Tuesday, March 3, 2026

The Suicide Drone -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50122DRONES.

Tag: Operation EPIC FURY 

Link here. 

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The New Apple Laptops -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50121APPLE.

Apple press release. 

I like the way Apple / Tim Cook are announcing the new hardware. The glitzy, staged presentations out of Cupertino were too incredibly cheesy.  

Apple laptops.

Joanne Sterne. Joanna Sterne is now on her own (Patreon), no longer working for The WSJ. 

Be sure to read the entire thread.

Quick! Name one thing costing $1,000 that is better than a MacBook Air M5!!

Starbucks: $4.00 / visit (generally one visit / day) = 20 x $4 = $80 / month. $960 / year. Wow. 

College: $50,000 per year, and they're quibbling over $1,000?

Recommendation: high school senior going off to college next fall. Save $150 / month starting now for that gift of a lifetime next fall. Six months x $150 --> $900. 

The M4 is more than adequate, but for a hundred bucks more (and will be less at Amazon in six months or sooner), splurge for your high school student. They will thank you later. LOL. 

Available for pre-order tomorrow morning; available at store / delivered to address a week from tomorrow.  

Look up chipmogging. We'll come back to that later! LOL. 

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All Three "Classes" Of US Bombers Now Involved In Operation Epic Fury -- B-2s, B-1s, B-52s -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50120EPICFURY.

Operation Epic Fury tracked at tab at the top. Link here. 

Operation Epic Fury and bomber issue tracked here.  

For the  B-52s to be there and to have already flown successful missions is truly incredible. 

Link here.  

CENTCOM. 

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Darlene Federal -- Devon Energy -- Westberg -- The Bakken -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50119B.

Well of interest:  

  • 23277, 2,000, Devon Energy, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-3H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 401K 1/16:

Recent:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202631395235721801420705206010
BAKKEN12-202585314475569401439792
BAKKEN11-20250000000
BAKKEN10-2025003190000
BAKKEN9-2025202869277363151265012299273
BAKKEN8-2025121753192228901589615750102
BAKKEN7-2025305578568376664110340378604
BAKKEN6-202530654261578161368093663059
BAKKEN5-2025306673674795454329842945232
BAKKEN4-2025307147732210277413644120638
BAKKEN3-2025317194712410931444524425179
BAKKEN2-20252878507831113825831757520685
BAKKEN1-202530928593441671959511548694522
BAKKEN12-202423765075751209548074436894342
BAKKEN11-2024301093910829180307054269910632
BAKKEN10-20243113570135851770881010777583252
BAKKEN9-20243016605165773211588169831525017
BAKKEN8-2024312516325231431581050997330931790
BAKKEN7-202410838482011404328135602722108
BAKKEN6-20240000000
BAKKEN5-20240000000
BAKKEN4-20240000000
BAKKEN3-20240000000
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-2023172460200
BAKKEN11-202327598618277292428250
BAKKEN10-202331951905443429242920

Earlier:

BAKKEN7-2017311838188676960275473278
BAKKEN6-2017301942181280364235779375
BAKKEN5-2017312281237994467826217286
BAKKEN4-20173024802449110072776648361
BAKKEN3-20172825842288156957215352162
BAKKEN2-20177000907
BAKKEN1-20174000100
BAKKEN12-20168001300
BAKKEN11-201628135416325844347414812
BAKKEN10-201631197419839286382602578
BAKKEN9-201630207022841011663163630
BAKKEN8-201631239920811177737770980

Initial: 

BAKKEN11-201330371435041128859822356363
BAKKEN10-201331413042331228840318636539
BAKKEN9-201330468246361695934735835764
BAKKEN8-201327346536731102916640155151
BAKKEN7-20133147294776164712130012130
BAKKEN6-20133057125434268713955117892167
BAKKEN5-2013304622488719851040153225079
BAKKEN4-20133073617008264017087129984089
BAKKEN3-201331974510022334521561157745786
BAKKEN2-2013281145811268341219997135006497
BAKKEN1-20132315176148967680245411333011211
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New Bakken Well With Initial Production Of 57K In First Full Month -- Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Locator: 50118B.

Chevron - Iraq, Simon Watkins, link here. 

Clinton - Epstein video: severe shaking. Link here. Says Parkinson's was consideration but that was not correct. I agree. What we're seeing is "essential tremor," a fairly common condition seen in "the elderly." The tremors may be a consistent feature of the individual but they are definitely worsened by stress.

 Keystone XL: certainly would be nice to have that pipeline now. Thank you Ms Clinton, et al.  

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $74.56.

Active rigs: 25. 

