Thursday, November 2, 2023

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- Following 3Q23 Earnings -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45923DIV.

Between share appreciation and dividend increases across the energy board -- not just COP, EOG and PXD -- this may be one of the most exciting -- and profitable -- weeks I've had in quite some time. 

It's easy to forget that at one time $60-oil looked pretty good and oil companies were making money at that price. Now, much of 3Q23, we saw WTI in the mid- to high-$80s.



Expedia -- Record Travel Bookings -- Gen Z -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45923INV. 

From earnings today:
  • Expedia: beat on top and bottom; $5 billion buyback; record level travel bookings for any 3rd quarter;

That was today.

I kept this story in the archives for other reasons, but the story below fits the Expedia story.

This was from April 16, 2023

From The Oil Patch -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45922INV. 

From a couple of days ago, OKE, link here

Today:


And, then another one from the Bakken, Chord Energy:

Apple -- An Update -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45921AAPL. 

From the archives:
  • Three Bell Capital, Jon Porter, February 4, 2019:
    • As Apple plunged 30% late last year against a slew of bad headlines about China and iPhone demand, some of Jon Porter’s clients had concerns. 
    • Porter is the CEO of Three Bell Capital, a Los Altos, California firm that manages more than $1 billion for clients, mostly people in San Francisco, and that means people who work in technology.


Previously Posted

June 8, 2023: Yesterday: my first blog on Apple Silicon, arguably the biggest chip company in the world.

Today, more, from The Verge, dated June 7, 2023. Jon Porter "heard" the same thing I heard during Tim Cook's WWDC keynote speech.

Although it seems like a surefire thing in retrospect, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on how successful Apple’s switch to Apple Silicon has been. Prior to Apple’s big announcement, Arm-based processors had only really been successful in smartphones. A couple of manufacturers had attempted to make Windows laptops work on Arm (perhaps most notably with the Surface Pro X), but none had delivered on the promises of the architecture without significant compromises.

Apple has not just successfully transitioned its entry-level MacBooks to Arm, where the architecture’s battery life benefits were the biggest appeal, but it also upended our concept of Arm performance for both laptops and desktops. Apple not only ported its own operating system and apps but also convinced major third-party developers to do the same.

The iPhone manufacturer is notorious for its love of control. It controls how people can use its smartphones and which apps they can install. It controls how the repair ecosystem around them works. And with its transition to Apple Silicon, it has an unprecedented amount of control over how it makes its Macs. It doesn’t need to wait for Intel and AMD to release new chips to upgrade its computers or rebuild a relationship with Nvidia. Now, as it starts its next journey, Apple can march to the beat of its own drum.
 
Apple suppliers:

 

*********************
Earnings: 4Q23
Quarter Ending September 30, 2023

This page is done on the fly. Expect typographical and content errors.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory.

 All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Results for Apple: beat on top and bottom.
  • closed at $177.57; up $3.60; up 2%.
  • revenues, forecast, $89.28; actual $89.50; 
    • four straight quarters of revenue decline; accounts for fall in share price;
  • EPS, forecast, $1.39 - $1.45; actual: $1.46.
  • margins: 45.2% vs 44,5%
  • iPhones: exactly in line
    • strong demand; can't keep pace with demand
    • North American: demand up y/y
    • Asia; flat to slightly lower
  • Mac business: down 30% (?) 
    • but Tim Cook looks for a much better 1Q24 (December / holiday quarter) with the new M3 Macs; another reason for stock being down after hours;
  • services: a big beat; another record; 
    • a proxy for loyalty; consumers willing to buy "more" from Apple after original purchase
    • for one analyst: this is what Apple is now all about
      • Macs? A rounding error for Apple
      • has announced a price increase in TV+ for example
  • after-hours, ticker:
    • before earnings report: up 17 cents at 4:01 p.m.; 4:26 p.m. up 43 cents;
    • immediately after hours, a drop of $1.32 / share; then quickly, $2.96 / share drop; looks like shares will settle down $2.32 after the close. Wow, wow, wow -- looks like AAPL will finally settle down $1.23 / share.
    • $175 still looks like the new AAPL floor; P/E: 30 based on this quarter's earnings (x4) but isn't quite accurate because first quarters should have greater earnings
    • for me: continues to be a "hold and accumulate at the dips"; 
      • is the new floor, $175?
      • of all new money going into investing, perhaps 5% to AAPL on a monthly basis;
      • while waiting for new AAPL floor, think Apple suppliers: SWKS, Broadcom (AVGO)
        • AVGO soared today: up $18 or 2%.

China

  • based on results today, starting with Starbucks, China consumer is in a much better situation than naysayers suggesting.
  • this is why I quit following macro-economics: the Starbucks consumer doesn't check the country's GDP before deciding whether to have a Starbucks coffee.

