Week 47: November 17, 2019 -- November 23, 2019

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

• Chinese oil imports soar to record high;
• Tsunami of coal plants being built in China; 

Top national non-energy story:

• Schwab moving out of California; moving to Texas; here; and, here;
• 660 California companies moving facilities to Texas;
• A former Republican, Bloomberg enters the presidential race as a Democrat;

Top national energy story:

• Propane shortage continues;
• DAPL operator's activity in Texas will positively affect the Bakken;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Meg-a-Latte moving to bigger location; now with three locations in the Bakken;

Top North Dakota energy story:
 
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• After weeks of above normal releases, the volume of water discharged from Garrison Dam and other reservoirs on the Missouri River finally started dropping this week;

Operations:

• The Bird Bear wells have been completed; a neighboring well goes over 500K bbls of crude oil cumulative;
• A BR well, only two years old, goes over 500,000 bbls of crude oil cumulative;
• The CLR Carus wells; and, here;
• Slawson's case for three wells in a 320-acre drilling unit;
• How they do things in the Bakken -- EOG;
• How they do things in the Bakken -- CLR;
• The newly fracked BR Mathistad wells are monster wells;
• MRO reports a huge completed DUC -- the Yesenko well in Four Bears;
• Natural gas
• ONEOK bringing additional natural gas processing capacity on line for North Dakota;

Halo:

• A CLR Hawkinson well with a 13-fold jump in production; 
• Jump in production -- MRO, Jacqueline; 
• XTO, Serrahn, in Siverston; 
• EOG, Skaar, in Parshall;
• Slawson, Wolf, in Van Hook;
• CLR, Siverston, in Elidah; 
• MRO, Mark Sandstrom, in Reunion Bay;
• MRO, Luther USA, in Reunion Bay;
• CLR, Don, in Elidah;
• EOG, Bear Den, in Spotted Horn;

Bakken economy:

• Watford City airport update;

Miscellaneous:

• On track for about 1,500 new oil and gas permits for North Dakota, calendar year, 2019;
• Comparing the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and the Permian
• Bakken well production; a historical review;
• Shifting the focus to optimized production;
• From the Saudis: a technical analysis of the Bakken -- only five years left, maybe fewer;

Five New Permits -- November 25, 2019

Schwab: I'm still blown away by the news that Schwab will be moving to Westlake, Fort Worth, TX, just a bicycle ride down the road from us. I hope a few San Francisco sushi restaurants follow them out here. From Dallas Morning News:

WTI: did cross over $58 briefly during the day; closed just two cents below $58.

Active rigs:

$57.98	11/25/2019	11/25/2018	11/25/2017	11/25/2016	11/25/2015
Active Rigs	57	62	53	37	65

Five new permits, #37214 - #37218, inclusive:

• Operators: Newfield (3); CLR; Slawson
• Fields: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie); St Demetrius (Billings); Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: 
• Slawson has a Zephyr Federal permit in lot 3/section 1-151-93, Big Bend oil field
• Newfield has permits for a 3-well Orivs pad in section 28-150-99, South Tobacco Garden
• CLR has a permit for a Burian well in St Demetrius, sectio 27-141-99

Schwab Leaving California; Moving To Texas -- November 25, 2019

Huge story.

Just a few miles west of us down TX-114, Westlake, Texas, Schwab has been building a huge 3,000 - 5,000 employee campus. Nearby is a huge Ameritrade campus.

Today we hear that Schwab is leaving California. That's true, but as I noted the other day, it's only the Bay Area and the sprawling Los Angeles County that is bearing the brunt of California companies moving to Texas.

In this case, it's 7,000 Schwab employees -- repeat, 7,000 Schwab employees -- leaving the Bay Area to move to Tarrant County, Westlake, a suburb of Ft Worth, TX.

Early we posted that this area would be the population center of the DFW metroplex in 2050. The population center will move west from Dallas, Plano, Frisco, McKinney, to Fort Worth, Southlake, Westlake, Roanoke, and Rhome.

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The Science Is Settled

It's really quite "amazing."

I'm sitting here reading the current issue of Scientific American. Some of the stories:

• the challenge of measuring the size of the proton; measurements date back to the 1950s and discrepancies still exist; 
• Alzheimer's: "after a strong of drug failures, it's time to look beyond targeting amyloid"
• Qatar women in STEM (several-page advertising insert)
• escape from a black hole: science told us nothing can escape from a black hole; now new observations may help tell us how
• cancer: "when it comes to human cancers, many theories about treatment have not panned out" -- page 6

So, lots of stuff being studied.

