So Much For Caviar -- BloombergBusinessweek

Not yet on the net; watch for it later this week. A two-page article on how the energy revolution in the US is affecting Russia -- "Rising energy production in the US is testing Russia's economic model. Will vladimir Putin survive the challenge?

Whatever happened to Jane Nielson who said there was "some" oil in the Bakken, but not much? The Bakken was about a lot more than "how much oil was there." It was a laboratory for geologists and roughnecks. And it was a laboratory for free market capitalism with a pro-business legislature in session.

I can't wait for the BloombergBusinessweek article to be on-line. Another eye-opener. It's all about LNG.

Watch for it.

For Jane. 

The Syrian Missile Crisis

The theme song:

Under Pressure, Queen

Week 35: August 25, 2013 -- August 31, 2013

Deals
Petro-Hunt sells 17,000 net acres to Whiting, $260 million cash; the deal;

Operations
NDIC hearing dockets, September, 2013
EOG: requesting authorization for more than 604 wells in three cases
QEP reports four huge wells
Several huge Statoil wells
Is Crescent Point Energy pulling out of North Dakota?
Oakdale field is updated; one well, less than two years old, closing in on one million bbls

CBR
"CBR Shift" squeezes pipeline companies
BNSF to add second stretch of mainline track, Ray to Tioga, 12 miles

Pipeline
Enbridge increasing capacity by more than one million bopd

Fracking
Government looking at new rule to regulate mining of fracking sand

Miscellaneous
The Bakken is a lot bigger than we thought
Legacy fund
Schools maxed out in the Bakken oil patch
Another Minnesota company sets up operations in North Dakota (Devils Lake)

Other formations/plays
Update on the North Dakota Spearfish
Natural gas production to increase 8x from the Marcellus

Random Look At Three EOG Cases On The NDIC September, 2013, Hearing Dockets Agenda -- Rough Look

Long-time and regular readers may want to compare these EOG cases with the EOG case 11939 in the December, 2009, NDIC hearing.  In that case, EOG was looking to permit 570 wells, if I counted correctly.

In the hearing dockets to be held in September, 2013, I count, in the three cases below, 604 permits that EOG could be requesting in the future.

Case 21007: Application of EOG Resources, Inc. for an order authorizing the drilling,
completing and producing of a total of six wells on each existing overlapping 1280-acre spacing unit comprised of:
Sec. 31, T.155N., R.90W. and Sec. 6, T.154N., R.90W.;
Sec. 32, T.155N., R.90W. and Sec. 5,T.154N., R.90W.;
Secs. 2 and 11;
Secs. 4 and 9;
Secs. 5 and 8;
Secs. 10 and 15;
Secs. 14 and 23;
Secs. 16 and 21;
Secs. 17 and 20;
Secs. 21 and 28;
10
Secs. 23 and 26, T.154N., R.90W.;
Secs. 1 and 12;
Secs. 5 and 6;
Secs.12 and 13;
Secs. 16 and 17;
Secs. 19 and 20;
Secs. 19 and 30;
Secs. 28 and 29; and
Secs. 33 and 34, T.153N., R.90W.;
Sec. 25, T.153N., R.90W. and Sec. 30, T.153N., R.89W;
10
Secs. 1 and 2;
Secs. 11 and 14;
Secs. 14 and 15;
Secs. 25 and 26, T.152N., R.91W.;
Secs. 1 and 2;
Secs. 23 and 24;
Secs. 27 and 28;
Secs. 28 and 29;
Secs. 29 and 30;
Secs. 32 and 33; and
10
Secs. 34 and 35, T.152N., R.90W.;
Sec. 12, T.151N., R.91W. and Sec. 7,T.151N., R.90W.;
Secs. 17 and 18;
Secs. 21 and 28;
Secs. 28 and 33;
Secs.31 and 32; and
Secs. 32 and 33, T.151N., R.90W.;
7
37

and six wells on each of the following existing 1920-acre spacing units:

