Showing posts with label CostIntermittentEnergy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CostIntermittentEnergy. Show all posts

Thursday, July 23, 2026

India's Solar Push Is A Drain On The Economy -- July 23, 2026

Locator: 51231INDIA.

Tag: India Solar Energy  

Anecdote

We live in a suburb of Dallas-Ft Worth, Texas. Our granddaughter has a very nice friend. Her mom is Indian, having immigrated to the US when she was 18 years old. She came alone and had no one in the US to help her when she arrived. She got a college degree in Michigan and found a job in tech. She works from home ever since Covid. She may or may not receive child support and alimony from her husband. 
About two years ago, she moved from an apartment to a McMansion in the same area as the apartment she moved out of. The McMansion has a swimming pool. A year later she bought a new car (ICE and previously owned). Right now she is spending a couple of weeks with her daughter at her lakeside home in Michigan.  

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Indian Solar Energy 

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Spectrum Cable Update

Spectrum cable is "out" (down, not working) in our area and has been "out" several hours. 

The company has alerted us that they will update us every three hours! I'm working off my cellular data which is much slower than my computer. So, bear with me. 

ERCOT capacity is well above demand, so it's not that. Unless, it's a regional thing. 

Update: Spectrum has now gone nine hours with no solution. Spectrum is still down. Updates are given every three hours. The next update is scheduled for 4:00 a.m. CT. Was it a cooling problem that caused this or did some foreign country hack into Spectrum?

Update, 3:50 a.m. CT: Spectrum has now gone twelve hours with no solution. Spectrum is still down. Updates are given every three hours. The next update is scheduled for 6:00 a.m. CT.  Maybe things are getting better. The updates had been provided every three hours. The next update is only two hours from now. 

One wonders if Spectrum will reimburse us 1/30 of the lost connection? LOL.

Monday, April 28, 2025

AI Is An Energy Story -- Monday, April 28, 2025

Locator: 48531B.

WTI: $63.07.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, April 29, 2025: 94 for the month, 94 for the quarter, 301 for the year,
    • 40669, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 9HR,
    • 25074, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-3H,
  • Monday, April 28, 2025: 92 for the month, 92 for the quarter, 299 for the year,
    • 41068, conf, BR, Tilton 3E, 
  • Sunday, April 27, 2025: 91 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 298 for the year,
      • 40728, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-15H,
    • 40727, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 4H,
  • Saturday, April 26, 2025: 89 for the month, 89 for the quarter, 296 for the year,
    • 41148, conf, BR, Devils Backboe 5B,
    • 40726, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 2H,
    • 40725, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1-1H-LL,
    • 40707, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 3H,
    • 40491, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 2B, 

RBN Energy: counting on a boom in natural gas demand for power?

Rising demand for electricity to serve data centers, manufacturing and other power-consuming sectors of the economy is spurring the development of scores of gas-fired plants — up to 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2040. How much power those new plants will actually generate — and, with that, how much natural gas they will require — remain open questions, however. A recent study indicates that the vast majority of incremental power demand over the next 15 years could be supplied by solar and wind and that gas demand for power may remain pretty much flat. But the Trump administration’s dim view of most renewables — and clear preference for fossil fuels — suggest otherwise. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss gas demand for power in the late 2020s and 2030s.

Trump: first 100 days as of April 30, 2025. His term has just begun. He's farther along on his second term path than he was at similar point in his first term

RWE: for the US -- wind is dead. 

Solar: plan B. Needs natural gas back up.

Someone has the wrong data, and I certainly can't sort it out. Link here. I'm particularly concerned about the "USA" projection.

Friday, April 25, 2025

For The Archives -- I'm Lovin' It -- oilprice.com -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48520WIND.

This is for the archives. Everyone of my readers has seen this story. If not, they're not paying attention. LOL.

Lede

Germany's RWE just pulled the plug on its U.S. offshore wind business.
Quietly. No fireworks, no headlines about thousands of turbines scrapped—just a dry admission that it's "halting activities" in American waters.
For one of Europe’s biggest green energy giants to walk away from a market as large as the U.S., in the middle of an energy transition no less, is not just a business decision.

