Locator: 45498B.
All three tight plays: increased both oil and gas. Again, in oil, the Bakken, #1. Who-hoo.
One-on-one: compare the Permian with the Bakken. LOL.
EIA dashboards:
***********************************
Locator: 45497B.
Wow, wow, wow ... this is incredible.
Yesterday I posted this tongue-in-cheek:
Heresy: does the US need Ford, GM, or Stellantis?
Maybe not, link here.
Huge opportunity for Ford and GM to discuss with UAW plans to shut several ICE factories in the US and move EV operations to Mexico. This is not rocket science.
*******
2
Locator: 45696X.
$44 billion.
550 million twitter users.
Subscription plan planned.
"Small fee."
$44 billion / 550 million users = $80.
$80 / 24 months = one tall Pike at Starbucks.
Paid and then a continuing revenue stream.
Locator: 45695B.
Active rigs: 33.
WTI: $92.25.
Two new oil & gas permits: #40206 - #40207, inclusive.
Five permits canceled:
Three producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:
Well of interest:
Locator: 45693ECON.
Exactly what I've been seeing for quite some time: inflation down, GDP up. Whoo-hoo!
Also:
Speaking of interest rates, as noted before, companies like BRK and Apple benefiting greatly with higher rates -- link here -- for companies like Apple, the moat widens. Same for Nvidia:
************************
Gasoline
Honda Civic, 2012, filled tank today, still getting 28 mpg, combined but mostly city driving:
Locator: 45692AAPL.
Holy mackerel: AAPL is up almost $3.00 today, trading near $178. Scratch that. That was earlier. AAPL has now gained $3.28 so far today. I'm glad I'm not short AAPL. Scratch that -- AAPL is up almost $4.00 today. ARM is down 7%. Scratch that, AAPL now trading up over $4.00 / share. CNBC: "S&P 500 rebounds Monday [today] after two weeks of losses; AAPL leads the gain."
When I say Apple is so far ahead of the competition ... I'm not exaggerating. The moat widens.
Last week, Apple became the first company in the world to offer a mobile SoC made with the most advanced technology currently available—TSMC's 3nm manufacturing node.
The tech world has been eagerly anticipating this node from TSMC for several years, so hopes were high at Apple's launch that it would deliver stunning performance and efficiency.
However, Apple poured some cold water on those hopes at the keynote by stating its CPU is just 10% faster than its predecessor.
Although that number is lower than expected, the first Geekbench results are in for the A17 Pro, and it shows it is indeed quite powerful, at least in single-core performance.
A pre-release Geekbench 6 score has appeared in the benchmark's online database, and it shows the A17 Pro cranking out a score of 2,914 in single-core performance. Tom's Hardware notes that that's within 10% of the Intel Core i9-13900K and the AMD Ryzen 9 7950X, which score 3,223 and 3,172, respectively. That's impressive, considering the difference in core counts and clock speeds between the three chips.
Intel's CPU has 24 cores (8P+16E), and AMD's chip has 16 Zen 4 cores. The A17 Pro has just six: two performance and four efficiency cores.
Wow, wow, wow. Just wait until Apple - TSM crank out an A17 Pro with 48 cores. LOL.
More from the linked article:
Also, Apple's SoC tops out at 3.77GHz, with the CPUs from both Intel and AMD running at 5.8GHz and 5.7GHz.
There's also a power consumption disparity here, with both desktop chips running at 125 and 170W, while we can guess Apple's chip is sipping around 10W. Holy mackerel.
The A16 Bionic was rated at 8W, so we're just spitballing here.
Apple has increased the clock speeds of the A17 Pro compared with its 3.46GHz predecessor, so it seems like the increase in performance comes from clock speeds alone, though it's possible architectural changes are also under the hood.
Apple was not embellishing when it said it had increased CPU performance by 10%. We also owe the company an apology, as we scoffed at its remarks during the keynote about how the A17 Pro could go toe-to-toe with the fastest desktop PCs. It turns out that is indeed true, at least in single-core performance.
In multi-core tests, however, the little A17 Pro can't hold a candle to the 32-thread chips from AMD and Intel, which isn't a surprise.
The iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max phones with the A17 Pro will land on peoples' doorsteps later this week, so we're expecting an avalanche of new benchmarks shortly.
To nobody's surprise, it will likely earn the title of the world's fastest mobile chip, as it has roughly a year's head start on the entire industry in 3nm adoption. Its biggest rival, the upcoming Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, is expected to use TSMC's N4P manufacturing node, which Apple used on last year's iPhone 14 Pro.
Tech: CPUs, GPUS, cores, threads and all that jazz --
All I can say is that analysts completely misunderstood the A17 chip:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Locator: 45691STREAMING.
Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
DIS: down again today --
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Locator: 45690SLB.
With "bad news" coming out of NYC, I don't see how ABNB made the list.
But SLB? Joined at the hip with the Mideast. SLB is to OPEC+ as TSM is to AAPL.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Locator: 45689AUTOS.
Straws that break camels' backs: if the auto manufacturers don't "hold the line" on this one, they will pay dearly five years out -- pensions, healthcare --
...it's hard to believe but during the last few years of my medical career in the military, it was widely thought by the warfighting generals that the US military had turned into a healthcare organization -- that's how much healthcare benefits were costing the Pentagon. They knew the model could not be sustained, and that's why Tricare was established. For the first time ever (fact check me on this), retirees had to share in paying for health insurance.
The US military had pockets a lot deeper than the auto industry.
Pensions, healthcare? What is the average "salary" for UPS drivers with healthcare and pensions added in? $170,000 / year.
See also: the UAW strike -- an existential issue for US automakers.
