“Things” Are Moving Way Too Fast — November 27, 2023

Locator: 46194TECH.

Late night reading. Very, very interesting.

• A mutual fund (e.g., BRK) doesn’t need a hoard of cash. But tech companies do.
• More on this tomorrow. 

**************************
Other Headlines

Dead: small modular new reactors. Will die on the vine for the same reasons most EV start-ups won't survive. Peter Zeihan.

Falling: Micron.

Amazon: palm reading. Remember Jason Bourne?

Amazon: record-breaking sales in 11-day stretch leading up to and including Black Friday.

Burned out?  How to cancel digital subscriptions.

Burning out? ONE cutting 25% of its workforce. A lot packed into that short article.

Supply chain issues? Lego. Link here. This is amazing considering we’re already in a recession (Charlie Munger). I do not ever recall seeing so many Lego sets on backorder. Including the new $629.99 (no typo) Eiffel Tower. The good news: free shipping. And no sales tax if you live in Montana. Will ship by December 11, 2023. The Hogwarts Express is already back to $499.99 after dropping to $399.99 during the Black Friday promotion.Yes, on back order.

Promising: dividends in 2024 — Barron’s.

Energy: anticipate stellar performance in 2024 — Barron’s. This article was posted several months ago.

Renewable energy: investing rout this past year is causing a panic. FT. Link here.

Record: Americans flying.

Delfin Project: update.

Rivian: can it survive five more years?

Boeing: more room to run. Barron's: says another 25%.

UK wind: link here.

Fisker -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46193EVS.

Story here.

Memo To Self: We Need A Post On Non-Apple Companies Selling Apple iPhones -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46192APPLE.

If you know, you know.

I'll update this post later.

But now? It's Monday Night Football. Having said that, I don't know how Troy Aikman can stand working with Joe Buck. That's all I have to say about that.

This One Is Still A Work In Progress, But For Those Who Know The Bakken, Know -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46191B.

I'll complete this post later. Family commitments. LOL. No! It's Monday Night Football. [Later: wow, what a game.]

A year ago:

Eight new permits, #39351 - #39358, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (4); MRO (4)
• Fields: Dollar Joe (Williams); Killdeer (Dunn)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for two Clyde Hauge wells, NWNW 13-155-97, 
• to be sited 324 FNL and at 322 FWWL and 412 FWL
• CLR has permits for two Vance wells, NENE 14-155-97, t
• o be sited 305 FNL and at 517 FWL and 562 FWL
• MRO has permits for four wells, a Knox, a Guy Carlson, a Hadley and a Kye, SENW 6-145-94; 
• to be sited between 1496 FNL and 1510 FNL and between 1566 FWL and 1685 FWL

Today: 

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39353, 3,481, MRO, Knox 24-31TFH,
• 39355, 2,382, MRO, Hadley 34-31TFH,
• 39356, 3,304, MRO, Kye 44-31H,
• 39181, 4,193, MRO, Jack 44-31TFH,

Well of interest:

• 16759, 415, MRO, Grant Carlson 24-13H, Killdeer, t4/08; cum 554K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	16290	16285	26860	18801	18446	302
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	18838	18826	47819	16966	16890	28
BAKKEN	7-2023	30	14774	14856	54683	13983	13834	103
BAKKEN	6-2023	15	14144	13964	48646	12861	12291	528
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	6	119	254	41	366	319	22
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1137	1150	473	2704	2270	177
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1399	1398	632	3315	2796	227

 The maps:

How Good A Day Did The World's Biggest Toy Company Do On Black Friday - Cyber Monday? November 27, 2023

Locator: 46190LEGO.

It's only Monday, and still a few hours left for Cyber Monday, but this sort of tells the whole story:

No discounts on these sets and yet both are on backorder. 

Not even Christmas and Duplo train sets for the younger kids no longer available at the Lego site.

Amazing.

Two New Permits; One Permit Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46189B.

Active rigs: 34.

WTI: $75.00

Two new permits, #40355 - #40356, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill, CLR
• Fields: Elk (McKenzie); Little Kniffe (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has a permit for an Alfred South well, NESE 19-151-102,
• to be sited 2316 FSL and 458 FEL;
• CLR has a permit for a Thorp Federal well, SWNW 21-148-97, 
• to be sited 1809 FNL andd 335 FWL;

One permit renewed:

• 35760, Hunt, Nichols, Ross oil field, Mountrail County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39353, 3,481, MRO, Knox 24-31TFH,
• 39355, 2,382, MRO, Hadley 34-31TFH,
• 39356, 3,304, MRO, Kye 44-31H,
• 39181, 4,193, MRO, Jack 44-31TFH,

Recession --> Stagflation --> Disinflation --> Deflation -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46188ECON.

