Week 18: May 1, 2022 -- May 7, 2022

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.
• Most volatile stock market ever.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Putin's War in its tenth to twelfth week.
• Saudi Arabia is big winner.
  

Top international energy story:

• US Senate committee votes to recommend NOPEC bill.
• Crude oil super cycle beginning. 
• Russian oil sector update.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Boeing to exit Chicago; move to Washington (DC).
• Ford and Amazon get crushed by Rivian.
• ATLIS: another Rivian wannabe.
  

Top national energy story:

• Biden already talking about re-filling the SPR. And, here.
• Natural gas hits $8; later $9; trending toward $10.
• Buffett -- CVX. And, here.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• GTL Cerilon update.

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators:

• CLR starting to report more Charolais South Federal wells. 
• EOG declares a special dividend of $1.80 on top of regular dividend of 75 cents; total dividends paid this quarter could fund 150 wells. 
• MPC posts impressive profit, a refiner.
• Update on Oasis - Whiting merger.
  

Operations:

• The incredible Baily oil field.
• The Peregrine wells south of Williston.
  

Wells:

• An XTO Bear Creek well drilled five years ago hits 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.
• An old Zavanna Nelson well just posted 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.
• Halo effect: a Petro-Hunt well approaching one million bbls crude oil cumulative.
• Halo effect: a Petro-Hunt well approaching two million bbls crude oil cumulative.
• Murex's Angie Marie well just hit 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.
• Ovintiv reports a monster well. 
• CLR's Kukla well: halo effect.
• An Enerplus Fort Berthold well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.
• A Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust well has just gone over 500K bbls crude ol cumulative.
• An EOG Wayzetta well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.
• An Oasis Wilson Federal well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative.
  

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Refining:

• Refiners operating at less than 90% operating capacity.

Natural gas:

• Update: LNG export terminals.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

• Sweden's Covid-19 meme.
• "Killing the Keystone" meme.
• Spare capacity? What spare capacity?
• The s**t hits the fan in July.

Kraken With One New Permit; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 6, 2022

Active rigs:

$109.80	5/6/2022	05/06/2021	05/06/2020	05/06/2019	05/06/2018
Active Rigs	39	17	22	62	62

One new permit, #38934 --

• Operator: Kraken
• Field: Burg (Williams)
• Comments:
• Kraken has a permit for a Claire Rose section line well on lot 4 section 5-158-99; 
• to be sited 349 FNL and 948 FWL

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38300, 1,791, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-20HLW, Westberg, see below;
  
• 38418, 1,216, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-90-20-17-6H, South Tobacco Garden, see below;
  
• 38419, 973, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-20-17-7H, South Tobacco Garden, see below;

*******************************
Production

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38300, 1,791, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-20HLW, Westberg,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	28	2305	2494	6179	20101	20011	90
BAKKEN	2-2022	27	28573	28768	32439	71396	71396	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	41192	41140	52217	100885	100885	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	43076	43059	61139	96683	96523	160
BAKKEN	11-2021	8	10482	10141	11716	23001	22902	99

• 38418, 1,216, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-90-20-17-6H, South Tobacco Garden,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	24157	24092	31590	38079	38079	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	20963	20987	33191	29876	29876	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	28	24974	24795	43883	36830	36830	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	31339	31375	58850	45501	45194	307
BAKKEN	11-2021	2	737	466	0	861	852	0

• 38419, 973, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-20-17-7H, South Tobacco Garden,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	19171	19156	33506	49164	49164	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	18583	18562	33933	38526	38526	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	29	19584	19413	42154	34256	34256	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	20451	20634	59082	34197	33967	230
BAKKEN	11-2021	3	918	581	802	1084	1073	0

Rivian: The Canary In The Coal Mine -- May 6, 2022

Link here.

Rivian ticker:

An XTO Bear Creek Well Drilled Five Years Ago Hits 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- May 6, 2022

The way I look at these things, the natural gas sales from these wells now pay for all the administrative costs; on-going maintenance / operational costs; taxes; of these huge wells -- remember, it costs about the same for a lousy well as a great well -- with the crude oil sales pretty much all free cash flow. But that's just me.