Secs. 27, 34 and 35, T.155N.,R.90W.;
Secs. 32 and 33, T.155N., R.90W. and Sec. 4, T.154N., R.90W.;
Secs. 11, 13 and 14; and
Secs. 19, 29 and 30; T.154N., R.90W.;
Sec. 32,T.154N., R.90W. and Secs. 4 and 5, T.153N., R.90W.;
Secs. 35 and 36,T.154N., R.90W. and Sec. 1, T.153N., R.90W.;
Secs. 9, 10 and 15;
Secs. 9,15 and 16;
Secs. 17, 20 and 21;
Secs. 21, 22 and 27;
10
Secs. 22, 23 and 26;
Secs. 26, 35 and 36;
Secs. 27, 28 and 34;
Secs. 29, 32 and 33; and
Secs. 30, 31 and 32, T.153N., R.90W.;
Secs. 25 and 36, T.153N., R.90W. and Sec.31, T.153N., R.89W.;
Secs. 11, 12 and 13;
Secs. 23, 24 and 25; and
Secs. 26, 35 and 36, T.152N., R.91W.;
Sec. 1, T.152N., R.91W. and Secs. 6 and7, T.152N., R.90W.;
10
Sec. 12, T.152N., R.91W. and Secs. 7 and 18,T.152N., R.90W.;
Secs. 13 and 24, T.152N., R.91W. and Sec. 19, T.152N.,R.90W.;
Sec. 36, T.152N., R.91W. Sec. 31, T.152N., R.90W. and Sec. 6, T.151N., R.90W.;
Secs. 4, 5 and 9;
Secs. 5, 6 and 8;
Secs. 8, 16 and 17;
Secs. 11, 12 and 13;
Secs. 17, 20 and 21;
Secs. 18, 19 and 20;
Secs. 21, 22and 27; Secs. 26, 35 and 36; and
10
Secs. 30, 31 and 32, T.152N., R.90W.;
Sec. 1, T.152N., R.90W. and Secs. 6 and 7, T.152N., R.89W.;
Secs. 13 and24, T.152N., R.90W. and Sec. 19, T.152N., R.89W.;
Secs. 33 and 34,T.152N., R.90W. and Sec. 3, T.151N., R.90W.;
Sec. 1, T.151N., R.91W.and Secs. 6 and 7, T.151N., R.90W.;
Sec. 13, T.151N., R.91W. and Secs.18 and 19, T.151N., R.90W.;
Sec. 24, T.151N., R.91W. and Secs. 19 and 30, T.151N., R.90W.;
Secs. 25 and 36, T.151N., R.91W. and Sec. 31,T.151N., R.90W.;
Secs. 3, 4 and 10;
Secs. 4, 5 and 9;
10
Secs. 5, 8 and 9;
and Secs. 8, 16 and 17, T.151N., R.90W.;
and Secs. 24 and 25, T.151N.,R.91W. and Sec. 30, T.151N., R.90W.
3
43

43 + 37 = 80 drilling units
6 wells each = 480 wells


21008, EOG, Van Hook-Bakken, 5 wells on each of 2 320-acre units; 7 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; 7 wells on an existing 1920-acre unit; 7 wells on each of 3 1600-acre units; Mountrail (10, 7, 8, 21 = 46 wells)

21009, EOG, Stanley-Bakken 6 wells on 4 1280-acre units; 6 wells on each of 9 1920-acre units; Mountrail
(24, 54 = 78 wells)

These three cases: 480 + 46 + 78 = 604 wells.

Saturday Morning News, Views, And Links -- Bullsh*t -- Part III

Update

September 5, 2013: The Wall Street Journal, in a front page story, reports that automobile sales are surging to a pre-slump level of sales. If one were watching the tea leaves for the past 12 months one could have seen this coming. The CNBC reporter below must still be under the Geico rock.

Later, 7:30 pm: a much better story about America's love affair with the automobile is in the current issue of BloombergBusinessweek, Sept 2 - 8, 2013. I don't believe the articles are on the newsstand any more. In "The Boomer Car Boom," BBW reports that "people 55 and older have replaced younger folks as the top purchasers of new autos." For me, that 3-second sound bite is all about the economy and nothing about "the American love affair with automobiles." So let's look at some data points from the article:

• graying boomers have replaced the 35- to 44-year-old age group, the most likely to buy four years ago.
• There's a strong psychological motive driving boomers back to the  the dealer's lot: the car defined the boomers growing up; a 20-year-old doesn't see the car the same way
• 2011: 79 percent of those 20 - 24 had a driver's license
• 1983: 92 percent between 20 - 24 had a driver's license
• numbers reversed for older folks
• in 2011, 93 percent of those 60 - 64 had a driver's license
• 1983, 84 percent between 60 - 64 had a driver's license

Nothing in the article suggests car sales have anything to do with how much folks like cars; it's all about the widening gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots." At least that's how I see it.
 