It’s a red flag.

The exit—confirmed by a speech manuscript published ahead of a yet-to-be-delivered speech by the company’s CEO—comes as RWE rethinks where and how it deploys capital. In March, the company slashed $11 billion off its low-carbon investment plan, citing rising costs, hostile regulatory environments, and a spike in its required return on investment from 8% to 8.5%. In other words: too risky, too expensive, too slow. [Sounds like the US oil sector, under Biden, Kerry, Pocahontas, and many others.]

RWE's CEO, Markus Krebber, had already warned last fall that Trump’s return to power could delay or derail projects on the U.S. East Coast. Now, the company is making that pivot official. All U.S. offshore wind operations are paused—indefinitely—and RWE will instead chase safer, more lucrative projects in places like Germany, where it just broke ground on a new 22.8-MW onshore wind farm.

Blaming the failure of an inefficient business plan on Trump. So, what else is new?

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Meanwhile

Link here.

Again, for the archives, my readers have already seen this story.

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Germans Take Another Step To Increase Energy Prices To Keep The Maldives From "Sinking" -- November 14, 2024

Locator: 48757GERMANY.

Link here.

The German cabinet has approved reforms that will restrict oil companies from carrying excess emissions reduction credits forward, a move that will boost the country’s biofuel industry which has been impacted by a rapid drop in carbon prices in recent years.

In recent years, oil companies operating in Germany have met emissions goals by selling extra biodiesel; with sales clocking in at 3.4 million metric tons in 2022, 34% above their target. However, the reforms mean that oil companies will no longer be able to use past greenhouse gas reduction quotas to meet targets in the coming two years, with this option only reopening again in 2027. 

Back in September, Germany's Environment Agency rejected carbon credits for 215,000 tons of CO2 emissions from oil companies due to suspected fraud involving climate projects in China.

Companies usually meet these targets by using plant-based biofuels or through "upstream emission reduction" (UER) projects. However, concerns arose over a year ago when doubts arose about whether some of these projects met the required standards or even existed.

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Anticipating The Market After Biden Drops Out -- July 21, 2024

Locator: 48205GREENENERGY.

Tag: fake EVS

We'll start here. Link here.

This was during the renewable-friendly Biden administration. Something tells me renewables may not be high on the Trump-Vance agenda. But, then again, that's just me.

And then this, from oilprice and Alex Kimani:

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Luxury Hybrids

So, now we go from luxury EVs to luxury hybrids.

Link here.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

ERCOT --Wind Will Be The Limiting Factor Later This Evening -- May 26, 2024

Locator: 47182ERCOT.

Link here

Generally speaking, as the sun goes down in Texas, the wind picks up, providing the extra "kick" needed to meet demand going into the evening. Tonight, it looks like wind could be a limiting factor. Texas electricity demand won't exceed supply but cost will be exorbitant as the spread narrows in the early evening.

Sunday, October 22, 2023

Energy Transition Is Over; We Just Don't Know It Yet -- October 22 ,2023

Locator: 45787RENEWABLES. 

The energy transition is over -- we just don't know it yet. Peter Zeihan.

Exhibit A.

Also:

How bad is it for EVs?

Here are the numbers for Polestar, Rivian, Lucid, Arrival, Canoo, 1-year and 5-year, as of October 20, 2023, share price:

  • Polestar: down 51%; down 67%; yesterday, down 8%;
  • Rivian: down 48%; down 87%; yesterday, down 3%;
  • Lucid: down  68%; down 57%; yesterday, down 1.4%;
  • Arrival: down 97%; down 99.8%; yesterday, down 5%;
  • Canoo: down 81%; down 97%; yesterday, down 6%;

Wind and solar, October 20, 2023 

Today: solar stocks plunge. Link here.

Wind is expensive. Link here.

The Dutch have just signed a 27-year LNG deal with Qatar, Shell. As in Royal Dutch Shell. My hunch: Dutch investors got tired of their investments in renewable energy.