Others (as you go through these, does this sound like the recession which Charlie Munger says we're in?), announcing before AAPL; transcribed quickly, expect typographically and content errors; for my use only:

  • Paramount: beat on top and bottom; stock spiking about 8%; soared 12% today by the time it was all over;
  • Expedia: beat on top and bottom; $5 billion buyback; record level travel bookings for any 3rd quarter;
  • Skyworks: beats; $2.20 vs $2.10 EPS forecast; revenue in line; key component supplier for Apple; guidance fell short;
  • Dropbox: beat on top and bottom lines
  • Live Nation: beats; $1.78 vs. $1.27; record after record; second straight massive beat; think
  • Block: beats 55 cents vs 47 cents; ticker up 15% after market close;
  • Carvana: ticker moving higher; earned over $3; a loss was forecast; this was such a shock, CNBC unable to do the math (seriously)

Job cuts

  • lots of talk earlier this week about Schwab's job cuts of 5%;
  • in fact, lots of companies cutting, including MSFT announcement today; 

Analysts:

  • almost all talking heads while these results were being reported said they expected a recession in 2024.
  • have they been talking about "the" recession for the past three years?
  • yes, of course, there will be a recession; that's not a hard prediction to make.

Daily Activity Report: One New Permit (Oasis); Lime Rock Reports Five Completed DUCs -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45920B.  

 Short covering and FOMO

BRK-B;

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: up 2.6%; up $2.09; trading at $82.53.

Active rigs: 37.

One new permit, #40314:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Truax (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has a permit for a Truax state federal well, SWSE 9-153-98, 
      • to be sited 1185 FSL aand 1763 FEL;

Five producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 39019, 1,326, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 12H,
  • 39017, 1,351, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
  • 39016, 1,205, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 8H,
  • 39018, 1,038, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H,
  • 39056, 740, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 14H,

Apple Beats On Top And Bottom Lines -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45919AAPL. 

This page is done on the fly. Expect typographical and content errors.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory.

 All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Results for Apple: beat on top and bottom.
  • closed at $177.57; up $3.60; up 2%.
  • revenues, forecast, $89.28; actual $89.50; 
    • four straight quarters of revenue decline; accounts for fall in share price;
  • EPS, forecast, $1.39 - $1.45; actual: $1.46.
  • margins: 45.2% vs 44,5%
  • iPhones: exactly in line
    • strong demand; can't keep pace with demand
    • North American: demand up y/y
    • Asia; flat to slightly lower
  • Mac business: down 30% (?) 
    • but Tim Cook looks for a much better 1Q24 (December / holiday quarter) with the new M3 Macs; another reason for stock being down after hours;
  • services: a big beat; another record; 
    • a proxy for loyalty; consumers willing to buy "more" from Apple after original purchase
    • for one analyst: this is what Apple is now all about
      • Macs? A rounding error for Apple
      • has announced a price increase in TV+ for example
  • after-hours, ticker:
    • before earnings report: up 17 cents at 4:01 p.m.; 4:26 p.m. up 43 cents;
    • immediately after hours, a drop of $1.32 / share; then quickly, $2.96 / share drop; looks like shares will settle down $2.32 after the close. Wow, wow, wow -- looks like AAPL will finally settle down $1.23 / share.
    • $175 still looks like the new AAPL floor; P/E: 30 based on this quarter's earnings (x4) but isn't quite accurate because first quarters should have greater earnings
    • for me: continues to be a "hold and accumulate at the dips"; 
      • is the new floor, $175?
      • of all new money going into investing, perhaps 5% to AAPL on a monthly basis;
      • while waiting for new AAPL floor, think Apple suppliers: SWKS, Broadcom (AVGO)
        • AVGO soared today: up $18 or 2%.

China

  • based on results today, starting with Starbucks, China consumer is in a much better situation than naysayers suggesting.
  • this is why I quit following macro-economics: the Starbucks consumer doesn't check the country's GDP before deciding whether to have a Starbucks coffee.

Others (as you go through these, does this sound like the recession which Charlie Munger says we're in?), announcing before AAPL; transcribed quickly, expect typographically and content errors; for my use only:

  • Paramount: beat on top and bottom; stock spiking about 8%; soared 12% today by the time it was all over;
  • Expedia: beat on top and bottom; $5 billion buyback; record level travel bookings for any 3rd quarter;
  • Skyworks: beats; $2.20 vs $2.10 EPS forecast; revenue in line; key component supplier for Apple; guidance fell short;
  • Dropbox: beat on top and bottom lines
  • Live Nation: beats; $1.78 vs. $1.27; record after record; second straight massive beat; think
  • Block: beats 55 cents vs 47 cents; ticker up 15% after market close;
  • Carvana: ticker moving higher; earned over $3; a loss was forecast; this was such a shock, CNBC unable to do the math (seriously)

Job cuts

  • lots of talk earlier this week about Schwab's job cuts of 5%;
  • in fact, lots of companies cutting, including MSFT announcement today; 

Analysts:

  • almost all talking heads while these results were being reported said they expected a recession in 2024.
  • have they been talking about "the" recession for the past three years?
  • yes, of course, there will be a recession; that's not a hard prediction to make.

