Abraxas WIth Six New Permits, North Fork -- June 19, 2019

Abraxas has permits for a 6-well Jore Fed pad in section 35-150-97, North Fork oil field in today's daily activity report: SESW 35-150N-97W:

• 36607, Sten Rav 2H
• 36608, Jore Maddy Fed 2H
• 36609, Jore Maddy Fed 1H
• 36610, Jore Fed 9H,
• 36611, Jore Fed 10H,
• 36612, Jore Fed 11H, 

The pad is about 1400 feet from the south line, and 1600 feet from the west line, section 35-150-97.

Producing wells already in that area:

• 26882, 1,473, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-7H, North Fork, t9/14; cum 217K 4/19;
• 26883, 1,594, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-6H, North Fork, t9/14; cum 235K 4/19;
• 26884, 1,395, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-5H, North Fork, t8/14; cum 267K 4/19;
• 26885, 1,141, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-4H, North Fork, t10/14; cum 329K 4/19;

Eleven New Permits -- June 19, 2019 -- Juneteenth -- Official Texas Holiday

Active rigs:

$53.73	6/19/2019	06/19/2018	06/19/2017	06/19/2016	06/19/2015
Active Rigs	62	61	56	28	77

Eleven new permits:

• Operators: Abraxas, BR, MRO
• Fields: North Fork (McKenzie County); Elidah (McKenzie); Murphy Creek (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Abraxas has permits for a 6-well Jore Fed pad in section 35-150-97, North Fork oil field
• BR has permits for a 4-well Sandie/Shafer pad in section 21-151-97, Elidah oil field
• MRO: a permit for a single Easton well in section 21-144-96, Murphy Creek

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 33058, 1,581, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5H, Lost Bridge, t4/19; cum 59K after 47 days;
• 33060, 1,054, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5G2, Lost Bridge, t4/19; cum 37K after 41 days;
• 33059, 1,380, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, t4/19; cum 47K after 43 days;
• 33062, 845, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5FXG, Lost Bridge, t4/19; cum 21K after 36 days;
• 33061, 1,438, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5C, Lost Bridge, t4/19; cum 41K after 42 days;
• neighboring wells:
• 19566, huge jump in production; 33-025-01166; a small re-frack, early 2018;
• 18039, huge jump in production; 33-025-00915; also, a small re-frack, 2 million lbs sand;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
33058, 1,581, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5H,
33060, 1,054, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5G2,
33059, 1,380, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D,
33062, 845, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5XG,
33061, 1,438, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5C,

Solar Cycles And Parisian Scooters -- June 19, 2019

Enquiring minds want to know: why is this "solar cycle 24?" From wiki:

Solar Cycle 24 is the 24th solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.

It is the current solar cycle, and began in December 2008 with a smoothed minimum of 2.2 (SIDC formula). Activity was minimal until early 2010.

It reached its maximum in April 2014 with a 23 months smoothed sunspot number of only 81.8, comparable to those of cycles 12 through 15. Reversed polarity polar active sunspot regions in December 2016, April 2018, and November 2018 indicate that a transitional phase to solar cycle 25 is in process.

The most recent update, March, 2019:

NOAA reported that the number of sunspots was the lowest since 2009, and that recent activity matched that of the low activity in 2007 and 2008.

Should this prove to be the solar minimum, Solar Cycle 24 would uniquely become a short (10 year) and weak cycle. Sunspots were observed on only 5 days that month.

Uniquely?

1755: famous 18th century astronomers ..  we can start with these --

• William Herschel. 15 November 1738. German, British.
• Pierre-Simon Laplace. 23 March 1749.
• Benjamin Banneker. 09 November 1731.
• Edmond Halley. 08 November 1656.
• Mikhail Lomonosov. 19 November 1711.
• Anders Celsius. 27 November 1701.
• Caroline Herschel. 16 March 1750.
• Charles Messier. 26 June 1730.

Solar cycle 1: 1755 - 1766. From wiki --

Cycle #1 was discovered by Johann Rudolph Wolf who, inspired by the discovery of the solar cycle by Heinrich Schwabe in 1843, collected all available sunspot observations going back to the first telescopic observations by Galileo. He was able to improve Schwabe's estimate of the mean length of the cycle from about a decade to 11.11 years.