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Appalachia Update -- Pipeline-Constrained -- Winter Coming -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45707B.

Skies: wow, what a gorgeous morning. Absolutely clear skies and just before dawn: bright crescent moon and Venus to the northeast, and Jupiter, a bit smaller but just as bright to the southwest.

Sales: Amazon, Walmart, Target and other large retailers launched US sales, dangling discounts on narrow selections of merchandise more than six weeks before Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year.

Renewables funds (investing): record outflow as rising rates, costs hit shares. Link here. The energy transition is over; we just don't know it yet. -- Peter Zeihan.

Smith and Wesson: new headquarters opened in Maryville, TN -- just half an hour from Knoxville, TX, and just minutes west from ... Springfield, TN. Previous home for S&W? Springfield, Massachusetts.

GM (investing): another workers' strike -- this time in Canada. Barron's. Fifteen percent is a long, long way from 40%.

Unifor workers at Ford ratified a new agreement in late September. The margin was relatively thin with 54% of workers voting yes. The deal included base wage increases of roughly 15% to 20% over the life of the three-year contract. It also included “significant increases to retirement programs including raised pension benefit rate and increased contributions,” according to Ford.

MNF: Green Bay loses to Las Vegas. 

Ledecky: nothing new here. I just don't want folks to forget about her as she prepares for the 2024 Olympics.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.02

Wednesday, October 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H,

Tuesday, October 10, 2023: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 593 for the year
39335, conf, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,

RBN Energy: Appalachia gas basis outlook in a pipeline-constrained world.

Appalachian natural gas producers and marketers are adapting to a new status quo — a world where new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Northeast is hard to come by and is more or less capped ad infinitum. Without the assurance of pipeline expansions, regional gas producers are no longer drilling with abandon in hopes that the capacity will eventually get built. Instead, producers are practicing restraint by slowing drilling activity, delaying completions and choking back producing wells to manage their inventory during periods of lower demand and prices. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what this new playbook will mean for pricing trends in the supply basin.

Monday, June 19, 2023

The Renewable Energy Scam -- June 19, 2023

Locator: 44977SCAM.  

Profile: EIA energy by state, North Dakota, link here.

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101 Days Of Summer -- Day 23

ERCOT: it's gonna be close. Not enough wind / sun late this afternoon. Link here.



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As long as solar and wind developers show Texas politicos that capacity exceeds demand, developers will be able to keep adding more solar / wind, and closing conventional (fossil fuel) sources.

In the graph above, the folks investing in renewable energy want the 1300 - 1900 energy price spike to incrementally expand to the left and to the right.

It's all about two things:

  • fund all infrastructure on back of conventional/historical pricing models;
  • "area under the curve"

We talked about this on the blog years ago. I first noted it while sitting in on a Harvard Business School talk on renewable energy -- about ten years ago. The scam was obvious then for those who understood graphs. LOL.

At the time, I questioned whether we would see publicly-provided graphics to demonstrate the scam.

Saturday, April 24, 2021

Facts Don't Matter -- April 24, 2021

At the bottom of the page / bottom of the blog, I have a gazillion tags. Despite the huge number, they help me save time. Because the number of tags has become so large, I'm trying to minimize new tags, hoping I can find an existing tag for new posts. But after a reader sent me this link, I think I may need to come up with a new tag: "Facts_Don't_Matter."

From PowerLine: why wind and solar energy are doomed to failure.

No, I'm not going to add a new tag. We'll use the ones we have. 

For the archives. 

The only question that remains, when will the "house of cards" fall? 

By the way, the central them of the linked article, "land constraints," was pointed out by Exxon about ten years ago. I posted the link at the sidebar at the right, but it appears that article has long disappeared. Exxon was correct then and remains correct today. 

Archived.

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Words Matter

Whorfianism.

Wiki entry.

Another famous anecdote from his job [as a fire inspector for an insurance company] was used by Whorf to argue that language use affects habitual behavior.