Apple suppliers:

Updates

June 8, 2023: Yesterday: my first blog on Apple Silicon, arguably the biggest chip company in the world.

Today, more, from The Verge, dated June 7, 2023. Jon Porter "heard" the same thing I heard during Tim Cook's WWDC keynote speech.

Although it seems like a surefire thing in retrospect, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on how successful Apple’s switch to Apple Silicon has been. Prior to Apple’s big announcement, Arm-based processors had only really been successful in smartphones. A couple of manufacturers had attempted to make Windows laptops work on Arm (perhaps most notably with the Surface Pro X), but none had delivered on the promises of the architecture without significant compromises.

Apple has not just successfully transitioned its entry-level MacBooks to Arm, where the architecture’s battery life benefits were the biggest appeal, but it also upended our concept of Arm performance for both laptops and desktops. Apple not only ported its own operating system and apps but also convinced major third-party developers to do the same.

The iPhone manufacturer is notorious for its love of control. It controls how people can use its smartphones and which apps they can install. It controls how the repair ecosystem around them works. And with its transition to Apple Silicon, it has an unprecedented amount of control over how it makes its Macs. It doesn’t need to wait for Intel and AMD to release new chips to upgrade its computers or rebuild a relationship with Nvidia. Now, as it starts its next journey, Apple can march to the beat of its own drum.
 
*****************************
Earlier Post

 
  • consensus: $1.39. Actual:
  • consensus: $84.69 billion. Actual:
  • whisper: $1.45. Actual:
CNBC: link here.

Thirty minutes before the close

*****************************
The Goldwater Clan

From A History of the Jews in America, Howard M. Sachar (1928 - 2018), c. 1992, page 55.

UAW Pension And Word For The Day -- No Connection -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45918UAW.

 UAW pension notes. Link here.

A two-tiered system, with 2007 as the "cut-off" date.

The US military went through / is going through the same two-tiered pension system process. This is not particularly new or concerning. 

*****************************
Word For The Day

Peculation

  • Embezzlement is the usual term used for this crime in modern laws.

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- COP -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45917DIV. 

 Wow, not a day goes by that I'm not thinking of that great investor, Carl H. Oksol. He taught me everything I know about investing. Today would be a particularly fun day on which to discuss the market. 

Specifically, COP.

Owns BR in the Bakken. 

Earnings

But wow, look at that dividend. Whoo-hoo.


This is exactly why I pay little attention to MMFs and don't buy bonds. Not enough excitement. 

A lot of analogies could be drawn between American football and baseball and stocks and bonds.

Anyway, whatever. 

Let's look at the ticker.

The IDF Does Not Need My Advice .... But ... November 2, 2023

Locator: 45916GAZA.

IDF's senior leadership needs to read two things:

  • Sun Tzu's Art of War; and,
  • General US Grant's orders to General Sherman.

I Guess If This Doesn't Blow You Away, Nothing Will -- Amazon Earnings. -- November 2, 2023

Locator: 45915RETAIL.

Link here.

Earlier this week, Target CEO mentioned  that consumers "were pulling back."

My reply: yes, they are moving to Walmart and Amazon.

But back to Amazon.

From $3 billion to $10 billion in one year. 

By the way, what did WMT do, year over year?

Costco?

Target?

Well, This Won’t Fit The Narrative — Bidenomics And The Goldilocks Economy — November 2, 2023

Locator: 45914ECON.

Link here.

The cost of labor unexpectedly declined in the third quarter, providing at least some relief on the inflation front. 
Unit labor costs, a measure of hourly compensation against productivity, fell 0.8% for the July-through-September period at a seasonally adjusted rate. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 0.7%. Holy mackerel.
On a 12-month basis, unit labor costs increased 1.9%. The breakdown reflected a 3.9% increase in hourly compensation, offset by a 4.7% rise in productivity. 
That increase in productivity also was more than expected, beating the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 4.3% for the biggest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2020. Is anyone paying attention? 
Output climbed 5.9%, while hours worked rose 1.1%. The developments come as the Federal Reserve is seeking to tamp down inflation through a series of interest rate increases. 
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said wage gains “have really come down significantly over the course of the last 18 months to a level where they’re substantially closer to that level that would be consistent with 2% inflation over time,” the central bank’s target.

*********************************
And So It Goes

Link here.

Saudi Update — November 2, 2023

Locator: 45913SAUDI.

Link here.