No new permits.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed, link here:

  • 39742, 2,798, Devon Energy/Grayson Mill, Darlene 13-24F 5 TFH, McKenzie County; 1280-acre spacing; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2026311404614136245826945268193911
BAKKEN12-2025312047720420285738951388275820
BAKKEN11-20252619770198412611457392556721429
BAKKEN10-20253156728565925996316171314996211751
BAKKEN9-20257158971570418917457102591519795

Well of interest, link here:

Well of interest:  

  • 23277, 2,000, Devon Energy, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-3H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 401K 1/16:
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AI Job Displacement -- March 3, 2026

 Locator: 50117AI.

Tag: jobs unemployment AI displacement 

Illegal immigrant migration into the US under Biden, three years: at the southern border, at least 4 million. That number would have continued to increase had the borders not been secured. 

Number of people displaced by AI based on early 2026 data, see below: 200,000 to 300,000. This number will also increase over time, but the majority of those folks -- perhaps "all" those folks will find work elsewhere.

The important word to watch for when reading articles on jobs and AI: displacement.  

Re-posting:

Locator: 50094AI.

Tag: unauthorized immigrant population illegal immigrants worker displacement AI job displacement 

It gets tedious.

The number one fear that folks have about AI: job / worker displacement.

"No one talked about job / worker displacement under the Biden administration. 

Link here. 

The denominator: unauthorized immigrant population, trend and actual numbers, in the four years of the Biden administration:


 

The numerator, AI displacement: 

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LDC Update -- March 3, 2026

Scorecard: 

Map:

  • Data Center Map, link here, March 3, 2026: the map is interactive; 4,036 LDCs in the US. 

March 3, 2026: currently the US has 4,036 large data centers. Compare to 4010, February 17, 2026. 

The US accounts for 40 - 45% of all LDCs in the world. The US lead is staggering. It is often reported that the US has more LDCs than the next 10 to 14 countries combined.  

  • Virginia: 570 -- no  change from February 17, 2026.
  • Texas: 408, up from 406
  • California: 288 -- no  change from February 17, 2026. 
  • Illinois: 210 -- no  change from February 17, 2026.
  • Georgia: 207 -- no  change from February 17, 2026.
  • Georgia: 207 
  • Ohio: 195 -- no  change from February 17, 2026. 
  • Arizona: 162 
  • New York: 134 -- no  change from February 17, 2026.
  • Oregon: 123 
  • Washington State: 108 
  • Florida: 107  

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Previously Posted

Locator: 50046LDCS.
Locator: 50046TEXAS.

Link here. 

The bigger story: how far California is falling behind. California should have the entire market: 

  • west coast: British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, northwestern Mexico
  • far west: Idaho, Utah, Arizona
  • central west: Montana, Wyoming, Colorado

See LDC map here. 

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The X-Files -- March 3, 2026

 Locator: 50116ARCHIVES. 

I thought this was going to be a "throw-away" blog and the first news item on my x feed today: 

AWS: will acquire George Washington University's Virginia Science and Technology Campus i Ashburh, Virginia, for under $500 million. Seems like a huge bargain. Website: 


 This seems to be a better deal than buying The Washington Post:


Mideast food supply: UAE -- threats to food security are a "red line." Says country has sufficient reserves to four four to six months. It's certainly become clearer to Iran's neighbor that Iran is no friend.

US citizens in Israel: US warns it's currently unable to directly assist Americans in leaving Israel. It seems this war has suddenly escalated. I honestly did not see this coming; imagine Iran with nuclear missiles.

Gold: gold prices slide down as war ratchets up. Interesting.

Regional war: Saudi Arabia says a number of Iranian attacks came from Iraq. Mobile launchers?

Strait of Hormuz: Saudi Arabia says its crude oil must now be loaded from terminal on the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia: at some point, Saudi may be forced to allow B-52s and other US a/c to stage out of their country. Drone attack on Riyadh may be precipitating event which has occurred. Currently, Saudi does not allow a/c used in Operation Epic Fury to stage out of their country. Saudi Arabia communicated that to Iran well before Operation Epic Fury. 

Dhahran: Aramco's HQ located here; under imminent attack. US citizens told not to go to embassy there. 

Turkey: Kirkuk crude oil loadings from Turkey's Ceyhan port stopped earlier today.

SPR (US) reserve: was I wrong all these years?

Surge: if global traders now state that if US cannot guarantee that Strait of Hormuz will remain open, the price of oil will easily go to $100. I didn't believe that 48 hours ago, but ....

India: 25 days of crude oil and refined oil stocks. Folks, that's not much.

Target: weapons depot said to be targeted near Khojir, east of Tehran. My hunch is that first couple of days of war concentrated on leadership, major military targets, missile launchers. As that phase slows, resources will be available to target weapons depots. One can assume allies are quickly learning to adjust to Iran's military supply chain. 