I'm starting to hear the word "deflation" a lot more often the past two weeks. 

*********************
Amazon

Link here.

Amazon.com has grabbed the crown of biggest delivery business in the U.S., surpassing both UPS and FedEx in parcel volumes.

The Seattle e-commerce giant delivered more packages to U.S. homes in 2022 than UPS, after eclipsing FedEx in 2020, and it is on track to widen the gap this year.

The U.S. Postal Service is still the biggest parcel service by volume; it handles hundreds of millions of packages for all three companies.

A decade ago Amazon was a major customer for UPS and FedEx, and some executives from the incumbents and analysts mocked the notion that it could someday supplant them.

Amazon’s outsize growth combined with strategy shifts at FedEx and UPS have changed the balance. Before Thanksgiving this year, Amazon had already delivered more than 4.8 billion packages in the U.S., and its internal projections predict that it will deliver around 5.9 billion by the end of the year. Last year Amazon shipped 5.2 billion packages.

*********************
Black Friday

We live in a fairly nice, not-quite-high-end apartment complex, with about twenty separate buildings, each building with three floors and about thirty units in each of the twenty buildings.

It appears that 80% of tenants use Amazon on a regular basis and on any given day of two units of ten units on each floor have Amazon packages sitting at their door.

Today, Monday morning, the first "workday" after Black Friday and the story is quite different. 

"Everyone" is getting a package and many door mats have multiple Amazon boxes. It's quite startling. 

I expect to see something similar through the rest of the week.

************************
For The Archives

May and I try to visit the grandsons in Portland, on average, every two to three months. We travel / visit separately.

May likes to spend the holidays with the grandsons; I like to spend non-holiday dates with the grandsons.

May has just spent the last ten Thanksgiving days with the grandsons.

Levi and Judah are 3.5 years old.

Levi is the serious thinker. Judah is more fun-loving, the jokester.

This was the "message" traffic earlier today with daughter Laura and grandson Judah and Levi taking Grammy May back to the airport for her return trip to DFW, Texas. We live five minutes (driving time) to the west of the airport.

*******************************
End-Of-Year Trading: The Market

Tailwinds:

• rotation from tech to non-tech? Nope. If not, from where is the money coming to push the market higher?
  
• tax -loss harvesting: the next two weeks.
  
• cash on the sidelines, A: my favorite chart.
  
• cash on the sidelines, B: bears.
  
• FOMO:
• unsaid: 
• oil is way, way too cheap; or,
• oil is paying great dividends.
  

Best Political Speech Today -- President Biden On Supply Chain -- November 27, 2023

 Locator: 46187POLITICS.

As an investor, I always used to dread Obama speeches mid-day. 

Thanksgiving dinner, 2023: fourth least expensive Thanksgiving meal since records kept. Not trivial. Haven't seen that reported before.

Container ships off the coast of Los Angeles: the backlog has completely disappeared.

Biden: junk fees now illegal. Not trivial.

Biden: I agree completely with Biden's comments on "price gouging." Exhibit A, least expensive, generic white bread:

• Albertson's: $1.88 (46% more expensive than Walmart's shelf price)
  
• Target: $1.38
• Walmart: $1.29

Biden: very clever -- using the Defense Production Act to consumers' advantage.

Biden: I love it when Biden goes off-script. 

American Enterprise Institute: sickening. Very disappointing. More and more, I find myself disconnected from the thinking of AEI. I’ve long given up on MAGA.

Romney: lately in the news -- his comments on whom he would support in the 2024 presidential election. I understand exactly from where Romney is coming.

**********************
A Most Interesting Cover
for The New Yorker

See if you can see the "what bothers me" about this cover.

Yahoo Mail Attachments Exceeding 24MB -- Options

Locator: 46186PSA.

See this link.

Of the seven services mentioned, I tried "Filemail."

"Share large files up to 5GB free using free - fast secure file transfer."

Worked flawlessly the first time. Brilliant.

I've used other file sharing services. They all seem to work well; this one is simply the latest I tried, and for now it looks like it will be my "go-to" / default way to send files up to 5GB. 

Personal Investing -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46185B.

Reminder: all posts are done quickly. All posts contain typographical and content errors. I never make any investment recommendations.

I used to share my personal investing information with some readers through e-mail but after losing access to my e-mail account -- long story previously posted -- I am now posting some of that same information on the blog. 

Market: early trading -- BRK-B down 1%; AAPL? Green.  MSFT: hits a new all-time high today.

S&P: just went green in early afternoon trading, Cyber Monday.  BRK-B remains negative.

