US Crude Oil Production Record Is Absolutely Staggering -- Doubled In Ten Years -- January 31, 2018

Earlier it was reported that US crude oil production hit 10 million bopd in November, 2017, (most current data available) for the first time since 1970. EIA data here.

There's a great interactive chart at this post that compares exactly onshore vs offshore US crude oil production.

In addition: look at these stats:

• the production in November, 2017, was 13.1% greater year-over-year (2017 compared to 2016)
• production in November, 2017, was 42.8% greater than 2012, when the Bakken was hitting its stride
• production in November, 2017, almost exactly doubled (99.4%) US production in November, 2007, the year of the "discovery" well in the Bakken

Memo to self: send note to Jane ("it's all hype") Nielson -- https://theamericanwestatrisk.wordpress.com/2010/06/25/bakken-oil-hype/.

The interesting thing is that when Barack Obama said this, he was removing Federal land from oil exploration. A "drill, baby, drill" strategy off-shore and on Federal land would have probably been as successful as the shale revolution had the former not been stopped dead in its tracks.

US - Saudi Crude Oil Imports Increase Slightly -- November, 2017, Data Just Posted

Link here.

MRO Reports Two Huge Wells; WTI Rises Despite All Odds; Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Advance By Two -- January 31, 2018

In the dead of winter, this is nice to see -- active rigs in North Dakota jump by 2:

$64.85↑	1/31/2018	01/31/2017	01/31/2016	01/31/2015	01/31/2014
Active Rigs	59	40	45	146	191

I'm also surprised that WTI price held in there, holding above $64, and actually trending back toward $65.

Five new permits:

• Operators: Kraken Operating (4); Whiting
• Fields: Ellisville (Williams), Truax (Williams)
• Comment:

No permits canceled: pending

One permit renewed: a Hunt Patten permit in Mountrail County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30133, 4,855, MRO, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, Sanish, t12/17; cum --
• 30488, 4,144, MRO, TAT USA 14-22H, Sanish, t12/17; cum --

New permits:
34533, Whiting, Thomas Federal Truax,
34534, Kraken, Longhorn, Ellisville,
34535, Kraken, Longhorn, Ellisville,
34536, Kraken, Longhorn, Ellisville,
34537, Kraken, Longhorn, Ellisvile,

Comment: The MRO Veronica and TAT USA wells are seen in the graphic below. In addition to being an extremely active area right now, MRO is reporting some very huge wells.

New Poll: What Might Replace GE On The Dow? -- January 31, 2018

Poll at the sidebar at the right.

You can choose up to two (2) selections.

Poll encourages folks to offer their own suggestions.

Making America Great Again -- Americans' Pay Rose At Fastest Pace Since 2008 During Trump's First Year In Office -- January 31, 2018

From ZeroHedge:

• while The Fed may be getting nervous, we suspect the Trump administration will be smirking quietly as Labor Department data showed total U.S. employee compensation rose in the fourth quarter to match the biggest 12-month gain since 2008, as private-sector pay picked up
• the headline index rose 0.6% q/q (matching est.) after 0.7% gain in prior three months
• wages and salaries rose 0.5% q/q following 0.7% gain
• benefit costs increased 0.5% q/q after rising 0.8%
• total compensation, which includes wages and benefits, rose 2.7% over past 12 months, the highest since 2008

***********************

The Energy And Market Page, T+10

MPC: to reward shareholders with 15% dividend hike.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial, investment, relationship, travel, or job-related decisions based on what you read here or what your spouse might have read here.

EPD from Motley Fool via Yahoo!Finance:

For an investor looking at Enterprise Products Partners for the first time, this past quarter's results probably look great. Gross margins, net income, and cash flow all grew substantially and beat Wall Street's expectations. For those who have followed the company for a long time, though, these results aren't too much of a surprise as this quarter was pretty much business as usual for the oil and gas pipeline and processing giant.

EPD from Reuters via Yahoo!Finance, Enterprise Products eyes expansion of Midland-to-Sealy crude pipeline. Data points:

• could expand capacity on its Midland-to-Sealy crude oil pipeline by more than 20 percent to help transport even more oil from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the largest U.S. oilfield
• the expansion comes as Exxon Mobil Corp and others map out aggressive growth for Permian operations, fueling a rising need for transport to refining and export facilities near the U.S. Gulf Coast
• crude flows on the line averaged 330,000 bpd after the pipeline came online in November
• flows are expected to hit 450,000 bpd as soon as April once the line is fully operational
• preparations are under way to potentially further boost capacity on the line by installing pumps and drag reducing agents, chemicals added to pipelines to improve the flow of liquids
• the company has the capacity to go in the 540,000 bpd to 550,000 bpd range "right now"

Disclaimer: I'm a long term investor in two pipeline MLPs, including EPD. I have no plans to sell or buy any shares of EPD in the near future.

Hess: from Reuters via Yahoo!Finance, Hess plans $2.1 billion budget for 2018, unchanged from 2017.

• mostly in North Dakota and Guyana, keeping its budget unchanged from 2017 amid a battle over corporate strategy with activist investor Elliott Management Corp.
• Hess Corporation will spend $900 million to drill 120 wells with six drilling rigs and completing 85 wells in 2018 in the Bakken
• executives across the U.S. oil industry have been feeling pressure to focus on profitability and shareholder returns, a departure from their long-established practice of boosting production regardless of the cost
• Hess said it expects it can be "cash generative" after 2020 with oil prices of $50 per barrel. The company has not made a profit since 2014
• Hess has recently been in the news: the recently announced Hess-Targa Resources joint venture

Disclaimer: I've been an investor in Hess over the past 30 years. I have no plans to buy or sell any shares of Hess in the near future. Growing up in Williston, ND, I grew up with Hess, figuratively and literally.

.... And How Much Of It Was Shale? One Might Ask -- January 31, 2018

Updates

February 1, 2018: Bloomberg answers part of the question.

U.S. oil production surged above 10 million barrels a day for the first time in four decades, another marker of a profound shift in global crude markets.

The milestone comes weeks after the International Energy Agency said the U.S. is poised for "explosive" growth in oil output that would push it past Saudi Arabia and Russia this year. New drilling and production techniques have opened up billions of barrels of recoverable U.S. oil in shale rock formations in the past 10 years, reversing decades of declining output and turning the nation into an exporter.

Production from Texas, which also included the Eagle Ford play, contributed 3.89 million barrels a day to the November figure, the most of any state. Production from the Gulf of Mexico and North Dakota, where the Bakken shale lies, were close behind.

Later, 3:09 p.m CT: after posting the screenshot/data below, a writer wrote me --

Continental sold X amount in October when $ low, X x 150% in November, back to X again in December (payable on January 29, 2018), prices still high, but trending upward.

Appears that if Continental expects prices to be higher the following month they increase the pump rate. "My" wells all have remote control enabling pump speed management from Oklahoma ... you've must likely touched on this before and I've forgotten.....

Yes, I've mentioned this before, in passing, but for new newbies, CLR (and others) can control their pumps remotely. I also believe that CLR no longer hedges its oil.

Original Post

Faster than expected but look at where the US could be a year from now, link here:

US Added A "HEALTHY" 234,000 Jobs In January -- AP -- January 31, 2018

Updates

Later, 2:25 p.m. CT: it appears the AP's article was a bit under-stated. Here's what CNBC had to say about the jobs report today:

• numbers crushed forecast
• forecast: 185,000
• actual: 234,000
• "well above expectations"
• service-related industries led, but sectors with high-paying jobs also did well

Original Post

Jobs, jobs, jobs. Link here.  Data points:

• "US businesses continued to hire at a healthy pace"
• "a sign that the economy is off to a solid start for the year"
• 234,000 jobs added, according to ADP; we will get official government figures tomorrow
• "businesses are optimist about the economy, particularly after the President Donald Trump's tax overhaul was approved last month
• the recover that began shortly after the steep recession in 2008 is now the second longest in US history
• "at this point in the cycle, it's really impressive to still be generating this many jobs"

I assume CNBC's Steve Liesman has been able to find the downside in all this.


I haven't watched CBNC the past two days and won't watch it today. I purposely won't watch CNBC during major political events, and I won't watch it during particularly volatile days on the market. The hyperbole of the talking heads is almost too much to take on a "normal, quiet day" in the market; on anything but quiet days, it's impossible for me to watch CNBC; the inanity increases exponentially.

I assume CNBC's senior markets commentator is still talking about overshoot, and I assume Steve Liesman is really, really flabbergasted by the most recent ADP numbers, probably suggesting that the official government numbers coming out tomorrow will likely show something different.

The CNBC crew continues to suggest this "bull market" is long in the tooth, and they don't understand how it can continue. It seems they have not looked at the 100-year Dow chart:

History does not predict what the market will do next, but to say that the current bull market has never happened before or is somehow different or has "overshot," or is frothy or is "different this time," seem(s) to be somewhat inaccurate.

There are many, many story lines in the chart above. Note: the y-axis is non-linear. If it were linear, it would be even more staggering.

****************************

A Note To The Granddaughters

I read Michael J Behe's first book many years ago, and read it only once, though I probably read sections of it more than once. I forget.

I was happy to see Behe write a follow-up book but on first reading I was disappointed in the book for a number of reasons: it seemed to be a repeat of what he had already said, and it seemed very repetitious in and of itself. However, now that I am re-reading it very, very slowly, I am very impressed.

It's very much an argument between Michael J Behe and Richard Dawkins. Now that I am reading The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism again, it seems to me that Dawkins deals with the little questions about life, while Behe addresses the big questions about life.

Oh, Oh -- The Bakken Strikes Back -- US Crude Oil Inventories Surge -- Up 6.8 Million BBls -- Saudi's Worse Nightmare -- Time To Re-Balance Jumps -- WTI Holds Above $64

Updates

Later, 9:50 a.m. CT: look at the data below -- it's really quite amazing --

• first, look at refinery operating data -- dropped to 88% -- I haven't seen that in a long time; likely due to refineries starting to switch from winter to summer blends; possibly due to regularly scheduled maintenance; possibly increased capacity coming on line
• second, note that despite the decrease in refinery operating data, gasoline production increased -- two important story lines:
• refineries able to maintain production despite operating at 88% capacity
• gasoline prices had been trending up over the past few weeks, and pundits were starting to talk about the impact higher gasoline prices might have on Trump's economy
• third, even though crude oil imports seem to be moving up/down in a narrow range, the fact is imports have had a four-week trend of decreasing
• fourth, the surge in US crude oil inventories is not something Saudi wants to see
• we will see the gasoline demand graph later today

Original Post

Anticipating EIA data later today: posted here.

• US crude oil inventories: increased by 6.8 million bbls
• refineries operating potential collapses; well below 90% now; at 88.1%
• despite that, gasoline production increased last week -- wow -- almost 10 million bbls per day
• distillate fuel production decreased last week
• crude oil imports down a bit, continuing that trend
• at 418.4 million bbls of crude oil, US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year
• gasoline inventories near the top of the average range (all things being equal, gasoline prices should drop this week)

Re-balancing: the chart was getting too long, so I only included the data since October, 2017. This is really quite amazing. This is the first time in quite some time that the time to re-balance has increased, and the jump/reversal was not trivial. It jumped from 20 weeks to 24 weeks before we see re-balancing based on current rate of decrease in US crude oil inventories:

Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37
Week 26	October 25, 2017	-0.9	457.3	39
Week 27	November 1, 2017	2.4	454.9	38
Week 28	November 8, 2017	-2.2	457.1	42
Week 29	November 15, 2017	1.9	459.0	43
Week 30	November 22, 2017	1.9	457.1	42
Week 31	November 29, 2017	3.4	453.7	41
Week 32	December 6, 2017	5.6	448.1	37
Week 33	December 13, 2017	5.1	443.0	36
Week 34	December 20, 2017	6.5	436.5	30
Week 35	December 28, 2017	4.6	431.9	28
Week 36	January 4, 2018	7.4	424.5	25
Week 37	January 10, 2018	4.9	419.5	23
Week 38	January 18, 2018	6.9	412.7	20
Week 39	January 24, 2018	1.1	411.6	20
Week 40	January 31, 2018	-6.8	418.4	24

The Political Page, T+10 -- January 31, 2018

Trump speaks, market soars.

Pelosi Personality Discorder. Psychiatrists are now suggesting that Pesky Pelosi was catatonic during the SOTU address. Some suggest she has an underlying dissociative disorder. More likely she suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following events of November 7, 2016, and exacerbated on January 20, 2017. She has previously been diagnosed with MSNBC-CNN personality disorder (DSM-V) which crosses / overlaps three of the five major personality disorders: Antisocial/Psychopathic, Avoidant, Borderline.

*********************************

Meanwhile, The SOTU Ratings

This means a lot of Dems did not tune in to watch.

Making America Great Again: North Dakota's Gate City Bank Announces Reinvestment Plan, Plus Bonus Check -- Specifically Cites Trump Tax Bill -- January 31, 2018

Link to article sent to me by a reader. Thank you very much.

In response to the GOP tax bill recently passed by Congress, Gate City Bank announced plans late last week to reinvest $1.6 million to benefit its employees, customers and the community.

Included in its plan is $625,000 in employee bonuses. According to a press release issued by Gate City, each employee will be hand-delivered a $1,000 bonus check on January 15, 2018.

Customers will benefit from the bank's plan to offer $500,000 in free home appraisals. According to Gate City Bank, an average appraisal is valued at $600.

Pretty amazing. Good for them. 

Wednesday, January 31, 2018 -- Anticipating EIA Data Today

Trump speaks, market soars.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, relationship, or job-related decisions based on anything you read here or what you thought you  might have read here.

Apple: Apple likely to post a record-setting $84 billion in quarterly revenue for Q4 2017. 

Amid reports that Apple is planning to drastically scale back iPhone X production next quarter, the company later this week may very well post its most impressive earnings report in history. We’ll get a handle on specific figures at the close of trading on Thursday, but in the interim, the consensus on Wall St. is that Apple will post revenue of about $87 billion and EPS in the $3.83 range. 

If Apple should come anywhere close to meeting those figures — and there’s no reason to believe it won’t — it will easily mark the most successful quarter in company history. By way of comparison, Apple during the same quarter a year-ago posted $78.4 billion in quarterly revenue and overall earnings of $3.36. Incidentally, the $78.4 billion figure still stands as Apple’s most successful quarter to date. And with Apple last quarter providing revenue guidance in the $84 billion to $87 billion range, it’s a safe bet that Apple during the most recent holiday quarter shattered a number of records.

As a quick point of interest, the most bullish Apple analysts are projecting revenue of $90.2 billion while bearish analysts are anticipating revenue to hover around the $84 billion mark. And as far as overall earnings are concerned, the highest estimate we’ve seen is $4.12 per share while the lowest estimate is $3.41 per share.

Anticipating EIA data later today: posted here.

• US crude oil inventories: increased by 6.8 million bbls

API data, posted yesterday: weekly US crude oil inventories. Link here. Also, at this site.

• previous: 4.755 million bbls 
• forecast: 1.5 million bbls
• actual: 3.229 million bbls (almost twice forecast)
• this is a "build"; but API data, at least recent history, has been significantly different than what the EIA will report -- today, 10:30 a.m. -- but a build of 3.2 million bbls suggests that the EIA data tomorrow could come in somewhere between a draw of 1 million bbls and a build of 1 million bbls; within that range, it will not change the number of weeks to re-balance which is currently at 20 weeks. I use the EIA data to calculate weeks until US crude oil stores have "balanced"
• analysis six hours before the API data was released; this suggests me to the stronger dollar is not being offset by increased demand/less supply hopes

*************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.16	1/31/2018	01/31/2017	01/31/2016	01/31/2015	01/31/2014
Active Rigs	57	40	45	146	191

RBN Energy: rising Canadian production, takeaway constraints and WCS price discounts, part 2.

********************************

Accuracy In Reporting

So, what is it? A five-fold increase or production to triple? Reported yesterday at this post, that Exxon's production would increase 5-fold in the Permian by 2025. Later, the story changed to this: Exxon production in the Permian would triple by 2025. It seems to me there's a pretty good difference between "five-fold" and "triple."

GOP Whisks Agricultural Secretary To Undisclosed Location During SOTU In Case DC Is "Destroyed." Shutdown Schumer Wanted To Whisk Maxine Waters To An Undisclosed Location (And Leave Her There) But She Already Had Her Speech Ready -- January 30, 2018

Link here.

I was joking about Schumer/Waters but it's probably not too far from the truth. LOL.

*******************************

TCM: King Kong Opposite SOTU Speech

For background "noise," what a treat. I've never seen King Kong and here it is, on TCM, opposite the speech. And, no, I'm not watching the speech. I did not even surf through the channels to catch a glimpse.  Right now, the iconic scene with King Kong falling off the Empire State Building and Fay Wray being saved.

************************************

Making America Great Again -- Add Pfizer To The List -- January 30, 2018

This page won't be updated. It's all being tracked here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship-related decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: the list below is not all-inclusive. If there is something I missed and you want it posted, let me know. Dates given are the dates the item was posted, not necessarily the date the announcement was made.

For those who were spooked by the market today and yesterday, look at this list:

ATT: With tax reform, AT&T plans to increase U.S. capital spending $1 billion and provide $1,000 special bonus to more than 200,000 U.S. employees. January 30, 2018.

Pfizer announces that it will increase CAPEX manufacturing by $5 billion in the US, specifically citing the new tax law. The drugmaker will pay a tax of $15 billion on overseas profits over the next eight years. It's too bad we don't have a fair and balanced mainstream media to really talk about all these investments in a fair and balanced manner. 

Exxon: to spend $50 billion in US over next five years. Cites tax bill; huge bonuses reported by glassdoor.January 29, 2018.

FedEx: increased compensation to hourly employees; performance-basedincentive plans for salaried employees. Company cited Trump's tax cuts to make this possible. January 26,2018.

Home Depot: add another company to the list -- $1,000 bonus to each employee.

Discover: raised minimum wage to $15.25 for virtually all employees; and, a $1,000 bonus to 15,000 non-salaried employees.

Solar cells; washing machines: Trump issues executive order placing 20% to 50% tariffs on washing machines; tariffs on solar cells. January 23, 2018.

Disney: to give 125,000 employees $1,000. January 23, 2018.

Verizon:  Verizon employees (other than top management) will receive 50 shares of restricted stock, the price of which will be set on February 1, 2018. January 23, 2018.

Waste Management: to give each employee a bonus of $2,000. January 13, 2018.

Fiat Chrysler: now we get this, just reported on CNBC -- will add a heavy truck manufacturing plant in Michigan; will move a Ram Heavy Duty truck manufacturing plant from Mexico to Michigan; $2,000 to every employee; will invest more than $1 billion in Michigan plant; will add 2,500 new jobs in Michigan -- all because of the Trump tax bill. NAFTA? Dead. January 11, 2018.

Walmart cites huge tax bill to increase hourly wages; one-time bonuses; better maternity/paternity leave. January 11, 2018. 

Toyota, Mazda to build $1.6 billion auto plant in Alabama. January 10, 2018.

US natural gas production to set all-time records. January 10, 2018.

Incredible jobs report: December 8, 2017. Many, many records set.

Great jobs report. November 2, 2017.

Japanese EV supplier, Denso Corp: Maryville, TN; $1 billion plant; create 1,000 jobs. October 6, 2017.

Amazon: looking for American site for "second" headquarters; will employ 50,000. Announced some weeks ago; posted September 28, 2017.

GDP: most recent estimate of 2Q17 GDP at 3.1, better than the 3.0 forecast. September 28, 2017.

Daimler: to invest $1 billion in its Tuscaloosa, AL, plant to build plug-in EVs to compete directly with Tesla's Model X. Will also build batteries. September 21, 2017.

Haribo, the Germany gummi candy manufacturer: says it will open a factory in Wisconsin down the road; August 8, 2017. Source: CNBC. 

Toyota, Mazda: joint venture announced; $1.6 billion; 4,000 employees; new US automotive assemble plant; by 2021; production, 300,000 vehicles annually; August 3, 2017

Apple, Foxconn will build in Wisconsin, 13,000 jobs initially. July 26, 2017.

LyondellBasel: largest petrochemical plant of its kind to be built near Houston; 2,500 construction jobs; $2.4 billion

Boom (link here):

Making America Great Again: Trump's first quarter (1Q17) -- boom --

• mining: +22%
• construction: +6%
• manufacturing: +5%
• finance, insurance: - 2%

At T+173, Trump has turned the economy around. Link here.

Trump's energy policy: truly, all of the above. 

Trump rally: consumer sentiment index hits 10-year record after Trump elected president; consumer sentiment index hit relative lows during Obama's presidency. Trump rally: the market has its best first half since 2013. 

Petrochemicals - plastics, staggering: story here. June 25, 2017.

BWM: announces huge investment ($600 million) in SUV plant in Spartanburg, SC; will add 1,000 more high-paying jobs.

Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia: historical in terms of deals being discussed. 

Saudi Arabia: will announce a $40 billion infrastructure investment in the US as early as this week; posted May 13, 2017.

Infosys: huge story. Indian company known for outsourcing lower cost engineers to US, now plans to open a 2,000-employee tech center in central Indiana, with another 8,000 jobs for American IT workers in other locations across the country in coming years.

VW: building a new SUV at its Chattanooga, TN, plant; also, at the same link, Dodge has just built the world's fastest street-legal production model muscle car.

Toyota: to invest $1.3 billion in Kentucky Camry plant. This should go a long way in helping a state hit hard by the war on coal. 

Samsung, LG Electronics: both to make huge investment expansions in US; directly related to Trump election.

ExxonMobil: from White House press release --  President Donald J. Trump today congratulated Exxon Mobil Corporation on its ambitious $20 billion investment program that is creating more than 45,000 construction and manufacturing jobs in the United States Gulf Coast region.

Play-Doh: after 16 years of being made outside the US, Hasbro announces that Play-Doh manufacturing will return to the US this year. February, 27, 2017.

Existing home sales: 10-year high. 

Accenture: Accenture announces plan to bring in 15,000 more US jobs. February 17, 2017. 

Boeing 787 Dreamliner, photo op: Trump to attend roll-out of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner later this week, February 14, 2017.

Bayou Bridge Pipeline, 4,000+ jobs; almost a billion dollars in new economic activity, South Louisiana, February 9, 2017.

Intel, to invest $7 billion in Arizona; employ 3,000. February 8, 2017. Intel CEO announced this from the Oval Office while meeting with President Trump. Chandler, AZ; over 10,000 people in the area will support the factory; investment over the next three to four years.

Williams, natural gas pipeline; $3 billion Atlantic Sunrise pipeline, Atlantic seaboard, approved after almost two years of delays. Approved exactly two weeks after Trump sworn in. February 4, 2017.

Lockheed: US orders 90 F-35. A single tweet from President Trump resulted in a $720 million savings on the program. Add significant number of jobs in Ft Worth, TX. February 2, 2017.

Amazon: to add 100,000 full-time jobs over next 18 months; reported on Fox Business News, February 3, 2017.

Lowe's to hire more than 45,000 seasonal workers (spring gardening). USA Today, February 2, 2017.

US Army has directed US Army Corps of Engineers to issue easement for DAPL. January 31, 2017.

Amazon.com to build its first air cargo hub. UPS is toast. January 31, 2017.

Infrastructure Priority List, top 50, nationwide, January 24, 2017.

Toyota, expands factory; adds 400 well-paying jobs at Indiana plant, CNBC, January 24, 2017.

Foxconn, $57 billion, 50,000 jobs, Pennsylvania, January 22, 2017.

Breitbart provides a list of the "Trump jobs." January 18, 2017.

Hyundai, January 17, 2017: to invest $3.1 billion in US. 

Wal-Mart, January 27, 2017: will create 10,000 jobs in nod to Trump; investment will support 24,000 construction jobs.

General Motors, announces $1 billion in new investment; could create 1,000 jobs; may be more.  Wall Street Journal.

Amazon, 100,000 jobs over next 18 months, January 12, 2017: The Washington Post. 

Toyota, Apple, January 9, 2017: both Apple and Toyota look to expand in US. 

Alibaba, January 9, 2017: to discuss with Donald Trump one million jobs in US over next five years.

US Navy: Trump will re-build US Navy to size it hasn't seen since Reagan administration.

FiatChrysler, January 8, 2017: will spend $1 billion modernizing, building in Michigan and Ohio; will add 2,000 new jobs; 

Stanley Black & Decker, January 5, 2017: makes it a point to note that the company will build a $35 million manufacturing plant in the United States in what appears to be an attempt to either a) keep PEOTUS Trump off its back; or, b) get a PEOTUS Trump endorsement. The announcement came after it was announced that Stanley B&D acquired the Craftsman "name" from Sears.

Construction spending hits 10-year high, in days after Trump elected.

Ford, January 3, 2017: cancels plans for $1.6 billion plant in Mexico; will expand in Michigan. 

Sprint, OneWeb, December 29, 2016: Trump says Sprint will bring 5,000 jobs back to US; OneWeb will create 3,000 jobs in US.

Tesla, Panasonic, NY. December 27, 2016. $256 million solar panel factory in New York.

Cao Dwang, Shanghai, to Ohio. December 22, 2016. $600-million investment; Chinese auto glass tycoon; cites high taxes and soaring labor costs at home; comes after Trump threatened to declare Beijing a currency manipulator and slap 45% punitive tariffs on Chinese imports to protect American jobs. 

Amazon, Michigan. December 20, 2016. To open distribution center in Livonia, MI, hire at least 1,000 new employees.

Amazon, Illinois. December 20, 2016. Amazon adding 1,000 jobs with two new Illinois fulfillment centers.

Nuclear, Illinois. December 17, 2016. Exelon Corp will hire more than 400 permanent employees to work on capital projects at two Illinois nuclear plants; after Illinois govern approved a plan to provide billions of dollars in subsidies to Exelon to keep the pair of unprofitable nuclear plants from closing prematurely. 

Mexican moves. December 14, 2016, Bloomberg reports that US companies are already "dampening" plans to move US jobs abroad. Not even sworn in yet, and Trump already having an impact. 

IBM: December 13, 2016, Daily Mail: 

• will hire 25,000 over next few years
• announced day before Trump meets with tech leaders
• 6,000 of those new hires in 2017

Dow Chemical Michigan. December 10, 2016, via "Breaking News":

• President-elect Trump says Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris to head American Manufacturing Council, tasked with finding ways to bring industry and manufacturing 'back to America'
• Dow Chemical will 'invest in a new state of the art manufacturing center in Michigan,' CEO Andrew Liveris announces; says decision due to President-elect Trump and his policies

Carrier, Indiana. November 29, 2016. Carrier will keep plant in Indiana. $7 million tax break / 10 years / 1,000 employees = $7000 / employee / year = $1.92 / employee / day. Starbucks: $2.11 for least expensive cup of black coffee. Even if the 1,000 employee-number is inflated, one has to appreciate the PEOTUS for getting involved. Previously posted.

Ford. November 18, will not move some production to Mexico; calls PEOTUS.

And, yes, the twitter hashtag is already there: #TrumpJobs. Mostly an anti-Trump site but that will change. 

Painfully Slow -- Exxon's Development In The Permian -- January 30, 2018

Updates

January 31, 2018: see update here. 

Original Post

It has been reported multiple places that ExxonMobil will increase daily production in the Permian significantly. 

Somehow, I wasn't paying attention -- not until I saw the Financial Times headline regarding this story:  Exxon plans fivefold rise in Permian Basin shale oil production.

It's being reported that Exxon will increase production to 500,000 bopd by 2025.  I assume "fivefold" means that currently Exxon is producing a paltry 100,000 bopd. Let's see: ... .... look ... look some more ... nope, no mention of how much Exxon is producing now, but fivefold suggests 100,000 bopd currently ....

How much did Exxon pay to get into the Permian? I don't know how much Exxon's entire holdings but from the linked article:

Exxon has been building up its position in the Permian Basin with a series of acquisitions, including a deal a year ago to buy drilling rights on 250,000 acres from the Bass family for up to $6.6bn. 

I'm not going to go through the numbers but it certainly seems that operators in the Bakken got to 500,000 bopd and then 1 million bopd a lot faster than seven years.

For a company like Exxon, going from 100,000 bopd to 500,000 bopd in seven years in a basin as good as the Permian seems painfully slow based on what I saw in the Bakken.

But readers know I am incredibly biased about the Bakken.

Idle chatter.

Having said that, this has to be incredibly bad news for Saudi Arabia. One company, Exxon in this case, will be producing almost half what the Bakken is producing. And that's just one operator.

***************************************

Pennsylvania Apparently Loves The Production/Extraction/Tax Revenue

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is taking steps to speed up the granting of oil and gas permits. The state of New York still bans fracking.

***************************************

Pfizer: Making America Great Again

On the day/night that President Trump gives his first SOTU address, Pfizer announces that it will increase CAPEX manufacturing by $5 billion in the US, specifically citing the new tax law. The drugmaker will pay a tax of $15 billion on overseas profits over the next eight years. It's too bad we don't have a fair and balanced mainstream media to really talk about all these investments in a fair and balanced manner.

WTI Sinks Below $64; Rigs Hold Stead At 57; Five Producing Wells Reported As Completed -- January 30, 2018

Active rigs:

$63.99↓↓↓	1/30/2018	01/30/2017	01/30/2016	01/30/2015	01/30/2014
Active Rigs	57	38	45	146	190

Three new permits:

• Operators: Kraken (2); Bruin E&P
• Fields: Winner (Williams); Pembroke (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 24549, 731, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-34D-27-1H, Little Knife, t12/17; cum -- 
• 29440, 13 (no typo), Murex, Johan Stephen 13-24H, Temple, t6/17; cum --
• 33404, 2,053, Whiting, Thomas 43-4H, Truax, t1/18; cum --  (#18770) (interesting array)
• 33406, 2,502, Whiting, Thomas 43-4-2H, Truax, t1/18; cum --  (#18770) (interesting array)
• 33679, 858, Zavanna, Hanson 28-33 4TFH, Stockyard Creek, t1/18; cum -- 

**************************************

The Sweater Page

 From The New York Times, the Norwegian alpine ski team:

This Seems So Long Ago -- The Atlantic Monthly's Fascination With The Bakken -- From 2016

API: weekly US crude oil inventories. Link here. Also, at this site.

• previous: 4.755 million bbls 
• forecast: 1.5 million bbls
• actual: 3.229 million bbls (almost twice forecast)
• this is a "build"; but API data, at least recent history, has been significantly different than what the EIA will report -- tomorrow, 10:30 a.m. -- but a build of 3.2 million bbls suggests that the EIA data tomorrow could come in somewhere between a draw of 1 million bbls and a build of 1 million bbls; within that range, it will not change the number of weeks to re-balance which is currently at 20 weeks. I use the EIA data to calculate weeks until US crude oil stores have "balanced"
• analysis six hours before the API data was released; this suggests me to the stronger dollar is not being offset by increased demand/less supply hopes

*********************************

Flashback: Williston, ND -- August 8, 2016

I can't recall if I linked this article from The Atlantic Monthly. Regardless, it's fun to read (for the first time) and re-read a second time to see how an East Coast magazine saw Williston back in 2016.

I will leave it to current Williston residents to compare what was written then to how things are going now. All I know is the reference to Walmart. It was reported a few days ago that two Walmart stores in North Dakota will undergo renovation. One of them is the Walmart in Williston. (The other one: Wahpeton, in southeastern North Dakota -- about as far away from the Bakken as one can get and still be in the state. It's about 30 minutes west of Fergus Falls, Minnesota, which also has a Walmart, probably the only other Walmart in the immediate area.)

I doubt Walmart, known for its "tight" spending, would be likely to re-model one of its stores if it thought the local economy was dying.

From the linked article, this will keep the riff-raff out:

The writer mentions one other boom town that succeeded: Denver, CO.

The writer failed to mention, perhaps, the greatest boom town ever that owes its success to oil: Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

The Market And Energy Page, T+9 -- January 30, 2018

Market. I am thrilled to see the market "down" today. I was starting to get concerned that folks were blindly moving the market up. Hopefully we are back to a period of volatility. It reassures me that folks are paying attention. It also provides buying opportunities. Also, I've never complained about buying inexpensive shares with automatic reinvested dividends.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship-related decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

A political note: this is the first time in eight years that we will hear a non-Democratic president deliver a SOTU address. In addition, it's been decades since a Reagan-SOTU address. My hunch is that this will be one of most-watched presidential addresses in history. Could be wrong; there will be a lot of effort to encourage folks to not watch the address. Me? I have no plans to watch the address. I quit watching the SOTU address sometime during the Bush-Obama era.

Market-SOTU: the timing for the market dropping could not come at a better time for Trump. If the market recovers tomorrow, it's going to be hard not to connect the market recovery to Trump.

ExxonMobil: from SeekingAlpha:

• Exxon Mobil says it plans to triple total daily production to more than 600K boe by 2025 from its operations in the Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico, as it attempts to fill in some details from yesterday's pledge to invest $50B in the U.S. over the next five years [to put that 600K boepd in perspective, North Dakota is producing 1.5 million boepd
• XOM - which says it has doubled its footage drilled per day on horizontal wells in the Permian Basin since early 2014 and reduced per-foot drilling costs by ~70% - expects to increase the horizontal rig count in the Permian by a further 65% over the next several years
• XOM says it plans to invest $2B to expand the recently acquired Wink crude oil terminal and add key infrastructure upgrades that will efficiently move production from the Delaware, Central and Midland basins in the Permian to its operations and other market destinations in the Gulf Coast region

ExxonMobil: huge bonuses reported by glassdoor.

**************************

Notes To The Granddaughters

I always get a kick out of the kids at Tutor Time and their Spanish lessons once or twice a week. These students are in the 3-year-old room and don't move up until they've had their fourth birthday. Sophia, on the ride into Tutor Time this morning, said she was looking forward to her birthday. It's still more than five months away.