Groundhog Day -- Keystone XL: At Least Another Six Months -- State Department Will Delay Decision Another Six Months

Updates

June 10, 2019: despite court win, no closer to completion.

July 30, 2018: US State Department gives new Nebraska route "positive" review. We've been here before. It actually got to President Obama's desk before he killed the project. After killing the project, Hillary came out against the Keystone XL also. So, we've been here before. The Nebraska Supreme Court is still hearing the case and promises to make a ruling by the end of this year (2018) or next year (2019). Ruth Bader Ginsberg, 85 years old, says she plans to remain on the US Supreme Court for another five years so she can rule on the Keystone XL when the project reaches the highest court in 2022.

November 20, 2017: Nebraska regulators approve 3 - 2 the "concept" that TransCanada can build the Keystone XL pipeline through their state .. but not where the company had planned. Back to square one. Even if TransCanada agrees to the new route, what's not to say that the Nebraska state supreme court won't step in and stop the whole thing? All this "excitement" that the pipeline has been approved is grossly misplaced.

March 29, 2017: connecting the dots. Not quite a "commentary." 

March 24, 2017: Trump administration approves Keystone XL. Nebraska has not approved the new route; won't even get to the issue until September, 2017, the earliest. 

November 10, 2015: with regard to the Keystone, winners: Warren Buffett's BNSF, Venezuela, CBR in general, Enbridge. Losers: Canada, future large pipeline projects, the American public, Nebraska taxpayers, those who wait at RR crossings. 

November 6, 2015: SecState John Kerry (who served in Vietnam) kills the Keystone. President Obama says regardless of climate change issues, oil is so inexpensive now, the Keystone is not needed for national security. Very, very clever. Sort of a "present" vote. Obama/US public don't understand US refining; heavy oil; light oil; and why the decision to kill the Keystone was all about "saving" Saudi, Iraq, Iran at the expense of Canada. 

October/November 2015: Obama says he will decide Keystone issue before he leaves office.

February 22, 2014: Rigzone says the Nebraska PSC won't vote on the new Keystone XL route for at least seven months. This pushes the decision into 2015.

February 19, 2014: judge rules that the Nebraska governor did not have the authority to approve the new route for the Keystone XL 2.0 North. Back to square one. LOL. 

February 3, 2013: from Petroleum News, all of a sudden, the Canadian government, others, getting nervous -- this US administration might not approve the Keystone XL. 

However, what should have been the most welcome development for the Canadian government in more than four years of raging battles over the project and its own desire to open up a huge new market on the U.S. Gulf Coast for oil sands crude has instead turned gloomy.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who seldom comments on natural resource matters, told reporters Jan. 27 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that Obama’s inaugural speech to launch his second term does not bode well for the pipeline.

By pledging to combat climate change, emphasizing that a “failure to do so would betray our children and future generations,” and insisting the U.S. should be a leader in sustainable energy, Obama had effectively eroded the outlook for Keystone XL, Flaherty suggested.

“I had reason for optimism before the election that the president would approve (the pipeline) were he re-elected, but his (inaugural) speech was not encouraging,” he said.

If the 830,000 barrels per day XL pipeline is scuttled it removes the prospect of including about 100,000 bpd of Bakken crude on the system to Cushing, Okla., and accessing TransCanada’s Gulf Coast project to carry 700,000 bpd from Cushing to Nederland, Texas, starting late this year.

I still don't believe any North Dakota Bakken oil is going to be put into the Keystone XL without a huge price discount.

I think the announcement delaying a decision for six months was a political trial balloon: the administration will see how much blow-back it gets. If it doesn't get much blow-back, the Keystone XL is dead. As far as I know, there are not many US voters living in Canada. I think this is a win-win for the president: his faux environmental base doesn't want the Keystone XL; and, no one in the US really cares.

It will also be a nice feather in the new SecState's cap. Sort of like President Nixon going to China.

Original Post 

Groundhog Day is tomorrow, Saturday, February 2, 2013, just in time for this post. I can't make this stuff up.  

I believe when we last left "As The World Turns," we were on episode 49.  I could be wrong; I have lost count. But like reruns in syndication, it really doesn't matter.

