Friday, July 3, 2026

Cocktail Chatter -- But You Would Need Paper And A Pen -- Singapore -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51109SINGAPORE.

This curve will invert under an AOC presidency.
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META'S Third Generation MTIA AI Chips -- This Is Huge -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51108META.

Tag: Broadcom. 

Note META'S third generation MTIA AI chips. Also note the long term relationship between META and Broadcom. 

"You can howl at the wind, but AI is here to stay." 

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Perhaps A Reader Might Know More About These Wells -- Update On Continental Resources Brakken Wells In Catwalk -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51107BRAKKEN.

This regards the four CLR Brakken wells in Catwalk, #40056 - #40059, inclusive.

There has been no change in their status since March, 2026, when they came off the confidential list. 

The NDIC GIS map and the scout tickets / production history show these four wells on DRL status and no production data. 

They were apparently drilled to depth last autumn, 2025, and put on the confidential list at that time. They were  taken off the confidential list in March, 2026. However, no production from any of these four wells has been reported. 

Generally speaking, this suggests to me these wells are waiting to completed (fracked), or recently fracked, and production data not yet reported.

When one sees that -- or thinks that -- the next thing to do is check neighboring wells. The best well to check is the original Brakken well, #19008:

  • 19008, 2,804, Devon Energy, Brakken 30-31 1-H, Catwalk, t12/10; cum 314K 1/25. This well was taken off line January, 2025, based on data below and remains offline. This suggests that there is activity in the area and the well remains off line. Activity in the area suggest current or recent fracking.  

Someone in the field may know what's going on, but it appears the wells are soon to be fracked or, if already fracked, we're waiting for the initial production numbers to be reported.  

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20260000000
BAKKEN4-20260000000
BAKKEN3-20260000000
BAKKEN2-20260000000
BAKKEN1-20260000000
BAKKEN12-20250000000
BAKKEN11-2025127070400
BAKKEN10-20250000000
BAKKEN9-20251182450000
BAKKEN8-20250000000
BAKKEN7-20250000000
BAKKEN6-20250000000
BAKKEN5-20250000000
BAKKEN4-20250000000
BAKKEN3-20250000000
BAKKEN2-20250000000
BAKKEN1-2025202922283666350555
BAKKEN12-2024274034466789150807
BAKKEN11-202425486670708115501071
BAKKEN10-202424544444723123911238
BAKKEN9-20242768465911221743521691
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Musk Takes Space Away From NASA; Now, Bezos Overtakes The US Postal Service -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51106AMAZON.

The secret? Aviator glasses. 

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Heat Wave On The East Coast -- In NY - NJ - VA Area -- Upwards Of $2,500 / MWh -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51105ISONE.  

Tag: heat wave 

Link here. 

Dinnertime in New England. Heat wave. Trending toward $500 / MWh:

And PJM: upwards of $2,500 / MWh. 

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High Band Memory Chips: Not Just A Shortage Of Factories (FABS) But Also A Shortage Of Feedstock -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51104LDCS.  

UPDATES

July 3, 2026: we now have reports that MU margins for memory chips are coming in at 90%. That seems notable.

July 3, 2026: speaking of a shortage of fabs --> META / Samsung Foundry talk -- third generation MTIA AI chips. See more on this development at this post.

ORIGINAL POST

Query: the memory chip companies in South Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix) are touting huge factory build outs. What is Micron doing?

Reply:


Query:

When do you think the memory chip shortage will turn the corner. Everything I read suggests it won't be until 2028. There's a lot of CAPEX now being spent on building fabs -- starting late 2025 and these factories likely to start production in 2027 but customers won't see these new chips until 2028. Your timeline?

Reply:

I see this as good-to-great news for investors (and those employed to build these factories) but not good for consumers in the short term. 
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Chip Companies Fortunes Fall In 2Q26; Palantir Stock Jumps -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51103AI.  