Original Post

This story, being reported by CNBC, is a re-run. They're run this story before, several months ago. I guess this is an update.

It's all bullsh*t. Or bullshit if anyone is having trouble with the missing vowel.

This is being reported:

So, how to explain the fact that even as the economy finally is showing real signs of recovery the number of miles driven continues to decline. That report from the Federal Highway Administration is just the latest indication that Americans may be falling out of love with their automobiles.

In its report released this week, the agency said the number of vehicle miles traveled-VMT in the lingo of the transportation world-continued dropping during the first half of 2013. If the past were prologue, the numbers would have rebounded at least slightly to reflect the national rise in employment and income.

In a study earlier this month, researchers from the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center found that the number of miles individuals are driving has been declining sharply in recent years. That figure peaked at an average 900 miles per month in July 2004. By July 2012, it was down to 820 a month, a figure the researchers hadn't seen since the final years of the last millennium. 

For argument's sake, let's assume ... not yet.

First this: the writer makes the basic mistake that the economy is improving, more people are returning to work. He is obviously still under the Geico rock. Recent stories abound of the 30 million (or is it 60 million?) Americans that have dropped out of the labor force. The jobless numbers are unchanged for the past four years; if one can show improvement, one can show misreporting.

The author blew it: in bold above --  Americans may be falling out of love with their automobiles.

The government numbers did not say that all; the government numbers said folks were driving less, on average.

For argument's sake: let's assume the writer is correct. Americans are driving less miles. If that is accurate (and not simply due to being out of work), it simply means, that Americans are driving less. In fact, it doesn't even mean they are falling out of love of driving.

But for sure, there is nothing to suggest that they are falling out of love with their automobiles. Maybe they are falling out of love of driving (but I doubt it).

I don't drive very much. I hate driving in town. But I pay for four cars (one of which I never drive; two of which I seldom drive; and one of which I use to transport the granddaughters to swim lessons and back (four miles roundtrip).

I love cars. And I love road trips. But I digress. Where was I?

Oh, yes. For argument's sake: let's assume the writer is correct. Americans are driving less miles. If that is accurate (and not simply due to being out of work), it simply means, at most, Americans are driving less. I love hamburgers, and I love marbled steak. And I love French Fries. But I'm eating less of all of those for reasons other than lack of a change in taste. Likewise, just because Americans are driving less does not mean they love it less.

I am saving this article for the archives. It will come in useful when the new automobile sales records continue to be reported. We've already seen record sales over the past few months and this will continue, with or without O'BamaCare taxing the heck out of Americans.

Next week, we will probably read another story about the record number of Teslas being sold. To Americans. Who hate driving. Whose love affair with the automobile is waning.

Yeah. Right. Bullshit.

(Next time you drive down the interstate, see if you can see the old highway that the interstate replaced. Yes, the two-lane highway that curved to miss every little creek and gully, and then compare it to the straight interstate. My hunch is that in addition to absolutely everything else, routes between point A and point B have gotten shorter. People may have learned it makes more sense to live closer to where they work. They may have taken telecommuting. No, Americans may or may not be driving less, but they haven't fallen out of love of driving, and they certainly haven't fallen out of love of the automobile. If you doubt me, join me here at Starbucks and look at the number of late model SUVs in the parking lot and the luxury cars going through the drive-through.)

(My hunch is this story was also a televised CNBC story: one more reason I'm glad I don't have television. Smile.)

(It appears people are spending MORE time in their automobiles, just driving less miles, as this congestion-by-city table purports. Look how many hours folks in Atlanta, Georgia, sit in their automobiles, going nowhere. LOL.)

(I assume that the writer also feels that because fewer people are working than before -- as a percentage -- people are also getting tired of making money. LOL.)

