A Closer Look At The MRO DUCs Reported As Completed Today -- February 16, 2022

From today's daily activity report, MRO reports ten DUCs completed:

Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38000, 3,924, MRO, Bowman USA 41-18H, Van Hook,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	42618	41963	25015	38401	35805	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	28	37000	37458	28865	31818	29361	150
BAKKEN	10-2021	22	41542	40942	33468	34300	31526	233

• 38001, 1,119, MRO, Blackburn USA 41-18TFH, Van Hook,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	22067	21720	37460	22097	20739	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	23	17073	17032	32935	15387	14246	83
BAKKEN	10-2021	4	1745	1720	4702	721	609	0

• 38025, 3,515, MRO, Osking USA 14-12H, Lost Bridge, 55K over 22 days extrapolates to 75K over 30 days;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	22	55207	54707	30348	74726	56866	14086

• 38026, 2,310, MRO, Goddard USA 41-4TFH, McGregory Buttes,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	15	28618	28287	33797	29784	27949	85

• 37744, 1,575, MRO, Eugene USA 33-14TFH, Moccasin Creek,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	30	23629	23589	30959	21222	19511	288
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	24808	24765	36035	22154	20524	143
BAKKEN	10-2021	18	16687	17434	23380	12394	11446	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	18	23898	23038	37684	16343	13695	889

• 37175, 2,905, MRO, Kenyon 41-16TFH, Killdeer,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	27623	27621	44997	20292	18282	127
BAKKEN	11-2021	21	31239	31527	59949	24343	22004	140
BAKKEN	10-2021	12	19685	19148	64033	12162	6444	4364

• 37159, 3,195, MRO, Gustav 44-9TFH, Killdeer,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	27	21364	21364	34128	18373	16874	42
BAKKEN	11-2021	15	24304	24110	35063	15248	13416	222

• 37387, 2,087, MRO, Hausauer 14-22TFH, Killdeer,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	30	21994	22063	50754	15562	12962	1025
BAKKEN	11-2021	25	28203	27924	70459	13917	11636	412

• 37973, 2,767, MRO, Edyth USA 41-4H, McGregory Buttes,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	4	8052	7774	6930	6874	5794	620

• 37315, 3,611, MRO, Gunter 11-15TFH, Killdeer,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	29	27685	27688	42828	19770	17720	160
BAKKEN	11-2021	26	31805	31551	63367	21367	19005	202

Ten DUCs Reported As Completed; No New Permits; WTI Falls Back Below $94 -- February 16, 2022

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$93.66	2/16/2022	02/16/2021	02/16/2020	02/16/2019	02/16/2018
Active Rigs	33	15	56	64	56

No new permits.

Four permits renewed:

• Sinclair: two Porcupine permits in Dunn County;
• Petroshale: one Bear chase North permit in McKenzie County;
• Slawson: one Armada Federal permit in Mountrail County;

Two permits canceled:

• Oasis: two Wren Federal permits in Williams County;

Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38000, 3,924, MRO, Bowman USA 41-18H, Van Hook,
• 38001, 1,119, MRO, Blackburn USA 41-18TFH, Van Hook,
• 38025, 3,515, MRO, Osking USA 14-12H, Lost Bridge,
• 38026, 2,310, MRO, Goddard USA 41-4TFH, McGregory Buttes,
• 37744, 1,575, MRO, Eugene USA 33-14TFH, Moccasin Creek,
• 37175, 2,905, MRO, Kenyon 41-16TFH, Killdeer,
• 37159, 3,195, MRO, Gustav 44-9TFH, Killdeer,
• 37387, 2,087, MRO, Hausauer 14-22TFH, Killdeer,
• 37973, 2,767, MRO, Edyth USA 41-4H, McGregory Buttes,
• 37315, 3,611, MRO, Gunter 11-15TFH, Killdeer, 

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- Dated Brent Trades For $100.80 -- February 26, 2022

For the archives:

Canada: now freezing bank accounts of those trying to fund Canada's Truck Convoy. I have finally lost any emotional interest in Canada, its Keystone XL, and any other pipeline problems it may have in the future. Trudeau's true colors showing. A banana republic pipsqueak. 

GM Bolt: Only 25 cars were sold in the fourth quarter, compared to 6,701 vehicles a year earlier. Posted elsewhere: : 2021 update over at Microsoft News. And, here.

For investors:

• eight high-dividend stocks "everyone" is racing to buy, IBD:
• DVN, WMB, PM, MO, KMI, DOW, OKE, VZ

MRO, link here:

• Capex: $1.2 billion
• at $80 / bbl:
• will result in excess of $3.0 billion of free cash flow at a reinvestment rate of less than 30%

Brent: dated Brent reached $100.80 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 2014. Reminder: WTI generally trades one dollar less than Brent right now. 

Gasoline demand, link here:

Berkshire Hathaway -- Quarterly Update -- 4Q21

Link here.

• Berkshire Hathaway's 13F stock portfolio value increased from ~$293B to ~$331B.
• Their largest three holdings are at over two-thirds of the entire portfolio.
• Berkshire Hathaway increased Chevron while reducing AbbVie, Marsh & McLennan, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Visa, and Royalty Pharma during the quarter. They also dropped Teva.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp.: BK is a 1.27% of the 13F portfolio stake. The bulk of the original position was purchased in Q2 2012 at prices between $19.50 and $25. Recent activity follows: 2017 saw a ~180% increase at prices between $43.50 and $55 while 2018 saw another one-third increase at prices between $44.50 and $58.50. The stock currently trades at $62.23. Berkshire’s cost-basis on BK is ~$46 per share and ownership stake is 8.4%.

This article concerns only 13F filings. 

Annual report for BRK is expected to be released on/about February 26, 2022.

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- February 16, 2022

Link here.

• US crude oil inventories increased by a paltry 1.1 million bbls; now stands at 411.5 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories are 10% below the five-year average
• it's important to note that the most recent five years has been relatively "fat" compared to earlier reporting periods; despite all this hand-wringing over declining inventories, the US is in great shape; oil supply is not the problem with price of gasoline
• US crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million bbls per day last week; decreased by 0.6 million bopd from previous week. Yawn.
• on average, over last four weeks, crude oil imports average 6.4 million bpd, 9.3% more than same period last year
• think: California; East Coast; and refiners needing heavy oil to balance out glut of light oil
• refiners operating at 85.3% operating capacity which seems to be one of the lowest reported in recent memory; generally expect about 87%, maybe 89% but 85% seems significantly less than expected; spring switchover / maintenance prior to driving season
• production for both gasoline and distillate fuel decreased last week
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million bbls last week; 19% below the five-year average
• jet fuel supplied was up 28% compared with same four-week period last year

WTI Back Over $94; One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- February 16, 2022

Active rigs:

$94.23	2/16/2022	02/16/2021	02/16/2020	02/16/2019	02/16/2018
Active Rigs	23	15	56	64	56

Wednesday, February 16, 2022: 33 for the month, 88 for the quarter, 88 for the year

• 38384, conf, Petro-Hunt, Murphy 162-100-4B-9-2H,West Ambrose, not exactly tier 1 location, but look at this production;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	12740	12795	20626	7224	6048	1025
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	16620	17259	33078	9667	7542	2125
BAKKEN	10-2021	4	1185	0	3807	855	671	184

RBN Energy: how global prices steer US LNG to different destinations. 

Even as winter starts to wind down, global natural gas prices remain elevated as rising tensions between Russia and the Western world have destabilized European energy markets and pushed LNG, and U.S. LNG in particular, to center stage. From a markets perspective, the story of the past year has been high global gas prices — a strong incentive for LNG producers to push production facilities to operate at peak capacity and produce additional cargoes. 

The tight market has also spurred demand for new long-term sales and purchase agreements (SPAs), creating momentum for a potential new wave of LNG development. But while gas prices in Europe and Asia have been elevated all year, they have not been elevated evenly. The Asia-Europe price spread has swung dramatically from favoring Asia last spring and summer to favoring Europe this winter, and U.S. export destinations have swung with it. 

Last summer, almost no destination-flexible LNG produced in the U.S. was landing in Europe and now Europe is consuming U.S. LNG at record levels. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how global price spreads impact U.S. LNG export destinations and what the strength in European demand means for the future of LNG development.

California Gasoline Price -- Hit All-Time High; Inflation, Oil, Ukraine -- The Three Top Stories Today -- Headlines From Social Media -- February 16, 2022

Opening thoughts: 

Say what you want but it's obvious energy demand is going to put a huge strain on supply; the US will be the global supplier of all things energy; Russia will remain a distant third but could give #2 Saudi a run for its money. Think about that: when it comes to energy, Russia is #2 or #3 and Russia's economy is smaller than the economy of Texas. 

Is Russia's pre-occupation with Ukraine related more to Russia's economy than "geopolitics"? Could it all be about wheat? China and India, forever, will be consumers. The current administration will do what it can to thwart US energy but it's hard to stop a train. But for anyone paying attention, the headlines are absolutely amazing. 

And the biggest mystery: the real reason US shale companies are holding back on more drilling?

