It's Going To Be A Circus -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45484POL.

XTO Renewed Seven Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed — Gasoline Demand Dampened By WFH Crowd -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45483B.

Gasoline demand, link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: 40.

Two new permits, #40126 - #40128, inclusive:

• Operators: Summit Carbon Storage (2); MRO
• Fields: Oliver; Murphy Creek (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Summit Carbon has permits for two KJ Hintz "wells" in Oliver County; NENE 17-142-86; 
• to be sited 546 FEL with one "well" 426 FNL and the other, 526 FNL.

Seven permits renewed:

• XTO: XTO renewed several permits in Williams and McKenzie counties -- Marmon Federal (Williams); Prairie Federal (3 - McKenzie County) and Harley Federal (3 - McKenze County)

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39110, 3,473, MRO, Luhhman 41-13H,
• 39122, 3,369, Grayson Mill, Cherrey 34-27 4H,

Wow! Is Anyone Paying Attention? 5.8 -- Most Recent GDP Estimate, 3Q23 -- This Does Not Look Like A Soft Landing To Me -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45482ECON.

And?

What if? Link here.

 

Once folks understand this ... wow, Katy, bar the door!

Original Post

Based on Liz Sonder's graphics posted earlier this morning, the new GDP estimate is not surprising.

5.8.

I really wish, we could have a quiet, radio-fireside-chat by a senior statesman -- perhaps a person like Joe Biden -- who could talk about the week's events in a quiet, dignified manner -- the economy would no doubt be the theme for this week's show.

Reminiscing. I feel fortunate to have watched many of these Friday night shows:

Today, GDPNow:

This does not look like a soft landing to me. Yes, I know, it's just a snapshot in time. 

Tech Update -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45481TECH.

 

Tech: CPUs, GPUS, cores, threads and all that jazz --

• part one: link here.
• part two: link here.
• part three: link here.
• part four: part four.

Definition:

Then (a few months ago):

Now (September, 2023):

Simple addition:

• 32 CPUs + 80 GPU cores = 112 cores on the M3 chip.
• in the "old" days, your computer was a single CPU.
• the M3 is using 3nm technology
• to the best of my knowledge, no other manufacturer of consumer electronics uses 3nm architecture and/or upwards of 112 cores on a single chip -- needs to be fact-checked.
  

No one else in the industry is even coming close. This blows away the competition. Need to fact check.

Liz Sonders Says: Robust Economy -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45480ECON.

 

But first:

Link to Liz Sonders over at twitter (X) -- you're on your own, here.

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Target 

 

Not surprising. 

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Over At CNBC

Link here.

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The Book Club

The book today:

Flavius Josephus: Eyewitness to Rome's First-Century Conquest to Judea, Mireille Hadas-Lebel, translated by Richard Miller, c. 1993.

Notes.

Wiki.

Flavius Josephus, c. AD 37 – c. 100, was a Roman–Jewish historian and military leader. Best known for writing The Jewish War, he was born in Jerusalem—then part of the Roman province of Judea—to a father of priestly descent and a mother who claimed royal ancestry.

He initially fought against the Roman Empire during the First Jewish–Roman War as general of the Jewish forces in Galilee, until surrendering in AD 67 to the Roman army led by military commander Vespasian after the six-week siege of Yodfat. 

Fascinating: Josephus claimed the Jewish messianic prophecies that initiated the First Jewish–Roman War made reference to Vespasian becoming Roman emperor. In response, Vespasian decided to keep Josephus as a slave and presumably interpreter. After Vespasian became emperor in AD 69, he granted Josephus his freedom, at which time Josephus assumed the Emperor's family name of Flavius. 

Flavius Josephus fully defected to the Roman side and was granted Roman citizenship. He became an advisor and friend of Vespasian's son Titus, serving as his translator when Titus led the siege of Jerusalem in AD 70. Since the siege proved ineffective at stopping the Jewish revolt, the city's pillaging and the looting and destruction of Herod's Temple (Second Temple) soon followed.

Josephus recorded the Great Jewish Revolt (AD 66–70), including the siege of Masada. 

His most important works were The Jewish War (c. 75) and Antiquities of the Jews (c. 94). 

