The Carry Trade -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48482INV.

For the past week, a most common phrase on CNBC has been "the carry trade."

This is"the carry trade," link here:

• borrowing money in a non-US currency,
• in a country whose central bank is lending money at zero interest, or even at negative, rates,
• to buy US dollars,
• with which to buy US equities. 

***************************************
My Favorite Chart

See this post.

I've not heard anyone talk about this, but pray tell, from where is all the money coming when MMFs and the US equity market are both at all-time highs. 

From where is all that money coming? 

That's a rhetorical question. 

The answer: the great / generational wealth transfer. Link here.

The baby boomers, 1946 - 1964.

Those baby boomers who live to be 75 years old -- they reached/reach that age ... the earliest ones, 2021 -- the last one 2039. In other words, this great / generational wealth transfer has literally just begun.

****************************
A Musical Interlude

Headphones, and play it loud.

Link here.

Presidential Politics -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48481ARCHIVES.

Two items to read, side-by-side.

Jon Meachem on Thomas Jefferson, in The American Story: Conversations With Master Historians, c. 2019.

Molly Ball on Nancy Pelosi, in The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2024. Link here.

So Much Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48480B.

A reader sent me this earlier tonight. Thank you.

So much left to be done in the Bakken.

From WorldOil, August 20, 2024:

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) released its annual Williston Play Fundamentals that examines the distribution of remaining inventory across the play using economic and geologic viability. The report also dives into redevelopment performance and remaining potential, including refracs, lease line wells and drill-overs.

“Bakken operators are facing a critical decision: when to lean into redevelopment, with only 1,400 sub-$50/bbl breakeven locations remaining,” said EIR analyst and co-author Morgan Howrish.

“We suggest sooner than later, by executing on multiple strategies: refracs, tight-infills, drill-overs and lease line wells. These options could unlock nearly 3,000 additional locations across the basin, all vying for investment particularly in the play’s core where remaining inventory is scarce.

“Refracs, especially those with high proppant intensity, are emerging as contenders to help supplement basin wide production. Their mid-$50s breakevens can contend with new drills, albeit with a wider range of outcomes. While long laterals are becoming more common, they represent just 20% of new drilling activity as they are largely being executed in the extensional regions of the basin,” Howrish said.

The Halo Effect: From 500 BOPD To 34,000 BOPD -- MRO -- Another Halo Success -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48479HALO.

Area of interest. This is what the Bakken is all about. Started with one well on the pad. Then nine. Exactly what we said fifteen years ago: if you "had" one well, someday you will have four, probably eight; possibly 12, and very, very possibly many more:

So, look at #17509, on the map above:

• 17509, 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/11; cum 294K 6/24; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	16163	16161	46871	11669	11504	130
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	17740	17777	56627	12796	12746	11
BAKKEN	4-2024	27	34525	34467	101784	21095	19508	1513
BAKKEN	3-2024	2	1896	1877	14236	1291	1186	87
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	22	342	528	136	378	216	59
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	538	630	179	608	343	81
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	552	428	159	609	368	64
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	531	631	169	520	349	0

And there's more. It simply never quits.

From earlier today, this DUC was reported:

• 40289, 3,305, MRO, Madsen 41-13H, Killdeer, initial production
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	28293	28275	34843	19563	19287	217
BAKKEN	5-2024	26	24779	24781	35363	16585	16520	14
BAKKEN	4-2024	20	25756	25699	45246	13897	12862	987

A neighboring well:

• 17608, 120, MRO, Nanette Strommen 21-13H, Killdeer, t1/09; cum 278K 6/24; recent production, note the halo effect: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	9329	9328	26899	6856	6759	76
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	10687	10681	37701	8391	8358	7
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	7642	7705	33329	4977	4600	359
BAKKEN	3-2024	22	8368	8288	65507	5104	4688	339
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	1	9	79	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	13	53	216	11	122	14	34
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	218	218	72	354	52	118
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	216	210	106	331	39	127
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	339	431	66	439	132	132

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report And Gasoline Demand -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48478OIL.

The weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

• US crude oil in storage: 5% below the five-year average
• refiners: 92.3%
• jet fuel supplied: 3.2% greater than the same four-week period last year

Gasoline demand: link here.

Dinosaurs -- Wednesday August 21, 2024

Locator: 48477DINOSAURS.

Purely coincidental.

I ordered this book from Amazon yesterday ($39.99 at Barnes and Noble), $16 at Amazon -- it arrived today.

I'm in the process of sorting out recent research regarding the evolution of the dinosaurs and their relationship to amphibians and mammals. Absolutely fascinating how things have "evolved" since I last studied this story.