But there it is, the first -- the very first essay in this issue -- page 9, in the "Science Agenda" section,

"To cope with climate change, we need every strategy we've got." 

Yup, the science is settled. Only the name is changing. From "global warming" to "climate change." Politically correct, I may have missed it, but I did not see the phrase, "global warming," but that's what it was all about. This was the "culprit": heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Heat-trapping. Global warming.

When it comes to global warming/climate change, the science is settled. In all other areas of science, nothing is settled. Not even the size of the proton which should have been sorted out decades ago.

And so it goes.

Three More CLR Carus Wells -- November 25, 2019

By the end of the day -- inshallah -- these three wells will be reported.

This page will not be updated; the CLR Carus wells are tracked here.

Beyond someone's wildest dreams:

Beyond My Wildest Dreams, Mark Knopfler and Emmylou Harris
The three latest Carus wells:

• 35578, 2,652, CLR, Carus 11-28H, Cedar Coulee,
• 35548, 2,512, CLR, Carus 6-28H1, Cedar Coulee, it will be interesting to read the geologist's narrative;
• 35549, 1,160, CLR, Carus 5-28H, Cedar Coulee,

35578, 2,652, CLR, Carus 11-28H, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 132K 9/19; 33-025-03594, look at the huge production in the first three full months of production. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 4/22/19 - 5/8/19, with a typical completion strategy, 10.9 million gallons of water; 87.4% water by mass; 42 stages; 12.7 million lbs. In three months, CLR reported runs of 162,866 bbls:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2019	46145	56965
8-2019	52973	62506
7-2019	30316	43395
5-2019	2270	0

35548, 2,512, CLR, Carus 6-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 120K 9/19; 33-025-03588, look at the huge production in the first three full months of production. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 3/23/19 - 4/4/19, with a fairly huge frack for a Three Forks first bench well, 11.1 million gallons of water; 87.5% water by mass, 42 stages; 12.75 million lbs. In three months, CLR reported runs of 140,698 bbls:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2019	38258	47363
8-2019	59530	71928
7-2019	19952	21407
5-2019	2226	0

35549, 1,160, CLR, Carus 5-28H, Cedar Coulee, t9/19; cum 28K 9/19; 33-025-03589. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 3/10/19 - 3/22/19, with a fairly huge frack, 11.4 million gallons of water; 87.6% water by mass, 42 stages; 12.8 million lb.

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2019	20533	22887
8-2019	5607	5988
5-2019	1232	0

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 25, 2019

Recession is right around the corned -- Janet Yellen, last week. NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit new all-time highs. Say what?

The NASDAQ "surged" more than one percent. Trump received news from China that makes it possible for a Santa Claus rally. First story in most business media outlets:

Charles Schwab acquiring TD Ameritrade. Yes, this is huge.

Likewise, this one has been out there for quite some time but finally it looks like it is happening, Tiffany & Co. being bought. Lots of comments; let's look at the trend:

a lot of MAGA comments, which is surprising, considering the source of story -- in fact, that's the theme of the comments; not much else there; surprising.

Moon River, Audrey Hepburn
Peak oil? What peak oil? I thought "peak-oilers" said off-shore was dead:

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On Bridges

Many years ago I spent a lot of "lone time" in England. It's a long story and filled with many bittersweet memories. One of those memories was an observation made by a close friend at the time. The friend commented on the beauty of the small English bridges that dotted the landscape in northern England, near York. That one comment has remained with me all those years.

Today, out of the blue, from The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009, p. 212:

The pious inscriptions on a number of rune-stones in Sweden make it clear that in a post-conversion Scandinavia the building of a bridge was considered a peculiarly Christian sort of good deed.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 25, 2019

The next big thing: shortly after I started the blog, I added a site, "the next big thing." It's been fun but it's been awhile since I've added a real game changer as the "next big thing": a partnership between Enterprise and Ford EV. No, don't go looking for that. It's nothing more than a thought, a suggestion, a gleam in my eye.

Sports. Hey, how 'bout them Cowboys? As I suggested on the blog sometime ago, this will be Jason Garrett's last season coaching the Dallas team. Wow, I've never heard a more direct answer to a question than the one Jerry Jones gave when asked about Jason Garrett's future with the Cowboys.

Biggest business news story of last week: Schwab to acquire TD Ameritrade. Previously posted. I don't think we've even begun to hear / see all the ramifications.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: Bloomberg enters the race. Who is most vulnerable? Biden. Bloomberg will skip Iowa, New Hampshire. First primary: South Carolina and then Nevada. Good luck with that.

