Social Security COLA To Be Announced, Thursday, October 12, 2023, Mid-Morning (?)

Locator: 45730COLA.

Update

October 12, 2023: 3.2%. Inflation tamed.

Original Post

Hunch: 3.2%. Anything higher will be a pleasant surprise for seniors. Anything lower will be unexpected.

The date on which the Social Security Administration will announce the COLA increase 2024 is Thursday, October 12, 2023. 

As for what time exactly the COLA increase 2024 will be revealed, we know that September's price index is scheduled to be published at 08:30 ET on Thursday, October 12, 2023. 

This is the final dataset need to complete the COLA formulas, so the exact amount can be worked out shortly after that Thursday morning announcement.

Anticipation. 

A tame inflation report on Thursday would likely kill the prospect of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, despite signs of continued strength in the labor market.

Fed officials are watching the consumer-price index, and other data, as they mull whether another rate hike this year will be necessary to keep inflation declining.

• Economists surveyed by The WSJ estimate consumer prices rose 0.3% in September from the prior month and 3.6% from a year earlier. That would represent cooling from the 0.6% monthly increase and the 3.7% 12-month rate in August, which was driven by higher energy prices. 
• When excluding volatile food and energy items, those economists see so-called core prices also increasing 0.3% in September, the same as the prior month’s increase and a continuation of mild readings through the summer months. They estimate core prices rose 4.1% in September from a year earlier, down from the prior month’s 4.3%.

Water Flooding -- Unremarkable -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45729EOR.  

From 2012, water flooding EOR begins.

Results? Look incredibly unexciting. May be why we're not hearing much about water flooding in the Bakken.

Going For The Jugular -- Egos Getting In The Way Of Serious Negotiations? October 11, 2023

Locator: 45728UAW.  

Going for broke. Link here.

This was completely out of the blue. 

No pun intended.

This speaks volumes:

Again, for those who have forgotten, Shawn Fain is asking for 40% wage increase for "legacy" workers, and 60% increase for new hires, as well as end of two-tier pay scheme.

One Of Many CLR Wells In This Area -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45727B. 

CLR's Gale / Rodney wells are tracked here.

The well:

• 37407, conf-->loc/NC-->A, CLR, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production; a nice well; cum 300K 8/23;

Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 8-2023 31 9025 9036 6874 26472 25710 374 BAKKEN 7-2023 31 10460 10521 7666 26268 25842 51 BAKKEN 6-2023 30 11699 11685 10015 27516 26986 159 BAKKEN 5-2023 31 12356 12333 11650 26069 25474 184 BAKKEN 4-2023 30 15094 15078 12261 27391 27016 7 BAKKEN 3-2023 27 15517 15649 12435 27352 26873 148 BAKKEN 2-2023 28 21387 21282 18405 33168 32457 314 BAKKEN 1-2023 14 13798 13646 12777 21121 20646 290 BAKKEN 12-2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 11-2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 10-2022 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 9-2022 5 1006 1011 1344 1718 1663 19 BAKKEN 8-2022 3 1017 1120 1226 1855 1797 23 BAKKEN 7-2022 31 15477 15432 18098 25880 25291 136 BAKKEN 6-2022 21 11405 11467 12371 14998 14437 245 BAKKEN 5-2022 31 23831 23920 15536 27715 26877 430 BAKKEN 4-2022 30 23991 23945 16454 32803 32166 511 BAKKEN 3-2022 31 37688 37682 23862 51074 50009 371 BAKKEN 2-2022 28 36315 36288 22045 46328 46029 184 BAKKEN 1-2022 31 33252 33135 23728 38437 37663 652 BAKKEN 12-2021 5 5745 5718 4202 6661 6495 145 BAKKEN 11-2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 10-2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 9-2021 3 845 845 2699 361 0 361 BAKKEN 8-2021 1 0 0 17 0 0 0

It all started with this parent well, now 15 years old:

• 17211, 240, CLR, Gale 1-32H, Cedar Coulee, t8/08; cum 211K 8/23;

BAKKEN	2-2023	28	2734	2738	4225	4858	4811	47
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	3376	3386	5453	6092	6007	85
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	3527	3496	5028	1774	1746	28
BAKKEN	11-2022	15	1706	1737	2691	2680	2617	63
BAKKEN	10-2022	25	3131	3115	5104	441	440	1
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	3424	3423	6614	452	449	3
BAKKEN	8-2022	22	2232	2233	6470	4332	4277	55
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	4089	4075	6730	6215	6182	33
BAKKEN	6-2022	21	2627	2625	4634	4135	4066	69
BAKKEN	5-2022	18	2714	2740	4288	2026	1995	31
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	4406	4383	7478	2638	2597	41
BAKKEN	3-2022	24	3902	3884	7218	5664	5622	42
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	22	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	17	5059	5043	13596	5443	5350	93
BAKKEN	12-2021	4	1203	1197	3066	1272	1244	28
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	29	124	1	1	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	1	97	0	2	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	28	746	1294	290	958	0	587
BAKKEN	6-2020	2	26	0	32	43	0	19
BAKKEN	5-2020	17	263	0	90	436	0	206
BAKKEN	4-2020	28	476	240	142	733	0	371
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	522	753	167	804	30	356
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	481	550	137	737	347	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	520	571	168	743	324	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	508	299	133	761	342	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	501	563	157	761	356	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	513	554	177	741	314	8
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	493	546	145	759	357	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	504	298	142	906	487	0

The maps:

Shale 3.0 -- Dan Pickering -- XOM-PXD -- Active Rigs In North Dakota Jump To 38 -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45726B. 