Saudi Arabia’s economy suffered its biggest contraction since 2020 during the third quarter. Gross domestic product fell by 4.5% compared with a year earlier, driven by a 17% drop in the oil sector. The kingdom posted a budget deficit in the third quarter of $9.5 billion, almost seven times larger than in the previous three months.

Biden To Release More Oil From The SPR — November 2, 2023

Locator: 45912OIL.

Note: over on social media, someone thought this was a re-cycled story, not realizing this would be a new withdrawal. LOL. The withdrawal will have no effect on America’s security. North Dakota Bakken can replace this much in six months. Speaking of which, has China invaded Taiwan yet?


14-year highs:
  • The U.S. government is contemplating releasing up to 180 million barrels of oil from its emergency supplies over several months in a bid to lower fuel prices and curb inflation. 
  • This bold move came a day before IEA member countries are expected to reveal a collective oil release and on the same day that OPEC refused to deviate from modest oil output rises. 
  • News of Biden's impending announcement pushed down oil prices, which hit 14-year highs in March
  • Analysts believe that Biden's plan could help the market rebalance this year but won't be enough to resolve the structural supply deficit caused by sanctions on Russia.
The price of oil has minimal impact on inflation. Period. Dot. 

Exhibit A: Starbucks.

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days — November 2, 2023

Locator: 45912B.

EVs: Peter Zeihan. Can’t be any more direct.

MDU: beats on EPS; misses on revenue. To spin off construction; MDU to be pure-play regulated energy business. Link here.

COP: earnings, beat.

SBUX: surging: up 8%. Folks paying up for pricey drinks. Yet Target CEO says customers pulling back — yes —> Amazon and Walmart. Logistics seems to be a real problem for Target.

ROKU: soars 18%.

PARA: $22 a year ago; now $10. Buffett bought about a year ago; still holds. Needs to be fact-checked.

AAPL: reports later today. To start iPhone production in India.

DVN: up slightly today.

One thing in common: DVN, CHRD, Grayson Mill, APA, FANG.

TECH: up huge today. Ex.: Palantir up 18%. Trading near $18 today, $5 a year ago. Seed corn starting to grow. 


**************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $81.60.

Friday, November 3, 2023: 90 for the month; 90 for the quarter, 660 for the year
39745, conf, Neptune Operating, Shaffer 27-22 2H, 
39598, conf, CLR, Brroks 6-9H1, 
39203, conf, Murex, PB-Sourina Angelina-1-12H MBH, 

Thursday, November 2, 2023: 87 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 657 for the year
39746, conf, Neptune Operating, Shaffer 27-22 3H, 
39205, conf, Murex, PB-Winston Axel 36-25H MB,
39204, conf, Murex, PB-Stephhen Luke 36-25H MB,
38836, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-4H, 

RBN ENERGY: financing, tariffs, prices, complicate the path to FID for LNG export projects
LNG export projects looking to take a positive final investment decision (FID) need to sell a high proportion of their nameplate capacity under long-term contracts to ensure sufficient cash flows to underpin the project and obtain financing. 
U.S.-based projects (new and expansions) totaling more than 350 million tons per annum (MMtpa, 48.3 Bcf/) — against a current global market of 400 MMtpa (52.9 Bcf/d) — are vying for creditworthy offtakers from multiple markets in their pre-FID deliberations. 
The sense of urgency among project sponsors has been boosted by the Russia/Ukraine war and a potentially resurgent Chinese economy, both of which should promise a bright future for new projects. 
Plenty of those have reached FID in the last couple of years, but what is holding others back from taking the same step? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at some of the factors impacting those decisions and the long-term implications that flow from them. 
Data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) shows that long-term sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) are in place for 73 MMtpa (9.7 Bcf/d) of LNG supply to be met by projects along the U.S. Gulf Coast. So far in 2023, three such projects have taken FID: NextDecade (17.6 MMtpa, 2.3 Bcf/d), Port Arthur (13 MMtpa, 1.7 Bcf/d), and Plaquemines Phase 2 (6.7 MMtpa, 0.9 Bcf/d) for a combined 37.3 MMtpa (4.9 Bcf/d), a significant amount in any year. But those three account for only 60% of the LNG signed up, with the rest divided among a number of pre-FID projects.

Seasonal Flu This Past Decade -- CDC -- November 1, 2023

Locator: 45911FLU.

Link here

Reminder:

  • 2019 - 2020: first hint of Covid-19 might have been late 2019, just at the start of the seasonal flu season. The 2019 - 2020 season would have been the last "seasonal flu" season not impacted by Covid-19.
  • 2020 - 2021: the height of Covid-19; profound effects on "seasonal flu" numbers. Some say this season, 2023 - 2024, will be a similarly light season for seasonal flu.

‘Seasonal flu” during the year of Covid was such an outlier, researchers will be studying and writing about this for years.