Second thought: remember smart phone maps/vocal directions when they first came out. Every time you missed a turn, that incessant, annoying "Recalculating. Recalculating. Recalculating."

Well, that's exactly what Hillary is doing now. Bloomberg jumping into the race really, really screwed things up for her. It would seem there would be no overlap between Bloomberg and Hillary, and folks will disagree with me, but if nothing else, his announcement forces Hillary to recalculate. First question to prove my point: imagine Bloomberg and Hillary each have a town hall meeting in same small midwest town on the same night. Who has the bigger crowd? Okay, forget the size of the crowd? Which individual gets most media interest/coverage right now. Who spends time campaigning? Who spends time raising money? NYC: Trump, Hillary, now Bloomberg.

More politics: no link, but easily found:

Fundraising has explosed for the GOP, with the RNC reporting it hauled in $25.3 million during October, 2019, and had $61.4 million in the hopper at month's end. In contrast, the DNC brought in a mere $9 million. At the end of last month, October, 2019, the DNC was $7 million in debt and had only $8.7 million in the kitty. 

The market:

• big day in early trading
• AAPL: wow, who wudda thought? Up $3.56; up 1.33%; trading at $265.27 -- but still below its all-time high, $268
• UNP: same thing, who wudda thought? With recession right around the corner -- Janet Yellen -- who wudda thought UNP would be up $2.67, up 1.52% today. Trading at $178.61, but still below its all-time high of 180.54
• EW: up $3.59; up 1.49%; trading at $244.40; still below its 52-week high of 247.64
• I'm going to quit while I'm ahead. LOL.
• Is anyone hitting new 52-week highs? Let's take a look, from last Friday, previous trading day:
• Dominion Energy
• GE
• Humana
• JPMorgan
• Restoration Hardware
• Tiffany & Co.
• New lows? 
• Basic Energy Services Inc: haven't seen this in a long, long time. It must have been six years ago when I briefly invested in Basic Energy Services (I don't even recall their ticker symbol)
• only ten -- only ten -- listings that hit few 52-week lows -- yes, I know -- recession is right around the corner

Off the net for awhile. 

Eighteen Wells Will Be Reported Off The Confidential List Today -- November 25, 2019

Active rigs:

$57.63	11/25/2019	11/25/2018	11/25/2017	11/25/2016	11/25/2015
Active Rigs	57	62	53	37	65

See initial production for three more incredible CLR Carus wells at this post. 

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today  -- Monday, November 25, 2019: 88 for the month; 189 for the quarter:

• 36236, 0 (no typo), BR, CCU Prairie Rose 1B TFH, Corral Creek, t9/19; cum 00;
• 36138, SI/NC, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36D, Sorkness, no production data,
• 35578, 2,652, CLR, Carus 11-28H, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 132K 9/19;
• 35548, 2,512, CLR, Carus 6-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 120K 9/19;
• 35255, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Olson-LE-150-95-09H-1, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 29608, 738, Slawson, Snakeeyes 8-20-29TFH, Big Bend, t8/19; cum --;

Sunday, November 24, 2019: 82 for the month; 183 for the quarter:

• 35910, SI/NC, WPX, Beaver 22-21HW, Squaw Creek, no production data,
• 35256, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-11, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 35257, SI/NC, , Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-10, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 31616, 25 (no typo), BR, He 6-8-20UTFH, Elidah, t9/19; cum --;

Saturday, November 23, 2019: 78 for the month; 179 for the quarter:

• 35909, SI/NC, WPX, Beaver 22-21HC, Squaw Creek, no production data,
• 35609, 872, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-2, Ross, t6/19; cum 48K 9/19;
• 35604, 1,250, Whiting, Sylte 24-10-2TFH, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 78K 9/19;
• 35549, 1,160, CLR, Carus 5-28H, Cedar Coulee, t9/19; cum 28K 9/19;
• 35258, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-8, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 31615, 10 (no typo), BR, Hefer 7-8-20MBH, Elidah, t9/19; cum --;
• 29921, 1,210, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 43-7 6B, Missouri Ridge, t5/19; cum 94K 9/19;
• 29609, 1,179, Slawson, Snakeeyes 5-20-29TFH, Big Bend, t819; cum --;

RBN Energy: E&P profits, cash flow slips again, but cost controls keep industry in the black. What, me worry? Archived.