Whorf described a workplace in which full gasoline drums were stored in one room and empty ones in another; he said that because of flammable vapor the "empty" drums were more dangerous than those that were full, although workers handled them less carefully to the point that they smoked in the room with "empty" drums, but not in the room with full ones.

Whorf argued that by habitually speaking of the vapor-filled drums as empty and by extension as inert, the workers were oblivious to the risk posed by smoking near the "empty drums."

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Global Warming Update For North Dakota -- May 18, 2019

Link here.

Despite the warmists telling us this is the warmest winter on record, it's still winter in North Dakota (and many other parts of the US).

Even here in north Texas, winter seems to linger. From earlier this month ...


... and we're getting a lot of rain today and it will be raining every day next week, until Friday (here in north Texas).

Meanwhile, back in North Dakota, today:


I'm sure there were many years when I was growing up in Williston when we had snow in May, but I don't remember any.

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On Another Note -- 

Link here. Provided by a reader.


But it makes us feel good.

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The Book Page

President Trump needs to read Nathaniel Philbrick's story of George Washington from the start of the Revolutionary War through the winter at Valley Forge, winter of 1777 - 1778.

The least of George Washington's problems were the British. His biggest problems were the Continental Congress and his fellow generals. Fascinating story. George Washington was surrounded by "never-George [Washington] men" in the Continental Congress and among his own fellow generals. It's quite a story. Everyone knows the "military history" of George Washington; my hunch: few know the political story.

From Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution, Nathaniel Philbrick, c. 2016.

Friday, January 11, 2019

Finally Some Adult Leadership Regarding Renewable Energy -- Some Sanity -- From .... China -- January 11, 2019

From Forbes:
China has said it will not approve wind and solar power projects unless they can compete with coal power prices.
Beijing pulled the plug on support for large solar projects, which had been receiving a per kWh payment, in late May. That news came immediately after the country’s largest solar industry event and caught everyone by surprise.
Officials are understood to have been frustrated at seeing Chinese suppliers and engineering firms building solar projects overseas that delivered electricity at prices far below what was available back home.
The country also has its own issues with grid logjams. These have caused power from wind and solar projects to be wasted due to a lack of capacity on the network to transmit and distribute it. In 2017 12% of wind generation and 6% of solar was curtailed.
So, finally, a big country wants to see renewable energy go mano a mano against coal. 

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves Data For November, 2019, Has Been Posted; Saudi Wind Farm Announced

Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves for November, 2018:
Link here.

The one-year graphic looks good -- only because it's one year:

The 5-year graphic:

The 10-year graphic confirms Hubbert's other theory: the Hubbert Peak Cash Theory:

Saudi wind: well, this certainly came out of nowhere. See this post on Saudi Arabia's strategy for renewable energy. It was a long post, and a very, very good post from my perspective. See if you can find the word "wind" in that long, long post. Yes, wind is there, but it's hard to find. The emphasis was on solar. So, technically speaking this did not come out of nowhere; it was in the plan (Vision 2030) all along.
Being announced today: Saudi Arabia closes on $500 million wind farm -- data points:
  • a consortium led by France’s EDF and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar has won the bidding
  • a 400-megawatt (MW)
  • $500-million wind farm in northern Saudi Arabia 
  • $1.25 million / MW
  • Saudis are targeting 3.45 GW worth of generation from renewable energy by 2020, which would represent around 4 percent of generation capacity
  • by 2023, the Saudi target is 9.5 GW, which would account for 10 percent of generation capacity
  • cost comparison
From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":
  • Solar: $3 million / MW
  • Wind: $2.5 million / MW
  • Natural gas: $865,000 / MW
Great Britain: do they spell "recession" the same way as Americans?
Great Britain's GDP comes in a 0.3%; previous was 0.4%. At least that's what I thought I saw. Not sure what month, and not sure if final reading. But sounds about right. Lucky to be positive, I suppose.

Monday, January 7, 2019

Jet Fuel Prices Spike; ISO New England Grid Price Spikes -- January 7, 2019;

Tonight's NCAA championship game:
The vast majority of spreads seem to have settled at Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite.
The average over/under for the total score of the game currently stands at 57.5 points, per Vegas Insider.
57.5? LOL. Total points early in second period: 37.