Personal investing: 

• as mentioned last week, I'm fully invested, having added my last tranch for November, last week;
• early morning trading tells me three things:
• AI is still a strong long-term investment;
• OpenAI / ChatGPT is the 600-pound gorilla
• Microsoft has the keys to the gorilla's cage
• what does this mean for me
• my entire December investment allotment will go into MSFT
• The question: how to do that?
• several options
• more later, perhaps

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Note: MSFT will still be a small part of my overall portfolio, but my goal is to readjust my portfolio over the next six months. I started the process about two years ago, going slowly and staying within my strategic plan.

My current bucket allotments for new money, from November 20, 2023:

My bucket allotments will not change for the long term, but the allotment percentages may be adjusted slightly beginning in late 2024 or early 2025. I'm thinking of going 30% large cap; and 30% tech; and, leaving everything else the same.  

However, starting this next month, December, 2023, my entire "new money" allotment will go into MSFT and that will continue at least through February. 

Starting March, I plan to return to the allotment as noted in the chart above.

From Michael Fitzsimmons today:

I'm not sure what he means by an "ordinary investor." I do know that Warren Buffett has stated that the S&P 500 is his benchmark. If he hasn't said that specifically, he has implied it in his annual letters and it appears "all" analysts compare BRK with the S&P 500. See disclaimers.

Cyber Monday -- November 27, 2023

Locator: 46184B.

Page views: overnight, last 12 hours -- 723. 7:41 a.m. CT.

NE Patriots: quarterback benched at half-time. Time to bench Belichick? Tea leaves: he will survive the regular season.

Gaza: truce to be extended for two days.

Flu season: off to a slow start. 

Cyber Monday: best deals. Engadget.

• some Lego sets as much as 53% discount;
• I may visit our local Bricks and Minifigures store today; not sure yet;
  

Not Paramount?  Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” to stream everywhere except on Disney+, Hulu, and Paramount? Apple and Amazon Prime  figure prominently. Link here. Ticker DIS down 1% in early Cyber Monday trading. Same with PARA.

Market: early trading -- BRK-B down 1%; AAPL? Green.  MSFT: hits a new all-time high.

F1 Las Vegas: exceeded expectations.

USAF news: X-37B update.

• sixth mission completed: 906 days in orbit; launched May 17, 2020 recovered November 12, 2022; 
• mission described as a success
  
• seventh mission:
• first time to be launched from an Elon Musk Space X Falcon Heavy
• launch date: December 7, 2023
• recovery date: unannounced

DFW: a bit cool this morning -- everyone wearing parkas at the school bus stop

• inside the apartment, probably 70°F -- that's what the thermostat shows and the furnace is turned off
• Bat Cave: surprisingly toasty warm
• clear; it's going to be an incredibly beautiful day.

Headlines from yesterday, November 26, 2023.

Focus on fracking: November 26, 2023, "issue" released.

Bakken activity of interest:

• Kiefel: CLR has fracked the Kiefel wells in West Capa.
• North Fork: BR active in North Fork.
• Pershing: BR active in Pershing.
• Dennis / Flint Chip: the incredible CLR wells have been updated.
• Enerplus LK Bice: incredible wells in Big Gulch.
• Kukla: the CLR wells in Chimney Butte have reached 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.

****************************
Bakken News Today

WTI: $75.00

Tuesday, November 28, 2023: 140 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 710 for the year
39820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 6A-29-32-158N-1000W-MBH-LL,
39814, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 10-18H2,
39145, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-2H,
37109, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH,

Monday, November 27, 2023: 136 for the month; 136 for the quarter, 706 for the year
39772, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 2-18H,

Sunday, November 26, 2023: 135 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 705 for the year
38781, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 54001 442-24 3B,
37108, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3C UTFH,

Saturday, November 25, 2023: 133 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 703 for the year
39144, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-1H, 

RBN Energy: oil and gas producers' earnings rebound in 3Q23 after a five-quarter slide.

The cacophony of Black Friday promotions may make us all wonder if the “giving thanks” part of the fourth Thursday of November has been subsumed by rampant consumerism. But we suspect that E&P executives sat down to more traditional celebrations of gratitude as the upstream part of the oil and gas industry rebounded nicely in Q3 from five consecutive periods of declining profits and cash flows. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze Q3 2023 E&P earnings and cash flows and provide some perspective on the past and future profitability of U.S. oil and gas producers. 

Over the past three years we’ve chronicled the remarkable recovery of the U.S. E&P sector from its dramatic price crash at the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. The recovery was fueled by rising commodity prices and the strategic transformation to a fiscally conservative model that prioritizes cash flow and shareholder returns. Producers’ earnings reached historic highs in Q2 2022, but steadily declined in subsequent quarters with oil and natural gas prices. As we explained in Bottoms Up, results reached a recent nadir in Q2 2023. Then, the 40 E&P companies we monitor reported pre-tax operating earnings of $12.18/boe and cash flow of $22.95/boe, down 71% and 55%, respectively, from the high five quarters ago.