Later, 7:34 p.m., October 11, 2023: I saw the same thing -- very strange -- 

October 11, 2023: Dan Pickering --

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 38.

WTI: $83.49.

Two new permits, #40248 - #40249, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill, Hess
• Field: Cow Creek (Williams); Oliver (Oliver)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has a Tufto permit, NENW 18-15-100, 
• to be sited 386 FNL aand 1961 FWL
• Hess has a GO-Olson-157-98-2536H-2, NWNW 25-157-98; 
• to be sited 741 NFFL and 666 FWL

Four permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill: four Marilyn permits, Williams County, Painted Woods;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37613, 0, BR, Pullman 3A MBH-ULW,
• 37880, 252, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH,
• 39176, 1,029, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H,
• 39178, 1,029, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H,

Wells of interest:

• 21495, off-line;
• 21899, off-line; back to production; nice results;
  

OMG — API: Oil In Storage Jumps Almost 13 Million Bbls; WTI Tumbles — Not A Good Day To Spend $60 Billion On Oil -- Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Locator: 45725API.

Link here.

Clearing Off The Desk -- Again -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45724BOOKS. 

As noted earlier, I am reading Linda Porter's 1995 biography of Mary 1, the first queen of England. I'm about halfway through the book; Henry VIII had just died leaving a widow queen, Katherine Parr, and at least three who could claim rights to the throne: Henry's third child, and first son; his first daughter, Mary, and, his second daughter. 

At the time of Henry's death, Edward was nine years old and older men would rule for him until he reached majority. He died at the age of sixteen. Mary, about 31 years old was old enough to be Edward's mother and in many respects she was. He had never know his own mother, Jane Seymour, who died shortly after he was born. The third stepchild, was Elizabeth, about 13 years old, and very closer in age to her younger brother. 

And, then the intrigue begins.

Break, break.

This intrigue about the rights to the throne after Henry VIII dies is incredibly interesting, and I am reading the story at exactly the same time that it's being reported that Exxon will buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion. With the agreement, comes a $20-billion termination fee. I don't know how these things play out, but if Elizabeth Warren is able to influence the regulators to quash the deal, I assume there is no termination fee, unless, of course, the regulators allow the deal with some caveats that Exxon may not be willing to accept. 

As noted, I have no idea of how this works. And, I'm sure if it goes to court anything can happen.

Meanwhile, there are rumors that OXY is now interested and willing to pay $75 billion. Again, just rumors. 

Some say they've seen OXY's jet winging its way to Omaha, NE. 

Meanwhile, XOM's stock has fallen significantly in value today.

So, just as the throne of England was up for grabs after Henry VIII died, so it seems the Permian assets of Pioneer Natural Resources are also up for grabs.

This is just rambling comments by someone who knows not how these things work. Take it all with a grain of salt.

*****************************
API 

Pending. Amazing how really poor "google" is for real-time results, but that's another story. Twitter is so much better.

***************************
State Rule

From Bloomberg law today:

Clearing Off The Desk -- Again -- October 11, 2023

As noted earlier, I am reading Linda Porter's 1995 biography of Mary 1, the first queen of England. I'm about halfway through the book; Henry VIII had just died leaving a widow queen, Katherine Parr, and at least three who could claim rights to the throne: Henry's third child, and first son; his first daughter, Mary, and, his second daughter. 

At the time of Henry's death, Edward was nine years old and older men would rule for him until he reached majority. He died at the age of sixteen. Mary, about 31 years old was old enough to be Edward's mother and in many respects she was. He had never know his own mother, Jane Seymour, who died shortly after he was born. The third stepchild, was Elizabeth, about 13 years old, and very closer in age to her younger brother. 

And, then the intrigue begins.

Break, break.

This intrigue about the rights to the throne after Henry VIII dies is incredibly interesting, and I am reading the story at exactly the same time that it's being reported that Exxon will buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion. With the agreement, comes a $20-billion termination fee. I don't know how these things play out, but if Elizabeth Warren is able to influence the regulators to quash the deal, I assume there is no termination fee, unless, of course, the regulators allow the deal with some caveats that Exxon may not be willing to accept. 

As noted, I have no idea of how this works. And, I'm sure if it goes to court anything can happen.

Meanwhile, there are rumors that OXY is now interested and willing to pay $75 billion. Again, just rumors. 