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Back to Business

Read more here: https://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc/clemson-university/article223974345.html#storylink=cpy

From Chesto at the The Boston Globe:
Amazon claims title of most valuable US public company: The e-commerce giant hit $797 billion in market value, overtaking Microsoft.
Wow, how far has APPL has fallen?

We have three Echo Dots/Alexa -- Amazon is on a roll. Amazon, under-promising, over delivering. Apple, over-promising, under-delivering.

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Back To Energy

ISO New England, link hereABC Nightly News reports major storm system to hit New England. It will be interesting to see how ISO New England fares. Spot prices in ISO New England spike above $200/MW at 8:00 a.m. this morning.


Jet fuel getting expensive, also. Link here.

Jet fuel differentials on the US Atlantic Coast climbed to their highest levels in 16 months Monday as stock levels in the region continue to sag.

Global Platts assessed jet barrels on Buckeye Pipeline in New York Harbor at the NYMEX February ULSD futures contract plus 13 cents/gal. That was up 4 cents from Friday and highest since it reached plus 14.50 cents/gal on September 7, 2017.
USAC jet fuel inventories fell 656,000 barrels to 8.29 million barrels, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data. That was down just over a million barrels from the same period last year.
Think about this: in the latest EIA petroleum report --
  • there's a glut of oil
  • there's a glut of gasoline
  • refineries are operating almost at full capacity -- at over 97%
  • and, there a jet fuel supply issue.
What does that tell you about jet fuel demand over the holidays?
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.521/7/201901/07/201801/07/201701/07/201601/07/2015
Active Rigs64543954166

Six new permits: pending
  • Operators: XTO (5); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (McKenzie); Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well Mandal/Hovet Federal pad in 29-149-97; Lime Rock has a permit for Shuck well in 33-144-97 (see below)
Two producers abandoned:
  • 15076, Hess, BLMU N-17HR, Williams County; a Madison well;
  • 27395, Lime Rock Resources, Shuck 4-28-33H, Dunn County (see above)
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: the Wold wells in Banks oil field are tracked here:
  • 34471, 1,573, Whiting, Wold 41-5-3H, Banks, t11/18; 13K after 29 days;
  • 34470, 2,283, Whiting, Wold 41-5- 2TFHR, Banks, t11/18; cum 17K after 19 days;
  • 34469, 2,714, Whiting, Wold 41-5-2HR, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K after 19 days;
  • 33015, 3,581, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-8, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33014, 3,426, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --
  • 34204, 2,971, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --;
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Sophia: Getting Skis For The Very First Time
December 22, 2018

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

High Cost Of Non-Dispatchable, Unreliable Energy -- August 8, 2018

From the EIA;


And promoters still tell rate-paying utility customers that wind and solar projects will bring down their utility rates. LOL.

Screenshot of the day:


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The Modern Art Page


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Notes to the Granddaughters

Olivia is taking a robot-building course this week. There are about a dozen in the class, some older than she; some younger.

So far, on the first two days, her robots have out-raced all other rivals.

It is absolutely fascinating to listen to her stories. Before building the robot, she studies very carefully the parameters, looking for the "secret": the one thing that is most crucial. Yesterday, the robot they were to build had to negotiate an eight-turn maze. She noted that the 5th curve was the "secret." If she could figure out the "trick" this curve presented, she would win the race.

They build their robots. She was the last to finish -- she was interrupted by an obnoxious adolescent male who was sure he would win and was stealing her parts (the instructor was unaware; he was helping someone else); and, Olivia took time away from her own project to help a younger student. By the time she got back to her project, the races were beginning.

She completed her robot.

The robots raced the maze one-at-a-time, being timed with a stop-watch. She raced last. And, wow, was she ecstatic. Some robots were unable to complete the maze, but among the robots that finished, she completed the 8-turn maze, taking first place. Second best: in the time Olivia's robot completed the 8-turn maze, the second-place robot had only completed the first five turns.