From Yahoo! Finance executive editor, Brian Sozzi:
No matter the outcome in the headline-grabbing UAW vs. Big Auto strike, it's going to be very hard to make a great case to buy shares of Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) that on the surface look stupid cheap.
I mean, Ford's stock is trading on a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 6.3 times according to Yahoo Finance data. General Motors forward PE multiple clocks in a less-than-meaty 4.9 times.
The S&P 500 trades on a forward PE of 19.9 times, for a dose of perspective.
Don't be sidetracked by the relative discounts of auto stocks vs. the S&P 500, however. The automaker stocks have value trap written all over them for one super simple thesis.
Large auto makers are losing huge money on the EV transition that is essentially being forced down their throats by worldwide governments. Consider this: before any new contract with the UAW, Ford's EV unit was slated to lose $4.5 billion this year. Profits were highly unlikely in 2024, either, and who knows about 2025 or 2026.
General Motors is losing a great deal on EVs, too. That comes as the company is losing gazillions of dollars on its tinkering with autonomous vehicles via its Cruise business.
What a new UAW contract likely brings, no matter the outcome, is a much higher cost base for automakers, and probably bigger losses from EV operations. While that is unfolding, the higher wages being paid to the UAW will bite the profit margins in the gas-powered businesses from which automakers have been funding their EV roadmaps.
It's a colossal mess for investors in these stocks. A vicious circle of doom!
Not to mention average selling prices on EVs aren't holding firm. Blame Tesla and a fresh rush of lower-end models from GM and overseas automakers.
Whatever the case, EV prices are being dialed in at the same time as costs are about to surge.
"Our net takeaway is that the wage increase and lower working hours/higher headcount, if accepted as proposed, would negatively impact adjusted EBIT[operating profits] by ~$2 billion to ~$3 billion depending on the OEM, before factoring in any increase in benefits, and potential cost cuts and other offsetting actions by the OEMs," says JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman.
And what happens when a new contract is reached? The clock on another new one begins, and with it likely bringing further higher costs for the auto giants after the UAW is probably going to win this round.
I am no rocket scientist, but that cost impact estimated by Brinkman isn't fertile ground for a profit boom that lights a fire under auto stock valuations.
It's Tesla's EV game to lose.
"The clear winner in this Game of Thrones battle between the UAW vs. GM/Ford is Musk and Tesla with champagne now on ice which sits in a non-union position and its biggest potential EV 313 competitors now face mounting costs/complexities in the years ahead depending on how this ultimately plays out," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives says.
In the end, it may just be the UAW that funds the next huge acquisition by Tesla's Elon Musk. And should that deal cross the newswires, best believe it would come alongside a lot of red ink at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.
Locator: 45688B.
Holy mackerel: AAPL is up almost $3.00 today, trading near $178.
All I can say is that analysts completely misunderstood the A17 chip:
The best of the best: link here.
Ads: guess what AAPL is advertising heavily today -- Apple iPhone 14. Yup. Not kidding. Because the low end iPhone 15 has the same chips as the high end iPhone 14. Wow.
Apple link of the day: among the gazillion Apple stories today, this is probably the best for investors -- over at digiday.
Morgan Stanley surprised: link here. See also this post and several more in the past few days.
Some suggesting AAPL could move quickly from $180 to $240. A reminder:
Apple is having another great day -- in early morning trading -- and another Apple supplier may be ready to take advantage of this. Link here.
Apple:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Locator: 45688B.
Wind sucks: literally and figuratively. Link here.
Trans Mountain Pipeline route change? Link here. Also at Reuters. I'm not gonna say this pipeline is dead ... but ... "death by a thousand paper cuts comes to mind." The indigenous saying: "A blanket with a thousand holes is no blanket."
WMB not interested in companies being pursued by ENB. Link here.
*************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $91.44.
Tuesday, September 19, 2023: 97 for the month; 299 for the quarter, 544 for the year
39558, conf, CLR, Fuller 11-2H1,
34033, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 21-16 163-91-B,
34026, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91D,
34025, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91 B,
21535, conf, Formentera Operations, Tafelmeyer C-3625-6490,
Monday, September 18, 2023: 92 for the month; 294 for the quarter, 539 for the year
39620, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 2-19-18-158N-100W-MBH,
39065, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-LE-158-94-1819H-1,
Sunday, September 17, 2023: 90 for the month; 292 for the quarter, 537 for the year
39559, conf, CLR, Fuller 12-2HSL,
39028, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-3MBH,
RNB Energy: has the natural gas market averted an injection season meltdown?
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt natural gas futures prices have been relatively rangebound this injection season and have averaged around $2.60/MMBtu since June — a third or less of where prices stood during the same period last year, in the $7-$9/MMBtu range, and at or below most natural gas producers’ breakeven costs. Yet, this is a much rosier scenario than it could have been considering that the first quarter of 2023 was one of the most bearish in over a decade and led to a massive storage surplus vs. last year that persisted through much of the summer. Since setting the year-to-date monthly average low of $2.19/MMBtu in April, prompt futures rose to an average of nearly $2.50/MMBtu in June, ~$2.65/MMBtu in July and August, and have mostly stayed in the $2.50-$2.75 range in September to date. In today’s RBN blog, we break down the factors that kept prices from unraveling this injection season to date and the implications for the rest of the shoulder season.
Locator: 45687HURRICANES.
Links everywhere.
Another dud, but the NHC still makes sure we are all aware that this is #14 (Nigel) in a very, very busy hurricane season, perhaps unprecedented in the number of hurricanes so far this season. And way more to come.
I probably shouldn't "tempt" Mother Nature. LOL.
Margot was also a non-story. Except for the “Barbie” movie.
Locator: 45686FRACKING.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
