Taps For TAPS -- We're That Close -- Biden Vs COP -- February 1, 2023

Reminder: May 30, 2021: why President Biden approved COP's giant Willow Field in Alaska. It was all about saving the TAPS -- a national security issue. 

The Willow project: is all about saving TAPS.

President Biden could lose another pipeline -- though killing COP's Willow exploratory project would not result in loss of TAPS during Biden's first term but it could during Biden's second term.

My two cents: COP needs to go nose-to-nose with Biden administration -- "five or nothing; and nothing means the end of TAPS." 

Re-posting: 

Alaska: COP might get its 3-well project. Alaska is tracked here.

• Reminder: May 30, 2021: why President Biden approved COP's giant Willow Field in Alaska. It was all about saving the TAPS -- a national security issue. Update: link here.
  

• Willlow project on North Slope
• 600 million bbls; $8 billion
• COP wants 5-well exploration project
• Biden willing to go to 3-well program -- COP says anything less is uneconomical
• if no decision quickly, summer 2023 drilling program dead
  
• Biden says "okay" but bureaucrats hold the sealed envelope with the final decision. Me? The story is a political story, not an energy story -- except for COP which is running out of oil plays.

Willow by the numbers:

• 600 million bbls recoverable
• 200,000 bopd production
• 3,000 days of production
• ten years of production
• global production: 200,000 bopd / 100 million bopd = 0.2%
• US production: 200,000 bopd / 12 million bopd = 1.6%
• Permian production: 200,000 bopd / 3.5 million bopd = 5.7%

Guyana-Suriname Basin: rise from obscurity to super potential, WorldOil, May, 2021.

• estimates of 10+ billion bbls of oil
• estimates of 30 tera cubic feet of natural gas

July 1, 2016: this ExxonMobil - Guyana story is getting a lot of press. This may be quite a story:

ExxonMobil and its partner Hess Corp. have announced that the major discovery off the coast of Guyana, is a discovery that is much larger than previously expected.

The Liza field could turn out to be the largest oil discovery reported in two years and the companies say that it could cost $18 billion to develop.

Exxon describes it as a “world-class discovery with a recoverable resource of between 800 million and 1.4 billion oil-equivalent barrels.”

That could amount to as much as half of the entire volume of oil discovered across the entire industry in 2015.

 Update: link here.

More background data, from the EIA, April 26, 2021: 

Why Biden Approved ConocoPhillips' Willow Field In Alaska: It's All About Securing The TAPS -- Fitzsimmons -- SeekingAlpha -- May 30, 2021

Link here. 

• Some investors were highly surprised when President Biden's Justice Department supported the continued development of Conoco's massive Willow field in Alaska.
• I was not. As I wrote earlier on Seeking Alpha, ironically Biden could be great for Conoco Phillips' stock.
• One thing is clear: Biden is an energy pragmatist. He wants to see the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline flowing because it is an issue of national security.
• And the Alaskan Pipeline needs new oil to keep it operating.
• One could also argue that 100,000 bpd from a conventional reservoir like Willow is much more environmentally friendly than the equivalent number of shale wells.

Archived.

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Amazon TV Stick

Every day I move a bit closer to catching up with our daughters and grandchildren when it comes to technology.

Our younger daughter has had the Amazon Fire TV Stick for quite some time and loves it. 

A few months ago I ordered an Amazon Fire TV Stick. Amazon was upgrading their fire stick at the time and I was put on the "wait list."

I forgot all about it. 

This past week while I was out of town the Fire Stick arrived. 

I set it up this afternoon. Wow, was installation easy. I was very careful to follow instructions (there weren't many) and within minutes it was set up and running. The only reason it took "minutes" was because it downloaded a bit of software. 

I was blown away by how easy it was to set up and I'm blown away by how incredible it is to have "cable" television once again. 

Amazon Prime Video is part of the Amazon Prime package. Starting this year I will be able to watch Thursday Night Football. 