The fifth turn was a nearly-180-degree -- sharp switch-back, I guess. Olivia rightly figured out how the robot was programmed to turn before the "student engineers" tweaked the code to modify that turning. That was the trick: the robot would naturally make the 180-degree turn if she "pretty-much" left the program alone -- minor tweaking was all that was needed.

Meanwhile, the oldest granddaughter is "off the grid." She is up in Minnesota attending a Spanish camp. At time of registration, everyone had to 'turn in" their cell phones. Once a day, they hand-write a note which the camp typist then e-mails to parents. The parents can reply to the e-mail, but the camp recorder prints off the reply and gives the paper-reply to the student.

Arianna was at this camp last year for a week and was eagerly looking forward to returning this summer for two weeks. It's likely she will return next summer for a full three weeks if she can squeeze it in.

Sophia? Enjoying her new bicycle.

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The Book Page

From Darwin's Fossils: The Collection That Shaped The Theory Of Evolution, Adrian Lister, c. 2018, page 184:
The Beagle had departed England 27 December 1831.
The Beagle docked at Falmouth in Cornwall on 2 October 1836 (two months short of a full-five-year voyage.

After visiting his family and rejoining the Beagle in London to unload the remainder of his belongings, Darwin took lodgings in Cambridge to consult with Henslow and, with the help of his Beagle servant Syms Covington, to unpack and sort his collections.

There were also important people to meet -- Sir Charles Lyell, whose Principles of Geology has been crucial to Darwin's work on the voyage, invited him a tea party on 29 October 1836, where he also met for the first time the anatomist Richard Owen of the Royal College of Surgeons, where Darwin's fossil bones had been sent.

Darwin subsequently visited Owen at the College on several occasions in December, 1836, and invited him to undertake research on the fossils.

Whereas William Clift, the curator, had received and prepared the specimens as they reached the College in 1833 and 1834, it was Owen who was now the rising star of comparative anatomy, having been elevated from his initial position as Clift's assistant to his recent appointment as Hunterian Professor.

While Owen's fame would undoubtedly have been assured by his later, seminal work on fossil reptiles, dinosaurs and much else besides, his study of Darwin's fossil mammals launched his career as a palaeontologist and did much to establish his reputation as the 'British Cuvier.'

Later, in February, 1838, Owen was delighted to receive the Geological Society's Wallaston Medal for his description of Toxodon, Darwin's most celebrated fossil find.
From page 81:
Toxodon platensis, the last of an endemic group of South American mammals. Initially described as a rhinoceros-sized rodent, it is now thought to be a distant relative of the rhinoceros itself.
Darwin's Toxodon fossil is among the treasured possessions of the Natural History Museum in London (p. 76).

Thursday, June 28, 2018

I Had No Idea -- High Voltage DC Transmission Lines In North Dakota -- June 28, 2018

First the graphic, look where the only US high voltage DC transmission lines are in the US:


The link: at the EIA --
A new study commissioned by EIA examines the role of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines in integrating renewables resources into the electric grid. The review indicates that, although applications in the current electric transmission network are limited, HVDC lines have a number of potential benefits including cost effectiveness, lower electricity losses, and the ability to handle overloads and prevent cascading failures. These attributes mean that HVDC lines could, if properly configured, help mitigate some operational issues associated with renewable generation.

Renewable resources can be categorized into two types of generating sources—dispatchable and non-dispatchable. Dispatchable generators can respond to real-time system operator instructions to increase or decrease output. Among renewable power plants, those fueled by geothermal and biomass resources are considered dispatchable.

Non-dispatchable renewables, such as those fueled by solar and wind energy, are dependent on the availability of naturally occurring resources. As a result, these technologies have a limited capability to respond to dispatch signals. Hydroelectric generators fall between these categories; they can typically respond to dispatch signals, but they often have seasonal operational limitations that prevent them from being completely dispatchable.
Go to the linked article to see why high voltage DC transmission lines are being considered for renewable energy.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Ideology Meets Reality -- And Reality Sucks For Some -- June 26, 2018

I think we are going to see more of this. Reality. From EnergyNews.

