Rambling Thoughts -- Investing -- January 4, 2023

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All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Updated.

Investors:

• for those with a 30-year horizon, this is going to be another great year for investing;
• at the rate the Fed initiated and continued the increases in the Fed rate, Schwab data suggests 550 days (range 500 - 650) before the market gets back to "where it was"
• start: March 20, 2022; days remaining in 2022 -- 286
• end, "back to where were" range:
• 500 - 286 = 214 = August 2, 2023 (summer doldrums; dog days of summer)
• 650 - 286 = 364 = December 30, 2023 (Santa Claus rally)
• long-term investors can keep picking up shares at deep discounts at least until mid-year, 2023;
• in other words, this "story" -- at best -- is just mid-cycle. A lot of time left before we "get back to where we were." 
• universities and other magnets for donations will probably feel the effect the greatest as donors cut back.
• AAPL re-sets: now a "value" company; not a "growth" company. Will trade at a lower P/E. Perhaps true also for other companies, like Tesla.
  

Two questions:

• the bottom: how low and when?
• does the Fed pivot sooner than expected? [that possibility seemed less likely as of January 4, 2023].
  

Additional comments:

• for retirees, RMDs are going to be very, very low this year; and will probably remain very low in 2024 if the Fed stays "higher for longer" [confirmed Wednesday, January 4, 2023, when JPow said there would be more rate raises in 2023].
  
• dividend-paying stocks are looking very, very good