In addition, Pluto TV: free. 

And finally, Hulu.

For all of that, I'm paying about a third of what I was paying Spectrum for 20th century television. 

Break, break.

As I begin to learn more about this, it certainly suggests that Amazon.com with the Fire TV Stick is to television streaming as Apple was to iTunes in the early days. If that makes sense. 

But, it's very clear that Amazon / Fire TV Stick is huge. I still maintain that Apple TV+ is not keeping up with Amazon. I'm way ahead of my headlights here, just rambling but it appears that Disney+, Netflix, Hulu, are simply "content" / streaming companies. 

Amazon, with Prime Video, and the Fire TV Stick, is both a software (streaming/content) company as well as a hardware device. 

I don't know if this makes sense to anyone; I'm learning as I go along. We now get PBS.

The "one thing" we could not "get" on Hulu / Amazon Fire TV Stick was PBS. That was my wife's only complaint.

It turns out that one can get PBS via one's local network on the Fire Stick.

It is amazing how three devices interacted to make this all possible:

• a "dumb" Smart TV (Philips) bought several years ago;
• an Amazon Fire TV Stick (most recent update);
• an Apple MacBook Air (an internet connection required to input "activation codes").

Ten years from now will Amazon have an ecosystem that is better than Apple's? I'm beginning to wonder.

Notes From All Over; The Friday Late Afternoon Edition -- April 30, 2021

Vitol: largest independent, privately-held, energy trader in the world. Wiki entry.

• just bought 44,000 acres in the Permian from Hunt Oil Co.
• purchase price not disclosed
• earlier, Hunt said its acreage could command a price of $1 billion
• so, that's all we have to go on
• $1 billion / 44,000 acres = $23,000 / acre which seems to be in the ballpark for Permian mineral acres
• currently the Hunt acreage is producing about 1 boe per mineral acre.
• this is Vitol's first step into the USL48 = US lower 48 -- the continental US, excludes Hawaii (no oil) and Alaska (lots of oil but producing increasingly trivial amounts)
• I guess the L48 also excludes federal offshore production but I don't know;
• it just seems that all of a sudden the writers and analysts are using L48 as if it's a new term for them
• for me, the L48 is only applicable if reporting from Alaska
• from Hawaii: it's the mainland
• from NYC it's fly-over country (California isn't producing much oil any more)
• our very clever younger adult daughter would argue that "lower" 48 suggests there's an "upper" 48 somewhere?

Alaska: what great timing. Up above I noted that Alaska oil production is becoming increasingly trivial. Literally, less than 30 minutes after writing that, I come across this Rigzone article: 

Crude oil production in Alaska fell to about 500,000 bpd last year, the lowest level since 1976 and down 75% from the peak of 2 million bpd in 1988. [In fact, that 500,000 bopd may be an average rounded up; by the end of the year, I think production had fallen slightly below 400,000 bopd.]

Carbon capture projects, by country. Link here. Readers each get three guesses which country has the most carbon capture projects in the works, and the first two guesses, if wrong, don't count. Hint: the country is not China, Russia, Germany, Norway, Saudi Arabia, or Lichtenstein. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.58	4/30/2021	04/30/2020	04/30/2019	04/30/2018	04/30/2017
Active Rigs	15	31	64	61	49

No new permits today.

Ten permits renewed:

• BR (5): two Shafer permits; two Sandie permits; and, one Ole permit, all in McKenzie County;
• Whiting (3): three Lacey permits in Mountrail County;
• Lime Rock Resources: one Robert Sadowsky permit in Dunn County;
• SHD Oil & Gas: one War Eagle permit in McLean County;

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- July 9, 2019

DAPL: The activist is not the man who says the river is dirty. The activist is the man who cleans up the river.-- Ross Perot.

Reminder: next Director's Cut scheduled to be released at 3:00 p.m. CT, July 15, 2019 -- that would be next Monday. 