However, he could not find enough observations before 1755 to reliably identify cycles, hence the 1755–1766 cycle is conventionally numbered as cycle #1. 

Wolf published his results in 1852.

Samuel Heinrich Schwabe (25 October 1789 – 11 April 1875) was a German astronomer remembered for his work on sunspots.

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Exploring Paris

The granddaughters found the perfect way to explore Paris.

They will never want to return home! Sophia who has just learned how much fun her Razor scooter is will be very envious when she sees these photos.

Minor Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- June 19, 2019

Updates

Later, 8:59 p.m. CT: from NewsMax, May 13, 2019 --

It appears that Iceland won’t have to be renamed Tepidlandia anytime soon after all.

According to researchers at the University of Iceland, each of the country’s glaciers will expand this year for the first time in the past 25 years.

As reported in Electroverse, the Hofsjökull, Langjökull, Mýrdalsjökull, and Vatnajökull glaciers have expanded over the last twelve months, from autumn to autumn, "With Mýrdalsjökull showing a really significant addition of ice this year."

These are the largest glaciers in Iceland: Hofsjökull is third largest after Vatnajökull and Langjökull, while Mýrdalsjökull is the country’s fourth largest ice cap.

The research study project manager, Finnur Pálsson, observed that he regarded the reversal to be "unusual."

He noted that Langjökull had been losing around one and a half meters of ice per year for the past 20 years, "but in the last few years he has been close to zero, that is, he has neither expanded nor diminished. And that applies to this year, both for Vatnajökull and Langjökull as well."

Read Newsmax: Growing Iceland, Greenland Glaciers Makes Scientists Gasp | Newsmax.com

Original Post

Major Greenland glacier growing: data points -- this is from NASA, and if you can't believe NASA who can you believe?

• Jakobshavn Glacier in western Greenland
• world's fastest-moving glacier
• one of the most active; discharging a tremendous amount of ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet -- with implications for sea level rise
• the glacier has spent decades in retreat -- but between 2016 and 2017, an unexpected advance (as in growing -- for Occasional-Cortex) -- this would correlate with Solar Cycle 24
• in addition to growing toward the ocean (again, as in "getting bigger"), it is also slowing and thickening (as in "getting bigger")
• new data collected in March, 2019, just a couple of months ago, confirms that the glacier has grown for the third year in a row
• how is that possible? scientists attribute the change to cool ocean waters
• much more at the link
• public school teachers in the US will not discuss this at risk of losing their jobs
• by the way: "havn" is "haven" for "harbor," as in safe haven --

Solar Cycle 24 ending; solar cycle 25 beginning -- changeover during the 2019 - 2021 time-frame;

• cycle 24: sun less active than "normal' -- less sunspot activity; cooler solar system
• cycle 25: scientists predict the next cycle to be similar to cycle 24; I have no idea how scientists can forecast solar activity; my hunch: they read the Farmers' Almanac

Speaking of NASA: I hear Occasional-Cortex wants to put a man on the Sun by the end of the decade. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Iran: the tanker that waited three weeks to discharge an oil cargo at the Sicilian port of Milazzo has left the terminal after Italy's Eni rejected the shipment because of quality concerns. Italian press alleged the crude could be from Iran.

The ship’s documents show that the cargo, which Eni bought from the trading arm of Nigeria’s Oando PLC, was Iraqi, an Eni spokesman said. Instead, it had properties which were consistent with Iranian crude, a person familiar with the matter said.

Investing: with a photo of the Phillips 66 logo, this headline -- "dividend stocks, hot this year, may get even hotter thanks to the Federal Reserve. Story here.

Dow: up 38 points.

Zacks: five energy and oil stocks to buy amid industry uncertainty.