So Many Story Lines -- "CBR Shift" Squeezes Pipeline Companies

The Financial Post is reporting:

The tug-of-war between railroads and pipelines in North American oilfields is only just getting started.

In recent months, the popularity of moving crude on tracks has sapped commercial support for new pipelines from oil fields in West Texas to North Dakota’s Bakken. Now it’s raising questions about the importance of Keystone XL, TransCanada Corp.’s controversial project designed to connect Alberta’s booming oil sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The assessment reflects moves by companies such as Gibson Energy Inc., Keyera Corp. and others, which have committed a combined $1-billion this year and next to build rail terminal infrastructure in Western Canada. Another $4-billion to $5-billion is earmarked for new railcars that are on back order, Peters said in the report.

As regular readers know, I enjoy tweaking active environmentalists who often act before they think.

Look at the photographs that accompany the linked story and tell me what makes more sense environmentally:

• shipping oil by pipeline
• crude-by-rail
• trucking oil (LOL) 

So, next time you are sitting at a railroad crossing watching 110 oil tankers pass you by at 5 mph, thank the folks who killed the Keystone XL. 

For investors, it's a huge win-win no matter how you bet (rail vs pipeline).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you might have read here. 

Saturday Morning Links, News, And Views -- Part II -- Dickinson Adding 1.4 Million Square Feet Of Retail Space

The Dickinson Press provides an update on economic development in Dickinson:

The first building of Dickinson’s major new retailers is beginning to look like the Menards store it’s going to be.

There are three major commercial developments planned for Dickinson’s west side, and while there are complete and near-complete hotels and apartments on the site, Menards is the first retailer to break ground at Roers’ West Ridge.

“We have several national retailers and restaurants that have shown an interest in the city that, over the next year, I anticipate them announcing that they will be coming to Dickinson,” said Ed Courton, Dickinson’s community development director. Big box stores can take nine months to a year to complete.

Directly north of West Ridge is Pinecrest, Meyer Real Estate Group’s commercial development, and on the south side of Interstate 94, along 30th Avenue West is the 5 Diamond commercial development.

As proposed, these three developments will add up to 1.4 million square feet of retail to Dickinson, Courton said.

Beltrami County, Minnesota, will lose $1 million/year in lease money from Enbridge with new Sandpiper proposed route to avoid the wetlands:

Beltrami County makes about $900,000 off Enbridge Energy each year, but no more funds will be funneling into county coffers if the Canadian company has its way.
Enbridge chose the route it prefers for the proposed Sandpiper pipeline, and it does not run through Beltrami County, which made just south of $1 million in property taxes off the company in 2011.

“It’s mainly about winter construction costs,” said Becky Haase, spokeswoman for Enbridge. With the proposed route, taking a sharp turn to the south just west of the Beltrami and Clearwater county line, those costs will be much lower, Haase said.
The property taxes for the Sandpiper would go to the eight Minnesota counties through which the pipeline will travel — a distance of 610 miles, with a price tag of $2.5 billion, according to Haase.

From west to east, those counties are Polk, Red Lake, Clearwater, Hubbard, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin and Carlton. With the existing pipeline, which runs through Clearbrook, Bemidji and just south of Grand Rapids, the Sandpiper would bring to 11 the number of counties carrying Enbridge oil.

Easy come, easy go. I assume the Beltrami folks are happy to finally be rid of Enbridge. And the million bucks each year. Easy come, easy go. Be sure to thank your local environmentalist.

Global Warming -- Saturday Morning's Recap; No Hurricanes In The Month Of August; The First Time In 11 Years; Accumulated Cyclone Power 30% Of "Normal"

This is a cut and paste from an earlier post this morning. This is just about global warming, nothing else.

Deniers of the coming ice age should skip this, but I thought it too important to languish as part of an earlier post that some folks might miss.

So, if you have read everything I've posted so far this morning, this is a repeat. My editor recommended I do this. I don't like doing this, repeating stuff, but I have a pretty good editor. So:

Global Warming

First, and this is the best: there were no hurricanes in the month of August. Bloomberg is reporting:

August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.

Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.

“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.