Wow, there was a lot of news today. I will run through it quickly and come back to it if a) I find time; b) it still interests me; and, c) has any relevancy to the Bakken. In other words, unlikely that I will return to this stuff.

First things first. Time to turn the music on. We will start with Charlie Rich, my current "go-to" favorite. Later: now it's Gypsy by Fleetwood Mac -- always reminds me of our dating days in Los Angeles: May's favorite group at the time; getting trapped in the Velvet Turtle in Los Angeles on Chinese New Year's Eve; St Elsewhere.

EPD - ETP: to the Supreme Court of Texas.

The case has been viewed by the Texas legal community as the most important business dispute between two Texas companies since Joe Jamail’s epic Pennzoil-Texaco victory in the 1980s, which yielded a $10 billion bill for Texaco.

The court hinges on a "he-said, he-said."

No agreement was signed for a lucrative joint venture; just a handshake. EPD eventually went with Enbridge, jilting ETP. ETP says the oral agreement should suffice. Not a lot of money involved in the big scheme of things, I suppose, for the parties involved, but if the Supreme Court of Texas agrees that oral agreements can stand ...

EPD: increases its dividend to 44 cents/common unit, to be paid August 13, 2019. This distribution, which represents a 2.3 percent increase over the distribution declared with respect to the second quarter of 2018, is the partnership’s 60th consecutive quarterly distribution increase. Earlier today there was a very, very negative article on investing in the oil sector. Whatever.

EPD: continues to prove why its such an excellent dividend stock -- Motley Fool. Currently yields 6%. In a down market today, EPD rose.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

ENB: commences open season for Canada's Express Pipeline. Huge deal.

The shippers will be able to carry oil from Hardisty, Alberta, to Express Pipeline LLC pipeline, which operates the portion of the Express Pipeline in the United States. Per the company, the shipper will appreciate this open season since the pipeline bottleneck problem prevents transportation of sufficient oil from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

NOG: analysts see a huge move (up or down) for NOG soon; analysts don't know which way NOG will move, but the trading pattern suggests something's "up." Zacks. I've made my decision but I won't say anything until after earnings report for 2Q19 is released.

WTI: nice little move. Up 84 cents now (7:21 p.m. CT) after API report today. Trading above $58. Could hit $60 again by the end of summer. Another huge development.

Tesla: prices could surge -- Musk. June, 2019, EV sales here.

Is this why Elon Musk said prices could surge? We will get back to this one. This is a big story. From Bloomberg, the US and the EU are getting "more anxious" about EV battery component shortages.

Or this: eleven autonomous driving software engineers have left Tesla over the past few weeks.

For Tesla newbies: I can't find it now, but there's a marketing term for what Musk Melon does. Whenever things look bad, he makes an outlandish statement to drive sales. With lots of bad news today, Musk Melon did it again: "Buy a Tesla now, folks, because this autumn the prices are going to surge."

Dell, Montana: population 35.

Basically a gas station and a general store along the side of the highway. But get this: out in the middle of nowhere this gas station/general store has four EV charging stations. Not sure if they still work. Link here (if you don't believe me, google "ev charging station dell montana." Screenshot:

Global economy: bearish signs. Consider the source. For these guys, it's always a bearish outlook.

Ecuador - CVX: Ecuador drops the last case against CVX. CVX today? Flat.

Hope springs eternal: we mentioned this yesterday; no link then. Here's the link. 

“I have no doubt in my mind that U.S. shale will peak, plateau and then decline like every other basin in history,” Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in Vienna this week, as reported by Bloomberg. Apparently alfalfa did not get the memo. See next entry. Alfalfa is going to be waiting a long time for the US shale sector to "peak, plateau, and then decline."

The memo. Link here. 

TransMountain: could be TransAlaska. Link at Calgary Herald. 

For my son-in-law in Portland: a 1971 Ford Bronco story.