With oil and gas prices drifting lower and markets continuing to pummel exploration and production companies, shareholders and analysts approached the third-quarter 2019 earnings season with the sense of impending doom akin to awaiting the results of an IRS audit. There was a lot of talk that the Shale Revolution was fizzling out and that the industry was approaching yet another financial Armageddon, like the 2014-15 oil price crash crisis. But the results belied the worst fears: while lower commodity prices did reduce profits and cash flows, E&Ps as a group remained solidly profitable in the third quarter, with 40 of the 47 companies we track ending up in the black. The reductions in operating income and cash flows were generally in line with lower realizations from oil and gas sales, although lower commodity prices did trigger some write-downs of properties that could no longer be profitably developed. Once again, E&Ps held the line on costs, continuing the financial discipline that fueled the industry’s recovery after the mid-decade price crash. Although producers generally cut back expenditures in line with lower cash flows, increases in drilling efficiency allowed production to keep growing. Today, we examine the financial health of the 47 E&Ps we track in this analysis and the ways they are navigating the price downturn.

As NPR Marketplace radio host Kai Ryssdal likes to say, “Let’s do the numbers.” E&Ps took a double-barreled hit during the third quarter of 2019, as oil and gas prices fell while impairments rose substantially. The 47 E&Ps we follow reported combined pretax operating profits of $6.1 billion profit, or $5.06 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe; blue bar to far right in Figure 1), the lowest since 2017. Pretax operating cash flow fell just short of $20/boe (orange bar to far right in Figure 1). Profits, excluding impairments, and cash flow declined $2.96 billion and $2.73 billion, respectively, virtually matching the $2.76 billion reduction in revenues from lower commodity prices. Impairments totaled nearly $3 billion, double the previous quarter, led by Antero Resources’ $1 billion write-down of its Utica Shale properties. Lifting costs, DD&A (depreciation, depletion and amortization) expenses, and exploration costs were level with the preceding two quarters.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 25, 2019

Monday, December 2, 2019: 115 for the month; 216 for the quarter:
36095, conf, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HUL,
33448, conf, EOG, Clearwater 30-3103H, 
31655, conf, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 11-19 4B,

Sunday, December 1, 2019: 112 for the month; 213 for the quarter:
36417, conf, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltmans Panther 1-16, 
36318, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, 
36317, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH,
35635, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HZ, 
35634, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HA, 
35331, conf, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, 
35330, conf, MRO, Holmgren 41-3H, 
33183, conf, BR, Franklin 44-36TFH,

Saturday, November 30, 2019: 104 for the month; 205 for the quarter:
35636, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HB, 
33184, conf, BR, Franklin 34-36MBH-2NH,
Friday, November 29, 2019: 102 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
36316, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, 
36135, conf, XTO, Sorkness state Federal 34X-36G, 
35637, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HY,
35332, conf, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, 
30108, conf, Oasis, Jensen 5501 43-7 6B,


Thursday, November 28, 2019: 97 for the month; 198 for the quarter:
36136, conf, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, 
35638, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HC,
35587, conf, CLR, Carus 12-28HSL1, 
35333, conf, MRO, Estenson USA 11-2TFH,

Wednesday, November 27, 2019: 93 for the month; 194 for the quarter:
36137, conf, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36H, 
35639, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HX,
35547, conf, CLR, Carus 7-28H, 
30107, conf, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 43-7 5B,

Tuesday, November 26, 2019: 89 for the month; 190 for the quarter:
35640, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HD,

Monday, November 25, 2019: 88 for the month; 189 for the quarter:
36236, conf, BR, CCU Prairie Rose 1B TFH, 
36138, conf, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36D,
35578, conf, CLR, Carus 11-28H,
35548, conf,CLR, Carus 6-28H1, 
35255, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-LE-150-95-09H-1, 
29608, conf, Slawson, Snakeeyes 8-20-29TFH, 

Sunday, November 24, 2019: 82 for the month; 183 for the quarter:
35910, conf, WPX, Beaver 22-21HW,
35256, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-11,
35257, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-10,
31616, conf, BR, He 6-8-20UTFH, 

Saturday, November 23, 2019: 78 for the month; 179 for the quarter:
35909, conf, WPX, Beaver 22-21HC, 
35609, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-2, 
35604, conf, Whiting, Sylte 24-10-2TFH, 
35549, conf, CLR, Carus 5-28H, 
35258, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-8,
31615, conf, BR, Hefer 7-8-20MBH,
29921, conf, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 43-7 6B,
29609, conf, Slawson, Snakeeyes 5-20-29TFH,