Nvidia: Morgan Stanley has reinstated Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick: overweight and raise price target to $260.

In Texas, the headwinds for Target: Amazon, Walmart, HEB. 

TGT: do you "believe" the CEO? 

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Apparently His Letter Missed The Mark -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50115BRK.

See this post. Four goodwill impairments (four failed acquisitions), including Pilot. 

The good news: the letter is history. We now move on. 

Today, the ticker:

One day, yesterday:

Five days: 

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WTI: Shortly Before Market Open -- CVX -- LNG -- Proxies For The War -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50114WTI.

Oil prices surge: link here. 

WTI is a great proxy for "how the war is going."

Earlier this morning:

WTI: up 8% overnight; up $5.54 overnight; trading at $76.77;

Now, 7:20 a.m. CT: 

Up 6.11% (better than the 8% earlier); up $4.35; trading at $75. 58. 

 
Stunning: 

***********************
From Flathead Lake 

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The Relationship Between Apple And Google Continues To Delight -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50113APPLE.

Apple: would like to see Google run Siri on Google's servers. Link here.

Also, link here: 

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Car Thefts -- The Dots Are Easy To Connect -- Auto Insurance -- Auto Repair Costs -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50112AUTOREPAIRTHEFT.

Tag: auto repair theft immigration illegal 


The chatbot appears to link the thefts to "Covid." Interesting.

In fact, practically everything I read with regard to the Biden administration's disastrous four years is referred to as "post-Covid," completely failing to say most (all?) of this was due to the illegal immigration surge. 

Fails to mention the the national car theft rate that surged in 2024 had anything to do with the 40% increase in the number of illegal immigrants that occurred in 2021 - 2024, during the Biden administration when the southern borders were, for all practical purposes, wide open. 

Link here. 

Unauthorized immigrant population, trend and actual numbers, in the four years of the Biden administration:


 

In fact, I can pretty much guess that all academic studies that study the Biden presidency will call it the "post-Covid" economy and completely fail to mention the effect illegal immigration had on those four years.

Back to car thefts:  


Car thefts along US border with Mexico: analysis with map. Link here.

Car thefts and auto insurance refunds:


What is the reason for "cooling" cost of auto repairs? This is absolutely fascinating:

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Pemex Losses -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50111PEMEX.

From yesterday, RBN Energy had huge update with regard to Mexico's refined products:

RBN Energy:  for Gulf Coast refined products, it's down to Mexico by truck, rail, ship, and pipe. Link here. Archived.

U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to Mexico have been mostly rising the past 15 years as Mexican demand for refined products stabilized, the utilization of south-of-the-border refineries sagged, Covid hit and, most recently, Pemex — the state-owned oil and gas company — started bringing its new Dos Bocas refinery online. Over that same decade and a half, the Mexican government’s policy on the import-related roles of Pemex and private companies has zigged and zagged, complicating and ultimately slowing efforts to develop new midstream infrastructure. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review Mexico’s refined product demand, production and imports from the U.S. — and discuss what likely lies ahead.

Mexico is obviously a key trading partner in general, and has been the #1 source of total U.S. imports since 2023 (when it overtook China for that top spot) and in 2025 it also became the #1 recipient of total U.S. exports, ending (at least for now) Canada’s third-of-a-century run at the top of that heap. It will come as no surprise to our readers that energy — or more specifically, crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — is a major factor in all that U.S.-Mexico trade. Mexico still is shipping significant volumes of heavy crude to Gulf Coast refineries and the U.S. every day is moving billions of cubic feet of natural gas and hundreds of thousands of barrels of refined products south of the border — Mexico is by far the #1 destination for those products.

We recently examined U.S.-to-Mexico natural gas exports (and the role of non-state pipeline companies) in our three-part blog series, Private Dancers. Today, we shift our attention to refined products. We’ll begin with a big-picture look at Mexico’s demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel; the highly variable output of Pemex’s refineries over the years; and the pace of Mexico’s refined product imports from the U.S. After that, we’ll discuss how gasoline, diesel and jet fuel make their way from Gulf Coast refineries to the Mexican market.

Combined demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel in Mexico rose by almost half in the first decade of the 21st century — from about 900 Mb/d in 2000 to 1.3 MMb/d in 2010 — due to a combination of population and economic gains. Demand growth has moderated since then, averaging 1.3 MMb/d in 2015 and just under 1.4 MMb/d in 2024 and 2025. (There was a sizable dip in 2020 — to just 1.1 MMb/d — due to Covid.) Over the same 2015-25 period, Mexican demand for gasoline (blue layer in Figure 1 below) increased from 807 Mb/d to 835 Mb/d, while diesel demand (green layer) grew from 421 Mb/d to 427 Mb/d and jet fuel demand (yellow layer) rose by one-third, from 74 Mb/d to 101 Mb/d.