The book that probably started it all -- for me -- was The Mistaken Extinction: Dinosaur Evolution and the Origin of Birds, Lowell Dingus and Timothy Rowe, c. 1997, perhaps one of the best books I've ever read on this subject, and, it introduced me to the whole subject of "clades." 

This new phase in my "research" was the murky relationship between amphibians, reptiles and mammals. It now all makes sense. Wow. Paleontologists / evolutionists are much closer to the "answer," but it's very possible the "truth" will never be known - or at least accepted by everyone.

Now, moments ago, this story pushed to me by The New York Times. Link here.

From the linked article:

*******************
Amazon Vs Barnes

With regard to the book (above).

I first spotted this book at Barnes: $39.99 with 10% off (our annual $25 membership).

Over at Amazon:

Silver Hill Energy Partners Close On Liberty Resources North Dakota Assets -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48476B.

List of wells at this link.

Original post here.

Link here.

From the linked article:

Liberty's assets in North Dakota have a net production of nearly 13,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), with proved developed producing oil and gas reserves of nearly 16 million barrels of oil equivalent.

The midstream facilities consist of a 30 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) gas processing plant and 33 miles of gas gathering lines, among others. The acquisition is expected to close on March 14.

Five New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed; Huge Number Of Wells Acquired By Silver Hill From Liberty Resources -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48475B.

WTI: $71.99.

Active rigs: 36.

Five new permits, #41047 - #41051,inclusive:

• Operators: Hunt Oil (2); Hess, BR, Grayson Mill
• Fields: Sioux Trail (Divide County); Beaver Lodge (Williams); Elidah (McKenzie); and, Todd (Williams)
• Comments:
• Hunt Oil has permits for two Sioux Trails wells, SWSE 36-160-101, 
• to be sited at 294 FSL and 2341 FEL; and, 294 FSL and 2311 FEL
• Hess has a permit for a BL-Kvam well, SESE 8-156-95, 
• to be sited 1056 FSL and 712 FEL;
• BR has a permit for a Phantom Backbone well SWSE 22-152-97, 
• to be sided 804 FSL and 2247 FEL;
• Grayson Mill has a permit for a Wagenman well, SESE 32-155-101, 
• to be sited 399 FSL and 1256 FEL.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38142, 105, BR, Ole 8-1-29MBH,
• 38144, 0, BR, Ole 9-1-29MBH,
• 38145, 134, BR, Ole 8-1-28TFH-ULW,
• 40289, 3,305, MRO, Madsen 41-13H,

A large number of wells transferred from Liberty Resources Management to Silver Hill Energy Operating. Silver Hill Energy closes on acquisition of Liberty Resources assets in North Dakota.

Cramer's First Hour -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48474CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Cramer's first hour: all about Target this morning.

Target: never expected this today. Stressed consumers don't shop at Target. They shop at Dollar General and Walmart, but here we are -- link here --

Ticker:

Walmart: best Dow stock of the year.

MOJO, Carl reiterated on air:

F:

• shifting strategy --
• Ford lost an average of $44,000 on each EV sold in the second quarter
• will cancel plans for electric three-row SUV
• will delay new EV plant in Tennessess
• will take a $400 million write-off
• still a huge warranty problem
• Phil LeBeau put a positive spin on this, and investors like the news, but overall it seems to be a troubling report
• ticker F: up 1.4% today; trending toward $11.
  

• Ford says it won't bring a car to market if it can't be profitable within 12 months
• this is mid-2024
• it's gonna be:
• two years for commercial EV van production (target: Rivian)
• three years for EV pickup / truck
  
• a lot of cash to Tesla to cover regulatory credit costs

Usual disclaimers apply.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

WTI: $73.35.

Thursday, August 22, 2024: 56 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 438 for the year
40393, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HD,
39709, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-157-95-2536H-3,
39708, conf, Hess, TI-Larson -157-95-2536H-2,
24362, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 4H,

Wednesday, August 21, 2024: 52 for the month; 108 for the quarter, 434 for the year
40392, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HZ,
39900, conf, Liberty Resources, Elroy E 158-95-7-6-2MBH, 

RBN Energy: soaring power needs drive gas demand in Virginia and Carolinas. Archived.

The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and planned expansions to it and the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line (Transco) system are providing utilities, data centers and others in Virginia and the Carolinas with enhanced access to Marcellus/Utica-sourced natural gas — and man, will they need it! Plans for new generating capacity between Washington, DC and the South Carolina/Georgia state line are proliferating, and the increasing ability to move large volumes of gas south on MVP and Transco will give producers in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio an important incremental outlet for their gas well into the 2030s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the boom in power demand in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina and the very timely expansion of gas-pipeline access to three states.