Now episode 50 of "As The World Turns" in which Bill Murray plays the president of the United States, and Stephen Tobolowsky plays the part of TransCanada's CEO:


Click here for yet another ridiculous excuse ...

The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone XL oil pipeline will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official said, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands.

"We're talking the beginning of summer at the earliest," said the source, who did not want to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the TransCanada Corp project, which has been pending for more than four and a half years. "It's not weeks until the final decision. It's months."

I have no dog in this fight. But this continues to be great news for the Bakken, for Enbridge, for the crude-by-rail folks, for Warren Buffett, for the US oil and gas industry, for Saudi Arabia, for OPEC, actually for everybody except the Canadians. Some people even suggest that TransCanada is better off not getting this pipeline approved. Again, remember: Bakken oil was never going to be put in the Keystone XL pipeline. This pipeline is only about Canadian oil and politics.

When gasoline starts hitting $4.00/gallon or more this spring/summer, a lot of folks will blame this on the Keystone XL delay, but the Keystone XL being delayed a few more months will have no effect on the price of oil.

I assume the only reason the President is delaying the decision is because he can. Next week: "I'm Chevy Chase, and you're not."

For The Keystone XL: Now It's The Texas Wetlands

Episode 49 of "As The World Turns": In tonight's episode, TransCanada tweaks the southern pipeline plan to a avoid clash with the EPA.

Application for Keystone XL 2.01S will tweak Keystone XL 2.0S. The pipeline will now go under the wetlands rather than across the wetlands.

TransCanada submitted its new application in April, after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency raised concerns about the effect the original plan would have on wetlands along the Texas Gulf Coast and called for a more rigorous review process. Under the new plan, the company will drill under the wetlands rather than run across them, eliminating the need for EPA involvement, said Vicki Dixon, regulatory program manager for the southwestern division of the Army Corps of Engineers.

Episode 48 of "As The World Turns" is here.

Bridging the Gap: TransCanada Submits The Presidential Permit Application For Keystone XL 2.0N

Episode 48 in which the President gets a do-over:

TransCanada has submitted a Presidential Permit application to the U.S. Department of State for the Keystone XL Pipeline from the U.S./Canada border in Montana to Steele City, Nebraska. TransCanada will supplement that application with an alternative route in Nebraska as soon as that route is selected. TransCanada expects to begin construction of Keystone XL in the first quarter of 2013, with completion slated for late 2014 or early 2015. Construction of the $2.3 bln Gulf Coast Project (Cushing, Oklahoma to Nederland, Texas) is expected to begin this summer, with an in-service date of mid to late 2013. -- Yahoo!InPlay.

Keystone XL 2.0S will be from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf Coast. The application noted above will carry the pipeline from the Canadian border to Steele City, Nebraska, which leaves a 300-mile gap to Cushing. If I am reading this correctly, that gap will be addressed in a "supplement" to that application. The gap will be known as the Keystone XL 2.0Gap, or the Keystone-Nebraska Compromise.


An Issue of Trust

Episode 47 here.

TransCanada Reveals New Route -- Still Goes Over The Aquifer

Episode 47: Link here. Because I am traveling I cannot provide usual trailer/preview of this week's episode of As The World Turns.

The proposed new route still goes over the aquifer — which underlies much of Nebraska — but it avoids those areas of the Sandhills where groundwater lies under porous grasslands extremely close to the surface.

The LA Times story is excellent; go to the link. This is the only link I could find that had an easily-readable comparison map view; all other links had a very "busy" map that didn't easily compare the previous route with the new proposed route. MSNBC says the new route is likely to be enthusiastically supported by the Nebraskans.

By the end of the article, we learn that the Sandhills area is now found across the entire state of Nebraska according to some.  And so it goes.

The map. 

Episode 46: "Pipeline: The Theme Song."