Pemex' latest earnings: eleven years of huge debts? Despite massive infusions of cash from the government?



The chatbot failed to provide the amount of financial support the Mexican government provided Pemex over the past year (2025). Here's that amount from the same chatbot when asked a second time:

  • based on 2025 financial filings the Mexican government provided $22 billion to Pemex in 2025;
  • thanks to this intervention, Pemex reduced its financial debt from $97.6 billion at the end of 2024 to $85.2 billion at the end of 2024
    • end of 2024, debt: $97.2 billion
    • Mexican government provided $22 billion in financial "aid" to Pemex in 2025
      • 97.2 - 22 = $75.2
    • Pemex reported a debt of $85.2 billion at end of 2025
  • Total value of government support, debt buybacks, and supplier financing efforts exceeded $40 billion in 2025.
  • $97.2 billion - $40 billion = debt of $57.2 billion (anticipated, all things being equal)
  • instead: debt of $85.2 billion at end of 2025. 

The recent surge in oil prices may be a godsend for Pemex.

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Tuesday -- March 3, 2026

Locator: 50110B.

Mideast war: all of a sudden, it's getting serious

  • must read WSJ assessment: "Gulf states in race against time to repel Iran's onslaught." Link here.
    • bottom line: some suggest the gulf states will run out of air-defense interceptors before Iran runs out of missiles and drones
    • at end of day won't change ultimate outcome of the war, but will likely result in huge number of civilian casualties if analysis proves to be correct 
  • QatarEnergy halts production of LNG at two sites; Iranians drone; takes one-fifth of global LNG export capacity offline in a single geopolitical event

Observation: if Iran can sustain this US-Israeli onslaught with relatively unsophisticated drones and ballistic missiles, imagine an Iran with nuclear ballistic missiles. Implications are immense. 

Qatar: 

  • then we have an excellent article from  Simon Watkins on the huge strategic shift to global LNG since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine; 
    • excellent article as always from Watkins; link here. 
  • Qatar is set to drive at least 40% of global LNG supply growth by 2029, expanding output from 77 mtpa to 142 mtpa.
  • wow 77 to 142 --> an 84% increase in three years 

Diego Garcia: it's much worse than we thought. The Brits will soon return the archipelago to Mauritius, and thus "control" to China. This could be stopped, but it's looking exceedingly less likely.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: up 8% overnight; up $5.54 overnight; trading at $76.77. Midday: $75.09. 

New wells reporting:  

Wednesday, March 4, 2026: 7 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 113 for the year,

  • 41601, conf, BR, Sivertson 6D, 
  • 41373, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-LW-155-94-0618H-1, 

Tuesday, March 3, 2026: 5 for the month, 111 for the quarter, 111 for the year,

  • None.

RBN Energy: the expanding role of natural gas storage in east Texas and west Louisiana. Link here. Archived. 

New and expanded natural gas storage facilities near the Texas/Louisiana border are coming online and being planned, mostly in response to the ongoing buildout of LNG export capacity along the Gulf Coast and new gas pipelines to those terminals. In today’s RBN blog — the second in a series — we continue our look at existing and planned storage capacity between the Haynesville and Western Haynesville gas production areas and the LNG export meccas along the Sabine-Neches and Calcasieu ship channels, as well as storage near the Katy, TX, gas hub.

As we said in Part 1, the infrastructure buildout along the border between the Lone Star and Bayou states is well underway. Planned liquefaction trains there with a combined capacity of 75 MMtpa (10 Bcf/d) have reached a final investment decision (FID), are under construction and will be starting up between now and 2031. These new LNG export facilities (blue-striped diamonds in Figure 1 below) will join three existing terminals (green diamonds) in the area — Sabine Pass LNG, Cameron LNG and Calcasieu Pass — that together have nearly 53 MMtpa (7 Bcf/d) of capacity. That means that within five years or so, terminals along the Sabine-Neches and Calcasieu waterways will receive as much as 17 Bcf/d of natural gas.

This massive demand center is fed by pipelines delivering gas from several production areas, including the Permian, the Eagle Ford and the far-away Marcellus/Utica. But as LNG export demand ramps up, increasing volumes will come from the relatively close-by Haynesville (light-gray-shaded area in Figure 1 below) and, in all likelihood, from the emerging Western Haynesville, which is centered in East Texas’s Freestone, Leon, Limestone and Robertson counties (outlined in red).

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