Monday, March 28, 2022

ESG Is Dead, Too

Link here

Inside the above tweet / link, is the link: ESG's Russia test -- trial by fire crash and burn?

A keeper.

It begins: 

My views on ESG are not a secret.
I believe that ESG is, at its core, a feel-good scam that is enriching consultants, measurement services and fund managers, while doing close to nothing for the businesses and investors it claims to help, and even less for society. That judgment may be harsh, but as the Russian hostilities in Ukraine shake up markets, the weakest links in the ESG chain are being exposed, and as the same old rationalizations and excuses get rolled out, I believe that a moment of reckoning is arriving for the concept. 
If you remain a true believer, I will leave it up to you to decide how much damage has been done to ESG, and what comes next.

What I love most! The author actually proposes "what comes next":

So, what will the next big thing be? 
I don't know for sure, but I am willing to make a guess, since so many ESG experts and advocates have slipped into already using it as an alternative. 
It is "sustainability", a word that can mean whatever you want it to mean. In its most benign form, I believe that it is just another word for "long term," though the only benefit of replacing one set of words with another is that it offers a chance for those using the new and updated word to state the obvious, claim the outrageous and charge the absurd. 
In its more malignant form, it becomes a way to try to keep corporations alive forever, a dreadful idea, where zombie and walking dead companies suck up capital and resources, and drag the rest of us down into the abyss with them. 

The writer's conclusion:

When I first wrote about ESG two years ago, I did so because I was skeptical of the unquestioning belief that people had in its success. I initially believed that it was a flawed concept that needed fixing , but after two years of interactions with people who claim to know the concept really well, but don't seem to be capable of making solid cases for it, and witnessing its takeover by well heeled entities with agendas, I am convinced that there will soon be room for only two types of people in the ESG space. 
The first will be the useful idiots, well meaning individuals who believe that they are advancing the cause of goodness, as they toil in the trenches of ESG measurement services, ESG arms of consulting firms and ESG investment funds. The second will be the feckless knaves, who know fully well the void behind the concept, but see an opportunity to make money. I know that those are not edifying choices, but I don't see any good ones, other than leaving the space completely. Good luck!

Ukraine's Asymmetrical Warfare -- March 28, 2022

Two days ago I mentioned asymmetrical warfare being used in Ukraine.

Here's an article on some great examples: inside Ukraine's DIY arms industry building improvised grenade launchers and 3D-printed bombs to repel Russia.  

A video I can watch over and over. Link here. Vietnam all over again.

Whiting With Five More Sanish Permits -- March 28, 2022

Active rigs:

$103.0
3/28/202203/28/202103/28/202003/28/201903/28/2018
Active Rigs3414456662

Five new permits, #38853 - #38857, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments (there could be errors; if this is important to you, go to the source):
    • Whiting has permits for five Littlefield wells in NWNW 21-153-91; 
      • to be sited between 445 FNL and 565 FNL and 425 FWL;
      • the five will be drilled from the east to the west / northwest;
      • the drilling units for the five permits (most likely):
        • 38853: 1280-acres (two sections) -- 17/18-153-92; horizontal, generally east-to-west; standard two-section lateral
        • 38854: 3840-acres (six sections) -- 17/18/19/20-153-91 and 13/24-153-92; horizontal, generally east-to-west; extended long lateral (?);
        • 38855: 3840-acres (six sections) -- 17/18/19/20-153-91 and 13/24-153-92; horizontal, generally east-to-west; extended long lateral (?);
        • 38856: 2560-acres (four sections) -- 15/16/21/22-153-91; horizontal west-to-east; standard two-section lateral;
        • 38857: 2560-acres (four sections) -- 15/16/21/22-153-91; horizontal west-to-east; standard two-section lateral;

Still Calling For Regime Change In Moscow -- President Biden -- March 28, 202

Nothing is so bad that things can't get worse. President Joe Biden has that skill set to make it happen. The Oscar slap last night -- an actor walking onto the international televised stage to slap another actor -- some would argue was about as bad as it could get. Well, now breaking news, President Biden has said he has not "walked back" any of his earlier statements regarding "regime change," but stated that "regime change" was not US policy.

The ultimate "face slap"?

And some thought "mean tweets" were uncalled for. 