Oil:

• sudden surge suggests incursion imminent
• earlier, Ukraine president (jokingly) said the incursion would begin February 16, 2022
• it appears, WTI is now settled into a $90s trading range
• from The WSJ: despite pleas from President Biden to increase production, Saudi says it will stick with deal it made with Russia to maintain existing quotas
• as predicted, California today hit an all-time high retail price of $4.719 / gallon, the highest price in US history; cost to fill a Hummer: $198 with is 42-gallon tank;
• geopolitical risk premium in oil this morning: $6; others say $7
• which on the other hand means WTI still sits comfortably at $87
• IEA's Birol: counting on additional oil output from the US and Brazil will ease pressure on prices; doesn't look to OPEC+ for any assistance, and IEA is OPEC
• IEA's Birol: tells OPEC it is lagging in meeting output targets
• IEA's Birol: almost starting to sound frantic
  
• India: demand for gasoline, diesel rises;

Russia:

• for those keeping track at home, the Texas economy is bigger than the Russian economy

Ukraine:

• US says no evidence of Russia pullback
• did any mainstream media outlet even cover the story that Russian Parliament this week voted to invade Ukraine -- not in so many words, but that was the "hidden message"
• over at FlightRadar24, four of the top five aircraft being followed are small Lear-like jets flying west from Kiev to eastern Ukraine; the fifth one is RC-135, River Joint, flying multiple tracks over Lviv, west Ukraine
  

Investing:

• analysts are still too conservative estimating profits, free cash flow going forward for Big Oil, shale oil; 

Investing Club:

• Devon

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Popsicle stick measurements?

• the absurdity continues; we have data showing liinear <3 millimeters rise per year trend with 95% confidence (+/1 0.21 mm / year) from the NOAA dating back o the 1930. These scientists are suggesting 304 mm in 25 years.
• the reference is to the popsicle sticks I put in the sand at the San Pedro beach years ago to track rising sea levels; markings in 1-mm increments. That was before Sophia was born.
  

Covid:

• horrific increase in number of extreme poor throughout world ... pandemic has caused largest poverty reversal (+80 million) in three dacades -- FT
• Switzerland: to end all restrictions by end-March, including masking; back to normal.

Say what?

• US regulators will deny approval citing monopoly: link here.
• $1.5 billion deal

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has privately informed EP Energy and EnCap that it would sue to block their deal if they went ahead with it, the sources said. The regulator is concerned that EnCap - which owns XCL Resources, another Utah oil producer - would become too dominant a player in Utah's Uinta Basin, the sources added.

Utah

• $185 million deal
• Crescent Energy to acquire EP Energy Utah assets

Desperate:

• Dems, White House to eliminate federal tax on gasoline; talk
• exact opposite if want to push EVs
• once removed, will be near-impossible to reinstate
• huge opportunity for states to increase state taxes on gasoline but they won't
  

SPR release:

• for the archives only; incredibly unimportant; link here;
  
• 18 million bbls released:
• XOM: 0.5 million (are you kidding me?)
• Gunvor USA LLC: 1.5 million bbls; wiki entry here;
  
• MPC: 3.9 million bbls
• Motiva Enterprises: 3 million bbls
• Phillips 66: 1 million bbls
• Valero Marketing ...: 82 million bbls
• when I see XOM taking one-half million bbls this suggests the company simply gave an intern something to do to build her resume.
• when I see none of the top three oil traders in the world not have a winning bid, it tells me all I need to know how much excitement this release stirred. Can you imagine the contract hoops required by bidders? And then the history of the current US administration vacating permits.
  

 Gunvor?

Gunvor Group Ltd is a Cypriot-domiciled multinational commodity trading company registered in Cyprus, with its main trading office in Geneva, Switzerland.

Gunvor also has trading offices in Singapore, the Bahamas, and Dubai, with a network of representative offices around the globe. The company operates in the trade, transport, storage and optimization of petroleum and other energy products, as well as having investments in oil terminal and port facilities. 

Its operations consist of securing crude oil upstream and delivering it to market via pipelines and tankers.

The company, which was founded in 2000, is the fourth largest crude oil trader in the world after Glencore, Vitol, and Trafigura.

The company was co-founded and controlled by Gennady Timchenko together with Torbjörn Törnqvist (after whose mother the company is named); however, due to United States sanctions, Timchenko sold his stake in the company to Törnqvist in March 2014 (wink, wink).

Gunvor's largest single supplier of crude oil was once Russia, though the company now originates most of its crude oil from the Americas, with less than 13 percent coming from Russia.

It also trades African, Asian, and South-American crude and is active on all continents.

In 2011, Gunvor was trading less than 20% of Russia's seaborne oil.