Thursday, March 9, 2023
The Golden Triangle -- Denton, Ft Worth, Dallas -- March 9, 2023
Wow, I wish every mom-and-pop retail investor had the opportunity to spend a month in the Golden Triangle of north Texas.
One doesn't hear that term often (if ever, any more) but it's the real deal.
The three points of the Golden Triangle in north Texas: Denton (immortalized in Rocky Horror Picture Show); Dallas, and Ft Worth.
Grapevine - Euless are smack dab in the middle of that triangle.
When we moved to north Texas in 2013, we lived in The Vine Apartments in Grapevine, since renamed Vine South. We moved in 2020 (?) to Euless, to a much nicer apartment complex, Cortland, about a quarter-mile down the road. It has since changed hands and is now known as The Edge. No one knows why. The edge of the Golden Triangle? Who knows?
I don't often drive but I am working on several summer projects for Sophia and I have had to visit a number of spots to get all the things I need: Harbor Freight, Walmart, Hobby Lobby, the US Post Office, Target, Market Street.
It is impossible to articulate why I love north Texas, but let's start. The following pertains to what I see in the center of the Golden Triangle; not all data points are likely to pertain to the points (Denton, Ft Worth, or Dallas proper).
- no state income tax
- weather: perfect 11.5 months of the year, especially if you like to swim
- clean streets and neighborhoods
- incredibly low utility costs
- $75 to register each of my three old cars (actually, I only register two of them; I quit registering the third one about two years ago)
- incredibly low rent compared to California, let's say
- the roads are incredible; best in the nation; both in their layout and their maintenance;
- we live less than ten minutes from the best airport in the country DFW
- even in rush hour, smooth sailing to DFW and back
- and, light rail to DFW if one wants that alternative
- Texans drive as if they have a purpose; no-nonsense driving, but incredibly friendly; no road rage but an occasional idiot -- but ...
- except for speeding, everyone seems to follow the rules, and the police are out in force, keeping speeding to a minimum;
- every Texan with two vehicles has an F-150 or F-250 as either his first or second vehicles;
- the other car, as often as not, a Porsche, Corvette, or Lamborghini;
- if the Texan in Southlake (a neighbor of Grapevine) owns a third car, it's a Tesla
- there's a new phenomenon with regard to home building; folks are building their homes on two residential lots and the house is the size of two McMansions -- I've never witnessed this phenomenon before; reminds me of the homes in west LA, in the Hollywood Hills; perhaps, locally, it is the Californians moving to Texas;
- I think Houston, TX, holds the US record for highest percent of obese residents; the other side of that coin: the best restaurants in the US and lots of them, and wow, does Euless and Grapevine have more than their share of great restaurants and in the Golden Triangle, the number is growing;
- if one want to eat out, my own neighborhood has the following grocers: Tom Thumb (most expensive, worse selection); Albertson's (better); Target (good); Walmart (best on price and number of line items); and I understand HEB -- the best grocer in the world is coming to our neighborhood sometime in the next two years; and I haven't even mention Whole Foods, Market Fresh, Sprouts, and Kroger's -- all here but requires a car to drive there. Also H Mart and 99 Ranch Market -- Asian supermarkets.
- non-grocery retail; second to none with shopping malls everywhere; the best is the outdoor mall in our backyard
- Chicken N Pickle; link here; five minutes by bike from our apartment; this may just be the biggest phenomenon to come out of the pandemic
- link here: see screenshot below;
- dine-in cinema-multiplex theaters; Japanese restaurants;
- high school, college, and club sports facilities that are absolutely incredible; one needs to see them to believe them;
- baseball fields; soccer fields;
- Dallas: pro basketball, football, soccer, baseball, hockey; the kids all have their own team to follow
- schools: really, really good;
Nine New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 9, 2023
Active rigs: 44.
WTI: $75.61.
Natural gas: $2.599.
Nine new permits, #39708 - #39716, inclusive:
- Operators: Hess (5); Petro-Hunt (4)
- Fields: Tioga (Williams); Sheep Butte (McKenzie); Moline (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Petro-Hunt has permits for two Dudley Dawson wells, SWSW 32-149-102;
- to be sited 345 FSL with one 385 FFWL and the other 350 FWL
- Petro-Hunt has permits for two Joel Goodsen wells, SWW 32-149-102;
- to be sited 345 FSL with one 315 FWL and one 280 FW:
- Hess has permits for five TI-Larson wells, NWNE 25-157-95;
- to be sited 335 FNL and between 1784 FEL and 1916 FEL;
Four DUCs reported as completed:
- 38767, 555, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 3-3-10H,
- 38768, 554, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 4-3-10H,
- 34772, n/d, XTO, Lonnie Federal 31X-3GS,
- 38850, 9 (no typo), Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 2-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
Two More California Companies Moving From California To Texas, Including An "AI" Company From Silicon Valley -- March 9, 2023
Updates
Later, 2:43 p.m. CT: just after posting the original note below, it was reported that another company is reportedly moving to Texas: Inbenta, link here.
Holy mackerel! This is any ol' company moving from California. It's an "AI" company. Wow, wow, wow.
Inbenta
is moving from Silicon Valley in California to Allen, Texas. Allen is
midway between Plano and McKinney, the two fastest growing cities in the
US, north of Dallas.
Original Post
Relocation, California to Texas, tagged here.
There's
more than one story line here. I'll get back to this if I find time. I
think folks are missing the second biggest story line.
Landsea Homes, which designs and builds master-planned communities and houses across the country, will leave Newport Beach, California, in favor of Dallas, Texas. "We are relocating our corporate headquarters to Dallas, Texas, from Southern California, a move that should provide cost savings over time,” Landsea founder and CEO John Ho said during a call with investors Tuesday.
