Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Updated.
Investors:
- for those with a 30-year horizon, this is going to be another great year for investing;
- at the rate the Fed initiated and continued the increases in the Fed rate, Schwab data suggests 550 days (range 500 - 650) before the market gets back to "where it was"
- start: March 20, 2022; days remaining in 2022 -- 286
- end, "back to where were" range:
- 500 - 286 = 214 = August 2, 2023 (summer doldrums; dog days of summer)
- 650 - 286 = 364 = December 30, 2023 (Santa Claus rally)
- long-term investors can keep picking up shares at deep discounts at least until mid-year, 2023;
- in other words, this "story" -- at best -- is just mid-cycle. A lot of time left before we "get back to where we were."
- universities and other magnets for donations will probably feel the effect the greatest as donors cut back.
- AAPL re-sets: now a "value" company; not a "growth" company. Will trade at a lower P/E. Perhaps true also for other companies, like Tesla.
Two questions:
- the bottom: how low and when?
- does the Fed pivot sooner than expected? [that possibility seemed less likely as of January 4, 2023].
Additional comments:
- for
retirees, RMDs are going to be very, very low this year; and will
probably remain very low in 2024 if the Fed stays "higher for longer" [confirmed Wednesday, January 4, 2023, when JPow said there would be more rate raises in 2023].
- dividend-paying stocks are looking very, very good
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