The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 12/12/21

Sunday, December 12, 2021

The WPX Rubia And Topaz Wells Have Been Fracked; Parent Well Returned To Production -- December 12, 2021

This page won't be updated. These wells are tracked here.

First, the parent well, this well was taken off line 5/19, more than two years ago; daughter wells were recently fracked and this parent well was returned to production, 10/21;

20033, IA/144, WPX, Rubia 16-24H, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, one section spacing, t11/11; cum 264K 5/19; remains off line 1/21; best month, 16K; was taken off line 5/19; has just returned to production, 10/20; cum 266K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1600	1393	971	3469	3112
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	19	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0

This was one of several daughter wells recently fracked:

37320, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ, Mandaree, wow, fast frack, 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and, a small frack, 5.1million gallons of water, 83% water by mass; t--; cum 28K over 12 days; cum 145K 1/20; cum 314K 10/21;

Again, look at full production profile. Again, this is a phenomenal well, and is not atypical for what I am now seeing in the Bakken. Full production profiile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	10873	10935	10494	35990	35830	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	12261	12272	12082	38434	38279	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	12322	12422	10789	33113	32968	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	16702	16662	13776	49843	49683	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	17368	17325	13672	40099	38088	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	24174	24152	17040	51311	48564	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	28617	28560	19354	50437	47225	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	30866	30870	23536	42115	38652	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	21	15871	15759	13533	17975	16187	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	27027	26989	24309	32030	28980	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	29	42536	42555	34409	50108	38798	6609
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	47068	47106	40062	55446	24849	25410
BAKKEN	10-2020	12	28368	28182	15663	33417	8573	21749

The CLR Pasadena Federal Wells Updated -- December 12, 2021

The CLR Pasadena Federal wells are tracked here.

Permits of three wells were canceled a while back but surprisingly these permits were renewed and are now producing oil; see below.

The wells that were taken off line while the wells below were fracked, are all back on line. See the linked site.

The well:

36580, PNC/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL, Banks, 33-053-09093, noted 7/21; permit canceled 7/21, but renewed and is now producing:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	34229	70634
9-2021	27859	54724
8-2021	1152	0

36581, PNC/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1, Banks, 33-053-09094, noted 7/21; permit canceled 7/21, but renewed and is now producing:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	18952	38012
9-2021	17939	33908
8-2021	460	0

36582, drl/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11H, Banks, noted 7/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	29915	67859
9-2021	25592	51767
8-2021	239	0

Rigs Don't Matter -- Finally, After A Decade Of Pointing This Out, Someone Is Now Tracking Frack Spreads Vs Production -- December 12, 2021

Link here.

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There's Not Enough Oil

Doomberg, "the gold rush."

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Nor Are There Enough Chopsticks

I can't make this stuff up.

My wife and I took Sophia to her favorite sushi restaurant last night. Her parents were going to an "office" Christmas party. Sophia's favorite sushi restaurant is a very, very high end restaurant (for us) but it's literally out our back door -- we can walk to it.

It's a wonderful Japanese restaurant. Without tip, for the three of us, the dinner came to $85, almost on the nose. Before this "transitory inflation" the meal for the three of us might have run $65, although we had not been there in such a long time it's hard to tell.

May and Sophia had only water. I had an incredibly good drink -- the drinks were not priced on the menu, so I assumed my drink would have been in the $15 range. I was surprised to see it was $9.00. Generally speaking, $8.00 is the going price for drinks for restaurants we visit (which is now very, very rarely), so $9.00 was a pleasant surprise.

One could tell the restaurant was slightly understaffed but not by much.

The restaurant has, of course, nice, one-time use chopsticks. Fancy but not incredibly fancy.

I never, never, never eat sushi or any Japanese meal without chopsticks. They did not give us chopsticks, just a fork.

We asked for chopsticks; normally the server carries dozens in their apron pockets. Our server did not. She went back to get us three pair. When she returned with the chopsticks, she explained that there was a shortage of chopsticks -- I kid you not.

Knowing that Sophia would either not use her chopsticks or could share mine if needed, we offered to give back one of our three pair of chopsticks. The server was very grateful and took the chopsticks back.

A shortage of chopsticks. That cargo ship must still be anchored off the coast of southern California.

Which reminds me: my wife and I have any number of really, really nice chopsticks, more decorative than functional. But from now on, I'm going to carry several pair of chopsticks when we go out to eat. I'll just keep them in the car. In fact, I might also bring our decorative soup bowls.

Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto

Isn't this something? Even without knowing the words, one just knows this is an incredibly sad song.

It begins:

I look up when I walk
So that the tears won’t fall.
Remembering those happy spring days,
But tonight I am all alone.