From a reader:

Academy Awards televised ratings, link here:

The 2022 Oscars drew more viewers than last year’s record-low ceremony, but still fell well below prior years as award shows struggle to attract primetime attention.The nearly four-hour telecast drew 15.36 million viewers according to time-zone-adjusted fast national numbers from Nielsen.

The audience figures show a 56% improvement over the 2021 ceremony, which drew an all-time low of 10.4 million viewers and prompted the Academy and ABC to shake up the program in an attempt to woo more viewers.

Despite the changes, the 2022 Oscars were the second least viewed of all time. Before last year (year of the plague), the ceremony had never dipped below 20 million viewers.

The 2020 ceremony, which aired on 9 February, a more typical date for the program, averaged 23.6 million viewers. The 2019 Oscars, the first year in decades the show aired without a host, drew 29.6 million viewers.

Boston's HIGH Today: Lower Than Its Record Cold Temperature For This Date -- ISO NE -- March 28, 2022

Folks may want to check ISO NE. Things move quickly so by the time you check, prices may have come down, but electricity has just spiked to $240 / MWh. Later: ISO NE has bern in the 8th decile all day. ISO NE will never get above the 8th decile.

So, what's going on?

From a reader: 

  • I have done this quickly, so it may need to be fact checked ...
  • A site said that 
    • today, March 28, 2022, Boston temperature may reach 30 degrees at the airport in the afternoon. It did, if I read readings correctly, and 
    • then drop to ~23 degrees near midnight.
  • Thing is, WAY back in 1893, Boston hit 33 degrees for its-still-record low for this date, March 28.

Later:

  • Looks like airport temp hit 32 degrees, and is turning downward.
  • Still never reached - yet - the 33 degree mark which is the record low for this date.

Later, fact checked, from the same reader:

  • Record low may actually be 11 degrees. 
  • A site 'extreme weather' has Boston's low for March 28 at 11 degrees in 1923. 
  • Next lowest is 20 degrees.

Now, the screenshots to catch this magic moment:
 


EVs, Autonomous Driving, Nvidia -- March 28, 2022

Link here.

One area Nvidia is doubling down on is its autonomous driving platform.

At Nvidia's conference last week, CEO Jensen Huang touted the company’s $11 billion vehicle-tech order pipeline over the next six years.

“Automotive will surely be our next multibillion-dollar business,” Huang told Julie Hyman and Dan Howley in a Yahoo Finance Presents interview. “The $11 billion is going to be quite a significant business for us just in the car. But if you look at the totality of AV, I think this is going to be one of the largest AI industries in the world.”

During the conference, Nvidia put the potential market for auto-related software, hardware and data-center services at $300 billion.

Points out Evercore ISI's Muse, "Advancements across in vehicle technologies, data center capabilities, connectivity, and AI/simulation (Omniverse) are enabling a transformation in the automotive industry today, leading to an estimated $2 trillion opportunity from the monetization of car services over the coming decade (largely led by Autonomous Driving and/or Mobility-as-a-Service)."

EVs are tracked here via "Investors." 

Disruptive:

Vermiliion Announces Strategic Acquisition In The Montney -- March 28, 2022

The Montney is tracked here.

Vermilion Energy, Inc. announces strategic acquisition of multi-decade free cash flow generating Montney assets.

Wow. Link here.

Multi-decade. 

Free-cash-flow.

Globalization As We Know It Is Coming To An End -- March 28, 2022

China's energy crisis: is China "managing" its energy crisis through Covid-19 "management"? It's an interesting question being asked more often. Shenzehn was shut down for Covid but that shutdown lasted only five days when Apple et al weighed in. Now, Shanghai.

Link here.


For now, the answer to that question does not bother me. What bothers me is that, yes, China can manipulate the world economy by simply shutting down one of its mega-cities. China must have at least twenty mega-citiees.

********************************
Globalization As We Know It Is Coming To An End

I was aware some time ago that globalization would not go well, but I am surprised by how much was written about that which I failed to notice. Those articles must have been in obscure economic journals or the Harvard Business Review but now they are appearing daily in mainstream media either as news articles or op-eds.

For me, globalization began during the Clinton presidency, 1993 - 2001. So, 2000 ... two decades later.

******************************
How Putin's War Is Fast Changing Our Energy Future

It will be interesting to see if the Ukraine-Russian war becomes known as "Putin's War." If so, we have, like the "world wars," a Putin War I, a Putin War II, etc. 

Link here.

