Something Going On In Murphy Creek? October 11, 2022

Correspondence from a reader suggests there may be something going on in Murphy Creek oil field, specifically in the area of section 7-144 -95. The reader is being offered a lot of cash for minerals in that field. I can't find anything to tell the reader. 

There are two wells with horizontals in that section:

• 22787, 1,161, MRO, Irene Kovaloff 14-7H, Murphy Creek, t10/12; cum 221K 8/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	24	713	703	586	590	327	98
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	996	1062	731	858	542	70
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	1096	1067	758	864	609	11
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1113	1106	889	915	608	53
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	1229	1227	917	965	668	44
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1445	1363	1319	1117	810	35
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1196	1087	1516	941	634	79
BAKKEN	1-2022	2	1	0	127	9	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	162	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	24	723	675	576	612	430	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	808	833	700	674	354	109

• 17160, 378, MRO, Viola Koberstine 34-7H, Murphy Creek, t8/08; cum 154K 8/22: look at the production profile -- 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	13	2687	3248	173	1611	1227	66
BAKKEN	6-2022	2	924	363	207	537	274	171
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	13	3243	3774	280	1928	830	732
BAKKEN	8-2021	2	540	0	113	302	5	255
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	9	1132	1297	62	702	0	579
BAKKEN	9-2020	7	2911	2747	297	1603	0	1377
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	10	596	997	56	379	0	287
BAKKEN	4-2019	5	1210	808	202	690	0	586
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	0	81	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	19	3486	3391	334	2241	955	1014

Two Things Before I Forget -- October 11, 2022

Two things before I forget:

• Amazon Prime Day: first of two days in process; tomorrow, last day
• with retailers struggling; too much inventory, this could be an incredible opportunity
• me? I'm watching the Apple deals. My wife definitely needs an iPad; I need a "throw-away" iPad now that Sophia always using mine. Maybe time to take a look at the iPad mini, something I've never considered before
• I believe Amazon offers BNPL -- interest free over six months
  

• MLB: playoffs begin now that wildcard series are over
• Seattle Mariners / Houston Astros -- what an incredible finish, game1, Houston wins!
  

Rimrock: Sayonara? October 11, 2022

From my perspective, it's a pretty big deal to have Devon in the Bakken, but then again, that's just me. 

In today's NDIC daily activity report:

• Change of operator: from Rimrock Oil & Gas to WPX Energy, about 250 wells;
• almost all in Dunn County;
• a handful in McKenzie County

Background, from Rigzone, June 10, 2022:

Devon Energy Corp has announced that it has entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire the leasehold interest and related assets of RimRock Oil and Gas LP in the Williston Basin for a total cash consideration of $865 million.

The deal is subject to customary terms and conditions and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2022, with an effective date of April 1, 2022, Devon noted. It is expected to be immediately accretive to all relevant per-share metrics in the first year, including earnings, cash flow, free cash flow, and net asset value, according to Devon.

Devon outlined that the transaction adds a contiguous position of 38,000 net acres directly offsetting and overlapping Devon’s existing position. The company noted that the deal adds more than 100 “highly economic” undrilled inventory locations, “positioning the company’s Williston Basin assets to maintain high-margin production and strong cash flow for several years”.

RimRock had made no mention of the deal on its website at the time of writing. The company’s latest news release was made in February 2021 and related to the completion of an exchange agreement between RimRock and XTO Energy Inc. Under the terms of that deal, RimRock and XTO exchanged approximately 5,500 net acres and associated production located in Dunn County, North Dakota. 

38,000 acres (?).

$865 million / 38,000 acres = $23,000 / acre. 

Over at the blog's "operators" page:

RimRock Oil & Gas

• June 8, 2022: buyout offer from Devon. 
  
• July 25, 2021: buyout offer? 
• private equity firm Warburg Pincus asked for indicative acquisition offers for a deal that could exceed $500 million
• June 6, 2019: makes fifth acquisition in Divide County; 120,000 net acres
• March 19, 2018: list of 27 more wells transferred from Whiting to Rimrock Oil & Gas;
• February 12, 2018: list of 101 wells transferred from Whiting to Rimrock Oil & Gas
• these are some very nice Whiting wells that were first permitted/drilled by KOG, Dunn County
• RimRock natural gas gathering system, Fort Berthold/Dunn County  -- January 26, 2018
• buys Whiting assets in Fort Berthold Indian Reservation -- September, 2017
• first noted in 2016 / 2017 -- took over some QEP wells; website;

Devon

• Devon is tracked here. 
  
• June 8, 2022: with the announced purchase of RimRock's assets in North Dakota, Devon is now officially an operator in the Bakken;
  
• 2011: not in North Dakota yet (?), but Lynn Helms suggested Devon is coming

A google search with regard to the deal:

Only One New Permit; Devon Acquires Rimrock's Wells -- October 11, 2022

My "Disney" portfolio: I've mentioned this on the blog before. 

Prices for Disneyland (California) and Disney World (Florida) require some planning at this end. Our younger daughter wants to take her two-year-old twins to Disneyland (California) when they turn eight years old. When I heard that, I immediately opened a Schwab account which I refer to as "our Disney" fund. Doing the math, I figured $100 each month in an investment portfolio with Schwab over six years would be more than enough to fund their "Disney" trip. But then, I decided to put $200 in each month, $100 per grandson. 

Today, a reader sent me a note that Disney had raised their prices -- at Disneyland, according to the Los Angeles Times. It appears that $200 / month for one or two months will easily cover the price increases. We're still on track. No need to increase the monthly allotment. Note: to date, the "Disney" investment portfolio is doing very, very well, and no Disney (DIS) shares are in that portfolio.

Meanwhile, the parks seem to be doing well:

Walt Disney Co. doesn’t break out individual park’s financial performance, but in the quarter that ended July 2, Disney parks, experiences and products generated $7.4 billion in revenue, compared with $4.3 billion in the same quarter last year.

The division reached $2.2 billion in operating income for the quarter, compared with $356 million a year earlier.

“Operating income growth at our domestic parks and experiences was due to higher volumes and increased guest spending.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $88.57.

Natural gas: $6.605.

One new permit, #39299:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail County)
• Comments: 
• NWNWW 29-152-92, 
• to be sited 320 FNL and 1270 FWL

Eight permits renewed:

• Sinclair (6): one Nelson permit in Mountrail County; two Yauch permits in McKenzie County; one Porcupine permit, one Olson Federal permit, and one Crosby Creek, all in Dunn County
• Petro-Hunt: a Mongoose permit in McKenzie County
• Slawson: one Bazooka permit in Mountrail County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38777, 670, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-5-23H 4,
• 38695, 1,001, Lime Rock Resources, Behr 16-21 2H-LL-155-91,
• 35150, no data, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2H2,

From yesterday:

• Eleven permits renewed:
• Petro-Hunt (7): two Arsenal Federal, two Mongoose, and three Clark Griswold Federal permits, all in McKenzie County
• BR: one Abercrombie permit in McKenzie County;
• Resonance: one Resonance Green permits in Bottineau County;
• Zavanna: one Shepherd SWD permit in Williams County;
• Grayson Mill: one Banks SWD in McKenzie County;
• Change of operator: from Rimrock Oil & Gas to WPX Energy, about 250 wells; see this post.
  
• almost all in Dunn County;
• a handful in McKenzie County

Flashback -- North Dakota Blizzard -- April, 2022

Link here to the National Weather Service.

And, yes, there is a reason for posting this.

A Reader Asked Me About EOG In The Bakken -- October 11, 2022

Updates

Later, 2:34 p.m. CT: after posting the original note, I happened to come across the following:

Original Post

The usual disclaimers apply. This is from my data bases and there are likely to be errors. In addition, it is a snapshot in time, accurate, to the extent it was accurate at all, only at the moment it was posted.

My reply to the reader:

Permits in 2020:

• EOG: one permit, #37356 in Antelope oil field
  

Permits in 2021:

• EOG: eight permits, all in Parshall oil field, all Liberty LR wells; all CONF / LOC, suggesting not drilled yet
• 38324
• 38325
• 38326: NWSE 23-151-91
• 38327
• 38328
• 38329
• 38330
• 38331
  

Permits in 2022:

• 38965, Mandaree 48-0916H, Squaw Creek oil field: STATUS: DRL/CONF
• 38966, Mandaree 48-1015H, Squaw Creek oil field: STATUS: DRL/CONF

Miscellaneous comments that might affect the conversation:

1. Sometimes more than one operator has rights in any given drilling unit. Generally, the operator with the largest percent, gets the permits. However, if that operator appears not to be going after a permit, another operator can submit a permit request to drill in that drilling. At that point, the NDIC finds out if the operator with the bigger percent is going to drill; if not, the NDIC might grant the permit to another operator.

2. It's possible in the Parshall field, EOG is doing exactly that. Another operator was anxious to see wells there; EOG was going to drill, so the other operator stepped in. At that point, EOG went after the permits. They got the permits but haven't drilled.

3. In the big scheme of things EOG is not focused on the Permian, not the Bakken. Right now, EOG has no active rigs in North Dakota (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/riglist.asp).

The reader also asked how long these wells would continue to produce?

Wow, wow, wow -- that's a great question. How long will these wells last. 

It really depends on the operator. Once the wells are more of a hassle than a benefit for the operator, they will either sell them or abandon them.

EOG is so big, that as these wells dwindle, they are a nuisance for the company and they most likely just want to get rid of them. It seems that companies like EOG are more likely to plug and abandon whereas smaller operators are more likely to sell them to someone who can make stripper wells work.

Other operators might go in and re-frack but EOG has just way too many other things to do right now; in addition, it's very, very difficult finding frack crews.

It looks like some of the operators most interested in the Bakken: CLR, Ovintiv, Hess, Grayson Mill, Slawson (see active rig list, linked above, for full list). Chord (Whiting/Oasis) -- my hunch -- is going to get very active.

One Tool In The Toolbox -- Yeah, I Know, If All You Have Is A Hammer, Everything .... October 11, 2022

One tool in the toolbox.

***************************
Clearing Out The In-Box

1. Wheat, link here:

2. Themes -- 2023, link here:

3. The cost of the renewables myth, link here.

4. Inflation and profits. To some extent he is true. I've posted examples, link here.

Global Oil Reserves -- October 11, 2022

This is another one of that "metrics" that means little but is interesting.

Link here.

Rounding:

• Saudi Arabia: 20%
• Venezuela: 20%
• Iran: 10%
• Iraq: 10%
• Canada: 10%
• Russia: 5%
  
• US: less than 5%
• China: 0%
  

The Book Page: Breathless -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 11, 2022

If I place any more notes on this book, it will be at this site. 

The book:

Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022

I completed the book last week over three days and am starting to re-read it for the second time (my third reading). It's a very good book but I'm not sure I would recommend it. This is a tough subject. It's hard to find "unbiased" articles / books about the subject. If you don't believe me, just do a google search. LOL.

The first chapter was a page turner, but then the next several chapters dragged. I scanned through these chapters quickly. But then, when getting back to the subject at hand, it became a great book again. I ended up reading the book from back to front, the second reading. The chapters were short, and that made it easy to read the last chapter first, then the second-to-last chapter, then the third-to-last chapter, then the previous chapter, and so on.

Considering how much I thought I knew about the subject, I was surprised by all I did not know and some very, very interesting insights from the author.

Disappointments:

• on several occasions, the author is very, very flippant;
• the author is very weak with the biology in some cases; most notable -- his apparent lack of interest in ACE2 which is key to the infection;
• a snide remark about the US intel community absolutely unnecessary;
  
• no illustrations; there were opportunities for some great illustrations, particularly the "tripod" spikes; I find is amazing that a book of this nature: no illustrations (most likely to keep costs down)
  

The best reason for reading the book: it provides a great foundation for understanding the disease, and the seriousness of the coronavirus. 

With regard to providing a great foundation for understanding the disease, it allowed me to better understand this article:

"Myocarditis With Covid-19 mRNA Vaccines," Circulation AHA, July 20, 2021. Link here.

Along that line, another important article:

"Sudden Cardiac Death in Athletes," NCBI-NLM-NIH-GOV, April-June 2016. Link here.

I'm happy to see that "we've" discovered the cause for these sudden cardiac deaths in athletes back in 2016, the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine.

Back to mRNA vaccines. Look at the date this article was published:

"mRNA Vaccines -- A New Era In Vaccinology," Nature, "Nature Reviews Drug Discovery," January 12, 2018. Link here.

And, from Forbes, a two-series article, just published:

"Two Are Better Than One: Expanding Our Coviid-19 Vaccine Antigens," William A. Haseltine, October 3, 2022. Link here.
"Supercharging mRNA Vaccines With Self-Amplifying RNA Technology," William A. Haseltine, December 6, 2022. Link here.

For investors, see this post:

The future, to put this in perspctive:

• automobile technology : EVs :: pharmaceuticals : mRNA.

mRNA vaccines were in development for two decades (? -- needs to be fact-checked) prior to coronavirus pandemic. 

mRNA technology has revolutionized prevention of infectious diseases and may have other uses.

Seasonal flu vaccines: by 2023, we should be seeing mRNA vaccines which will be much better than current seasonal flu vaccines.

The other day I posted this graphic, link here: 

I don't recall posting this graphic, but if I did, I did not annotate it, as such:

Devon -- October 11, 2022

Link here.

Oil and gas leader Devon Energy (DVN) joined forces with industry peers Williams Cos. (WMB) and Oneok (OKE) to transform America's heartland into a hub for energy technology startups. 

Meanwhile, DVN stock continues to prime a new buy point.

With the highest-possible 99 Composite Rating, Devon Energy earns a spot on the IBD 50 and IBD Big Cap 20. It also made the latest list of new buys by the best mutual funds, taking in roughly $190 million. DVN stock adds to the accolades by joining IBD Leaderboard to kick off the new week.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

WMB stock also made the list of new buys by top funds, garnering investments totaling an estimated $194 million. Mirroring the Energy Select Sectors SPDR (XLE) ETF, Williams and Oneok are also drilling for new entries.

Devon teams up to energize America's heartland.

Based in Oklahoma, Devon Energy is a leading independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company, with operations focused onshore in the U.S.

Last week, Devon announced a partnership with Williams and Oneok, as well as venture capital firm Energy Innovation Capital (EIC) and tech-focused nonprofit Tulsa Innovation Labs.

Spearheaded by EIC, the first-of-its-kind initiative aims to attract energy technology startups to the region. The initiative will provide access to resources including free office space and custom startup support services. EIC will also provide access to early-stage capital with a $50 million fund.

Together with founding corporate partners Devon Energy, Oneok and Williams, EIC will assist startups to pilot forward-looking technologies. The project is expected to create more than 1,700 jobs across the energy industry.

NOG Announces Additional Core Northern Delaware Basin Bolt-on Acquisition -- October 11, 2022

Press release:

• bolt-on acquisition of core non-operated working interest properties in the Northern Delaware Basin for a purchase price of $130.0 million 
• average production of ~2,500 Boe per day (68% oil, 2-stream) expected for 2023, generating an estimated $55 million of unhedged cash flow in 2023 at strip pricing as of October 10, 2022 (~2.4x transaction multiple)  -- $52,000 / boepd
  
• ~2,100 net acres located in Lea and Eddy Counties, NM and Loving & Winkler Counties, TX with significant Tier-1 inventory (sub-$40 per barrel average breakevens) -- $62,000 / acre
  
• strong growth and free cash flow profile with ~$25 million capital spending expected on the assets in 2023

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $89.76. Looks like OPEC's cut was not enough, or the additional release from the US SPR is working. The bad news: SPR release unlikely to help California.

Natural gas: $6.372.

Active rigs: 44.

Does anyone remember what was going on in the Bakken six months ago? Link here.

Monday, October 17, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Sunday, October 16, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Saturday, October 15, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Friday, October 14, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None.

Thursday, October 13, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None.

Wednesday, October 12, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year
38811, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 3-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH,

RBN Energy: Permian crude leads growth, but will gas processing capacity keep up? Archived.

When it comes to U.S. crude oil plays, no basin has been more resilient than the Permian post-2020, and by extension, no basin has played a bigger role in taming oil prices — and regional natural gas prices — in recent months. 

While crude production in most other oil-focused basins is flat-to-lower on average since 2020, Permian crude output has climbed 15% in that time, from about 4.5 MMb/d in 2020 to just over 5.1 MMb/d this year to date, with much of that growth occurring in the past year or so. 

You could say Permian crude saved the day — at least for a time. However, that growth could not have happened without a significant build-out of natural gas midstream infrastructure. And a lot more of it will be needed if Permian crude production is to continue growing and keep U.S. crude oil prices in check. In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on gas processing capacity in the Permian.