Time To Review Disinflation Vs Deflation -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45054ECON.

Definitions:

Updates

July 10, 2023, link here:

July 10, 2023: link here.

July 10, 2023: link here.

Original Post

Headline, China, link here: 

Unless I missed it, neither word was used in this article, neither deflation or disinflation.

Disinflation is generally good.

Deflation is generally really, really, really bad.

What we're seeing here is deflation in a country where there are millions (fact-check) of unemployed males. 

I need to go back and read the chapter on China in Peter Zeihan's The End Of The World Is Just Beginning, c. 2022.

Norway: Poster Child For Citizens Converting To EVs; Oil Demand Is Higher Than Ten Years Ago When First EVs Sold In Norway -- What Does This Mean For US? July, 2023

Locator: 45053EVS.

Link here.

This article (and/or the data contained within) gets so little "play." 

This "factoid" simply has not sunk in; this "factoid" simply does not sink in.

My hunch: we see the same headlines / the same attempt to rationalize this ten years from now.

Population:

• US: 335 million
• Norway: 5 million

The article begins

There are two main reasons for this: i) it takes time for the share of emission-free cars sold to translate into a meaningful gain in the share of the vehicle stock, and, ii) there has been rapid growth in demand for oil products unrelated to transportation.

The first of these reasons—slow fleet turnover—is easily underestimated. Despite soaring sales of zero-emission cars, they accounted just for 12% of the total car fleet at the end of 2020, while gasoline cars accounted for around 43% and diesel cars for about 45%. In 2010, gasoline cars’ share was over 71%, and diesel cars were at 28%. In addition, the total number of private cars rose from 2.3mn in 2010 to 2.8mn in 2020. Gasoline vehicle sales fell by 37% from 1.55mn to 0.95mn, while diesel vehicle sales rose by 55% from 0.80mn to 1.25mn over the same period. Zero-emission cars rose from 2,000 to 0.34m units.

This has translated into gasoline demand falling by around 34% over the last ten years, while diesel demand has risen by about 7.5%. Diesel demand also includes trucks, buses, vans and tractors.

And then goes on from there to try to make their case.

From my perspective, they failed to make their case.

Buzz On The Street -- WT -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45052OIL.

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WTI

It all comes down to this, reading the headlines:

• price of oil comes down to this: fear of recession vs cost of keeping oil in storage 
• keeping oil in storage keeps getting more expensive as JPow keeps raising rates
• backwardation: oil companies will get more for their oil if they sell now rather than waiting until six months from now
• as oil companies release/sell more of their oil now, they are setting "us" up for a shortage of oil six months from now

Me? My thesis? Outside of major geopolitical events, we're never going to see another shortage of oil in my lifetime.

I think oil company CEOs know that and they're going to start selling oil sooner than later.  

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Graduation Photo

Three weeks.

California high desert.

Soloed at "first opportunity."

Investing: Oil.

Locator: 45051OIL. 

Nothing new here. None of these posts have been updated. Simply some formatting, bookkeeping. 

Integrated oils:

• all majors, market action: daily.
  
• XOM: link here.
• CVX: link here.
• COP: link here.

Moving no up:

• Devon (DVN): link here.

Smaller plays:

• Coterra: link here. 
• Enerplus: link here.
  

Shale: link here.

Investing In "Oil" -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45050INV.

When blogging about "investing in oil" on this blog, there are two timelines: a) near- to mid-term; and, b) long term.

Near- to mid-term: one to five years. Again, investing, not trading. I'm not a trader. 

These are definitions:

• investing: expectations that one's returns will be as good, if not better, than other sectors in which one could be invested. 
• trading: would be trying to make enough money to send Sophia to college by actively buying low, selling high, repeat, with cycles lasting one to six months.  This is not what I do. This is a definition
  

Long-term: a rolling 30-year horizon.

Theses:

• my long term thesis: over a rolling 30-year horizon, "oil" is a value play. "Oil" is in the same "bucket" with utilities, bonds, money market funds. Investing in "oil" for the long term seems a lot like re-arranging chairs on a cruise ship.  Long term, "we" will never run out affordable, accessible oil. Crude oil will always be "in demand," but "oil" growth will barely keep up with overall energy demand (renewable, fossil, hydro, nuclear).

• my short term thesis: "oil" remains a great trading sector; successful traders are nimble. Shares pretty much track the price of oil and economic cycles, the latter closely tied to "the Fed." Unlike other sectors I just don't see a lot of FOMO, YOLO, and/or MOJO. Saudi Arabia plays an outsized role in affecting the price of oil, but as time goes on, Saudi will play a smaller and smaller role.

• to put things in perspective: the current BRK is a value play but perhaps with a bit more growth than utilities, bonds, oil, and/or money market funds.
  

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Supporting My Theses
(Long Term and Long Term)

Theses:

• Saudi Arabia plays an outsized role in affecting the price of oil, but as time goes on, Saudi will play a smaller and smaller role.
• "we" will never run out of affordable, accessible crude oil. 
  

Today's headline:

Mano A Mano -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45049B. 

 Two wells drilled the same year, 1245 feet apart, same field:

• 19200, 539, Crescent Point Energy, State 1-36H-156-98, Wheelock, t11/10; cum 89K 5/23; original operator: Anschuutz Exploration; completion: 13 stages; 643K lbs proppant; volume 28,849 bbls;
• 17843, 1,981/IA, Hess, Roon Viall 1-25H, Wheelock, t5/10, cum 244K 10/22; off line while neighboring wells are being completed; completion: 30 stages; 3.55 million lbs proppant; volume 59,826 bbls;

Much could be said. "This" has been going on for fifteen years. Yes, much could be said.

