Off The Net -- September 23, 2022

 Best television ad right now: the Apple Watch, series 8, ultra. Period. Dot.

From Geoff Simon -- September 23, 2022

More extended long laterals:

More money:

************************
Impressing That Little Girl 

A Closer Look At The Permits In Today's Daily Activity Report -- September 23, 2022

New permits and something new in the daily activity report: this is no big deal, just something I had not seen before but it's likely I simply missed such examples earlier.

First, from the blog, posted earlier:

Five new permits, #39260 - #39264, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (3); Hunt Oil (2)
• Fields: Todd (Williams County); Werner (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for three Field wells in Todd oil field, NWNE 18-154-101, 
• to be sited betwween 329 FNL and 389 FNL and at 1669 FEL;
• Hunt Oil has permits for two Cook wells in Werner oil field, NWNE 25-146-93, 
• to be sited 634 FNL and at 1730 FEL and at 1700 FEl, respectively:

Now, a screenshot from the daily activity report with the Grayson Mill permits:

Again, this really means nothing (as far as I'm concerned) but it's information usually not seen on the daily activity report. 

Five New Permits; WTI In Free Fall? September 23, 2022

Active rigs: 47.

WTI: $78.74. Are we in free fall to $60? Saudi Arabia wants to know.

Natural gas: $6.828. Oh-oh.

Five new permits, #39260 - #39264, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (3); Hunt Oil (2)
• Fields: Todd (Williams County); Werner (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for three Field wells in Todd oil field, NWNE 18-154-101, 
• to be sited betwween 329 FNL and 389 FNL and at 1669 FEL;
• Hunt Oil has permits for two Cook wells in Werner oil field, NWNE 25-146-93, 
• to be sited 634 FNL and at 1730 FEL and at 1700 FEl, respectively:

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36985, 1,670, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 3-23H1,
• 37075, 40, BR, Cleofill 1C,
• 36244, 54, BR, Maverick 2C TFH,

My Favorite Chart -- Data Through August 31, 2022

My favorite chart. Link here. Data through August 31, 2022.

Apple: Tracked here. Another chip, the H2. A powerful new chip in the new Apple AirPods Pro. Better sound quality (I doubt many will even notice) and 2x better noise cancellation (I'll have to read the reviews). Many more "improvements." $249.

Enbridge: link here.

Enbridge -- September 23, 2022

That which does not kill you, will make you stronger. Link here.

U.S. exports of natural gas to Mexico eased somewhat after a record June 2021, which saw shipments above 7 Bcf/d occur multiple times, the high mark set on June 17 of 7.4 Bcf. Since February 2022, however, exports have crept up each month and totaled about 176 Bcf in April for an average of about 5.9 Bcf/d.

Two cross-border pipelines have driven growth in U.S. gas exports to Mexico.

Energy Transfer Partners’ Trans-Pecos Pipeline originates at the Waha Hub in the Delaware Basin and delivers natural gas to the U.S. border at Presidio, Texas, into the Wahalajara pipeline system. 

On the Gulf Coast, Enbridge Inc.’s Valley Crossing Pipeline on the Texas side of the border delivers gas to the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline in Mexico, which is operated by a unit of TC Energy Corp.

Ticker: re-setting --

• 52-week high: $48
• today, trading at $38
• P/E: 21
• yield: 7%

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

1 --> 2 --> 3 -- September 23, 2022

Antarctica unaffected by climate change, global warming: link here.

Wind: well said. Link here.

That which does not kill you, will make you stronger. Link here.

U.S. exports of natural gas to Mexico eased somewhat after a record June 2021, which saw shipments above 7 Bcf/d occur multiple times, the high mark set on June 17 of 7.4 Bcf. Since February 2022, however, exports have crept up each month and totaled about 176 Bcf in April for an average of about 5.9 Bcf/d.

Two cross-border pipelines have driven growth in U.S. gas exports to Mexico.