Environmentalists seem to be in a panic. Bloomberg is also reporting:

U.S. and European Union envoys are seeking more clarity from the United Nations on a slowdown in global warming that climate skeptics have cited as a reason not to “panic” about environmental changes, leaked documents show.

They’re requesting that more details on the so-called “hiatus” be included in a key document set to be debated at a UN conference next month that will summarize the latest scientific conclusions on climate change.

 And this:

The summary document notes that the rate of warming over the past 15 years “is smaller than the trend since 1951,” citing a rate of about 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade in the years 1998 through 2012. The rate was about 0.12 degrees per decade from 1951 through 2012.

From The Guardian: 

Cooling waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear to be a major factor in dampening global warming in recent years, scientists said on Wednesday.

Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the greatest puzzle of current climate change research – why global average surface temperatures, while still on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years than previously.

Waters in the eastern tropical regions of the Pacific have been notably cooler in recent years, owing to the effects of one of the world's biggest ocean circulatory systems, the Pacific decadal oscillation.

And so it goes. Finally, some discussion in the mainstream media about "the pause." Seventeen years now. 

Alabama: one of the coolest summers on record in 131 years.

Why President O'Bama Killed The Keystone XL: It Wasn't "XL" Enough; Coal To Natural Gas

It can now be revealed why President O'Bama killed the Keystone XL.

It wasn't big enough.

Quick: what was the estimated cost for the Keystone XL? Let's call it about $7 billion (wiki) but I'm sure you can find figures all over the "map."

The Chinese are talking about a $16 billion pipeline.  And another $11 billion for the coal-to-natural gas plant where the pipeline is headed. Almost $30 billion for a single, multi-province project. Sort of makes the Keystone XL pale in comparison and not worthy of Barry's attention.

China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) has received Beijing's approval for a mega project to turn coal into natural gas as part of the mainland's strategy to increase energy efficiency and cut reliance on oil and gas imports.

Fu Chengyu, the chairman of the nation's second-largest oil and gas producer and the world's second-biggest crude oil refiner, said the project had received "all necessary government approvals", but the budget was not known.

"Since this project involves over a dozen provinces, the overall investment can be known only after a detailed feasibility study is completed," Fu said.

The project involves the construction of an 8,000-kilometre main gas pipeline from Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region to Zhejiang province through Guangdong. Five branch pipelines will also be built.

China is 90 per cent coal self-sufficient but imports almost 60 per cent of its oil and a quarter of its gas usage. Coal gasification subjects coal to high heat and pressure to turn it into gases, which are processed into natural gas and other by-products.

The total cost of the pipeline would exceed 100 billion yuan (HK$126 billion), Fu said, adding Sinopec would lead the project and be responsible for investing in 8 billion cubic metres of annual gas production and transmission capacity. Total capacity will be 30 billion to 36 billion cubic metres (bcm). [US dollars: $16 billion; Hong Kong dollars: $126 billion].

For additional background on this story, see a MDW post back on April 7, 2013:

China announced that it will be building a huge, $11 billion, coal-to-gas facility. Reuters is reporting:

China's state energy giant Sinopec Group envisages investing 70 billion yuan ($11.3 billion) to build the country's largest coal-to-gas project in 8-10 years to meet a rising demand for natural gas, a newspaper said on Sunday. 

Coal-to-gas production facilities in Zhundong in China's northwestern region of Xinjiang will have annual production capacity of 8 billion cubic metres of gas (bcm) .... Coal extracted from two mines in Zhundong will be used to feed coal-to-gas production facilities nearby, the daily said. The coal mines have annual production capacity of 15 million tonnes each. 

Something tells me Sinopec will have no trouble with the permitting process. The CO2 emissions, I imagine, will flow eastward over Portland, OR.

Saturday Morning Links, News, And Views -- I Have A Dream

Updates

September 1, 2013: hours before the surprise speech on Syria a reader suggested that Obama was going to strike that night. The strike would have been brief and in time for the Sunday morning news shows. At the time, I don't think either the reader (who sent me his thoughts on Obama) or I knew that the President had a speech scheduled for later that day. This was my reply, before I knew there was going to be a speech:

I don't get television so I don't know what additional information you have that I don't have.

If he were to launch tonight, it would simply be a square filler. He would be able to give a speech saying he did it, that he kept his word.