Seven emerging realities that will alter our lives as global connections fray. 

  • Europe remains heavily dependent on Russian fossil fuels.
  • Petrostates are dysfunctional states prone to starting wars.
  • Oil shocks create economic recessions.
  • The next domino is a fertilizer crisis.
  • The global ties threatened by Putin's war have already reduced local energy security.
  • The green transition already faced daunting challenges.
  • The political groundwork has not been done to prepare the public for lower consumption.

EVs: Electric cars depend on the mining of copper, aluminum, chromium, lithium, lead and other minerals. Oil powers the mining of these minerals while mining accounts for 10 per cent of the global greenhouse gas emissions. On average an electric vehicle requires 183 pounds of copper. As both oil and copper become more expensive to mine, the price of electric vehicles will climb. (An added conundrum: China mines and uses half of the world’s copper.)  

This is why EV investing is not for me. EVs may take over the world; we may see 100% EV penetration, but not in my investing lifetime, and the margin on these vehicles and the cost of getting to 100% penetration will be pretty much shouldered by automobile manufacturers. EV stocks may be a great trading opportunity; they may even be a great investing opportunity, but there are so many other better plays. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Squires Oil Field -- Updated -- March 28, 2022

Squires oil field, just on the outside of Williston, on the north side, has always been one of my favorite Bakken fields. Because it was close to Williston, I drove through it often with my dad. It never was a great field, but a steady field.

Squires oil field is tracked here, but it's no longer updated as much as in the early days. 

Now, it's in the news again.

Current map. Wow, it's expanded. Two new 1920-acre units (red star, blue star); the new 3840-acre overlapping units will incorporate the six sections (various).

In the most recent hearing dockets, April, 2022, these are the cases (not permits):

  • 29284, Oasis, Squires-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; sections 17/20/29-155-102, four wells; Williams County;
  • 29285, Oasis, Squires-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; sections 18/19/30-155-102; four wells, Williams County;
  • 29286, Oasis, Squires-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 17/18/19/20/29/30-155-102; one well; Williams County;
  • 29287, Oasis, Squires-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre units, sections 16/17/20/21/28/29-155-102, one well; Williams;

ATT

April 9, 2022: merger is complete.

March 28, 2022: more details released, Deadline.

  • T to spinoff WarnerMedia
    • WarnerMedia to combine with Discovery
  • ATT to issue a special dividend on April 5, 2022: 0.24 shares of Warner Bros Discovery for every share ATT
  • ATT: two-way trading to begin April 4, shareholders getting option to buy or sell shares of ATT with / without WBD shares
  • ATT quarterly dividend: 28 cents / ATT shares, part of the company's annual dividend of $1.11 after the spinoff closes
    • unusually high number of individual investors, rather than institutions, owning its stock: ATT's dividend is a closely watched obligation on its balance sheet
    • dividend payable May 2, 2022; record date, April 14, 2022
    • in line with previous guidance
  • exact date of closure not specified as of March 25, 2022

Taming A River -- The Red River -- North Dakota -- 1997, 2009, 2011 -- Vern Whitten Photos

Spring in North Dakota: the Red River Valley.

From 1997, Vern Whitten:

Twelve years later, 2009, and again in 2011, Fargo area, Vern Whitten:

Vern Whitten:

Photos available. Mr Whitten would love to hear from you.

Cushing, Midland, And The Keystone XL -- March 28, 2022

Re-posting. Not sure how many folks caught this. Not being reported by other oil analysts.

Oil:

  • US oil exports surge, drawing crude away from Cushing; Midland oil headed to coast;
    • so, what was supposed to "replenish" Cushing? Not mentioned.
    • see below 

"Below":

From the blog, almost seven years ago to the day, link here:

So, if that's true, what is driving oil over $100? It's not the weakness of the dollar. The dollar rose slightly or remained flat, during the rise in the price of oil, so it's not the weakness of the dollar driving the price of oil. 

I can go through a laundry list of likely reasons (which I recently did) but I'll cut to the chase. I think it has to do with the drawdown at Cushing. The Keystone XL 2.0 South is draining Cushing; Keystone XL 2.0 North which was meant to replenish Cushing is not on-line, and probably never will be. Bakken oil should be replenishing Cushing via railroad and existing pipelines, but operators are getting better returns shipping Bakken oil to the east coast and the west coast.