Addendum to original post: likely 2012 timeline --

• April 20: new route proposed
• August 20: Nebraska state study concluded; cost, $3 million; recommends approval
• September 20: close vote but approved by Nebraska legislature
• September 30: Nebraska governor signs off on new route; accepts payment for study from co
• October 20: SecState Hillary Clinton says her agency's recommendation will be released soon
• November 6: SecState Hillary Clinton says recommendation will be released later this week

As The World Turns: Episode 46, "Pipeline: The Theme Song"

Tonight's episode of the surprise cable television hit, the adult soap, Keystone XL: "Pipeline: The Theme Song."

Tonight the theme song for Keystone XL is introduced, because very little else happens.

Spoiler alert! 

TransCanada says it has submitted a proposal for a new route through Nebraska for the disputed Keystone XL oil pipeline.

Details of the new route were not immediately available. A spokeswoman for the State Department said officials had not received notification of a new route. 

In tonight's episode the TransCanada board of directors entertains us with "Pipeline" to divert our attention from the fact that we still don't have any more information than we did last week. The Nebraska Philharmonic sits back and listens.





Episode 45: "Under Pressure."

As The World Turns: Episode 45, "Under Pressure"

Tonight's episode of the surprise cable television hit, the adult soap, Keystone XL: "Under Pressure."

The Nebraska legislature, under increasing pressure to do something .... well ... does something.

Spoiler alert!

Nebraska’s legislature passed legislation on Apr. 11 allowing the state’s Department of Environmental Quality to study a new proposed route for TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline.

LB 1161 passed by 44 to 5 votes, more than the two-thirds required, and suspends portions of an earlier pipeline siting law enacted late last year.

It was nice to note that 44-5 is more than two-thirds.

In tonight's episode the Speaker of the Nebraska legislature is played by Freddie Mercury. The sergeant-at-arms is played by David Bowie.

The opening crowd scenes are Nebraskans cheering that the TransCanada pipeline is one step closer to reality.



Opening lyrics:

Mm ba ba de
Um bum ba de
Um bu bu bum da de
Why don't we give it one more chance?
Pressure pushing down on me
Pressing down on you no man ask for
Under pressure - that burns a building down
Splits a family in two
Puts people on streets
Um ba ba be
Um ba ba be
De day da
Ee day da - that's o.k.

[Seriously: if this bill was simply to allow a government agency to conduct a new study, how long is this whole process going to take? If it's not a sham study, it has to take at least a year to do a comprehensive study. And 5 voted against it, even though TransCanada is going to end up paying for it.]

Episode 44: "The $2 Million Heist"

As The World Turns: Episode 44, "The $2 Million Heist"

Tonight's episode of the new cable television adult soap, Keystone XL: "The $2 Million Heist."

A bill that would allow Nebraska to restart a review of the Keystone XL pipeline project's route inched closer to final passage Thursday, with a requirement that the state's environmental agency hold at least one public hearing before releasing its recommendation.

The bill that advanced through a second-round legislative vote would also force pipeline developer TransCanada to reimburse the state for the cost of the study, which could reach $2 million.

In tonight's episode the Nebraska governor will be played by Mike Myers.

Why stop there? Why not "one hundred billion dollars"?




Spoiler alert!

Gov. Dave Heineman would have final say on the route, and his approval would give TransCanada eminent domain power before they receive a federal permit. If he doesn't certify the route, the proposal would go to an independent state commission that regulates utilities.

Episode 43: "We've Got A Secret"

As The World Turns

Tonight's episode of the new cable television adult soap, Keystone XL: "We've Got a Secret."

The developer of the Keystone XL pipeline has identified a new corridor through Nebraska that avoids the environmentally sensitive Sandhills, but a spokesman says the company won't yet release its proposal.

In tonight's episode Jack Nicholson reprises his role as president of the United States (see Mars Attack).

Spoiler alert!

TransCanada spokesman Shawn Howard told The Associated Press the Canadian pipeline company has identified a rough corridor, but not a specific route, through which the pipeline could run.

Howard said the proposal will be revealed during public hearings set by the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality, if a state review is allowed to proceed.

Stay tuned.  The critically-acclaimed soap is being shown on an ad hoc basis (schedule subject to change) on Al Gore's Current TV cable network. Keith Olberman Eliot Spitzer is this evening's guest host introducing the episode.