Sunday Night Notes -- December 12, 2021

Re-posting: earlier I wrote

I haven't been following the NFL very closely this year except for a few teams.
It looks like it's going to become a very, very exciting season. With Tom Brady moving from New England, and Dak Prescott back on the field and the Chiefs re-gaining their footing, we're going to have some exciting playoff matches.
Instead of one dominant team this year, we're going to have several -- maybe five -- dominant teams.
My hunch: the NFL is going to set some all-time rating records.

Now, later: it never should have gotten to overtime, but Tom Brady is absolutely incredible. The Buccaneers win in overtime with an incredible, soft pass for the winning touchdown. This is Brady's 700th career touchdown. Needs to be fact-checked. See list here.

Original Post

Sunday night trading:

WTI: trending... up. Up almost a percent; trading over $72.
US equity markets: in the green, albeit not by much.

Saudi Arabia, 2022 budget outlook:

budget: spend of 955 billion riyals, a cut of 6% year/year (2022/2021)
anticipate revenues of 1.045 trillion riyals
huge cuts in spending
huge cut in military spending; the military conflict with neighboring Yemen has started to wane.
basing budget on $50 - $55 oil
expects to see budget surplus in 2022 after years of deficit (since 2014, at least)

Covid-19: two weeks Colorado was the poster child for Covid-19 out of control. Today, not only has the number of cases peaked, and now starting to recede, but deaths became a non-issue. Link here. And now the Democrat governor has said "Covid is over" as far as the state is concerned. The snowball is beginning to roll. It will only get bigger over the next few weeks.

Covid-19: is omicron the best virus ever. Infects everyone -- providing natural immunity -- and symptoms no worse than a "cold." Is this virus burning itself out?

Covid-19: meanwhile, internationally, Austria is said to be out of control. Social distancing (lock downs) were reintroduced, non-vaccinated were ostracized, and mandatory vaccine announced in late November, 2021, will start in February, 2022. Apparently the virus heard all that, and fled the country. Link here.

Renewable energy; I just posted the top five EV companies per IBD. Now we have three renewable energy companies to watch this next year. Let's see, link to Alex Kimani:

Plug Power
Ford Motor
Enphase (ENPH)

For those paying attention, Ford keeps popping up on many lists. Just saying.

Ford:

still cheap in terms of dollars ($20 or thereabouts)
pays almost 2%
P/E at 30 is about the same at AAPL

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Music Through The Years

I first remember listening to music during my middle school years, September, 1963, through May, 1966.

So, it was fun to watch the "most popular song in each month in the 60s."

Let's see where this goes.

August, 1963: You're The Devil in Disguise, Elvis Presley
September, 1963: Blue Velvet, Bobby Vinton
October, 1963: Sugar Shack, Jimmy Gilmer and the Fireballs
November, 1963: You'll Never Walk Alone, Gerry and the Pacemakers
December, 1963: Dominique, Soeur Sourire
January, 1964: She Love You, The Beatles
February, 1964: I Want To Hold Your Hand, The Beatles
March, 1964, I Saw Her Standing There, The Beatles
April, 1964: Can't Buy Me Love, The Beatles
......
August, 1964: A Hard Day's Night, The Beatles
September, 1964: The House of the Rising Sun, The Animals
October, 1964: Oh, Pretty Woman, Roy Orbison
....
December, 1964: Mr Lonely, Bobby Vinton
January, 1965: I Feel Fine, The Beatles
....
March, 1965: Eight Days a Week, The Beatles
...
May, 1965: Ticket to Ride, The Beatles

Enough for tonight.

AWWWW? No, AWS -- December 12, 2021

Some folks may recall the internet went down for a short period of time early last week.

Amazon was the first to have gone down; others noted Fidelity quickly followed. Then pretty much "everything" in bits and pieces, but it recovered quickly.

Someone mentioned that "70% of the internet is controlled by Amazon." I don't know. Curious. Time to google.

Politics, The Wealthy, The Media, And The Cloud -- December 12, 2021

This is an incredibly interesting observation with which I agree and noted some years ago. I assume one doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to have noted this.

Although national elections are close, red vs blue, and although it seems things are "closer" in Washington, again red vs blue, in the big scheme of things, where it counts when it comes to the economy and to investing it seems this is absolutely accurate: the wealthy, the elite, the media, Big Tech, the automobile industry, Big Pharma, the bankers, universities, even the military to great extent, am I missing anyone? -- I guess everyone but the oil companies -- have co-opted the Democrat Party.

Good, bad, or indifferent, nothing has changed. Money is the lubricant of political parties. But wow, all that lubricant seems to be flowing to one party. For investors, perhaps that's not so bad. Whether it is or not, at some time it seems the adage "you can't fight the Fed" is quickly becoming the "you can't fight the Fed nor the Dems."