Mixed story on AI:

  • AI: 
    • lots of NIMBY talk;
    • infrastructure supply-chain shortages: chips, energy 
    • software companies took a big hit earlier in the year
    • more recently, chip-making companies are taking a hit
  • but Palantir: stock jumps; "profits have soared"; link here.
    • huge gain in share price past two days after falling significantly
      • Palantir unveiled a new AI partnership with Nvidia
      • DA Davidson analyst upgrades stock to a buy rating; raised target to $175
      • currently trading at $130
      • "growing twice as fast as any of its competitors": Snowflake, Shopfiy, Datadog, CrowdStrike
  • AI is very much still in high growth, high demand
    • but elements of the buildout remind me of the Bakken when it went from boom to steady-state (maintenance) stage 
    • Palantir's 5-year price curve resembles the standard "S-curve" 
    • breakout/surge began late 2024 / early 2025
    • peaked, overshot, and then moved back down  

**********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.  
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    Mixed Story On EV Sales In US: Tesla With Blowout Quarter; Ford Sales Decline 10% Overall Due To 40% Fall In EV Sales -- July 3, 2026

    Locator: 51102EVS.  

    Note: I have no particular interest in EVs; simply a spectator; I find the whole sector fascinating -- it seems so variable among companies. 

     Updates

    Comments: I came back to this blog very soon after posting it. I was trying to figure out what makes "this" subject so fascinating. For me, this is what makes this subject so interesting: some CEOs are sold on EVs, even though the EV sector is not doing particularly well. Why? 

    Sold on EVs: 

    • Jim Farley (Ford Co): despite still losing huge amounts of money on EVs;
    • Musk: incredibly challenging environment the past two years, but had a blowout 2Q26.

    This reminded me of an article recently seen: a "perfect storm" points to a much smaller US auto market.

    I've just spent an hour discussing this with Gemini. 

    Bottom line: The idea that the U.S. would hit a 50% or 100% pure EV adoption rate by 2030 is dead. Because of the hybrid plateau and the garage divide, the true tipping point for dominant EV adoption in the U.S. has likely shifted to 2040 or beyond.

    Likely: "likely" means this could be "worse" than 2040.  

    If so, then the question becomes, how do auto companies reinvent themselves or market themselves to stay relevant for the next fifteen years. 

    Someone will figure this out. This will be fascinating to watch.

    But this is the bigger question and perhaps the most important question: why did Tesla have a blowout 2Q26? Tesla has a more global presence and they did outstanding in Europe. Europe did the heavy lifting. What we're seeing in the US is not necessarily giving us a good picture of the EV timeline worldwide.

    Original Post 

    Very mixed story on EV sales in the US in most recent quarter. 

    • Ford EV sales plummet -- "as EV demand tumbled"
    • GM's EV sales also tumbled
    • Tesla: blowout deliveries -- suggesting EV demand is growing 

    Ford: link here. Overall, all sales -- 10% drop in 2Q26 sales due to significant drop in EV sales

    • 2Q26:"waning EV demand continued to hit results";
      • Ford EV sales fell 41% in 2Q26 to 9,746
        • Mustang Mach-E off 31%
        • F-150 Lightning down almost 60% (actual: 58.6%) --
          • the F-150 Lightning has been discontinued
    • hybrids slid 20%: noteworthy given gains seen by direct rivals Honda, Toyota
    • 1H26: Ford's EV sales are down almost 60% (actual 57.4%)
    • F-Series (non -EV): 
      • continued sales weakness
      • Ford says due to continued fallout from last year's aluminum shortage  

    GM: EV sales tumbled, also -- 

    • a common theme in the US after expiration of the federal EV tax credit
      • that tax credit ended 3Q25 

    Tesla:

    • 25% y/y increase in deliveries -- 480,126 EVs
    • easily surpassed Wall Street expectations -- 406,000 - 420,000 units
    • blowout performance: company's first y/y delivery growth after two consecutive years of annual declines

    **********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.  
    • Posted by at
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