• CVX: I find this so interesting; for years, CVX was the "dog" among the group; XOM was always favored; with a P/E of 17, pays just less than 4%; price appreciation is forecast for a 14% gain within twelve months;
• EPD: ranks #1 by Zacks (strong buy); with a P/E of 14, pays over 6%; price appreciation is forecast for a 20% gain within twelve months;
• Equitrans Midstream (ETRN): also ranks #1
• Ecopetrol SA (EC): ranks #2. I had not heard of this one -- based in Colombia; major petrol company in South America
• Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD): has popped up on many, many lists over the past few months (years?)

Yahoo financial analysts: "They will know tomorrow why yesterday's forecasts did not happen today."

Weekly US Crude Oil Inventories Down 3 Million Bbls -- June 19, 2019

EIA weekly petroleum report: released.

• weekly crude oil change: decreased by 3.1 million bbls
• WTI: down 45 cents; trading at $53.70
• weekly crude oil inventories: 482.4 million bbls; 7% above the 5-year average
• refineries operating at capacity: 93.9% (trending up; this is about where this metric should be. Finally.)
• imports: down by 144,000 bopd; crude oil imports are down about 8% for the past four weeks compared to same period last year
• jet fuel: up over 5% compared with same four-week period last year
• from twitter
• fourth consecutive week, crude oil exports exceeded 3 million bopd

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4

Weekly US Crude Oil Inventories Down 3 Million Bbls; Hess Reports A Nice Well -- June 19, 2019

Graphic of the day: it's getting more and more difficult to sort out parent-child wells. Example:

Suitable for framing: I plan to print that, enlarge it to an 8x10, and hang it up in my living room. 

EIA weekly petroleum report: released.

• weekly crude oil change: decreased by 3.1 million bbls
• WTI: down 45 cents
• weekly crude oil inventories: 482.4 million bbls; 7% above the 5-year average
• refineries operating at capacity: 93.9% (trending up; this is about where this metric should be. Finally.)
• imports: down by 144,000 bopd; crude oil imports are down about 8% for the past four weeks compared to same period last year
• jet fuel: up over 5% compared with same four-week period last year

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Back To The Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, June 19, 2019: 66 for the month; 255 for the quarter;

• 35184, 3,646, Hess, EN-Sorenson A-154-94-0211H-8, Alkali Creek, t4/19; cum 5K over 5 days;
• 34960, SI/NC, WPX, Lion 18-19HEL,Mandaree, no production data,

Active rigs:

$53.61	6/19/2019	06/19/2018	06/19/2017	06/19/2016	06/19/2015
Active Rigs	62	61	56	28	77

RBN Energy: Marathon Petroleum / Andeavor Logistics' Permian crude gathering system, part 9.

Most crude oil gathering systems in the Permian — and elsewhere — have a relatively simple aim: to reliably and efficiently deliver crude from the lease to larger pipelines downstream that provide their shippers a high degree of destination optionality — end of story. A select few systems, though, have evolved into key elements of their owners’ larger value chain. With these, crude flows through gathering systems and takeaway pipes to export terminals — maybe even refineries — all held by the same company or its affiliates. By integrating assets from the site of crude production to the refinery or export dock, such owners add value each step of the way. Today, we continue our series with a look at Marathon Petroleum/Andeavor Logistics’ Permian crude gathering system, which started out relatively small and isolated but has evolved into something much bigger and better connected.

No Pipelines? No Problem -- NextEra Will Truck It In -- June 19, 2019

From Bloomberg, NextEra will truck LNG to the northeast. Data points:

• unless you've been living under the Geico Rock, you are well aware of the pipeline bottlenecks in the northeast
• see tag, "Road-To-New-England"
• see tag, "Trucking-LNG" (but for a different reason)
• closely held Edge Gathering Virtual Pipelines 2 LLC is using tractor trailers to treat gas, chill it, and truck it from northeastern Pennsylvania to Rhode Island
• NextEra Energy Marketing LLC, a subsidiary of the biggest North American utility owner, is a shareholder in the company and the exclusive sales and marketing partner for the fuel
• all kinds of pipeline problems
• "a lot of wells are in no man's land"
• New Fortress Energy LLC, founded by billionaire Wes Edens, is also considering trucking Marcellus LNG north

And then look at this:

Edge Gathering is in discussions to haul supply from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana, where gas is a byproduct of oil drilling and is often burned off in a process known as flaring.