If he does do a limited, brief launch, I think it will be horrendous -- the Russians know that he was acting like a spoiled child, that even without the Brits, he would show the world who is boss, but the Russians know he is a paper tiger. The Syrians have said that if Obama launches, he will be launching all by himself, and he (Obama) will own/buy completely 100% whatever the fallout it, and I think it would Vladimir Putin carte blanche to do what he wants in the Mideast. Obama would be going it alone; no UN vote; no Congressional vote.

I can't read Obama's mind; he is 100% unpredictable. Reagan's Libyan bombing was similar but there was no lead up to it; it just happened. In this case, Obama would be going in despite everyone (except French Hollande) saying "no" publicly, though privately they may be saying something else.

So, I would not take any bet on when/if he launches tonight. He is too unpredictable. I think he invites the wrath of Putin if he launches.

The key thought in that note was my suggestion that President Obama knew he was going to be doing this completely alone: as I said above, whatever happened after the brief and limited launch, he, personally, had bought whatever happened next, for however long it lasted. He would "own" Syria. 

It appears the last connecting dot was the failure of the British government to back him: Parliament said "no" and the Prime Minister acquiesced.  Without the British, President Obama was entirely on his own. 

I thought about that note when I read the New York Times piece on his decision and his speech. Generally, the Times will put their spin on the story, giving some insight into their editor's stand on an issue. In this case, and I read the article twice, I could not find one bit of editorial slicing and dicing that put the President in a good light. 

WSJ Links

Of course, the Syrian Missile Crisis heads the list. No links: the story is everywhere. John Kerry reprises the Colin Powell role as the SecState who has all the evidence he needs to strike Syria. Well, actually not quite (all the evidence). His exact words: "high confidence" that the Syrian regime was behind a chemical-weapons attack -- direct quote from The WSJ.

"High confidence" is just a bit more conclusive than "pretty sure, you betcha."

Barry O'Bama reprises the role of George Bush #2, but this time the producer/director is the lead actor himself, Barry O'Bama, and he will re-write the script: no coalition, no UN vote, no Congressional authorization. Producer, director, writer, screenplay, editing: Barry will go it alone.

But with the British vote, and the American polling, this movie may never get made. 

If you all recall, Barry was piloting the lead helicopter that flew into the Osama bin Laden compound. I assume Barry will fly to Langley Air Force Base to personally launch the first drone missile attacks if the movie is released.

It is nice to see that French President Hollande is goading President O'Bama to take action against Syria. I assume France doesn't get any oil from Syria.

Meanwhile, Canada is rethinking/re-vamping its immigration policy. It looks like the Canadians are more interested in bettering their country than getting votes.

This should be interesting: Amish newspapers thrive in digital age.

The corn stands 5 feet tall, the temperatures are in the 90s and Johnny Byler got hooked on his head while fishing with a friend, reported Mrs. Jerry Ray Byler in a recent front-page article of the Budget.

Mrs. Byler is one of about 860 correspondents for the Budget, a 123-year-old weekly newspaper, which carries the news of Amish and Mennonite communities, from Diagonal, Iowa to the three Minnesota outposts of Bertha, Clarissa and Lenora. They write about who got married, who went to church, who received dentures—and how 11 chickens went missing when Toby Schrocks of Cisne, Ill., forgot to close the chicken-house door.

*************************

I Have A Dream

I have a dream, too. I dream that someday we will have political leaders who can think and orate like Martin Luther King. 

The Bakken Can Wait -- But First Some Idle Chatter

If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down, up, or to the left. Or better yet, look at the September NDIC hearing dockets, and drool over the 600 wells that EOG is looking to drill. But for now, I'm going to spend some "me-time" which is important to help put all this in perspective when my granddaughters read this 20 years from now.

Everywhere, and at the top of the fold of The New York Times, a bigger headline than the Syria missile crisis story: Seamus Heaney, died August 30, or thereabouts, I guess. I first met Seamus through reading his translation of Beowulf. Other than that, I don't really know much about him. Here are some stories: The Boston Globe, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and, of course, wiki.