The Ford Bronco holds an important place in automotive history.

After World War II, GIs came back to America, bought Army surplus Jeeps, and created a new sport—off-roading.

The Jeeps were small and uncomfortable. In the mid-1960s, Ford developed a more spacious vehicle to fill this niche—the Bronco.

[Notable competition at the time included the Jeep Wagoneer.]

A durable and reliable four-wheel drive truck, you could take it camping or to the mountains. [Ford built the Bronco from the mid-1960s to the mid-1990s; the company recently announced it would launch a new iteration in 2020.]

Caps and hats: a reader suggests a Democrat alternative to the MAGA cap.

MDU / Las Vegas: mega-resort contract.

MDU Resources Group, Inc. announced today that its subsidiaries, Bombard Electric, LLC, and Bombard Mechanical, LLC, have been awarded contracts for electrical and mechanical construction at Resorts World Las Vegas, a mega-resort under construction on the Las Vegas Strip.

Bucket list: we've talked about this before -- I don't have a "bucket list."

I'm retired. A "bucket list" sounds like a "jobs list." I don't have plans for the weekend; I don't know what I'm doing tomorrow; I don't even know what I will be doing three hours from now. I thought about that on the long drive from Montana back to Texas this past weekend, a two-night, three-day trip. We had no plans on the way back from Montana, no "bucket list" to complete.

But when we passed the "opal capital of America" it dawned on me: I had a "how 'bout" moment. Instead of a "bucket list," I have a "how 'bout" philosophy. When driving down the road if I pass something that looks interesting, I saw to 5-year-old Sophia, "how 'bout stopping at the opal capital of America?" If she says "yes," the turn signal goes on and we leave the highway for a "how 'bout" moment.

Enterprise: best rental car company in the business. Bar none.

***************************

Back To School After Her Montana Vacation

Random Update On The Trans-Alaska Pipeline -- October 15, 2017

We haven't heard much about the Trans-Alaska Pipeline lately. Not good news.

The Denver Post, April 16, 2017:

The 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline System was built for extreme conditions. But as the state’s oil production has declined, the pipeline faces a new challenge: flows so sluggish operators worry the line may become unusable, cutting off access for hundreds of North Slope oil wells.

Every four days, a device known as a pig, a sort of industrial Q-Tip, is sent hurtling through the 48-inch-wide pipeline to scrub out debris.

So far, that’s kept the oil moving. But it comes at a price: higher transport costs for a product that’s already at an economic disadvantage to other supplies around the globe. Alyeska’s technical fixes should allow the pipeline to keep operating at volumes as low as 300,000 barrels a day, a threshold that could be reached by the middle of the next decade.

Tri-City Herald, October 5, 2017:

Nearly every Alaskan will wake up $1,100 richer Thursday, thanks to this year's payout from the state's oil wealth investment fund.

The distribution from the Alaska Permanent Fund is essentially free money for residents, who already don't pay a state income tax or statewide sales tax. But it's just half of the expected $2,200 windfall, which was reduced for the second straight year to help the state pay its bills amid a recession due to continued low oil prices.

Unlike previous distributions, the amount of this year's payout was quietly announced in mid-September in a short news release. Gone was the usual announcement made with great fanfare in other years.

Update On Alaska's North Slope -- August 22, 2017

While the mainstream media is focused on GOP's internecine fights, this is an example of just some of the "real" business that is going on behind the scenes. From Rigzone:

Following an executive order from U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is in the process of generating updated assessments of the oil and gas resources on Alaska’s North Slope in what could be the precursor to an exploration and development boom on federal lands that have mostly been off-limits to the industry.

The May 31 executive order has renewed a sense of hope for opening currently off-limit areas of the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska (NPRA), and opening the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), which has been tightly closed to the industry since the 1980s, to exploration.