Energy Transfer Partners’ Trans-Pecos Pipeline originates at the Waha Hub in the Delaware Basin and delivers natural gas to the U.S. border at Presidio, Texas, into the Wahalajara pipeline system. 

On the Gulf Coast, Enbridge Inc.’s Valley Crossing Pipeline on the Texas side of the border delivers gas to the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline in Mexico, which is operated by a unit of TC Energy Corp.

For The Archives -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Medicare -- September 23, 2022

My only medical encounter so far this year.

This was my first booster, following the two initial vaccinations.

Now I need to get my second booster. 

Many comments / observations / questions -- but we can leave those for another day.

Updating A Most Amazing Slawson Well -- Perhaps The Most Amazing Well In The Bakken -- September 23, 2022

Is this the best pad in the Bakken?

Reminder:

• this well produced 136,000 bbls crude oil in one month; back in April, 2019
  
• some Bakken wells don't produce that much crude oil in ten years

See this post.

Have I ever updated this well? Recently?

The Slawson Torpedo Federal wells are tracked here. Is this the best pad in the Bakken?

• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 407K 10/19; cum 862K 7/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	7270	7320	8076	11245	11145	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	7852	7962	3811	10325	10231	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	9514	9465	9880	11635	11491	38
BAKKEN	4-2022	25	8008	8017	2714	9173	9079	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	10251	10230	531	12909	12799	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	10467	10434	683	10059	9602	349
BAKKEN	1-2022	28	14374	14454	11764	13712	13089	500
BAKKEN	12-2021	21	10641	10639	8987	10436	10348	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	27	13994	13991	12212	12724	12621	0

Initial production:

BAKKEN	8-2019	29	53320	52834	39184	27544	22884	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	33921	34045	1098	23126	19317	141
BAKKEN	6-2019	22	29585	30475	29452	16579	12787	471
BAKKEN	5-2019	30	36801	37642	26249	22557	17513	935
BAKKEN	4-2019	29	136924	135272	93535	98300	79805	3959
BAKKEN	3-2019	4	15385	15626	7510	6506	0	4747
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	8	23402	21672	26046	9666	0	7115

A parent well in the area just went over 600,000 bbls crude oil cumulative and according to the scout ticket is is flowing without a pump. It was recently taken off line:

Graphics:

How Did We All Miss This -- North Dakota Set A New Fossil Energy Record In July, 2022

From the Director's Cut.

It really doesn't matter how much you produce, if you don't capture it and use it or sell it. Isn't that true? 

Gas production:

• July, 2022: 3,102,327 MCF/day (preliminary)
  
• June, 2022: 3,061,082 (preliminary) --> 3,062,778 MCF/day
  
• delta, MCF / day: 41,245 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 1.35%
• gas captured: 94%
• captured: 2,911,420 MCF/day
• 3,145,172 MCF/day all-time high production, November, 2019
• 2,911,420 MCF/day NEW all-time high capture, July, 2022 
  

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

So, that's a record on "CAPTURE."

But look at overall production.

• All-time high, just before the global lock down, November, 2019: 3,145,172 MCF/day.
• Most recent month, July, 22: 3,062,778 MCF/day
  
• July, 2022, natural gas production is 97.4% of it's all-time high.

For perspective:

• Eagle Ford: about 7,000,000 MCF/day (double the Bakken)
• Permian: about 20,000,000 MCF/day (7x the Bakken)

Per rig, natural gas:

• Permian: 2,100,000 cubic feet/day
• Eagle Ford: 6,400,000
• Bakken: 2,500,000 

So, Bakken natural gas / rig is about the same as the Permian, but the Eagle Ford has the bragging rights of the three plays.

So, let's see oil production / rig / play:

• Permian: 1,000 bopd
• Eagle Ford: 1,700 bopd
• Bakken: 1,700 bopd

Director's Cut, Part 2, July, 2022 Data

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

July, 2022, data posted. 