The EV story is perhaps the most clear-cut. EVs make no sense -- no matter how measured -- and EVs cannot make it without a lot of help from the federal government: financial and policy. But it's clear EVs will replace ICEs within the lifetimes of our grandchildren if not within the lifetimes of our daughters.

It takes a lot of "inefficiency" out of investing when one knows which way the wind is blowing.

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NFL

I haven't been following the NFL very closely this except for a few teams.

It looks like it's going to become a very, very exciting season. With Tom Brady moving from New England, and Dak Prescott back on the field and the Chiefs re-gaining their footing, we're going to have some exciting playoff matches.

Instead of one dominant team this year, we're going to have several -- maybe five -- dominant teams.

My hunch: the NFL is going to set some all-time rating records.

Back To Those Incredible Slawson Submariner Wells -- December 12, 2021

The other day, I think it was Friday I was simply updating some wells that were drilled a year or so ago; I forget the specifics. Not cherry-picking wells that I was going through; I was simply going down the list of wells drilled last year or whenever it was when I stumbled across an incredible Slawson well, and then another, and then another. [Until that moment, I had forgotten all about the Submariner wells; it's been a long time since I've seen Slawson active in the Bakken.]

The wells in question:

at this link, the dreaded Bakken decline: 32274, 2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2SLH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 26K after 21 days; cum 165K 10/20; TD = 27,332 feet; 94 stages; 16.4 million lbs; cum 377K 10/21;
at this link, 440K in less than three years: 32272, A/IA/1,927, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2-23-20H, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 28K after 18 days; cum 193K 2/20; TD = 28,186 feet; three section lateral; 102-stages; 18.1 million lbs; off line 1/20; remains off line 10/20; cum 440K 10/21;
at this link, OMG, look at what Slawson is doing in the Bakken: 31561, 2,175, Submariner Federal 6-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 41K in 27 days; cum 139K 2/20; TD = 27,537 feet; 97 stages, 15.4 million lbs; 3-section lateral; remains off line 10/20; back on line 12/20; cum 365K 10/20;
at this link; off line almost one year, comes back stronger than ever: 2274, 2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2 SLH, 31 stages; 2.6 million lbs; 63 stages; 13.8 million lbs; Big Bend, t6/19; cum 165K 2/20; remains off line 9/20; back on line 2/21; cum 377K 10/21;

I'm bringing this up again because it seems there is "something going on in the Bakken" that is new -- either new technology or new strategies for completions or a combination of both. I've not seen anyone else writing about this in the mainstream media. My hunch is if that's accurate -- something new occurring -- it will eventually be discussed in quarterly conference calls or at some oil conference.

A reader writes:

When we finally 'learn' just what the heck Slawson is doing with those Submariner wells, we will know how this formation pressure situation is being implemented.

The virtual lack of decline coupled with the presence of - literally - hundreds of thousands of barrels of produced water is as clear a 'smoking gun' evidence that injected water is being used to drive the hydrocarbons to the well bore.

Eventual public revealing of these techniques will absolutely rock the energy world.

[It seems there are very few if any] who are both monitoring and posting this absolutely tectonic evolution in unconventional production.

The Myth Of Spare Capacity -- December 12, 2021

I probably should have done this quite some time ago: create this tag -- spare capacity.

Spare capacity? Link here. The myth of spare capacity.

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Updates

Russia: December, 2021, over November, 2021, no increase, despite growing demand, and high prices. Suggests Russia may not have the spare capacity some suggest. And, here.

Sinclair Fracking With Large Amounts Of Water -- December 12, 2021

The other day we took a look at the wells recently posted by Sinclair. I didn't get a chance to look at the frack data until today. Looking at one of those wells, it appears Sinclair is completing these wells with large fracks, using over 12 million gallons of water. This is in contrast to MRO recently reporting wells fracked with six million gallons of water.

The Bruin FB Belford Wells -- Rolling Out Bakken 4.5 -- December 12, 2021

Updates

December 20, 2021, full note here:

36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03775, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21; FracFocus reports two fracks, which we've discussed before:

first frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21: 8.367 million gallons of water, 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;
second frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21; 8.939 million gallons of water; 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	30	18583	18622	10298	25842	22537	305
BAKKEN	9-2021	13	12880	12734	8257	14162	12223	146
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31390	31346	36670	39998	37939	1241
BAKKEN	7-2021	29	40500	40541	40207	43835	42432	1403
BAKKEN	6-2021	11	19332	19016	21922	17927	16383	1209

December 17, 2021: an update with frack data.

Later, 4:29 p.m. CT: a reader replied to the "pad drilling" issue --

A few years back, some industry executive was explaining some of the economics behind not only 4 to 6 wells per pad simultaneously being drilled/completed, but also the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing 3 to 4 pads in close proximity.