As older oilfields such as Prudhoe Bay, the Kuparuk River and the Alpine have long since reached their production peaks, the state of Alaska has been anxiously watching the steady decline of oil through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) over the last three decades – peaking in 1988 at 2.1 million barrels of oil per day to today’s roughly 500,000 barrels.

While it has long been speculated that off-limit areas in NPRA and the 1002 Area in ANWR have the potential for major discoveries of hundreds of millions or billions of barrels of oil, decades of legislation and land management policies have kept them closed to the industry to varying degrees, said David Houseknecht, USGS senior research geologist who is overseeing the North Slope assessments, to Rigzone.

Yet recent, headline-making discoveries on the North Slope by Armstrong Oil & Gas, Inc., ConocoPhillips Alaska and Caelus Energy Alaska have sparked excitement in the Last Frontier State. All lie within a major fairway stretching from the Colville River Delta to the western coast of Smith Bay. If areas that are currently off-limits to leasing near Teshekpuk Lake in NPRA open up, that could be the catalyst to the next energy boom in Alaska, Houseknecht said.

Did President Trump need to get involved? Who cares. This is how it really happened:

Earlier this year, Murkowski introduced a bill to the House and the Senate calling for the opening of ANRW to exploration.

And then a few phone calls to the Secretary of the Interior.

The "good guys" have less than four years to get these projects moving. There's no guarantee President Trump will be re-elected. A four-year window of opportunity.

Making America great. Again.

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You're Fired

My wife and I mentioned this to each other this morning -- time to sack the 7th Fleet admiral. I guess it's finally happening.

From Navy Times:

The head of U.S. Forces Pacific is preparing to sack the head of the three-star U.S. 7th Fleet after a string of mishaps among the Japan-based ships that have rocked the Navy to its core.

Adm. Scott Swift is traveling to Japan and plans to remove Vice Adm. Joseph Aucoin for a loss of confidence in his leadership there, two U.S. officials confirmed.

The Wall Street Journal first reported the pending firing.

This Can't Be Good News -- January 4, 2016: Alaska Pipeline In Danger Of "Freezing" Up

Platts is reporting:

Trans-Alaska Pipeline System operators are taking new steps to keep North Slope crude oil warm enough to flow through the 800-mile pipeline during cold months of the Alaskan winter.

In 2011, a mid-winter disruption in operations almost resulted in oil congealing into sludge, to a point where the pipeline would be difficult to restart. Since then, operators have been adding heat during the winter by recirculating oil through pipe loops at pump stations.

In 2015 they added a plug-in heating unit at a remote gate valve in Interior Alaska, where winter temperatures drop below minus 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

The pipeline company is battling a gradual, long-term cooling of the oil temperature as production from the North Slope drops and as lower volumes reduce natural mechanisms that previously warmed the oil, such as the friction of fluids against pipe walls.

During winter, oil that now enters the pipeline at 104 degrees on the North Slope drops to 40 degrees by the time it reaches the Valdez Marine Terminal in southern Alaska.

TAPS, built in 1977, now operates at about 25% of its 2 million b/d design capacity.

Alaska Pipeline Viability -- September 29, 2015

I am posting a note here, but I follow the bigger story chronologically at this post. The AP is reporting:

Royal Dutch Shell's dry hole in the Chukchi Sea may be disappointing to shareholders, but it's potentially devastating to Alaska.

The company's decision to end oil exploration in offshore Alaska for the foreseeable future means the state must find another source to fill the 800-mile trans-Alaska pipeline and solve its economic woes, Gov. Bill Walker said.

"We need to get some oil in the pipeline, and we need to do it as quickly as possible and in the safest method possible," Walker said. He is suggesting the federal government open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to natural gas drilling.

The petroleum industry funds upward of 90 percent of state government. Declining oil production and low prices have left Alaska with a billion-dollar budget gap, and state leaders saw rays of hope in Shell's offshore prospects.