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here. 

North Dakota oil production: still exceeds one million bopd.  A "Goldilocks" oil patch.

Oil:

• July, 2022: 1,069,517 bopd (preliminary)
  
• June, 2022: 1,096,151 (preliminary)  --> 1,096,783 bopd (final)
  
• delta, bopd: -26,634 bopd
  
• delta, percent: down 2.4 percent (NDIC said down 2.5 percent)
  
• revenue forecast: 1.0 million bbls
  

Crude oil price:

• today: $85.50
• July, 2022: $98.12
  
• June, 2022: $111.35
  
• May, 2022: $105.77
  
• April, 2022: $100.16

Gas production:

• July, 2022: 3,102,327 MCF/day (preliminary)
  
• June, 2022: 3,061,082 (preliminary) --> 3,062,778 MCF/day
  
• delta, MCF / day: 41,245 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 1.35%
• gas captured: 94%
• captured: 2,911,420 MCF/day
• 3,145,172 MCF/day all-time high production, November, 2019
• 2,911,420 MCF/day NEW all-time high capture, July, 2022
  

Pet Peeve -- When Writers Don't Put Things Into Perspective -- Thanks To A Reader For Catching This -- September 23, 2022

A reader, thank you, pointed this out.

Link here.

From ZeroHedge:

The Ghasha concession is the world’s largest offshore sour gas development, comprising not just the Ghasha field itself but also the Hail, Hair Dalma, Satah, Bu Haseer, Nasr, SARB, Shuwaihat, and Mubarraz fields as well. 

First production from it had been expected to begin in 2025, with the target being the production of at least 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of gas by 2030. 

Eni is the holder of the largest foreign share of the ADNOC-led project, with a 25 percent stake, followed by Germany’s Wintershall Dea (10 percent), Austria’s OMV (5 percent), and Russia’s Lukoil (5 percent).

From recent "Director's Cut," the Bakken, North Dakota. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't 3,061,082 MCF/day = 3.061 Bcf/d or double the production from the UAE field noted above -- the world's largset offshore sour gas development project? And that initiative doesn't hit "at least 1.5 billion cubic feet per day until eight years from now.

And, oh, by the way, the Bakken as a natural gas play must be one of the smallest natural gas plays in the US. 

ZeroHedge would have a whole lot more credibility if its writer(s) would put things in perspective. 

It's too bad we don't have a president who would like to make America great again. Can you imagine a Biden-photo-op in Williston, at the corner of Broadway and Main. By the way, plenty of opportunities to get great ice cream in Williston.

Natural Gas -- September 23, 2022

Uh-oh: link here. But CNBC is only now beginning to figure this out? For many folks, they will be lucky if it's "only" 60 percent more.

************************************
ISO NE

Link here.

Holy mackerel. The wind is cooperating this morning. 

And, yet, rates are still fairly high considering "wind is free."

 

ISO NE -- September 23, 2022

Link here.

Holy mackerel. The wind is cooperating this morning. 

And, yet, rates are still fairly high considering "wind is free."

 

TGIF -- Hard To Believe It's Already Friday -- September 23, 2022

Texas sports: last night I watched a local club baseball team practice. Incredible:

• this was "club" baseball
• players were eleven years old; they all turn eleven this year 
• referred to as the "11's" -- must have birth date in 2011
• some years ago, "club" sports in Texas switched to year of birth, rather than grade in school to determine team level (if that makes sense)
  
• young men begin "club" baseball about the age of eight (?)
• team will stick together through seventeen (?) years of age
• coaches will stay with the team until the team disbands seven years from now, and then the coaches will start with a new team
• coaches might be involved with more than one team, but different age groups
• this team had four coaches; three male, one female
• two of the coaches played professional baseball
• one coach has a son currently playing professional baseball on the west coast
• the female coach is on the coaching staff for the Houston Astros, who by the way, will win the American League West this year
• there are eleven young men on the team
• each player much pitch
• two players are catchers
• everyone of these players aspire to be professional baseball players, no doubt
  