Interesting perspective.

Taking those six Bruin wells that you have noted for example, at $6 million per well, Bruin would have 'pre-paid' $36 million before any revenue came back.

With a cumulative production just over half a million barrels (~511,000) and $50/bbl pricing, Bruin would have already grossed about $25 million in oil revenue and $2 million from the gas ... roughly.

It may take till the end of a year, but Bruin may be 'in the money' after 12 month's time.

For operators doing this on, say, four pads simultaneously, the capital outlay could approach $150 million prior to any revenue coming in.

Definitely a game for the Big Boys.

(That executive also stressed that the logistics could be daunting trying to develop 16/20 wells simultaneously, but the 'discount/efficiencies' could be well worth it when giving a LOT of business to the chosen oil field service contractors).

Regardless, once the cash flow starts, it becomes easier to tackle the next big project.

Original Post

Well, well, well -- no pun intended. LOL. I've been waiting to roll out Bakken 4.5, and today is the day. Rolling out Bakken 4.5.

Bakken 4.5 is defined as the period in which we, as observers, move from a focus on single-well completions, and start to focus on pad drilling. Yes, pad drilling has been going on for several years now, but mostly by a handful of operators. Now, it has become the norm for all operators.

In fact, if an operator is not pad drilling, that operator may not be around for long. It's just too inefficient and expensive not to be pad drilling (infill / development wells; this does not apply to exploratory wells).

But before moving into Bakken 4.5 I wanted to see:

a recovery in the price of oil, which we have; and,
the "end" of Covid-19 determining activity in the shale plays; and, perhaps to some extent,
shale-operator CAPEX discipline

If the third "factor" (shale-operator CAPEX discipline) moved to hyper-activity / insane CAPEX increases, then I would move directly to Bakken 5.0.

These are incredibly good wells. I can't remember my early thoughts on the Eagle Nest oil field. Let's look together. The Eagle Nest is tracked here, but like all fields, I have not kept up with the updates. But that's fine. The original posts were done during the boom. March 25, 2012, the original assessment:

Forty-four sections as of March, 2012. A very active field with four rigs on site as of March, 2012. The field is noted for its multi-well pads. Major operator is Petro-Hunt. One of the most scenic highways in North Dakota, state highway 22, pretty much splits the field in half, east half from west half. This is going to be a great field.

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The Bruin FB Belford Wells

The wells:

22300, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-2T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01602, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 23K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	9772	9748	7594	11946	9099	1281
BAKKEN	9-2021	25	11688	11627	8570	13973	10831	1143
BAKKEN	8-2021	5	1601	1600	1535	5126	3762	403
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	2	0	0	13758	309	198	97

22301, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-3B, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01603, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 154K 10/21; 41K over 22 days extrapolates to 56K over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23999	23939	12831	42918	34129	4804
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	25592	25709	8339	38079	30411	3209
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31608	31586	16561	38864	33199	3561
BAKKEN	7-2021	27	31950	32004	20584	33191	28921	4270
BAKKEN	6-2021	22	41192	40643	45859	41111	26643	13138

36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	18622	22537
9-2021	12734	12223
8-2021	31346	37939
7-2021	40541	42432
6-2021	19016	16383

36303, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-13T-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03776, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	26302	39502
9-2021	23231	31333
8-2021	22512	26863
7-2021	29830	31424
6-2021	23335	21

36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	13998	8955
9-2021	3734	1312
8-2021	13564	12776
7-2021	29143	26836
6-2021	25029	15594

36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03778, first production, 6/21; --; t--; cum 102K 10/21; obviously, 24K over 15 days extrapolates to 48K over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	15440	15401	13313	23138	18048	2541
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	18805	18854	14238	26295	20869	2202
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	19061	19048	23270	24391	20633	2213
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	24105	24136	33429	29890	26045	3845
BAKKEN	6-2021	15	24092	23771	39643	26627	17503	8631

36306, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03779; first production, 6/21, --; t--; cum 161K 10/21; 34K over 18 days extrapolates to 56K over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	19289	19241	7071	30953	24340	3426
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	25063	25138	8502	37416	29932	3159
BAKKEN	8-2021	27	31726	31704	15569	39810	34065	3654
BAKKEN	7-2021	29	50996	51040	26140	65504	57077	8427
BAKKEN	6-2021	18	33693	33244	37265	40321	26488	13062

36307, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-6T, Eagle Nest, first production, 10/21; t--; cum --;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2882	2874	6869	2605	1864	262
BAKKEN	9-2021	6	0	0	29259	21	19	2
BAKKEN	8-2021	6	0	0	40481	19	17	2
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	1	62	61	1371	82	52	26

Graphics:

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Week -- December 12, 2021