Confirmation of the estimated 15 billion barrels in the Chukchi lease area could have led to additional exploration by other leaseholders. And a transition to production — though a decade or more off — would have meant jobs, potential revenue and a source to replenish the trans-Alaska pipeline, now running less than one-quarter full.

Viability of the pipeline based on throughput. Here's a nice article suggesting there's a long way to go before Alaskans have to worry about that. The pipeline carried 2 million bopd at its max; down to around 650,000 bopd now; originally the minimum was felt to be in the 350,000 bopd range, but now folks think one could get down to as low as 100,000 bopd and the pipe throughput could still be maintained.

Another Poll -- August 31, 2015

Results of the poll in which we asked whether President Obama would show any support for Alaska's economic lifeline, it's Trans-Alaskan Pipeline. To recap, the pipeline needs at least 300K bopd to remain operational. Without any change in production on the North Slope, it is likely that production will fall below that threshold by 2024. President Obama had already opened the Arctic to drilling, but could more be done? The answer appears to be "YES." He will commit to another military icebreaker to be working the Arctic by 2020, two years earlier than expected.

The poll results:

• Yes: 5%
• No: 24%
• He will avoid the subject: 46%
• If asked, he will waffle: 24%

Updates

September 3, 2015: the EIA tweeted -- Alaska had the largest decline in natural gas and crude oil  proved reserves in 2013.

Original Post

From Seeking Alpha:

• President Obama - visiting Alaska this week - agreed earlier this month to allow Royal Dutch Shell to resume Arctic oil exploration, yet Alaska officials say it may not be enough to save the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, the state’s economic lifeline for the past 40 years.
• Volume on the pipeline, which funnels crude to Valdez in the south from Prudhoe Bay in the north, has declined along with North Slope oil production during the past three decades; flows are dropping ~5%/year and slid to 513K bbl/day in 2014 from a peak of 2M in 1988.
• Alaska projects North Slope crude production to fall to ~320K bbl/day by 2024, and officials say a drop below 300K would trigger a “fundamental change” in operations and perhaps make the pipeline unfeasible.

When it rains, it pours. This is a perfect opportunity for another poll. Will President Obama show any support for Alaska's economic lifeline, the Trans-Alaska Pipeline?

There are a lot of implications. This, I think, is the biggest one: Californians, with the exception of Hawaiians, are paying the highest price for gasoline of anyone in the United States. The high price in California is not trivial, either; the price Californians pay for gasoline is quite significant, almost twice what some are paying elsewhere in America.

California relies heavily on imported foreign oil and oil from Alaska. It obtains some oil from the Bakken but that source is problematic due to logistics. Survival of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is critical for Alaska and critical for California. It was also a technological marvel and the loss of that pipeline would speak volumes.

To remain ideologically consistent, killing the Keystone XL, requires that he also kill the TAP. It will be an interesting story to follow.

Alaska Pipeline: Updates

Updates

May 30, 2021: why President Biden approved COP's giant Willow Field in Alaska. It was all about saving the TAPS -- a national security issue. 

September 29, 2015: the original post was in response to the 2011 leak in the Alaska pipeline but discussed the very viability of that pipeline. With Shell calling it quits in the Arctic -- just a few days ago -- where they drilled was uneconomical for more drilling -- raises the specter of the very viability of the Alaska pipeline. 

Original Post

 

I'm posting updates of the Alaska pipeline situation (the 2011 BP leak) where I originally posted the information.

This has been on the news several times today on CNBC today (January 12, 2011). I think there's a bigger story than the media is reporting: if production of oil can't keep the pipeline full, the pipeline will have to be shut down. Under best scenario (which includes no new drilling which the American people / administration want) the pipeline will shut down within ten years.

Under worse situation, it could shut down within a couple of years.

And folks still wonder if North Dakota could surpass Alaska's production?