Texas sports:

• "club" baseball as described above is the same format as "club" soccer
• our high school junior plays both high school soccer and "club" soccer

Boston Celtics:

• Ime Udoka
• I'm obviously wrong on this issue, but private, personal relationships bother me not
• we go through life but once; many twists and turns;
• who are we to judge?
• lots of hypocrisy out there
• Robert Sarver "contamination" 
• it might be interesting to get Phil Jackson's take on this, or that of Jeanie Buss?
  

Brett Favre:

• saved by Ime Udoka, Robert Sarver
  

Lynch mobs, 2020s:

• Social media

Golf:

• haven't seen Phil, Bryson on television in months, perhaps almost two years (?);
• PGA has gotten a whole lot better

NFL TNF:

• agree completely;
  

Pet peeves:

• ad campaigns in which advertiser has only one ad which is played over and over
• not enough money to make three or four different ads?
• there's a reason Progressive, Nationwide, Geico are so well-liked (?);
• obnoxious commercials, and there are lots of them;
• there's a reason Progressive, Nationwide, Geico are so well-liked (?);
• Domino's Pizza current ad is particularly obnoxious
• we've already mentioned Lizzo and Instacart; 

Music:

• "best" lists are a dime a dozen
• we all enjoy them
• this list loses all credibility when Fleetwood Mac (coming in at #2) beats out two Beatles albums on the list
• just as bad: only two Beatles albums on the list of 100
• I've always felt -- and so have many others -- Ringo was the key to the Beatles' success
• I always felt that but Sina nailed it, cemented  it.
• I was reminded again, how great Ringo was, by listening to Abbey Road yesterday
• I like to think that I'm not much of a Beatles fan ... until I listen again to their four best albums -- my list of 100 best albums of all time? The Beatles would occupy positions #1 - #4, and perhaps #5.
• if CCR "best" is not on a list of 100 best albums, the list is bogus

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

One of the best things about the Bakken: surprises. 

ND Legacy Fund: September deposits posted.

WTI: not gonna look

Natural gas: not gonna look

Active rigs: 47.

Monday, September 26, 2022: 42 for the month, 92 for the quarter, 431 for the year
None.

Sunday, September 25, 2022: 42 for the month, 92 for the quarter, 431 for the year
38184, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 6H,
38720, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-5H,
37943, conf, Bowline, Missouri W 152-103-4-9-8H,
37942, conf, Bowline, Missouri W 152-103-4-9-7H,

Saturday, September 24, 2022: 38 for the month, 88 for the quarter, 427 for the year
38721, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-12H,
38183, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 5TFH,

Friday, September 23, 2022: 36 for the month, 86 for the quarter, 425 for the year
38182, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 4H, 

RBN Energy: Enbridge makes a major investment in Canada's Woodfibre LNG. Archived.

There finally seems to be some momentum building for additional LNG export projects on Canada’s West Coast. Major pipeline and midstream operator Enbridge announced in late July that it was making an investment in Woodfibre LNG, a smaller-scale export project that has already come a long way in terms of approvals, pipeline connections, locking up gas supplies, and initial financing. With the Enbridge announcement — and the financial and technical clout the company brings to the table — it is now very likely that the project will make a final investment decision (FID) before the end of the year and be exporting LNG by 2027. In today’s blog, we take a detailed look at Woodfibre LNG.

Global LNG markets continue to be roiled by the European energy crisis. The continent looks to be in for what could be a very tough heating season (see Beyond the Sea) as Russia has cut its pipeline gas supplies to a mere trickle and might reduce them to zero in the near future. Gas-use restrictions and other measures are being bandied about daily in Europe as a way to ensure there is enough gas to get through the coming heating season, which is now only weeks away.