Saturday, April 12, 2025

The Masters And North Dakota Honeybees -- April 12, 2025

Locator: 48467GOLF.

As I said yesterday 

The Masters: will be legendary! When golf is good, it's really good, clearly my favorite sport to watch when it's this good. 

The Masters: by many (most?) metrics, Rory McIlroy is a better golfer / has more records than Tiger Woods. Tiger is not yet eligible for the “senior tour.”  Rory is 13 years younger than Tiger Woods.

Rory: first in history to record six “three’s” in  one round. The six “three’s”: two eagles 

Bryson and Rory: final pairing. In final round tomorrow.

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Global Warming

Turkey. Link here.

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Honeybees

From The New York Times.

Nancy and Keith Budke, married 43 years, are migratory beekeepers. They produce honey with the taste of canola nectar, sweet clover and other flowers that their bees pollinate first in North Dakota, then in Texas, after being hauled there by truck, and eventually in California — if the bees make it that far and if nobody snatches them.

This season, the chances of the bees making it to California were much lower. Honeybee colonies are under siege across much of North America. And the Budkes, owners and operators of Budke Bees, a small commercial beekeeping business, know it all too well. Parasites, loss of habitat, climate change and pesticides threaten to wipe out as much as 70 percent or more of the nation’s honeybee colonies this year, potentially the most devastating loss that the nation has ever seen.

A ten-minute read. 

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The Book Page

Frank Lloyd Wright. Link here.

Not An Hour Goes By That We're Not Getting Another News Story From The White House -- Now, It's Another Military Installation -- Camp Roosevelt (?) -- April 12, 2025

Locator: 48466SOUTHERNBORDER.

The Roosevelt Reservation is a 60-foot-wide strip of land owned by the United States Federal Government along the United States side of the United States–Mexico Border in California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Federal and tribal lands make up 632 miles, or approximately 33 percent, of the nearly 2,000 milesof border. Private and state-owned lands constitute the remaining 67 percent of the border, most of which is located in the fourth state on the border with Mexico, Texas.

In 1907, Theodore Roosevelt in a Presidential Proclamation established the reservation in order to keep all public lands along the border in California, Arizona, and New Mexico "free from obstruction as a protection against the smuggling of goods between the United States and Mexico." Texas was excluded because Texas retained all public lands upon the Texas annexation and admittance as a state, much of which has been sold over the years to private parties.

Construction of the Mexico–United States border wall along the border in the states of California, Arizona, and New Mexico was expedited since the reservation reduced the need to acquire additional private property.
In April 2025, President Donald Trump released a memorandum directing the U.S. military to take control of public land on the Roosevelt Reservation to enhance security and build a border wall, citing various threats to the nation.
News:

Collapse Of A State, A Nation, An Empire -- April 12, 2025

Locator: 48465COLLAPSE.

A reader sent me a link to an article that really, really caught my attention. The link: "Taming the Ravenous Dragon," Fletch Daniels, American Thinker, April 11, 2025.

I particularly enjoyed the article because it was, for me, so incredibly timely. Among the four -- now five books -- that I'm reading about Canaan, the invention of Hebrew, and the collapse of civilization in the 12th century -- I developed my own list of "factors" that ... well, here's the note I posted earlier at another blog: 

Some thoughts based on recent readings and current events.

Collapse of a state, a nation, an empire:

  • highly bureaucratic; highly regulated;
    • European Unionization of the kingdom
  • disruption of trading patterns
    • failure to address imbalance of trade
  • loss of border integrity
  • breakdown of social order; social disorder
    • petty crime; illicit drug use
  • failure of immigrants to assimilate one's new country
    • multilingual
    • dress
    • religion
  • severe maldistribution of wealth;
  • egomaniacal leaders; grandiose delusional leaders;
    • mega-projects with little social benefit or likelihood of success
    • manned voyages to Mars; manned voyages beyond the earth's moon
    • bullet trains
  • loss of a vibrant two-party political system
    • the Californication of the US west coast
  • bad strategic decisions; losing strategic advantages for no gain
    • selling the Panama Canal to to Panama for one dollar
      • "returning the canal to Panama" -- Panama never owned the canal 
      • broke a cardinal rule in real estate
      • courts stop Trump at every opportunity
      • neither courts nor US Congress stopped Carter from selling Panama Canal for a dollar
  • misguided military spending
    • $5-million missiles to take out $5,000 drones 
    • going woke: 
      • developing algae-based jet fuel costing $126 / gallon 

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The Book Page

The Annotated Great Gatsby, on the 100th anniversary, James L. W. West III, editor, c. 2025. Released April 10, 2025. James L. W. West III is an "acclaimed" scholar of F. Scott Fitzgerald.

At one time I went through a F. Scott Fitzerald / The Great Gatsby phase. That was some years ago. I read everything on the subject given the time I had for reading. 

I have many entries regarding the same over on my literature blog. This post was the most important, the best post I did on The Great Gatsby

I ordered the annotated Great Gatsy two days ago and it arrived today. It's smaller  than I expected, based on other annotated books along the same line, but I'm not disappointed. However, compared to the annotated version of Wuthering Heights this book seems like the author was simply "checking off the box" to get this annotated version published.

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The Video Page
The Short Order Cook

Link here.

Ramblig Notes, Observations On Trump's Tariffs -- April 12, 2025

Locator: 48464TARIFFS.

Breaking news this morning: iPhone, laptops, computers will be exempt from Trump’s tariffs. Whoo-hoo! This, by the way, was telegraphed last week; can't remember if I posted that. But it was obvious it was coming.

Tariffs: see below.

US power consumption to hit record levels, this year (2025) and next (2026). Link here. Paywall. Will provide more information later.

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Tariffs

All things being equal, the US equity market could / should "explode"(on the good side) on Monday. There will be, of course, some relief selling but the general trend could be / should be "straight up." If that happens, again, the Fed (JPow) will look like a genius. 

Some observations:

  • Trump used a sledgehammer with regard to tariffs; he will now use a surgical scalpel.
    • he will target various countries / regions differently (my March Madness analogy)
    • he will target sectors
  • by region / country, tariffs now break out in two major ways
    • China
    • everyone else
  • where we stand
    • both China and the US have agreed that there is no utility in raising tariffs further;
    • tariffs on EU, UK and Asia ex China have been paused for 90 days which gives everyone time to negotiate; the US holds the better poker hand, by far
    • Canada becomes almost irrelevant in the big scheme of things
    • the big "unknown" is Mexico (energy, autos)
    • Mexico will have little affect on our stock market, but Mexico, the country, has many, many risks with regard to Trump
  • it's possible, that the "tariff story" has run its course;
  • if so, we're back to focusing on the sixth industrial revolution
  • what will oil do? Absolutely no idea: predicting the price of WTI is a fool's errand -- that has never changed; and that leads us into the next discussion: US power consumption -- which will set new records in 2025 (this year) and 2026 (next year) 
In politics, 90 days is an eternity, suggesting to some / for some that the tariff story (for investors) has run its course. With Trump, the question now becomes, what next? I still think Israel / Iran is the story to watch.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.       
  • ****************
    The Botanical Indoor Garden Page

     

    Voting Rights -- New Legislation -- April 11, 205

    Locator: 48463VOTING.

    With the new ID requirements for voting having passed the US House, my wife is now making plans for voting. 

    She will roll our firebox on a "dolly" to the voting location. In the firebox, which is incredibly heavy, she has all her important documents. 


    Every document is certified with a raised seal.

    This includes her certificate of birth and certificate of citizenship.

    She was born to a US soldier-citizen stationed in South Korea when he married a Japanese woman during the "Korean War." Her father was born in the US to an undocumented father who was deported back to Mexico "back in the day." The undocumented father was legally married to an Hispanic-American born in the US.  The undocumented grandfather could have pursued a path to citizenship --> green card --> naturalization but for unknown reasons did not pursue that option. His American wife had died by that time (when my wife's father was only five years old) so the undocumented grandfather probably had no more ties to the states, other than his one son who was being raised by Hispanic-American relatives and citizens of the United States. 

    My wife's mother, Japanese, married and moved to the US when she was eighteen years old, was also a naturalized citizen.

    With that complicated history, my wife is understandably concerned about her status. She knows she is a naturalized citizen and has all the certified documents to prove it, but in this environment, who knows?

    The New XTO Athena Wells And The Bakken -- April12, 2025

    L

    From a reader, thank you very much. A little bit of history prompted by recent posting of the XTO Athena permits. See below the fold.

    From the reader

    The new XTO Athena drill sites (3-154-96) are located in the same section as two of North Dakota's earliest attempts to find oil.
    The Big Viking well was started in 1928 about 500 feet south of the new XTO Athena sites.
    The California Company Nels Kamp #1, was a 1938 attempt was just a few hundred feet north of these new XTO locations.
    The Big Viking well only drilled to 4600 feet.
    The Nels Kamp well was the first legitimate drilling attempt in North Dakota. It went to 10,200 feet, through the Bakken and Three Forks zones but did not detect any oil or gas shows. The test was abandoned after drill pipe became stuck in the hole.
    Twelve years later, Amerada began drilling the Clarence Iverson discovery well a few miles northeast of the Kamp location.
    On April 5, 1951 [the year the blog author was born] commercial oil production began from the Devonian formation.
    Several months later, Amerada found oil in the Madison formation at the Henry Bakken well just north of Tioga. It was a geologist at this well that is credited with "naming" the Bakken zone when drilling through this section of rock.
    Previously some geologists had called this formation the Engelwood after a similar formation in Canada. The Bakken name stuck!

    What I find most amazing about this, is with very limited information, geologists "predicted" oil in this part of the world. Simply amazing. And, again, since 1951 --- 74 years of productive drilling in North Dakota.

    Of the five parameters geologists key in with regard to production ( maturity, porosity, permeability, trapping, TOC, thickness), I would argue TOC is the most important ... well, let me backtrack. 

    Of course maturity is the most important. But all things being equal, the importance of those parameters varies depending on whether the well is conventional (vertical, trapped pool) or unconventional (horizontal, shale). 

    With a trapped pool, trapping and thickness are most important. I wouldn't think maturity would be that important, again, all else being equal.

    However, with an unconventional well, there's another factor a lot of folks don't mention (actually two factors): the skill of the driller -- keeping the horizontal bore in the seam for two to three miles; and the "method" of completion / fracking / stimulation (the amount of proppant; the type of proppant).

    With unconventional drilling these importance of the various factors, in descending order: keeping the horizontal bore in the seam; amount of proppant used in fracking; and TOC. Early on in the Bakken, there was a lot of emphasis on the type of proppant (sand versus ceramics). Over time that argument seemed to fade, as economics took over (sand, cheap; ceramics, expensive) (sand, relatively abundant; ceramics, constrained).  

    Another interesting phenomenon, the Hubbert Peak Theory seems to apply to conventional drilling, but does not apply at all to unconventional drilling. In conventional drilling, once a well or a field or a basin starts to deplete, it does not recover. Completely the opposite with regard to unconventional drilling. Of course, depletion becomes a factor in unconventional drilling at some point, but re-fracking, new fracking, and improved fracking techniques will reverse a depleting trend. [By the way, never discussed -- this fact has been used by operators to their advantage with regard to tax policy, specifially the depletion allowance and designation of stripper wells.]

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    Athena Wells
    Multiple Operators Have "Athena" Wells
    Multiple Oil Fields In The Williston Basin

    From April 11, 2025, link here. Six new permits, #41799 - #41804, inclusive:

    • Operator: XTO
    • Field: Grinnell (Williams County)
    • Comments:
      • XTO has permits for six GBU Athena wells, lot 2, section 3-154-96, 
        • to be sited 1109 FNL and 2240 / 2390 FEL.

    Do not confuse with other "Athena" wells.

    From February 7, 2020, link here:

    • 22168, 358, Slawson, Athena 5-36TFH, Alger, t4/12; cum 11K 5/12; 15 stages; no ceramics mentioned; cum 157K 2/25; F;

    From July 25, 2012, link here:

    • 21408, 700, Slawson, Athena 2-36H, Alger, t4/12; cum 33K 5/12; sand frac; I did not see ceramics listed; cum 281K 2/25; F;

    Others:

    • 34841, 1,012, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 57K 10/19; 17K/month; cum 237K 2/25;
    • 22164, 693, Slawson, Athena 3-36H, Alger, 11/12; cum 13K 1/13; cum 200K 2/25; F;
    • 18712, 1,391, Slawson,  SESW 36-155N-92W, Athena 1-36H, Alger, s6/11; F; t8/11; cum 219K 8/14; cum 335K 2/25; F;

    AAPL, NVDA -- The Masters -- Saturday -- Breaking News -- April 12, 2025

     l

    Nice note from a reader overnight: some history of the Bakken. Will post that later.

    Breaking news this morning: iPhone, laptops, computers will be exempt from Trump’s tariffs. Whoo-hoo! This, by the way, was telegraphed last week; can't remember if I posted that. But it was obvious it was coming.

    Tariffs: will discuss this later. On my way to soccer with Sophia! This really is amazing (if that's the right word), link here:

    The Masters: will be legendary! When golf is good, it's really good, clearly my favorite sport to watch when it's this good. 

    Constitution pipeline: back in the news. Link here. Paywall. Will provide more information later.

    US power consumption to hit record levels, this year (2025) and next (2026). Link here. Paywall. Will provide more information later.

    Princeton: anti-Semitic agitators disrupt event. Trump will take notice. Link here.

    GOP -- the party of the working class? CNN: link here.

    *******************************
    Tariffs

    All things being equal, the US equity market could / should "explode"(on the good side) on Monday. There will be, of course, some relief selling but the general trend could be / should be "straight up." If that happens, again, the Fed (JPow) will look like a genius. 

    Some observations:

    • Trump used a sledgehammer; he will now use a surgical scalpel with regard to tariffs.
      • he will target various countries / regions differently (my March Madness analogy)
      • he will target sectors
    • by region / country, tariffs now break out in two major ways
      • China
      • everything else
    • where we stand
      • both China and the US have agreed that there is no utility in raising tariffs further;
      • tariffs on EU, UK and Asia ex China have been paused for 90 days which gives everyone time to negotiate; the US holds the better poker hand, by far
      • Canada becomes almost irrelevant in the big scheme of things
      • the big "unknown" is Mexico (energy, autos)
      • Mexico will have little affect on our stock market, but Mexico, the country, has many, many risks with regard to Trump
    • it's possible, that the "tariff story" has run its course;
    • if so, we're back to focusing on the sixth industrial revolution
    • what will oil do? Absolutely no idea: predicting the price of WTI is a fool's errand -- that has never changed; and that leads us into the next discussion: US power consumption -- which will set new records in 2025 (this year) and 2026 (next year)

      **********************************
      Disclaimer
      Brief Reminder

    • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
    • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
    • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
    • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
    • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
    • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
    • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
    • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
    • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
    • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
    • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
    • Longer version here.