Patrick Kennedy: Got Snow? Yup, Lots Of It -- December 3, 2022

Decades after saying his grandchildren would never see snow, NOAA is now reporting record amounts of snow cover in the northern hemisphere -- the most snow cover in fifty-six years. [Update: most likely, the original quote came from RFK, Jr, but it's now impossible to find the original quote on the internet. The quote was made in November, 2008. Patrick was the Kennedy that arranged for inexpensive / free oil from Venezuela (Citgo; Chavez) for those in need in Massachusetts. That initiative lasted all of a couple of years.]

For the archives. I've long lost interest in the subject. 

The Bakken Economy -- December 3, 2022

Native American casinos in North Dakota, link here:

• governor signs bill lowering the age from 21 to 19 for gambling in ND casinos
• Native Americans had asked for additional relief with state-wide electronic gambling
• state constitution does not allow that
• casinos significantly and negatively impacted by state-wide pull-tabs
• casinos have been hurt by the explosion of Las Vegas-style pull tab machines that were legalized in 2017 to benefit charities. North Dakotans poured almost $1.75 billion into the machines in fiscal 2022.  

Alexander, ND:

The Alexander Public School District plans to hold a special election January 17, 2023, asking voters to approve a $15.5 million bond issue to finance construction of additional classrooms, expand the cafeteria and front office space, add additional working space for staff, and a conference room.

Enrollment in the district has surged in recent years with 49 additional students this fall for a total of 306 in grades K-12, representing a 19 percent increase from the 2021-22 school year.

If approved, the project would be the third facility expansion for the district, which 10 years ago had just 122 students. A home economics area was added in 2016, and a vocational ag building was added to the campus in 2020.

Back-of-the-envelope:

• K - 12: thirteen classrooms
• 257 / 13 = 20 students / classroom
• 306 / 13 = 24 students / classroom
• $15.5 million / 49 students: $315,000 per additional student
• but, one assumes the expansion anticipates further enrollment growth

I guess we won't need that Montana coal-generated electricity (the North Plains Connector):

The North Dakota Public Service Commission voted 2-1 this week to approve a $390 million wind farm proposed near Wishek, a decision with which Commissioner Randy Christmann strongly disagreed. 

The project known as Badger Wind is to be built in Logan and McIntosh counties, consisting of 74 turbines with 250 megawatts of generating capacity.

Christmann objected to the project, pointing out that it would be located in one of the most congested areas of the electric grid, displacing power generated by baseload coal plants.

He said allowing more intermittent generation to displace 24/7 sources of electricity will ultimately make the grid less reliable.

Savings -- December 3, 2022

Previously posted, the area under the curve:

The area under the curve:

Now today: be sure to read the thread -- mostly snarky comments, but some folks get it --

Ports-To-Plains Corridor -- Right Through West Texas To Denver -- December 3, 2022

Link here. 

Link here. 

The Biden infrastructure bill.

Though the $1 trillion infrastructure law was signed November 15, the bulk of the money had been locked up awaiting congressional approval of a 2022 fiscal year spending bill.

That changed this month when the House and Senate finally passed an appropriations bill for the remainder of the fiscal year. The move ends five months of passing last-minute, stop-gap measures to keep the federal government from shutting down.

A continuing resolution to keep the government funded was set to expire March 15, but President Joe Biden signed the new spending legislation the same day.

The appropriations bill releases a 43% increase in funding over 2021 for federal highway programs through September 30, for a total of $69.4 billion, according to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association.

Public transportation programs will get a 61% increase for a total of $20.4 billion this year.

I-27, this is amazing: 

The recently signed $1.5 trillion federal appropriations for 2022 includes the designation of a future Interstate 27 from Texas to New Mexico.

The Ports-to-Plains Corridor, as it is called, is recognized from Laredo, Texas, to Raton, New Mexico, in the legislation signed by President Joe Biden on March 15, 2022. The corridor extends down to the Mexican border.

The ultimate plan for the corridor is to extend to the Canadian border in future phases, beyond the current designation.

The interstate designation is the first step toward creating the interstate as a four-lane, divided federal highway. The highway would stretch out 963 miles in west and south Texas using existing highways along the way that would be upgraded to interstate standards or new interstate sections developed, according to the Texas Department of Transportation. It would eventually extend the 124 miles of I-27 completed in 1992.

The corridor also includes sections of I-20, I-35, U.S. 83, U.S. 277, U.S. 287, State Highway 158 and State Highway 349. 

Upgrading the entire corridor would cost $23.5 billion, according to a TxDOT feasibility study in 2020.

Ports-to-Plains:

• I won't see it in my life time, but the best route to take this corridor to Canada would take it through Williston, ND, and the Bakken
• most of that route is already interstate
• from Miles City, MT, to Glendive, MT: I-94, west of Dickinson
• then, the only route takes the corridor through Williston, ND, and the Bakken

Whatever Happened To Carbo Ceramics? December 3, 2022

Link here.