And, it will long be forgotten, but it was President Biden who killed the Keystone XL on his first day in office. 

Notes From Overnight -- March 28, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

BRK-B: why it's hitting all-time highs. The Motley Fool.

Buybacks: US companies setting records. Link to Financial Times

Apple sales? Not so good. Link here. Shares fall in pre-market trading. Still above $170-support.

Apple TV+: wins "Best Picture" Oscar, 2022, 94th Academy Awards; overshadowed by "the slap"

Treasuries: five to 30-year yield curve inverts for first time since 2006. This will be the headline story today on CNBC. By 10:00 a.m. we will have moved on.

Energy transition: "The US and Europe are just now starting to acknowledge that the energy transition will take time [and lots and lots of money] -- ADNOC. Link here

  • Who will get stuck with the bill? Auto manufacturers.
  • EU: currently installing <2,000 public EV charging units each week;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Oil:

  • US oil exports surge, drawing crude away from Cushing; Midland oil headed to coast;
    • so, what was supposed to "replenish" Cushing? Not mentioned.
    • see below
  • WTI: Shanghaied. Simply another buying opportunity.
  • once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: Murphy Oil sees it as opportunity to cut debt.
    • plans to ramp production 11% per quarter this year
    • let's see: 100,000 bopd x 1.11 = 111,000; 123,210; 136,763; 151,807; = 52% for the year?
    • 4Q21: 158,000 boepd; 87,000 bopd; at a 52% increase, y/y, should we see 132,240 bopd next year (2023)?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

From the blog, almost seven years ago to the day, link here:

So, if that's true, what is driving oil over $100? It's not the weakness of the dollar. The dollar rose slightly or remained flat, during the rise in the price of oil, so it's not the weakness of the dollar driving the price of oil.

I can go through a laundry list of likely reasons (which I recently did) but I'll cut to the chase. I think it has to do with the drawdown at Cushing. The Keystone XL 2.0 South is draining Cushing; Keystone XL 2.0 North which was meant to replenish Cushing is not on-line, and probably never will be. Bakken oil should be replenishing Cushing via railroad and existing pipelines, but operators are getting better returns shipping Bakken oil to the east coast and the west coast.

Got coal?


Shanghaied: WTI From $114 To $108 -- March 29, 2022

$114 --> $108: Shanghaied. 

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$108.7
3/28/202203/28/202103/28/202003/28/201903/28/2018
Active Rigs3514456662

Monday, March 28, 2022: 47 for the month, 156 for the quarter, 156 for the year

  • 38295, conf,  CLR, Rolf Federal 11-17HSL, Brooklyn, no production data,
  • 37711, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-9, Alkali Creek, very nice well;
  • 36893, conf, Petroshale, Crockett Federal 1TFH, Bear Den, producing,

Sunday, March 27, 2022: 44 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 153 for the year

  • 38296, conf, CLR, Rolf Federal 10-17H1, Brooklyn, no production data,
  • 37706, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-8, Manitou, nice well;
  • 36894, conf, Petroshale, Boone Federal 1MBH, Bear Den, producing; albeit, not much;

Saturday, March 26, 2022: 41 for the month, 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year 

  • 36889, conf, Petroshale, Clark Federal 2TFH, Bear Den, producing; albeit, not much;
Friday, March 25, 2022: 40 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year
  • 38297, drl, CLR, Rolf Federal 9-17H, Brooklyn, no production data,
  • 36890, loc/A, Petroshale, Lewis Federal 2MBH, Bear Den, producing; albeit, not much;

RBN Energy: E&P CAPEX and production guidance, and why they aren't doing more, part 2

There’s a lot of confusion out there — both in the media and the general public — about how producers in the U.S. oil and gas industry plan their operations for the months ahead and the degree to which they could ratchet up their production to help alleviate the current global supply shortfall and help bring down high prices. It’s not as simple or immediate as some might imagine. There are many reasons why E&Ps are either reluctant or unable to quickly increase their crude oil and natural gas production. Capital budgets are up in 2022 by an average of 23% over 2021. That increase seems substantial, but about two-thirds (15%) results from oilfield service inflation. And there are other headwinds as well. In today’s RBN blog, we drill down into the numbers with a look at producers’ capex and production guidance for 2022, the sharp decline in drilled-but-uncompleted wells, the impact of inflation and other factors that weigh on E&Ps today.