And then this:

Edge’s first Pennsylvania project can produce the equivalent of 1 million cubic feet a day, or two truckloads.

One million cubic feet: 175 boe. 

So much more at the link.

If third world countries can do it with trucking, certainly the US can do it with trucking. If that's what the faux environmentalists prefer. Lots of jobs for truckers.

There Won't Be Any More -- Nothing About The Bakken -- YouTube Fugue -- June 19, 2019

Okay, not quite true.

I said "nothing about the Bakken" in the subject line. But here's a Bakken note.

The XTO Bobcat Federal wells are tracked here. They are still SI/NC (DUCs) but some older wells in the immediate area that were taken off line are now coming back on line suggesting that perhaps the Bobcat Federal wells have been fracked. There is nothing at FracFocus yet. But it gave me a chance to look at this well:

• 34355, SI/NC, XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35E2, 33-025-03404, Bear Creek. This is a Three Forks, second bench well, extended reach (3-section);

From the file report:

• depths:
• upper Bakken shale penetrated at 10,996' TVD  (shale seam: 16' thick)
• middle Bakken penetrated at  11,012' TVD (middle Bakken dolomite: 37' thick)
• lower Bakken shale penetrated at 11,049' TVD  (shale seam: 19' thick) 
• Three Forks, first bench, penetrated at 11,068' TVD (dolomite: 39' thick)
• Three Forks, second bench, penetrated at 11,107' TVD 
• description:
• the uppermost section of the second bench is composed of brown shale, tan to light brown shaly dolomite and slighly pink dolomite, which is often referred to as the "Chocolate Shale" 
• below the "Chocolate Shale / Dolomite" making up the upper third of the second bench, the target zone is composed of light gray-brown to pink, to very light brown dolomite interbedded with multicolored dark gray to blue-gray, to rare green-gry argillaceous dolomite
• porosity / geology:
• the best porosity and associated oil staining was observed in a 4' dolomite in the upper half of the target zone approx 2' to 6' high of target center
• structure maps predicted the formation would stay flat
• results:
• the resultant target exposure was approx 80% within the target zone
• the target up-dip was 0.03 degrees, with formation rising 7' over roughly 15,618' MD
• total depth: 26,945 feet
• gas units:
• highest gas show: 1,190 units
• average gas: 175 units
• the lower amounts in gas readings is likely the result of tight porosity and distance from the Bakken source, resulting in gas taking long to infiltrate into the open wellbore
• drilling:
• spud date: March 11, 2018
• re-entry date: May 27, 2018
• TD: June 13, 2018

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The Concert Page

I can count on one hand the number of "big-name" concerts I've attended. The golden age of concerts, at least for me, was in the 1960s and 1970's: Liberace (Vegas); Charlie Rich (southern California); Bob Dylan (San Antonio) -- that was about it. The price of tickets has definitely spoiled the opportunity. Live entertainment -- from Hamilton to Garth Brooks is now for the elite.

I remember going to the Greek Theater, Griffith Park, Los Angeles, on perhaps more than one occasion, but I don't remember the "act."

The best concerts were at the Hostfest in Minot: Charlie Pride; Myron Floren; Williams & Ree; the Ringling 5; Willie Nelson; others I've long forgotten. All "free."

I've seen more musicals in London than concerts in the US. A huge shout-out to the US Air Force for sending us to Europe for thirteen continuous years; four of those years were near London. Then later I returned to northern England for multiple deployments over several years. I never did see The Rocky Horror Picture Show. But I digress.

I was reminded of these things early this morning (see YouTube Fugue): After midnight I start with a random song on YouTube.com which leads me to another and then another. Later, sometimes hours later, I end up somewhere not knowing how I got there. Often I am in a fugue state. I am sure I am not alone.

This morning, shortly after midnight, up popped Charlie Rich:

There Won't Be Any More, Charlie Rich

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On Another Note

I used to enjoy YouTube more but the constant interruption of ads destroys the "mood," for lack of a better word. It breaks the non-drug induced fugue state.

