both Suriname and Guyana, oil seeps were known from the 1800s, into the 1900s. Exploration in Suriname discovered oil at a 160 m depth while drilling for water in a schoolyard in Calcutta Village.2 The onshore Tambaredjo oil field (15-17 oAPI oil) was discovered in 1968. First oil began in 1982. Satellite oil fields to Calcutta and Tambaredjo were added. These fields had an original STOOIP of 1 Bbbl of oil. Currently, these fields are producing around 16,000 bopd.2 Staatsolie’s crude is processed at Tout Lui Faut refinery, at 15,000 bpd, to produce diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, and bitumen.

Guyana did not have the same onshore success; since 1916, 13 wells have been drilled, but only two wells have shown oil.3 Onshore oil exploration in the 1940s produced geological studies in Takatu basin. Three wells were drilled between 1981 and 1993, all either dry or non-commercial. These wells confirmed the presence of thick black shale, Cenomanian-Turonian age (known as Canje Fm), equivalent to the La Luna formation in Venezuela.

Venezuela has a thriving oil exploration and production history.4 Drilling success dates back to 1908, first in the western part of the country with the Zumbaque 1 well,5 with production in Lake Maracaibo rising during WWI and into the 1920s and 1930s. Of course, the tar sands in the Orinoco Belt, discovered in 1936,6 have significantly impacted the oil reserves and resources, contributing to the 78 Bbbl of oil reserves; this reservoir gives Venezuela the current first position on reserves. La Luna formation (Cenomanian-Turonian) is a world-class source rock for much of this oil. La Luna7 is responsible for most of the oil found and produced from the Maracaibo basin and several others in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The source rock found offshore Guyana and Suriname has similar characteristics to those found in La Luna, and is the same age.

Offshore Guyana oil exploration: Shelf region. Exploration on the continental shelf began in earnest in 1967,7 with the Guyana Offshore-1 and -2 wells. A 15-year gap ensued until the Arapaima-1 was drilled, followed by Horseshoe-1 in 2000 and the 2012 wells, Eagle-1 and Jaguar-1. Six of these nine wells had either oil or gas shows; only the Abary-1, drilled in 1975, flowed oil (37 oAPI). Although the lack of any economic discovery was disappointing, these wells were very important, because they confirmed a functioning petroleum system was generating oil.

Offshore Suriname oil exploration: Shelf region. The story of exploration on the continental shelf in Suriname mirrors that of Guyana. Nine wells were drilled through 2011, three of which had oil shows; the others were dry. Again, the lack of economic discoveries was disappointing, but these wells confirmed a functioning petroleum system was generating oil.

ODP Leg 207 drilled five sites in 2003 on the Demerara Rise, which separates the Guyana-Suriname basin from offshore French Guiana. Very importantly, all five wells encountered the same Cenomanian-Turonian Canje Fm source rock found in Guyana and Suriname wells, which was a confirmation of the presence of a source rock as La Luna.

Much more at this link.

Guyana success.
ExxonMobil/Hess et al. announced in May 2015 the now-famous Liza-1 discovery well in Stabroek license, offshore Guyana (Liza-1 well12).
Upper Cretaceous turbidite sands are the reservoir.
The follow-up Skipjack-1 well, drilled in 2016, found no commercial hydrocarbons.
Through 2020, the Stabroek partners have announced a total of 18 discoveries, amounting to a gross recoverable resource over 8 Bbbl of oil (corporate ExxonMobil)!
The Stabroek partners solved the concerns about the seismic response to hydrocarbon-bearing versus water-bearing reservoirs (Hess Investor, 2018 Investor Day 8).
A deeper Albian age source rock has been confirmed in some wells.
Interestingly, ExxonMobil and partners found oil in a carbonate reservoir in the Ranger-1 well, announced in 2018. Evidence suggests that this is a carbonate bank that accumulated atop a subsiding volcano.
The Haimara-18 discovery, announced in February 2019 as a gas condensate discovery in 63 m of high-quality reservoir. Haimara-1 sits adjacent to the border between Stabroek, Guyana, and Block 58, Suriname.

From March 6, 2023, link here:

Locator: 10011GUYANA.

Tag: Guyana, Antilles, Wear Indies.

Reminder:

Link here.

So, this is what we have:

  • Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
  • Surinam: Apache and TTE.
  • Guyana: XOM.
  • Venezuela: CVX.

A reader alerted me to a Charles Kennedy article on Guyana today.  

I had forgotten that Hess partnered with XOM on Guyana.

Now we watch for Shell and and CVX bidding for Guyana; both have experience in this geographic area.

Guyana is tracked here at the sidebar at the right. That site needs to be updated.

Manic Monday -- And It Will Be Manic -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48461B.

Breaking: US to establish an American Wealth Sovereign Fund -- holy mackerel!

Breaking: Trump suspends increased tariffs on Mexico pending new positive news from the Mexican government. Last thing I heard: Mexico to send 10,000 troops along the border to stem the southern surge. Yes, President Trump while signing new EOs said the 10,000 troops will be based along the border permanently.