Some say they've seen OXY's jet winging its way to Omaha, NE. 

Meanwhile, XOM's stock has fallen significantly in value today.

So, just as the throne of England was up for grabs after Henry VIII died, so it seems the Permian assets of Pioneer Natural Resources are also up for grabs.

This is just rambling comments by someone who knows not how these things work. Take it all with a grain of salt.

*****************************
API 

Pending. Amazing how really poor "google" is for real-time results, but that's another story. Twitter is so much better.

***************************
State Rule

From Bloomberg law today:

*************************
Synonyms

Raze.

Gaza.

Hamas.

The question: which way do the Gaza refugees flee?

I know about the geopolitics in this area but looking at the map, they have but one choice.

The big question: why now? Why did Hamas attack now. Not two months ago; not six months ago; not a year from now? Al Jezeera provides three reasons, two of which are nothing new. The third reason: normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were but a weekend away. 

Al-Jezeera notes that it appears that Hamas has no end-games, and from the perspective of some, Hamas by showing atrocities on television has overplayed its hand.

Note: it goes without saying that US politics is such that President Biden has but one choice.

Al-Jezeera also notes that Hezbollah has not opened a second front. Hezbollah has shown a little response but this is mostly for show and the Israelis have now had time to prepare for a second front.

EV Manufacturers Raising Cash And Their Investors' Response -- October 11, 2023

Polestar:

• wants to raise money;
• stock is falling.
• link here.

From the linked article: 

A potential capital raise from Swedish electric-vehicle maker Polestar Automotive has its American depositary receipts sliding. That says more about Polestar investors than about the company.

Polestar (ticker: PSNY) showed its intention to raise $1 billion. That isn’t a shock. Still, the hint of new capital is pushing down shares sharply.

Tuesday evening, Polestar filed a “shelf” registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission. There are no immediate plans to sell shares or raise debt. A shelf registration gives the company the option to sell securities by registering them ahead of time. A company has securities “on the shelf” ready to sell when the time is right. It isn’t a great name.

The filing isn’t unusual. The stock reaction shows how skittish investors have become over EV start-ups’ need to raise additional money.

Rivian stock dropped about 23% on Oct. 5 after announcing plans to sell $1.5 billion in convertible notes. Everyone knows or should know, that Rivian will need more capital to build its business. Wall Street doesn’t project positive cash flow for most of this decade. Still, investors and Wall Street reacted harshly with reasons given ranging from the timing was poor to the raise was a surprise.

Clearing Off The Desktop -- October 11, 2023

AAPL:

• QCOM: to take on Apple's Silicon.
• Discover.
• Teens: 87% have Apple iPhones.
• what surprises me most: how many of my contacts still have non-Apple iPhones (about one out of twenty)

Samsung:

• 87% drop in profits;

Polestar:

• wants to raise money;
• stock is falling.
• link here.
  

Next Fed decision? Anyone's bet. My hunch: pause.

• The WSJ: pause.
• CNBC: inflation not going away.

Germany: 

• imploding: Peter Zeihan.
• trading partners: Russia and China
• skilled labor aging out
• energy: stuck with lignite.

Legacy Fund Deposits -- September, 2023

Locator: 45722LEGACYFUND.

Link here.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45721B.

Note: I assume the weekly EIA report will be delayed a day.

WTI: $85.14.

Friday, October 13, 2023: 29 for the month; 29 for the quarter, 599 for the year
39430, conf, Petro-Hunt, D Annunzio 148-102-6B-7-1H
39333, conf, CLR, Hegler 6-13H,
38274, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-4,

Thursday, October 12, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
None.

Wednesday, October 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H,

RBN Energy: strong crude oil prices driving robust Canadian M&A activity. 

Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity in Canada’s oil and gas sector has accelerated this year compared to 2022. With crude oil prices generally strengthening over the course of 2023, it should come as no surprise that the focus of much of this activity has been crude oil- and NGL-producing companies and assets. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, several large deals have been announced and many have already closed, including a complex arrangement involving Suncor and production ownership in the oil sands that only recently concluded after six months of uncertainty, with more deals expected before the year is over.

The ebb and flow of corporate wheeling and dealing is just as familiar in the Canadian oil and gas sector as it is the U.S. When times are tough, the exploration and production companies (E&Ps) that squirreled away money and remain financially comfortable can swoop in and purchase assets or entire companies that are in trouble, adding to their production base to (presumably) generate greater value from those assets in the future.

When times are good — such as in 2023, when crude oil prices have been strong and mostly rising — cash is more plentiful for all companies and M&A fever can really take off. Acquiring E&Ps look to expand their production base with quality assets, while sellers may be shifting gears, looking to consolidate their production around a certain geographic focus, or simply selling to get a financial lifeline to pay down that pending bank loan. Whatever the driving force might be, M&A activity in Canada’s oil and gas sector has been on the upswing.

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- August, 2023

Locator: 45720SAUDI.

Link here.