As long as there is not a nationwide standard, states that "market" themselves as "clean energy states" are going to find themselves drawing the "short end of the industrial/manufacturing" straw, as they say.

Wind / solar is much more expensive than coal or natural gas.

Wind / solar is not dependable. It certainly is not dispatchable.

States with mandated high renewable energy requirements will lose out to states with lower (or no) mandated renewable energy requirements.

States that want to "normalize" the cost of renewable energy to fossil fuel energy will require wealth redistribution -- the state will need other people's money to subsidize the cost of renewable energy.

That's reality.

Ohio apparently is getting a dose of reality.

These articles are hard to read quickly (much obfuscation) but if spelled out, this is what I take away from the article:
  • Ohio wants to back away from "required/mandated" standards to "targets"
  • Ohio wants to lower the standards/targets 
  • the top renewable energy standard/target would decrease from 12.5 percent to 8.5 percent
  • the top energy efficiency target would fall from 22.2 percent to 17.2 percent
And a target is just that. A target.

Oh, by the way, Ohio sits on one of the world's largest supplies of natural gas. Just saying.

Reality.

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

"Lower For Longer" -- Maybe Goldman Sachs Was Correct -- June 19, 2018; But For Australia, "Higher For Longer" -- Electricity Surged To $14,000/MWH Late Last Week

ExxonMobil Sees An Opportunity
Coals To Newcastle 

This is pretty coincidental. Three things:
  • weather forecasters forecasting one of the colder winters ever for Australia this year; winter has just begun (that was about a week ago; I did not post)
  • grid "crisis" in Australia; could not handle heating demand for cold snap; link here;
  • today, oilprice.com reports that ExxonMobil plans to build LNG import terminal off Australia's east coast
Other notes:
  • Australia sits on some of the world's largest coal reserves
  • Australia is saying "no" to coal to save the world from global warming; trying to "make do" with renewable energy; obviously not working
Australia's cold snap yesterday (from the linked article above):
  • energy prices surge 160x normal; up to $14,000 / MWH (US average: about $100/MWH)
  • several major electricity power stations went down, unprepared for spike in demand caused by cold snap along Australia's east coast
  • one of Australia's largest aluminium shelters forced to shut down
  • on three separate occasions, Tomago, the state's largest single energy user, was forced to halt production as spot prices soared to a staggering $14,000 per megawatt hour
  • Tesla's battery: the largest battery in the world would power the smelter plant for all of eight minutes
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.786/19/201806/19/201706/19/201606/19/201506/19/2014
Active Rigs61562877189

RBN Energy: Enterprises fractionators and other NGL-related assets at Mont Belvieu.
The fractionation and NGL storage complex in Mont Belvieu, TX, would surely qualify as one of the Seven Wonders of the Energy World, if there were such a list. With more than 250 million barrels of NGL storage carved — by water! — out of an enormous subterranean salt dome formation, and nearly two dozen fractionation plants with a combined capacity of more than 2 MMb/d, Mont Belvieu not only serves as the largest receipt point for mixed NGL streams on the planet, it is also the key hub of distribution for the ethane, propane, normal butane and other NGL purity products that are either consumed by Gulf Coast steam crackers and refineries or exported to foreign end-users. But unlike wonders of the ancient world like the Great Pyramids at Giza, Mont Belvieu is still very much a work in progress, with new storage caverns and new fractionators now under development to try to keep up with the breakneck pace of U.S. NGL production growth. Today, we begin a company-by-company review of fractionation capacity and other key infrastructure there.
Enterprise owns all or part of nine fractionation plants in Mont Belvieu (see photo below), the newest of which (Frac IX) is an 85-Mb/d facility that has been ramping to full operation this month (June 2018). The nine fractionators’ total capacity is 755 Mb/d, or 36% of the total existing fractionation capacity at the NGL hub. Enterprise — its holdings in Mont Belvieu  — has been a major fractionator there for many years. By 2010, it had 245 Mb/d of capacity up and running in Mont Belvieu, and this decade it’s added six 85-Mb/d plants: one each in 2010, 2011 and 2012; two in 2013 and — as we said above — another this month. The seventh and eighth fractionation units at Enterprise’s Mont Belvieu complex (the ones that came online in 2013) were joint projects with Western Gas Partners (WGP), a master limited partnership formed by Anadarko; Enterprise owns 75% of the two units and WGP owns 25%. Enterprise owns about 130 MMbbl of existing salt dome storage capacity at Mont Belvieu and is in the process of developing 38 MMbbl of additional storage capacity there. The company’s Mont Belvieu assets also including a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant, isobutene dehydrogenation (iBDH) capacity, propylene splitters, and an octane-enhancement unit that produces methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) for the export market.