Here's the CNBC story: [comments those of the blog's author]

The four-day shutdown of the Trans Alaska Pipeline, which sent a jolt through world energy markets, pushing the price of oil up $4 a barrel in two trading days, could be a sign of things to come, according to officials

That's because the 33-year-old pipeline could outlive its usefulness, unless new sources of oil are developed in northern Alaska. [Not gonna happen under this administration.]

The flow of oil through the 800-mile pipeline was partially restored late Tuesday. Officials hope to have it fully restored in a matter of days, with another brief shutdown to install a bypass around a leak at a pumping station that led to the initial shutdown. The pipeline is now running at a rate of around 400,000 barrels per day.

But even at full strength, currently around 650,000 barrels per day, the flow is a fraction of what it once was. At its peak in the late 1980s, the pipeline carried more than 2 million barrels per day. It was designed to carry 1.5 million per day, according to Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, the consortium that owns and operates the line.

With the flow decreasing by around 5 percent a year, officials say it could soon become impractical to operate the system, both because of engineering and economics.

Alaskan Pipeline Shut Down: Leak Discovered

Link here.

The Trans Alaska Pipeline shut down on Saturday (January 8, 2011) after a leak was discovered at the intake pump station at Prudhoe Bay, constricting supply in one of the United States' key oil arteries. 

Some quick bullets:

• Operated by BP. (Yup, that's the same company that operated the well in the Gulf that blew in summer, 2010.)
• The pipeline accounts for 12 percent of US oil production.
• Ships 630,000 bbls/day.
• Unknown how long shutdown will last.
• Shipments from the terminus of the pipeline are unaffected; tankers are being loaded on schedule.
• No evidence the concrete encasement has been broached; if true, no environmental impact.

Comments:

• Price of oil will rise Monday, all things being equal.
• Direct economic impact will be minimal long term; back to normal within a month. (Didn't get reported on DrudgeReport and is not yet on Yahoo!Financial news page, January 9, 2011.)
• Indirect impact will be greater: anti-oil advocates will call for more regulation.
•  This can only be seen as more bad news for the oil industry.

[Update, January 19, 2011, Wednesday a.m.: apparently the start-up of the bypass came on line without incident and fanfare;  the target rate for today is 510,000 barrels a day. The pipeline carried 641,517 barrels a day in December. Alaska crude oil stockpiles were 583,943 barrels yesterday, after dropping as much as 83 percent after the disruption to 432,962 barrels on Jan. 15.]
[Update, January 17, 2011, Monday a.m.: supposedly the bypass has been completed; no announcement that oil has started flowing; oil dropped a bit in price but still over $91; markets closed today, Martin Luther King Day.]
[Update, January 16, 2011, Sunday a.m.: the pipeline was shut down just after midnight Saturday (that would be early morning Saturday, or early morning Sunday (unclear) -- to me, that would mean early morning Sunday)  for repairs. It is expected to remain closed for 36 hours. If so, we should see news reports on/about Tuesday, January 18, 2011, that oil is flowing once again.]
[Update, January 13, 2011: see update here.]
[Update, January 12, 2011: 400,000 bopd now coming through pipeline, but that is too little to keep the pipeline open; a very, very interesting story; I think this is a bigger story than media suggesting, and much of it due to moratorium on drilling in Alaska. No link. From CNBC. 
[Update, January 11, 2011: bypass pipeline underway. But could someone post the "real" percent of America's oil that comes through the pipeline. The first story (Sunday) said the pipeline represented 12 percent of America's production; yesterday they said 9 percent; today, the number is 15 percent. Those are not minor differences.]
[Update, January 10, 2011: pipeline shut for 3rd day; oil up 1 percent; why isn't the jump in oil price much bigger?]
[Update: 8:21 p.m. EST, Crude Soars on News of Pipeline Shutdown.]
[Update: Unrelated to spill. Price of oil could hit $110 within weeks according to OPEC official.]
[Update: Event considered "significant" by BP.]
[Update, 6:40 p.m. EST, Sunday night, January 9, 2011 -- Futures show oil up $1.32.]