The map:

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Jiu-Jitsu Tournameent
Dallas -- July 8, 2023
A Silver Medal

Sophia milestones:

• July, 2022: starts Jiu-Jitsu
• March, 2022: first competition, white belt, bronze medal
• March, 2022: second competition, white belt, gold medal
• June 28, 2023: awarded grey belt
• July 7, 2023: competition practice; tells coach she wants a silver medal to complete her collection
• July 8, 2023: silver medal; Sophia has been a grey belt for two weeks; her opponent, a full year;

The Ron Viall Wells

Locator: 45048RONVIALL.

July 9, 2023: more Ron Viall wells are coming off confidential list this next week.
one well of interest:

• 17843, 1,981, Hess, Ron Viall 1-25H, Wheelock, t5/10; cum 244K 10/22; off line as new wells are being completed

The maps:

OPRA -- New Home Page For Browsers -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45047INV.

Home page for tech: link here.

For the archives. No recommendation. Usual disclaimer applies.

This is a few days old; finally getting it posted. For me, this says more about NVDA than OPRA.

Link here.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45046B.

The wells:

• 39391, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda 4-29-32-158N-100W-MBH, Church, no production data,
• 39358, conf, CLR, Vance 5-14H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
• 39392, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 3-20-17-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
• 39351, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 2-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
• 37921, conf, BR, Parrish 2B TFH, Pershing, no production data,
• 39393, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda 3-29-17-158N-100W-MBH, Church, no production data,
• 39352, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 3-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
• 38684, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513H-3, Wheelock,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2023	8243	16877
4-2023	17999	37868
3-2023	14149	32195
2-2023	22692	70245
1-2023	22675	24778

• 37922, conf, BR, Boxstone 1A TFH-ULW, North Fork, no production data,
• 39394, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 2-20-17-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
• 38853, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21H, Sanish

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2023	20681	25880
4-2023	23776	26815
3-2023	24184	18863
2-2023	21493	16031
1-2023	5501	4081

• 37923, conf, BR, Boxstone 1B MBH-ULW, North Fork, no production data,
• 37841, conf, Lime Rock, State B 3-25-36H-143-97, Fayette, no production data,
• 37924, conf, BR, Boxer 2A TFH, Pershing, no production data,
• 39395, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 2-29-32-158N-100W-MBH-LL, Church, no production data,
• 38683, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513HH-4, Wheelock,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2023	26255	49207
4-2023	31265	60508
3-2023	16310	28726
2-2023	25361	62399
1-2023	35121	71572

• 37404, conf, Liberty Resources, Esther 158-93-28-33-20MBH, Enget Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2023	10791	15466
4-2023	15518	21499
3-2023	18055	21590
2-2023	19004	20131
1-2023	16927	18490

• 37364, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson 158-93-27-34-1MBH, Enget Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2023	11316	14074
4-2023	15741	19469
3-2023	21863	24877
2-2023	16169	19505
1-2023	17631	21239

• 39175, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 4-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
• 38944, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-32-29H, Sather Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2023	9997	9219
4-2023	14693	13803
3-2023	15769	14520
2-2023	17329	0
1-2023	10282	11164

• 39442, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 5H, Burg, no production data,
• 39176, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
• 39441, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 4H, Fertile Valley, no production data,
• 39178, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45045B.

Wednesday, July 19, 2023: 76 for the month; 184 for the quarter, 439 for the year
39391, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda 4-29-32-158N-100W-MBH,
39358, conf, CLR, Vance 5-14H,

Tuesday, July 18, 2023: 74 for the month; 182 for the quarter, 437 for the year
None.

Monday, July 17, 2023: 74 for the month; 182 for the quarter, 437 for the year
39392, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 3-20-17-158N-100W-MBH,

Sunday, July 16, 2023: 73 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 436 for the year
39351, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 2-13H,
37921, conf, BR, Parrish 2B TFH,

Saturday, July 15, 2023: 71 for the month; 179 for the quarter, 434 for the year
39393, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda 3-29-17-158N-100W-MBH,
39352, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 3-13H,
38684, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513H-3,
37922, conf, BR, Boxstone 1A TFH-ULW,

Friday, July 14, 2023: 67 for the month; 175 for the quarter, 430 for the year
39394, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 2-20-17-158N-100W-MBH,
38853, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21H,
37923, conf, BR, Boxstone 1B MBH-ULW,
37841, conf, Lime Rock, State B 3-25-36H-143-97,

Thursday, July 13, 2023: 63 for the month; 171 for the quarter, 426 for the year
37924, conf, BR, Boxer 2A TFH,

Wednesday, July 12, 2023: 62 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 425 for the year
39395, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 2-29-32-158N-100W-MBH-LL,
38683, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513HH-4,

Tuesday, July 11, 2023: 60 for the month; 168 for the quarter, 423 for the year
37404, conf, Liberty Resources, Esther 158-93-28-33-20MBH,
37364, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson 158-93-27-34-1MBH,

Monday, July 10, 2023: 58 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 421 for the year
39175, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 4-13H,
38944, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-32-29H,

Sunday, July 9, 2023: 56 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 419 for the year
39442, conf,  Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 5H,
39176, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H,

Saturday, July 8, 2023: 54 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 417 for the year
39441, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 4H,
39178, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H,