At one time, Bear Creek held the record for the best producing field in the Bakken. 

The well:

• 32753, 2,556, XTO, Bear Creek Federal 31X-3C, Bear Creek, API 33-025-03161, t10/17; cum 492K bbls oil; cum 1,048,397 MCF natural gas; which I guess works out to about 175K boe; recent production -- 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	3120	2902	4783	14931	14862	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	17	1130	1195	2441	7186	7147	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	27	1744	1614	3006	15133	15038	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	12	348	474	688	3632	3491	114
BAKKEN	11-2021	29	2563	2650	4080	23049	22161	800
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	3559	3483	5229	28253	26980	1165
BAKKEN	9-2021	21	2607	2586	4256	18032	17250	729
BAKKEN	8-2021	25	2692	2743	4045	24006	23334	616
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	4002	4048	5413	32041	25420	6527
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	4122	4101	5097	29996	23658	6217
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	4313	4370	5504	29994	25346	4532
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	4471	4582	6178	35393	29116	6141
BAKKEN	3-2021	29	5677	5473	5786	30899	26178	4598
BAKKEN	2-2021	26	4440	4466	4837	21736	16141	5510
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	5650	5691	6818	21897	15272	6527
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	5905	5939	5931	25203	21251	3796
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	6065	6001	5528	27809	19187	8463
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	6798	6839	6667	30959	9900	20919
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	7737	7839	7275	31003	10162	20745
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	8024	7902	6707	24071	19600	4376
BAKKEN	7-2020	25	5506	6044	4921	13017	8198	4772
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	6213	6014	6630	13562	13307	13

The Field That Keeps On Giving -- MRO With Another Incredible Well In Bailey Oil Field -- May 6, 2022

The Bailey oil field is tracked elsewhere. 

The well:

• 38087, drl/drl, MRO, Weidner USA 31-4TFH, Bailey, API: 33-025-04151, first production, 2/22; t--; cum 83K in 57 days --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	47004	46928	41161	47004	43350	2405
BAKKEN	2-2022	26	36327	36330	40363	34266	33261	0

An Old Zavanna Nelson Well Just Posted 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- May 6, 2022

The well:

• 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, t8/12; cum 500K 3/22; ready for a re-frack or a workover. Still flaring after all these years.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	761	727	3332	28432	27188	782
BAKKEN	2-2022	27	506	545	3046	25581	24814	350
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	654	661	3156	28598	27374	762
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	787	808	2261	28681	27520	699
BAKKEN	11-2021	29	870	817	2601	26699	26267	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	871	902	2650	28941	28478	1
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	1069	1478	3000	27530	27083	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1596	1608	2944	29144	28682	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1598	1245	3356	29874	29380	32
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1799	1742	2891	28637	27815	375
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1194	1204	2992	28587	28088	37

Halo Effect And Approaching One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- May 6, 2022

The well, drilled fifteen years ago -- what was Hubbert's peak oil theory, again?

• 16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson, t7/07; cum 946K 3/22; recent production --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	30430	30381	10061	60390	41662	16932
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	26551	26758	9101	50098	40009	8110
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	29803	29600	10621	52969	34558	10992
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	27423	27543	9875	46378	29613	11296
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	26597	26570	10301	42965	25446	10082
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	21389	21309	10358	32733	20284	7206
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	22350	22367	11434	34031	20144	8703
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	23235	23138	14148	35925	20308	9981
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	25157	25367	17918	40228	18741	15300
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	13371	13188	14062	20318	12757	5327
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	14470	14523	16716	18182	13202	3630
BAKKEN	4-2021	25	11514	11390	19738	17500	7562	9764
BAKKEN	3-2021	1	85	0	2851	313	0	313
BAKKEN	2-2021	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	1	7	210	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	1	104	0	12	184	0	177
BAKKEN	8-2020	2	138	0	38	12	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	240	479	19	125	0	125
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	140	0	30	66	0	66
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	28	900	1059	348	391	0	196
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	1452	1403	626	2803	0	2593
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	1899	1949	701	2638	0	2436
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	2169	2142	740	2814	0	2598
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	2190	2220	940	3103	0	2887

Halo Effect And Approaching Two Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- May 6, 2022

This well -- look at the permit/file number -- was drilled back in 2006 -- sixteen years ago, and is now approaching two million bbls crude oil cumulative. TWO MILLION BBLS. 

The well:

• 1659, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, t10/06; cum 1.923 million bbls 3/22; and, yes, there was an obvious reason for the "halo effect" if one looks at the map; I may post the map later, but time to move on.
  

Production of note:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	11043	11006	581	20574	15309	4468
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	8676	8690	488	15192	12023	2438
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11225	11154	549	17709	11402	3715
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	12703	12702	624	19328	11331	5771
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	12293	12216	583	17906	8581	6680
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	11087	11236	3062	15603	10442	2357
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	12476	12403	1678	17227	11194	3059
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	11390	11476	1572	15902	8661	4713
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	13528	13397	1302	17875	9124	5628
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	10937	11051	3761	14801	9138	4003
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	14379	14339	3867	15486	12692	1524
BAKKEN	4-2021	25	13662	13558	5505	17961	7072	10715
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	14	5955	6309	102	8201	7866	239
BAKKEN	10-2020	1	109	0	0	143	0	142
BAKKEN	9-2020	1	269	0	53	330	0	323
BAKKEN	8-2020	2	103	0	29	12	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	117	174	88	29	0	22
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	28	3629	3722	127	7462	3454	3813
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	6393	6437	280	7374	3014	4144
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	4905	4875	327	4385	0	4183
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	5244	5270	400	4898	0	4682
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	4885	4832	603	5103	0	4887
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	3706	3813	1592	4967	0	4758
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	4726	4759	569	5103	0	4936

A well of interest in the area which has shown at least two jumps in production over the years. I may post this as a stand-alone post later. This well is three years younger than the well above.

The well:

• 17668, 1,163, Petro-Hunt, USA 3D-4-4H, Charlson, t9/09; cum 776K 3/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	4216	4163	2009	8079	1032	6764
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	5633	5711	1970	14315	2	14118
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	6941	6885	2319	15670	1	15452
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	6743	6840	2578	16731	402	15676
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	7463	7466	2742	16912	274	16124
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	8128	8150	4056	17966	0	17750
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	8814	8681	4388	16882	2763	9282
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	9383	9397	4669	17945	3712	9888
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	10719	10747	5709	20238	4156	10607
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	11018	11040	7301	19146	3902	10393
BAKKEN	5-2021	29	7900	7944	6290	12673	3585	4746
BAKKEN	4-2021	29	8716	8655	6519	13142	392	8001
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	12259	12275	8920	15465	10601	4319
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	3	159	0	1347	26	12	14
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	6	2834	3333	697	4273	4231	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	16760	17296	4297	23789	23464	109
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	1113	0	378	966	823	130
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	21	6591	7140	1323	9515	9375	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	14827	14965	3455	21081	20599	266
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	16672	16778	4261	23094	19707	3185
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	18860	18850	5080	25596	0	25380
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	19861	20322	5664	26960	0	26750
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	21654	21299	6297	29830	0	29621
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	23656	23673	6922	25886	19943	5776
BAKKEN	9-2019	23	20228	19660	6022	28038	18965	9058
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	36475	36739	6566	25384	13208	12176
BAKKEN	7-2019	7	4536	3961	5107	4753	4131	622
BAKKEN	6-2019	3	145	464	32	265	248	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1879	2048	163	2716	2485	15
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	1652	1600	220	2600	2236	155
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	2140	2447	317	3344	3128	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	27	2304	2241	427	3693	3429	76
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	2598	2589	443	4288	3993	79