Blogging Will Be Severely Limited For The Next Few Days -- Perhaps Next Few Weeks -- March 9, 2023
Today: warm, overcast, calm, small chance for rain. Beautiful day.
Reading:
For a "throw-away" book, this book turned out to be very, very interesting. I could have done worse.
Plans:
I'm still preparing for Sophia's summer "vacation." I'm putting together a number of summer projects for Sophia that will take some time now.
One big change in my personal life: my feelings about keeping books on shelves has/have changed. My life has, literally overnight, improved 100% and all of a sudden, I have much more space. LOL. Imagine that. And I'm not reading any less; more, if anything. But I digress.
The twice daily Bakken report will always be posted.
Hopefully, I will post, at least once a week, thoughts on investing, which for me has now become much more interesting than blogging on the Bakken. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me but most of my reporting on the Bakken is "more of the same."
To make blogging on the Bakken more interesting, it helps to get questions from readers with regard to the Bakken.
I'm in an incredibly good mood.
This was posted in January, 2023, and update from an earlier post, same subject;
Investors:
- for those with a 30-year horizon, this is going to be another great year for investing;
- at the rate the Fed initiated and continued the increases in the Fed rate, Schwab data suggests 550 days (range 500 - 650) before the market gets back to "where it was"
- start: March 20, 2022; days remaining in 2022 -- 286
- end, "back to where were" range:
- 500 - 286 = 214 = August 2, 2023 (summer doldrums; dog days of summer)
- 650 - 286 = 364 = December 30, 2023 (Santa Claus rally)
- long-term investors can keep picking up shares at deep discounts at least until mid-year, 2023 [update: extended 180 days, to June 30, 2024].
- in other words, this "story" -- at best -- is just mid-cycle. A lot of time left before we "get back to where we were."
- universities and other magnets for donations will probably feel the effect the greatest as donors cut back.
- AAPL re-sets: now a "value" company; not a "growth" company. Will trade at a lower P/E. Perhaps true also for other companies, like Tesla.
Now, the update. With the new Fed policy enunciated by JPow on March 7, 2023 -- "higher, sooner, longer," the 500 - 650 day range great buying opportunities has been extended. Based on JPow's comments two days ago, the range can be extended 180 days which takes us to June 30, 2024.
The "consensus" is that the coming recession has now been pushed out to 2025. Yes, 2025.
Maybe more on this later, but the recession, "when/if" does not bother me a bit; "this" recession has been predicted for so long, it will be a relief when it comes. LOL. What excites me is that for index investing the market won't be back "to where we were" until June 30, 2024; that in the meantime, it will be a stock-pickers market.
************************
Mother Goose
Advice for today:
Jack Sprat could eat no fat.
His wife could eat no lean.
And so between them both, you see,
They licked the platter clean.
A "talking head" on CNBC repeated the meme: with interest rates this high, bonds are competing with stocks.
My mother knew nothing about investing and kept all her money in cash, money market accounts, and occasionally CDs. She was thrilled with 14% interest rates in the 1980s (?).
My father, whether he knew anything about investing or not, I don't know. He always said it was always better to be "lucky" rather than "smart." He did incredibly well in the market despite no formal training and no informal education with regard to investing. I don't think he ever read a book on invested, and ever read The WSJ. About all he did was watch the CNBC crawler ten minutes every day while checking the day-old Bismarck Tribune "money section."
But he did most of his investing during a multi-decade bull market. He never invested in Treasuries or bonds; he only invested in stocks.
Both mom and dad ended up financially quite well off, probably better than most.
So, for mom, bonds did not compete with stocks. Bonds competed with cash under her mattress.
For dad, stock did not compete with bonds. AAPL competed with SLB for his dollars.
And it continues in the next generation. For my wife, the money market accounts compete with cash in her savings account; and, for me AAPL competes with DVN for my dollars.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
So, now back to work on Sophia's projects.
*************************
Army, Navy, Air Force
For the young person who wants to join the military but doesn't know which service, here's some free advice:
Explaining EIA's "Fudge Factor" -- RBN Energy -- March 9, 2023.
Active rigs: 44.
Peter Zeihan newsletter.
WTI: $76.53.
Natural gas: $2.534.
Friday, March 10, 2023: 36 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 198 for the year
39137, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 6-5H1,
39132, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 3-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,
39142, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 4-20H
39136, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 5-5HH,
On March 7, 2023, the most interesting energy story ever. Archived.
Now, this today, RBN Energy: explaining the EIA's huge unaccounted crude oil imbalances.
The numbers don’t add up.
Literally.
The most closely watched energy statistics in the world have a problem, and it’s been getting worse over the past two years. We’re talking about EIA’s U.S. crude oil supply, demand and inventory balances, which are published each week and then trued up about 60 days later in monthly data.
The problem is that the balances don’t balance. EIA uses a plug number alternatively called “adjustment” or “unaccounted for” to force supply and demand to equate. That would not be an issue if the plug number was small and flipped frequently from positive to negative, likely due to timing inconsistencies with the input data. But that’s not the case.
The number is mostly positive, meaning more demand than supply. And the difference can be mammoth: last week it was 2.3 MMb/d, or 18.4% of U.S. crude production.
It seems like barrels are somehow materializing out of nowhere. But now we know where, because EIA just finished a 90-day study of the crude imbalance that reveals the sources of the problem and what it is going to take to fix it. In today’s RBN blog, we will delve into what has been causing the problem, what it means for interpreting EIA statistics, and what EIA is doing to address the issues.
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