The Jewish War recounts the Jewish revolt against Roman occupation. Antiquities of the Jews recounts the history of the world from a Jewish perspective for an ostensibly Greek and Roman audience. These works provide valuable insight into first century Judaism and the background of Early Christianity. 

Fascinating: Josephus's works are the chief source next to the Bible for the history and antiquity of ancient Israel, and provide a significant and independent extra-Biblical account of such figures as Pontius Pilate, Herod the Great, John the Baptist, James the Just, and possibly Jesus of Nazareth.

So, now, we start to get an idea of where the stories of Pontius Pilate, et al, originated -- not just the Bible. 

So, I'm 70+ years old; raised in a Christian family; confirmed under a very, very rigorous religion program; an avid reader, and yet I completely missed this biography -- how can that happen?

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Always A Surprise -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45479OIL.

WTI at $80.76.

Link here:

• US crude oil in storage declined by a respectable 6.0 million bbls and supplies are now 1% below the five -year average.
• US crude oil imports, 7.2 million bpd last week; four-week average, 6.7 million bpd
• US refiners operating at 94.7% of their capacity; pedal to the metal
• distillates increased very, very slightly; still 16% below the five-year average
• jet fuel supplied was up a respectable 4.6%

WTI: $80.72.

US implied oil demand rose by almost one million bpd last week (actual: 936,000 bpd)

• implied demand stands at 21.773 million bpd; round numbers, 22 million bopd
• the US is producing about12.5 million bopd?

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Saudi Arabia's Exports -- At 21-Month Low

Link here.

Exports: just 6.80 million bopd -- and prices not high enough to meet budgetary requirements.

Streaming -- Milestone -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45478STREAMING.
Locator: 45478STV.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

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Got Nielsen?

TV now accounts for less than half of US viewing for the first time. Link here.

Poor timing? Well, it was five years ago.

Maybe she returned. I don't know. I don't watch the show, but my wife did / does. I forget. I'll have to ask.

From the linked article: 

By the way, note which "streaming service" is not mentioned from the story above -- the screenshot again:

The drivers: link here --

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Now, Where's That ChatGPT Link

In Texas, everything is bigger -- even the homework assignments.

Around The Horn -- Hump Day -- August 16, 2023

OFF THE NET -- Biking. Back shortly.

Locator: 45477B.

Tell me again Americans are broke. Shoppers boost retail sales for fourth straight month. GDPNow with revised reading later today. Pulling money out of their 401(k)s to buy shoes or putting it on credit?

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Tech Today

NVDA: $500, target. Multiple sources. Up about $3.50 pre-market.

INTC: scraps Tower acquisition. The WSJ. China scuttles the deal.

Tower Semiconductor: another Israeli semiconductor company, Foundry.

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New Mercedes

Link here.

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Got Nielsen?

TV now accounts for less than half of US viewing for the first time. Link here.

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Got Covid?

Brits: new Covid variant -- talking masks again.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- August 16, 2023

Locator: 45476B.

NVDA: $500, target. Multiple sources. Up about $3.50 pre-market.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.14. At least it's green this morning.

Thursday, August 17, 2023: 32 for the month; 234 for the quarter, 479 for the year
39554, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 3H,
38903, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-2H,
37880, conf, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH,
35470, conf, Oasis, MHA 1-29-30H-150-92,

Wednesday, August 16, 2023: 28 for the month; 230 for the quarter, 475 for the year
39553, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins LE 11-2 1H,
39452, conf, CLR, Edward 12-23HSL,

37879, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32MBH,

RBN Energy: where the market stands as heating season looms.

It may be hard to believe, given the furnace-like temperatures that many of us have been dealing with the past few weeks, but the 2023-24 propane heating season is on the horizon — its official start is October 1, only seven weeks away. To quote Bill and Ted from their Excellent Adventure movie franchise, it could be argued that, for the U.S. propane market, “The best place to be is here. The best time to be is now.” 

Production is at or near an all-time high — so are exports. Propane inventories are well above their five-year average, which should help ward off winter-supply concerns. And propane prices? They’re up from where they were a few weeks ago, but only in the 70-cents/gal range, well below the $1/gal-plus levels that were the norm between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022. The temptation may be to yell, “Party on, dudes!”, but as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the reality is, the propane market is an ongoing and unpredictable adventure, and you never know for sure what’s ahead.