Now, it's Alexa. I love Alexa. Truly amazing. Free, except for the initial $25 outlay or whatever is now for the donut-sized / donut-shaped Echo. For $8 / month, literally every song available.

TransMountain Update -- By Then It Would Be Winter -- June 19, 2019

Hope springs eternal: the approval came to late to get this project started/completed this year. This will carry over into 2020. Something tells me the legal and political wrangling is not yet over.

Think I'll go out to Alberta
Weather's good there in the fall
I got some friends that I can go to working for
Still I wish you'd change your mind
If I asked you one more time
But we've been through that a hundred times or more

Four Strong Winds, Ian and Sylvia

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Definition of Insanity

I don't think folks realize that once the bill is passed, "no-growth" begins immediately. Any new project, any new development, anything that "requires" energy will need to be approved by the Climate Action Council.

With "social justice" a major component of the law, I see a lot of lawsuits against corporations with deep pockets. 

Link here.

The legislation calls for reducing emissions by 40% from 1990 levels by 2030 and 85% by 2050. The remaining 15% of emissions would be offset, making the state carbon neutral. The bill would also require that all electricity generation come from carbon-free sources by 2040. A Climate Action Council would be established to ensure the state meets its targets.

From the article:

New York has considerable ground to make up. The state cut emissions only 8% between 1990 and 2015, according to the most recent New York greenhouse gas inventory.

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This Calls For A Drink

From The Wall Street Journal, Scotch breaks with tradition to woo new drinkers. A governing body is relaxing rules over how to produce the spirit, giving in to demands by distillers.

To count as Scotch, the spirit must be distilled in Scotland from water and malted barley and aged in the country for three years in oak casks.

The Scotch Whisky Association, which enforces how Scotch is made and marketed, has for years also required distillers to mature and finish the drink in casks traditionally used by the industry, limiting producers mainly to old sherry, cognac, bourbon or port barrels.

Now, in a rare change to the rules, it will allow a wider variety of casks, including those previously used to age tequila and mezcal, cachaça, shochu and baijiu and other fruit spirits.

Paul Miller, owner of St. Andrews-based Eden Mill Distillery & Brewery, hopes that access to a wider range of casks will decrease prices. Standard bourbon casks cost him over £100 ($125), while wine casks can range from £80 to £200 depending on provenance, making them among his biggest outlays.

I honestly don't think it's the cost of Scotch that is the problem.

The Daily Activity Report For Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Posted.

Link here.

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The Baseball Page

This is really, really cool. I was first made aware of the 2019 Twins while watching the Texas Rangers play Cleveland last night. The play-by-play folks happened to mention the Twins in passing. And then I saw this in The Wall Street Journal:

From the linked article:

It isn’t the New York Yankees, who have led the sport in homers in each of the last two years. It isn’t the Houston Astros, with their turbocharged lineup and bandbox home stadium. It isn’t the Los Angeles Dodgers or Boston Red Sox or any of the other big-market clubs typically known for their ability to send balls into the stratosphere.

It’s the Minnesota Twins, and with the schedule approaching the halfway mark, it’s time to start treating them as what they are: legitimate World Series contenders.

Despite limited expectations coming out of spring training, the Twins have emerged as an unexpected force, on a pace to finish with a franchise-record 107 wins. They entered Tuesday holding a 10-game lead over the Cleveland Indians in the American League Central, putting them firmly en route to their first division title since 2010.

Based on the current winning percentages of their opponents through Monday, they have the second-easiest schedule in the major leagues the rest of the way.

And then this:

At their current rate, the Twins would bash 313 home runs in 2019, shattering the Yankees’ all-time mark of 267 from last season. No team has ever had more than nine different players hit at least 15 home runs in a season. Barring significant injuries, the Twins could have as many as 11, all with a payroll far below MLB average.

What has helped? A more aerodynamic ball. Really? Seriously. That's what the article said.

It does seem that baseball scores this season reflect more runs. Last night the Cleveland Indians defeated the Texas Rangers 10 - 3 beginning with a three-homer early in the game, if I recall correctly.

Maybe that's what they need in soccer: a more aerodynamic ball. Fans love to see more scoring, regardless of the sport.