Thursday, June 14, 2018

EU On The Ropes -- June 14, 2018

First, this reminder:


Then there is Brexit, and then talk of an Italian exit. Turkey isn't helping things in Europe, and, of course, President Trump's focus is shifting to China, Korea, Japan.

And, then, of course, the whole immigration issue.

Now, on top of all this, EU's growth engine says "no" to EU's renewable energy proposals.

A huge "thank you" to a reader who spotted this. This story is not going to be reported by the mainstream media any time soon. You can find it at the Euractive website:  I have no idea how a reader would ever stumble upon this gem. The headline: Germany pours cold water on EU's clear energy ambitions.
Voters across Europe have lost faith in politics partly because of “unachievable targets” on renewable energy, said German Energy Minister Peter Altmaier, who rejected calls from a group of other EU countries to boost the share of renewables to 33-35% of the bloc’s energy mix by 2030. Altmaier made the comments during an on-the-record exchange between the 28 EU energy ministers, who are gathered in Luxembourg today (11 June) for a meeting of the Energy Council.

Energy ministers are expected to thrash out a joint position on three clean energy laws which are currently being negotiated in the EU institutions – the Renewable Energy Directive, the Energy Efficiency Directive and a regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union.

“Germany supports responsible but achievable targets,” Altmaier said from the outset, underlining Berlin’s efforts to raise the share of renewables to 15% of the country’s overall energy mix.

But he said those efforts also carried a cost for the German taxpayer, which he put at €25 billion per year. “And if we are setting targets that are definitely above 30%, that means that within a decade, our share has to be more than doubled – clearly more than doubled,” Altmaier pointed out.

“We’re not going to manage that,” Altmaier said referring to an objective of putting 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2020 in Germany. “Nowhere in Europe is going to manage that,” he claimed. “And even if we did manage to get enough electric cars, we wouldn’t have enough renewable electricity to keep them on the road,” he stressed.
So many story lines. I particularly liked that last line: even if we did manage to get enough electric cars, we wouldn’t have enough renewable electricity to keep them on the road.

By the way, the Germany announcement coincides with that of China's recent announcement to shut down solar growth

Thursday, February 8, 2018

The Road To Australia -- Free Wind Energy Where Electricity Costs $13,000 / MWH -- February 8, 2018

Updates

Later, 6:27 p.m. Central Time: shortly after reporting that electricity now costs $13,000 / MWh in South Australia, this note from a reader:
At 09:30, local time, the 5 eastern Australian states are consuming 25,000 megawatts of electricity. 
Wind and grid solar are producing 600 megawatts. 
Temperatures in Adelaide expected to exceed 100F, putting strain on grid supply.

The "NEM Dispatch Overview" tab on the Aussie AEMO site shows individual state production, consumption, and how much solar/wind is contributing ... along with the flow pattern amongst the states. 
Kinda fascinating seeing how 'close to the edge' the grid is, despite exceptionally high cost to provide their citizens, their industries, such a basic commodity like electricity. 
Original Post
 
Upset about your monthly utility bill? It could be worse. You could be living in South Australia -- the poster child for successful wind energy. Free wind energy is only costing them $13,000 / MWh (vs the "standard" / contract, $35 / MWH: