Friday, September 20, 2024

Week 38: September 16, 2024 -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48587TOPSTORIES. 

Top story

  • exploding Hezbollah pagers

Top international non-energy story:

  • Mideast: Israel opens a new front -- Lebanon, Hezbollah
  • Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

  • WTI: solidly above $71 but oil investors struggle by end of week

Top national non-energy story:

  • the presidential campaign seems to be losing steam; is it all over?
  • the Fed finally announces a rate cut: 50 basis points; market surges

Top national energy story:


Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close -- although flat /red at the close Friday, it was a huge week for the market with many, many records set --

Wow, Wow, Wow -- Friday Night -- If You Came Her For The Bakken, Keep Scrolling -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48341ARCHIVES.

Friday nights I save for "top stories," but that's such drudgery.

I think this must be the most relaxed, happy, calm I've been in a long time, perhaps in my life, save for those evenings in Yorkshire, England, in the early 2000s. 

The past two weeks .... everything, everywhere happening all at once .... with regard to family, blogging, physical pain (I think the worst I've ever experienced), but no emotional pain (thank goodness), needing to be in three places at one time ...

But now, all of a sudden two hours, maybe three hours of early evening perfectness. Is that even a word?

So, what does one do when in such a state? Start with the best.

I opened the current issue of The Atlantic. This issue is all about Trump. We'll come back to that later. 

But there are a couple of exceptions. One of the exceptions: a five-pay essay on Leonard Cohen, or more accurately, an essay on a new biography of Leonard Cohen being released this month, September, 2024. The 500-page book: Christophe Lebold's: The Man Who Saw the Angels Fall.

I read excerpts of the book at Amazon; the first song mentioned: "I Can't Forget" from I'm Your Man (1988). 

I'm surrounded by magazines and books that I've started but only (just started). I can pick up any one of those magazines and/or books and find the spot where I left off and begin reading again. The three books I'm most actively engaged with right now: The Plausible Man; Horse; and, Geniuses At War. There's a fourth, The Annotated Mrs Dalloway.

The YouTube "Leonard Cohen" loop is now playing "The Eve of Destruction," Barry McGuire

Creeque Alley. 

Link here.


Creeque Alley.


No more videos.

The YouTube "Leonard Cohen" loop is now playing "City of New Orleans," which leads to the next question, google transportation why is the train the most romantic:

Bob Dylan's "Things Have Changed."

Few poets age as well as Bob Dylan. He got way, way better as he aged. Maybe Leonard Cohen, also.

And now, "Hallelujah," Andre Rieu, 2013. Wow. What a wonderful evening.

My wife asks me what I had for dinner. May is having trouble deciding what she wants. She's convalescing from surgery. I offer her soup. She says she's tired of soup. I said I will get her a grilled chicken sandwich at Chick-Fil-A. She says she's tired of Chick-Fil-A. I said I'm not in the mood for a rotisserie chicken but if that's what she would like, I would get one. Not interested. Then, her favorite: sushi. But not even sushi tonight.

How amazing it is. All the choices, all the options available. 

I have a blog for May, called Mayumi's Moveable Feast.

Resting Teslas -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48340TESLA.

Impossible to ignore. Link here. I'll post video / photo when I get a chance. I don't know rules about showing license plates on YouTube. Story was being reported as far back as 2018 in The New York Times. Fascinating. But it simply appears these are "Tesla Delivery Centers": cars that have been ordered, paid for, delivered and now waiting for owners to claim them.

We're seeing the same thing in the DFW area where Tesla has a huge consumer-buying population! Link here. Specifically in the Glade Parks shopping mall parking lot, opposite Target, off Glade Avenue, Euless, TX.


In the DFW area, these cars all have license plates suggesting they have already been sold. Were they all foreclosed on? Brought back by customers for various reasons? The license plates are in perfect condition, suggesting either never been driven, or "barely" driven.

Peter Zeihan -- On Ted Cruz -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48339POLITICS.

Tag: Peter Zeihan.

Link here


Be sure to complete the thread.


Seven New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48338B.

Dow Jones: set another new record high closing -- 42063.8 despite a miserable day for energy. And WTI trending toward $72. 

AAPL: fell back at the close. Closed at its open. Flat for the day.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.92.

Active rigs: 40.

Seven new permits, #41159 - #41165, inclusive:

  • Operators: Phoenix Operating (5); Silver Hill Energy; Hess.
  • Fields: Kittleson Slough (Mountrail); Enget Lake (Mountrail); Ellsworth (McKenzie).
  • Comments:
    • Hess has a permit for a BW-Sharown Lynor well, NWNE 20-149-100; 
      • to be sited 470 FNL and 2570 FEL; three-section spacing unit: sections 20 / 29 / 32;
    • Silver Hill Energy has a permit for a Christine well, SWSW 10-158-93, 
      • to be sited 358 FSL and 439 FWL; four-section spacing unit: sections 3 / 4 / 9 / 10;
    • Phoenix Operating has permit for four Pladson wells, lot 4, section 4-157-91; 
      • to be sited 299 FNL and at 1228 FWL, 1258 FWL, 1288 FWL, 1348 FWL, and 1378 FWL.
      • two wells are two-section spacing; sections 4 / 9;
      • three wells are three-section spacing; sections 21 / 28 / 33

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40361, 460, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5601 13-12 3B, Williams County

Dry hole:

  • 40411, dry, CLR, Anheluk 4-26H, Billings County.

More Powerful Rivians Announced -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48337EVS.

Rivian links today:

Link here.

Link here. Look at the "starting" prices of these EVs.

"They" say overall sales of vehicles are not doing well this year. "They" say folks are waiting to buy a new car for better rates. 

My hunch: that's accurate, but worse, they see these "starting prices" and assume that's true for all new cars. In fact, non-EV, smaller cars remain quite affordable, but I assume a lot of folks are afraid to go look.

Ticker, RIVN:

  • fell 11% today!
  • fell 13% this past week$
  • past full year: has fallen 50%.

Three days ago, link here.


From
InsideEVs today (dynamic link).

This was the top story:

Second story:

And there's the "weight" story.

Meanwhile, for Tesla, link here:

We're seeing the same thing in the DFW area where Tesla has a huge consumer-buying population! Link here.


In the DFW area, these cars all have license plates suggesting they have already been sold. Were they all foreclosed on? Brought back by customers for various reasons? The license plates are in perfect condition, suggesting either never been driven, or "barely" driven.

Clearing Out The In-Box; Clearing Off The Desktop -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48336TECH.

When it comes to AI, there are two camps:

  • one camp: it's all hype / it's all hyped;
  • the second camp: it's the real deal.
I'm in the second camp.

Tag: Intel, INTC, Qualcomm, QCOM, Mideast, FedEx.

Beth, link here.

Intel, the dots are starting to connect. Ten little Indians; then there were nine.

Fedex: so predictable. Saw it coming two years ago. Posted those thoughts at that time. See this recent post.

Mideast:

Anna May Wong:

A Lot Of Bakken Activity To Report Mid-Month; Hess Will Report Another Huge Well -- September 20, 2024

Locator: 48335B.

WTI: $71.95.

Sunday, September 22, 2024: 48 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 500 for the year
40351
, conf, KODA Resources, Stout1435-6BH,
40350, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 14-2-5BH,
40240, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-7, Beaver Lodge,

Saturday, September 21, 2024: 45 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 497 for the year
40560, conf, Slawson, Prowler 1 SLH,
39934, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-156-92-1423H-2,
23385, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 6H,

Friday, September 20, 2024: 42 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 494 for the year
40502
, conf, CLR, Kennedy 9-31HSL,
39933, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-3,
23388, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 3TFH,
23387
, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 4H,
23386
, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 5H, 

Nice: oldest field in the Williston Basin:

  • 40240, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-7, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241753049541
6-20242233459187
5-20242409445394
4-20244435083258
3-20241471925476

RBN Energy: US gas producers remain financially sound despite red ink in first-half 2024.

E&P investors have historically been a skittish lot, and for good reason. In the second half of the 2010s, the S&P E&P Index had as many sudden ups and downs as Coney Island’s famous Cyclone roller coaster, culminating in a near crash in early 2020 as equity prices bottomed out at one-tenth their peak. A fairly smooth annual return of nearly 7% over the 2021-to-Q2 2024 period has wooed money back to a sector that now prioritizes shareholder returns. But wariness remains, especially as natural gas prices cratered to three-decade summer lows. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the balance sheets and budgets of the U.S. gas-focused producers we track to determine if there are causes for concern.

The Lines Are Back! September 20, 2024

Locator: 48334APPLE.

Link here

********************************
Apple Wins Big
S&P Re-Shuffle

Link here

From the linked article:

Equity gauges from S&P Dow Jones Indices and FTSE Russell will be revamped, today, Friday, with this quarterly activity forecast to be the busiest in almost four years thanks to tech-driven market gyrations.

Apple Inc.’s weighting will be increased in key benchmarks after Warren Buffett’s recent share sale. At the same time, new S&P index-capping rules, which govern allocations for the largest companies, are scheduled to kick in.

With fresh demand among benchmark trackers for the likes of Apple and new additions to the S&P 500 — Palantir Technologies Inc. and Dell Technologies Inc. — computer and software shares will buck the broad trend of net outflows for other industries, Piper Sandler & Co. estimates show.

All told, tech names are expected to see $40 billion of net buying, with Apple making up the bulk
The rebalance is set to round out a big week, between the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut in four years and a quarterly episode known as triple witching.
With $5.1 trillion of derivatives tied to stocks and indexes scheduled to mature Friday, that can spur market turbulence as traders roll over their existing positions or start new ones.

Not on my bingo card today: