Futures Mean Nothing, But Just The Same, I'm Not Going To Miss Tomorrow Morning's Business News -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48058INV.

Market Updates Throughout The Day
Last Trading Day of 1H24
Best half for the market since 1928

10:02 a.m. CDT: what to the world's richest men all have in common? None of them got rich in renewable energy. And "global warming" issue has been around since at least 1994 -- thirty years ago.

• Nike's worse day in 37 years -- since 1987 -- on guidance! As well as operating results;
• company went public in 1980; Black Friday, October, 1987
  
• what this tells me: investors not happy with lousy returns when they see what Nvidia, et al, are doing
• 2H24: "show me the money"
• money not in renewables or EVs

Mid-morning trade:

Original Post

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At The Open -- Friday, June 28, 2024

Dow: from negative to +200 points at the open --

Cramer:

• soft landing
• all that's left is the rent number
• these were not numbers for a "Fed rate raise"
• "summer rally" is real; "sell in May" is not;
  
• 1H24 has been best half since 1928
  

Apple: 

• Cramer can't say enough about Apple;
• at least four buy-side analysts now have AAPL in $250 - $260 range; currently trading at $215

SCCO: 

• surges -- up 2.22%; up $2.39 at the open; still off its recent highs (but doesn't matter for investors).

NIKE:

• getting crushed! Down almost 20% today. 
• worse day in 23 years
  
• life-style business decline
• performance business didn't offset
• digital weakness
• traffic in China declined
• the current CEO has been there for one year; when he came in, he made huge changes; much innovation
• street doesn't feel comfortable
  

Chicago PMI, link here:

• 47.4 vs 40.0 est -- wow
• S&P goes over 5,500 on that news
  

DOW Theory:

• Dow transports support Dow industrials

VIX:

• at 12.30; well below the "14" threshold

INTC down almost 40% in 1Q24; one of the very few disappointments in the chip sector --

Search:

• google vs reddit (pronounced "read it")
• which is better? Depends.
• politics in real time, link here:

Initial Post On An Eight-Well Enerplus Antelope-Sanish Pad West Of The Incredible CLR Salers And Salers Federal Wells -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48057ENERPLUS.

See this post.

Updating the maps.

 

 

 

We're Going To Miss the 2050 Net Zero Goals By More Than A Decade -- Bill Gates -- June 26, 2024 -- Posted June 27, 2024

Locator: 48056GATES.

Cognitive dissonance:

• being hysterical / alarmist by 1.5°C increase in global temperature;
• not being hysterical / alarmist by the fact that AI will use unprecedented amount of electricity.

Bill Gates, speaking in London, about the huge amount of energy that large data centers (LDCs, hyperscalers) will use, Bill Gates had this to say:

"... by more than a decade." 

" ... more than a decade." Wow, if that doesn't get your attention, nothing will. That gets us closer to 2100 than 2000.

In terms of "green energy/renewable energy," Bill Gates and Warren Buffett would agree that nuclear energy falls into that category; and that, nuclear energy will be needed for the amount of electricity that will be required. 

It's interesting then, that, at least in the linked article above, there is no indication that Bill Gates mentioned nuclear energy. My hunch: speaking in London, the audience was not necessarily very pro-nuclear. If there is something the Brits seem to hate more than BIG Oil, it's nuclear power. 

I probably would have ignored the article except for its timing. I came across the article having just posted the "original note" earlier today.

I think it's fascinating.

By the way, that goal of net zero?

By the way, the roadmap to "net zero by 2050" makes these assumptions: 

".... electrification emerges as a crucial economy-wide tool for reducing emissions. Electric vehicles go from around 5% of global car sales to more than 60%by 2030."

"Our pathway calls for scaling up solar and wind rapidly this decade (2020s) .. this is equivalent to installing the world's largest solar park roughly every day."

Exactly from where does all that "land" for placing solar panels come.  

This is from the IEA; this is from the 2021 revision, well before anyone had any idea about the large amount of electricity large data centers / hyperscalers would need.

Is anybody reading this stuff? LOL.

Global consumption: link here. Very, very nice interactive chart.

Posted earlier: 

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Renewable Energy Losing Its Halo

The big story today: how fast renewable energy has fallen out of favor. Note that even the "big guys" are now talking modular nuclear 'cause they know solar and wind ain't gonna cut it. And, if lucky, they will see return on investment in eight to ten years. Meanwhile, the mom-and-pop, Cramer home-gamers are seeing huge returns in legacy oil and tech.

Dan agrees: link here.

BP halts hiring, slows renewable energy rollout. Link here. Remember: BP had taken the lead a decade ago. Investors not impressed. HALTS hiring for renewable programs. My hunch: the "rest" of the market is spooked by "Nvidia." Investors now have something else in which to invest, and it's now renewable energy.

Europe stepping back on renewables: link here.

Modular nuclear: Bill Gates, Warren Buffett. Hope to see returns in eight to ten years. Link here. Many other links. This article is already three years old -- any returns yet? Any dirt being moved yet? I don't know.

Is It Time For Biden To Announce Another SPR Release? WTI Trending Toward $82 On Surprice Jump In Price -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48055B.

Near the close, WTI is trading up 1.26%; trading up $1.02 and now trading at $81.92.

Investors in publicly traded E&P companies seem unaware. 

***********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.92.

Active rigs: 37.

Four new permits, #40878 - #40881, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Phoenix Operating
• Fields: Arnegard (McKenzie); Burg (Divide)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for three Bitterroot wells, lot 2, section 30-150-100; 
• to be sited between 1980 FNL and 2040 FNL and between 581 FWL and 660 FWL;
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Jacobson well, NENW 19-159-98, 
• to be sited 310 FNL and 2152 FWL

Two permits canceled:

• Crescent Point, #39732 and #39733, a CPEUSC Suitor permit and a CPEUSC Getzlaf permit, Williams County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40120, 322, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
• 40122, 415, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;

For The Archives -- Military Retirement Pay -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48054TAXES.

Link here.

Thirty-three states don't tax military pensions. One would have to be almost blind for a military retiree to pick one of the seventeen other states. LOL.

I can't think of anything these seven states have in common with each other except their apparent aversion for military veterans. The vast majority of military veterans have very little pension income. Most have none. On top of that, the percent of military veterans that would choose to live in Rhode Island or Vermont would seem to be negligible. 

Now social security, link here.

Wow, the following states show up on both lists:

• Montana
• Rhode Island
• Utah
• Vermont

For The Archives -- BWM EV -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48053EVS.

Link here.

Several story lines here. Maybe I will come back to this some day. Story lines:

• as an investment;
• the weight of EVs;
• luxury car buyers.

Analysts' Pick: Half-Time Report -- Cleveland-Cliffs And Intel -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48052INV.

I'm confused. Why are two "talking heads" on CNBC's "Half-Time Report" not talking about "tax-loss harvesting"? These two analysts each have a different favorite.  Just think, a month ago, they could have helped out the mom-and-pop retail investor by advising to do so some tax loss harvesting.

CLF down nearly 30% in six months:

INTC down forty percent in past six months.

The "Aha!" Light Bulb Just Turned On -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48051B.

Mom-and pop retail investors, hedge fund investors, Wall Street analysts finally have something other than renewable energy to get their attention: "Nvidia." 

In this case, "Nvidia" is being used as a metonym" for tech. 

It's very possible that some years from now it will be widely felt that the demise of the renewable energy was due to many, many, many factors, but the tipping point was "Nvidia." 

So, put your marker on "2024" as the year we started to see the beginning of the end for renewable energy on a major scale. 

Seriously, if given the opportunity to invest $1,000 today, would you put it in SolarEdge or Nvidia?

Big Story Today: How Fast Renewable Energy Has Fallen Out Of Favor -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48050LNG.

Tag: electricity, renewables.

LNG: Venture Global -- mentioned many, many times on the blog.  Now, today:

Indian Oil: to triple LNG imports by 2030. Link here. From 7.8 MTPA currently to 20 MTPA.

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Renewable Energy Losing Its Halo

The big story today: how fast renewable energy has fallen out of favor. Note that even the "big guys" are now talking modular nuclear 'cause they know solar and wind ain't gonna cut it. And, if lucky, they will see return on investment in eight to ten years. Meanwhile, the mom-and-pop, Cramer home-gamers are seeing huge returns in legacy oil and tech.

EPA on notice: link here.

Dan agrees: link here.

BP halts hiring, slows renewable energy rollout. Link here. Remember: BP had taken the lead a decade ago. Investors not impressed. HALTS hiring for renewable programs. My hunch: the "rest" of the market is spooked by "Nvidia." Investors now have something else in which to invest, and it's now renewable energy.

Europe stepping back on renewables: link here.

Modular nuclear: Bill Gates, Warren Buffett. Hope to see returns in eight to ten years. Link here. Many other links. This article is already three years old -- any returns yet? Any dirt being moved yet? I don't know.

Best Hour Of The Day Begins — Cramer On CNBC — June 27, 2024

Locator: 48049INV.

Poolside. 82° at 8:00 a.m. Should trend toward 100° by late afternoon. Beautiful breeze. 

Groundhog Day: From yesterday. I will update later when I’m back on the laptop. Currently on the iPad.

Cramer:

Walgreens facing existential issue. Brings up something I had forgotten about. To buy a Mach 5 razor one has to find a sales associate to come unlock the display. Walgreens down 22% in pre-trading this morning. Too many unprofitable stores. CEO needs to close unprofitable stores. Needs to completely reorganize aisles and front of store. And that still may not be enough.

Levi Strauss down almost 20% in pre-market trading. Cramer strongly “disagrees.”

AAPL opens up an outstanding $1.66 / share. Secret sauce: services. Now, +$2.21.

SpaceX valuation!

Cramer: the number of “pearls” he drops is amazing. His first hour is so much better than his afternoon show. Carl Q., Cramer, David Faber, truly amazing.

Holy mackerel: did all three indices just turn green?

Second hour: Sara Eisen and David Faber join Carl Q.

Autos: prices of used cars dropping quickly. New car prices to follow. Tom Lee.

Energy returns under Biden: cognitive dissonance.

SEC: huge loss before US Supreme Court. Wow. 6 - 3. Loss for Biden. Sotomayor in deep disagreement. Silly. Clearly a win for democracy. Bureaucrats cut off at the knees. Kagan, Jackson, and Sotomayor like the bureaucracy as is.

EPA also put on notice: link here. And, here.

*************************
Baking School This Morning

Chocolate trifle:

This will be dessert for this evening's meal.

Sophia will be grilling salmon for dinner.

Investing 101 -- Energy -- Thursday, June 27, 2024

Locator: 48048B.

Hyperscaler drinking game continues. First: GE Vernova CEO  says “hyperscalar” at 7:54 a.m. CDT.

Cost basis: I imagine my cost basis on my energy investments are so close to zero it makes no sense but to leave them alone.

Investing: big investors are "doubling down" on oil and gas stocks. Oilprice. Most recent: Warren Buffett buys more OXY.

RBN Energy: E&Ps sustain sector-leading dividend yields despite lower cash flows.

After thoroughly alienating their investor base over more than two decades of boom-and-bust cycles, U.S. E&Ps won investors back in the early 2020s by radically transforming themselves from high-risk to high-yield vehicles. Fueled by surging crude oil and natural gas prices in 2022, producers generated massive free cash flows — and spectacular shareholder returns that topped 10% during the late-2022 peak. Prices and cash flows subsequently retreated, however, and skeptics worried about the sustainability of producers’ high-return strategy. Would debt repayment, dividends and share buybacks sink? In today’s RBN blog, we‘ll review the Q1 2024 cash allocation of the major U.S. E&Ps with a spotlight on current dividend yields.

From RAWenergy this a.m. Link here. Oh, it links back to RBN Energy. Okay.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.   

Another Busy Day -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48047B.

Amazon: very seldom do I buy something from Amazon because I need it immediately. 

I almost never care if it arrives in one, two, or five days. Despite that, Amazon keeps surprising me. In our apartment complex, Amazon Prime vans are seen throughout the day, but historically most have been between 10:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. But now, it seems deliveries are almost 24/7, around the clock. I ordered a number of items last night about 8:00 p.m. expecting them to arrive tomorrow. In fact, they were at my door today before 7:00 a.m. Arriving even before I got out of bed.

Cramer mentioned CVS, Walgreens yesterday with regard to Amazon. He's exactly right. Folks can order last-minute items while still at work and find their purchase at their doorstep when they get home No longer do folks have to stop at the drugstore on the way home from work.

Comments by CEO of Walgreens yesterday reflect that. But that's only part of the problem facing Walgreens, CVS.

LNG: still seems to be the biggest energy story. So many articles -- the article coming out of India today may be the most amazing.

Trans Mountain Pipeline: the western Canadian pipeline? Won't turn a profit for eight. years.

EVs: buyer remorse? New survey being posted across many sites. In line with what I'm seeing. Luxury car owners love EVs; blue collar types, not so much. 

EVs: really, really, really heavy. We'll talk about the new BMW later.

ERCOT: will break all-time records in June, July (2024).

Investing: big investors are "doubling down" on oil and gas stocks. Oilprice. Most recent: Warren Buffett buys more OXY.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: nice move overnight ... up 0.66% ---- trading at $81.43.

Sunday, June 30, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
None.

Saturday, June 29, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
None.

Friday, June 28, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
None.

Thursday, June 27, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
39517, conf, Hunt Oil, Smoky Butte 160-100-33-28H 2,
39516, conf, Hunt Oil, Smoky Butte 160-100-33-28H 1, 

RBN Energy: E&Ps sustain sector-leading dividend yields despite lower cash flows.

After thoroughly alienating their investor base over more than two decades of boom-and-bust cycles, U.S. E&Ps won investors back in the early 2020s by radically transforming themselves from high-risk to high-yield vehicles. Fueled by surging crude oil and natural gas prices in 2022, producers generated massive free cash flows — and spectacular shareholder returns that topped 10% during the late-2022 peak. Prices and cash flows subsequently retreated, however, and skeptics worried about the sustainability of producers’ high-return strategy. Would debt repayment, dividends and share buybacks sink? In today’s RBN blog, we‘ll review the Q1 2024 cash allocation of the major U.S. E&Ps with a spotlight on current dividend yields.