Breaking: Panama has stopped huge project with China after Marco Rubio's visit.

Breaking: Rubio could easily be our next US president -- this is best news ever -- the one-two punch -- Elon Musk stopped aid temporarily to sort things about; Rubin will open the portals in a step-wise, well-thought-out manner. US aid is going to come with conditions -- US aid won't come without conditions.

META to re-incorporate outside of Delaware: Texas is high on the list. Link here.


Investing
: a reader asked me late last night if I would be "investing" today (adding to my positions or starting new positions). My answer:

  • you betcha; and
  • I'm always fully invested.

Prediction

  • market volume will set records today
  • the same number of shares that are sold for every ticker will also equal the same number of shares bought

Local schools: students will get an additional two days "off" from school next year

  • school year will still remain the same length -- first day to last day, but students will get two extra days off
  • teachers will be school those days, as training days
  • I'm thrilled! some of the best public elementary schools in the country and they continue to innovate
  • by increasing length of day, the students will get same instructional time for full school year

Making a mountain out of a molehill:

  • 99% of this is political -- will not affect the average American at all:
    • take a look at what Canada will tax coming across the border: bourbon and peanut butter (LOL)
    • the worst example: analysts suggesting it will add $3,000 to the price of a car. Oh, really, if so, that means you're not buying cars from the "right countries" -- last I heard, no tariffs on South Korea or Japan or Taiwan (at least not yet, but that could change also)
  • perspective: we spent much of our adult lives in Europe -- the VAT (value-added tax) was horrendous -- much worse than the tariffs
    • VAT is added at every step in the manufacturing / sales process; each country assesses its own VAT
    • the average VAT is almost 22% -- meaning some European countries must be close to 30% VAT
  • and yes, Canada has a VAT also, though much, much lower than that in Europe
    • I never understood how the Europeans would/could put up with such a high VAT
  • and, just think if this all leads to lower federal income taxes for average Americans ...
  • by the way, overall prices for cars will decrease this way with Trump's new policies, yet to be announced. 

The mountain / molehill of cars coming from Canada -- quick, raise your hand if you are affected. This, amazingly, includes all the cars from BOTH Mexico and Canada -- I see two from Mexico; several from Canada -- and the top four from Canada are NOT American names:

Another mountain out of a molehill, link here:

I'm not sure if Justin Trudeau has read The Art of the Deal. But one can guess. He certainly doesn't seem to understand the oil market. 

Know what won't be affected by the tariffs? EGGS.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.46. WTI up 2.7% overnight; up $1.93.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, February 4, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • 39389, conf, CLR, Dalin 2-16H,
  • Monday, February 3, 2025: 4 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 50 for the year,
    • 40703, conf, CLR, Bohmbach FIU 16-26HSL,
  • Sunday, February 2, 2025: 3 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year,
    • 40455, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living Tr-156-98-2017H-5,
    • 39316, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 1-33H,
  • Saturday, February 1, 2025: 1 for the month, 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year,
    • 39315, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 3-1H2,

RBN Energy: from last week, a reminder, Trump's tariffs will hurt Canadian oil producers more than US refiners. Link here.

RBN Energy: today, more recent -- Suriname sets its site on becoming major oil supplier with offshore boost. Archived.

As crude oil production surges off the coast of Guyana, its eastern neighbor, Suriname, has set off on its own mission to become a global oil supplier. With some onshore production active for decades, the tiny South American nation now has its sights set on developing its vast offshore reserves. While there have been some setbacks, its international partners are getting their plans back on track. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into what’s ahead for Suriname. 

We previously highlighted how Guyana has been a rising star (see Break My Stride) in the global crude market, even if it’s only a recent entrant. Guyana now has three crude grades to offer markets (see My Guy) since its first major oil discovery just a decade ago. The offshore Stabroek block’s only oil-producing area (yellow-shaded area in Figure 1 below) is churning out more than 650 Mb/d of oil from three projects in the reserve-rich Guyana-Suriname Basin (area within dashed-green line). Owners of these assets want to roughly double that volume by the end of 2027 with three more projects. It’s worth noting that in 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the underexplored areas of the Suriname-Guyana Basin held 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. But Guyana isn’t the only country with plans to develop those reserves.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block

Figure 1. The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block. Source: RBN

The Guyana-Suriname Basin stretches across three countries on the Atlantic coast of South America: Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The oil-rich formation has an onshore segment but is predominantly an offshore play.

Suriname has been extracting minimal amounts of crude oil from the onshore basin since the 1980s but the former Dutch colony wants to raise its profile as a petroleum supplier with its offshore oil bonanza, mirroring its neighbor’s success. (Suriname’s maritime border indicated by dashed-pink line in Figure 1.) 

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Other Energy-Related News

ISO-NE, link here:


MMF: my favorite chart, most recent data, w/w, link here.