Generational Salaries -- December 3, 2022

Updates

Later, 9:55 p.m. CT this is quite coincidental. Less than an hour posting the original note below, this popped up in my twitter feed:

Original Post

Before we post the links, seniors:

• first generation to inherit money from their parents
• to date, the greatest transfer of generational wealth
  
• housing, rear-view mirror
• high cost durables: rear-view mirror
  
• automobiles: rear-view mirror
• family (supporting children): rear-view mirror
• food: expenses way down
• college: paid
  
• healthcare: almost free (Medicare)
• contributions to IRAs: rear-view mirror 
• retirement: social security, pensions, IRAs

Now the links and comments. Earlier this year, Gallup had Generation Z ending in 2004; now wiki suggests it is 2012.

Necessary salaries as seen by the different generations, link here:

Wiki, definitions: note -- Generation Z has changed, now "ends" in 2012.

From the blog, December 7, 2018:

April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations:

• generation Z (born 1997 - 2004): 18 - 25 years old
• millennials (born 1981 - 1996): 26 - 41 years old
• generation X (born 1965 - 1980): 42 - 57 years old
• baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964): 58 - 76 years old
• traditionalists (born before 1946): over 76 years old

March 2, 2019: two "wings" of Millennials -- generation Y (1981 - 1991) and generation Z (1991 - 2001). Broad definition of "millennials": those reaching adulthood in the early 21st century. That's a very, very wide range. That would almost include some 30-ish year-old parents with teenage millennials -- in other words, millennials raising millennials. 

Comment:

• is it safe to say that early Gen Xers have more in common with their parents (Baby Boomers) and "dread" being mis-identified as a "millennial."

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- December 3, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

"New-money allocation: 30-year horizon.

• first and third week of every month
• dividend-paying
• allocation
• 40%: Buffett-like, blue chip, DE, CAT
  
• 25%: beaten down infrastructure (mostly semiconductors; copper)
• 20%: energy (mostly oil)
• 10%: mRNA (mostly Big Pharma)
• 5%: Daimler Truck Group
  

Both ENB and MRK announced dividend increases this past week.

Enbridge:

The leading midstream energy player projects earnings before interest, income taxes and depreciation  for next year in the band of C$15.9 billion to C$16.5 billion. This reflects an improvement from C$15.0 billion to C$15.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA this year. 

For next year, ENB projects distributable cash flow per share in the band of $5.25 to $5.65. This is also depicting the picture of improvement from this year’s DCF of $5.20 to $5.50.

Along with the financial guidance, Enbridge announced the increase of its annualized common share dividend to C$3.55 per share from C$3.44.

Merck:

****************************
TSM 

Link here.

***********************
Read The Small Print; Very Interesting

Go woke, go broke

The announcement Tuesday, June 21, 2022, comes a decade after Kellogg’s $2.7 billion purchase of Pringles, which signaled the company’s shift to focusing on the global snacks business with people increasingly eating more often between meals. 

Kellogg, along with rivals like Frito-Lay-owner PepsiCo and Oreo-cookie owner Mondelez , have leaned into the trend by introducing more snacks and snapping up smaller brands.

On Monday, Mondelez said it is acquiring Clif Bar for $2.9 billion.

Cereal sales, by contrast, have stagnated in the U.S. as people eat on the go and reach for a greater variety of options in the morning.

Brands including Special K, Froot Loops and Rice Krispies had for decades been a foundation of Kellogg, but are no longer seen as key growth drivers for the company.

The pandemic briefly revived the cereal category as more consumers ate breakfast at home, but Kellogg expects flat revenue growth for its North American cereal business in the future. 

Even before the deal was announced, we learn that Kellogg was considering selling its "plant-based business." Would this be "Beyon-Meat-like" companies/products? If so, this goes under the go woke, go broke category.

CEO Steve Cahillane said all three businesses have “significant” standalone potential, although the company is exploring alternatives including a potential sale for its plant-based business.

Note, December 3, 2022:

The Music Streaming Wars -- December 3, 2022

Investors.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

The Transcript. 

Gene Ng.

Apple free cash flow. 

Folks Don't Seem To Understand -- Apple Is At An Existential Fork In The Road -- December 3, 2022

Is this how it ends?

"Everybody" is telling Apple, Inc. / Tim Cook to exit China.

From The WSJ:

In recent weeks, Apple Inc. has accelerated plans to shift some of its production outside China, long the dominant country in the supply chain that built the world’s most valuable company. Apple is telling suppliers to plan more actively for assembling Apple products elsewhere in Asia, particularly India and Vietnam and looking to reduce dependence on Taiwanese assemblers led by FoxconTechnology Group.

Turmoil at a place called iPhone City helped propel Apple’s shift. At the giant city-within-a-city in Zhengzhou, China, as many as 300,000 workers work at a factory run by Foxconn to make iPhones and other Apple products. At one point, it alone made about 85% of the Pro lineup of iPhones, according to market-research firm Counterpoint Research. 

Yeah, that's what I thought.  

Let's put that in red bold.

• "... as many as 300,000 workers work at a factory run by Foxconn to make iPhones and other Apple products."

Name one city in North America that could put 300,000 workers in one location "overnight." 

*********************
From Peter Zeihan

Link here.

Only FoxBusiness is reporting the story (Peter Zeihan only comments on it).

World Soccer: The Netherlands Defeats USA -- 3 - 1 -- The Netherlands Advances -- US Out -- December 3, 2022