His passing caught the eye of the gods. Jupiter was the second brightest object in the sky this morning just before dawn; the brightest object, of course, was the crescent moon. And if one had good enough eyes, and I just barely do (I forget to grab the binoculars) one could also see Mars just above Jupiter. I saw all three. If I had a telescope/camera/photographic skills/interest/time/etc I would have taken a photograph.

It was incredible. Apparently one more viewing opportunity tomorrow (Sunday) morning, when it is still very dark before dawn. We happen to live where there is minimal manmade light interfering with stargazing.

Aquarius/Let The Sunshine In, The Fifth Dimension  

" ... when the moon is in the 7th house, when Jupiter aligns with Mars, then peace will guide the planets, and love will steer the stars ..." [Shortly after this was posted, the US and Russia fond a way out of striking Syria.]

**************************

There is a Russian proverb: there is no such thing as happiness. There are only happy moments.

About a week ago I realized I was experiencing one of those happy moments, perhaps one of the happiest moments in my life (save those I've spent with three beautiful women).

I can't recall when I've been happier. I wouldn't be surprised if having no television is not playing a significant role. I may be spending as much time in front of an LED monitor but I'm not watching television.

This evening I had a free hour and needed something to fill that time while preparing dinner. I had not watched Quentin Tarantino's Kill Bill, II, in some time. I had forgotten how superb the sound track was.

David Lynch always has incredible sound tracks, and he has incredible scenes, but he seems to have difficulty putting an entire story together -- at least one in which sane people can understand.

But Quentin Tarantino, when he is good, he is very, very good. Sometimes I think David Lynch puts his movie together building around some incredible scenes. Quentin, on the other hand, it seems, puts his movies together based on some incredible sound tracks. The sound track for Kill Bill Volume 2, is an incredibly good sound track. 

I only had an hour but watching the first hour of Kill Bill Volume 2 was incredible. I knew I always enjoyed the music, but I had forgotten how really good it was.

[Current DVDs being viewed this past week: The Lord of the Rings, the entire trilogy; Casablanca, for the umpteenth time (I never get tired of watching it); the first three seasons of 'curb your enthusiasm'; the first season of Miami Vice; and, the first 1 and a half seasons of Twin Peaks (there were only two seasons). None of these were selected randomly, except perhaps Kill Bill Volume 2 which I was watched last night -- just the first hour.

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I continue to read Edward Hodges' 1983 biography of Alan Turing. I think I've mentioned it before so I won't talk about it now, except to say for those interested in the history of quantum physics and the development of the modern computer, and the social milieu of England in the last half of the 20th century, the biography is a must-read. The book has been in continuous print since 1983, and the centenary edition came out in 2012.

As exciting, is an Amazon Vine copy of Sidney and Violet: Their Life With T. S. Eliot, Proust, Joyce, and the Excruciatingly Irascible Wyndham Lewis, Stephen Klaidman. I am reading an advance copy; I'm not sure when it will be released for sale. The advance copy comes with a few typesetting errors that need to be corrected and without an index. I am always surprised to see how much influence a man like Wyndham Lewis could have who seemed to do so little, produce so little, and what he produced, seemed so irrelevant. [Again, I'm talking about Wyndham, not the president.]

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Global Warming

I should do this as a stand-alone post, all the stuff coming out with regard to global warming.

First, and this is the best: there were no hurricanes in the month of August. Bloomberg is reporting:

August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.
Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.
“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.

Environmentalists seem to be in a panic. Bloomberg is also reporting:

U.S. and European Union envoys are seeking more clarity from the United Nations on a slowdown in global warming that climate skeptics have cited as a reason not to “panic” about environmental changes, leaked documents show.

They’re requesting that more details on the so-called “hiatus” be included in a key document set to be debated at a UN conference next month that will summarize the latest scientific conclusions on climate change.

 And this:

The summary document notes that the rate of warming over the past 15 years “is smaller than the trend since 1951,” citing a rate of about 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade in the years 1998 through 2012. The rate was about 0.12 degrees per decade from 1951 through 2012.

From The Guardian: 

Cooling waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear to be a major factor in dampening global warming in recent years, scientists said on Wednesday.

Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the greatest puzzle of current climate change research – why global average surface temperatures, while still on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years than previously.

Waters in the eastern tropical regions of the Pacific have been notably cooler in recent years, owing to the effects of one of the world's biggest ocean circulatory systems, the Pacific decadal oscillation.

And so it goes. Finally, some discussion in the mainstream media about "the pause." Seventeen years now.

Alabama: one of the coolest summers on record in 131 years.

And This, Folks, Is Why Bakken Acreage Still Commands A Premium, And Why the Bakken Is The Gold Standard; Four QEP Wells With High IPs

From Friday's NDIC daily activity report, six producing wells that have been completed:

• 24398, 2,909, QEP, MHA 1-04-33H-150-92, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, t7/13; cum --
• 24400, 2,844, QEP, MHA 2-04-33H-150-92, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, t7/13; cum --
• 24399, 2,381, QEP, MHA 3-04-33H-150-92, Heart Butte, Three Forks; t7/13; cum --
• 24401, 2,384, QEP, MHA 4-04-33H-150-92, Heart Butte, t7/13; cum --
• 24600, 592, Sequel, Leon 21-8H-0817-15895-TF, McGregor, May 7 - 25; fairly high gas units; t8/13; cum --
• 24599, 694, Sequel, Larena 21-8H-0817-15895-MB, McGregor, high gas units; 24-foot trip gas flare, t8/12; cum -- 

I track Heart Butte here; it has been updated; a great field for newbies to look at, to see the incredible production potential in the Bakken. 

In addition, there were twelve (12) new permits:

• Operators: Statoil (3), Corinthian (2), HRC (2), MRO, Cornerstone, CLR, American Eagle, Whiting
• Fields: Red Rock (Bottineau), Coteau (Burke), White Earth (Mountrail), Sanish (Mountrail), Otter (Williams), Northeast Landa (Bottineau), Alger (Mountrail)
• Comments: MRO has a permit for a wildcat in Slope County; American Eagle has a permit for a wildcat in Divide County;

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Unedited e-mail sent in reply to a note from a reader (my reply may not make sense without the original e-mail note from the reader, but ....)

Great comments. Thank you.

Yes, comparing ALL of Texas to the Bakken is comparing apples with oranges. I think folks forget the Bakken is essentially four counties, and then whatever they find around Dickinson in the next Three Forks and Tyler boom, yet to come.

I agree with you. Unless there are some major geopolitical debacles impacting the Bakken negatively, I doubt Dickinson will be overbuilt. Hopefully, I will see for myself in October. But, without question, the activity is still centered in McKenzie County right now.

The flared gas issue is quite troubling. The only way they can make a dent in flared gas is shutting in or choking back a lot of wells. It looks like "little" mineral owners can get $80,000/month in crude oil royalties, and $4,000/month in NGLs from Bakken wells, and some of those folks are complaining that they are losing $4,000/month in "wasted" natural gas. It is not worth the effort, money, or time for the operators to put in a pipeline to some of those remote wells, and even if they did, ONEOK and MDU don't have enough processing capacity to handle all that natural gas so it would still be flared. If those complaining about wasted flared gas, wait until NDIC or the Feds start shutting in those wells that are flaring; then they will have something to complain about.

I don't know if you saw the RBN Energy article. The natural gas production from the Marcellus will increase by 8 times, and they will be piping the excess natural gas out to Montana, Utah, etc., and that will put further pressure on the Bakken natural gas flaring issue. And we haven't even begun to talk about all the NGL coming out of Canada. When that NGL tsunami hits, the $4,000/month in wasted natural gas will probably go to $1,000/month. And some folks will still be complaining about "wasted" gas. It suggests to me they do not understand the economics of drilling. Of course, I don't either.

Thank you for taking time to write; sharing comments. Hopefully I will be in the Bakken in late October.

Bakken Update -- NOT!

I don't know if it's Mike Filloon's headline or the headline that SeekingAlpha attaches to his articles, but it appears that SeekingAlpha has a "series" called "The Bakken Update." I only noted it this morning, but it seems to be almost synonymous with articles submitted by Mike Filloon, regardless of what he actually writes on.

Today, the headline: "Bakken Update: Carrizo Beats On The Top and Bottom Line In Q2." Carrizo is in the Eagle Ford and the Marcellus; Carrizo is not in the Bakken.