The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 03/28/19

Thursday, March 28, 2019

See You In The Morning! Good Luck To All! A Shout-Out To The Military Women And Men Around The World -- March 28, 2019

WPX With Three New Permits -- March 28, 2019

Active rigs:

$59.37	3/28/2019	03/28/2018	03/28/2017	03/28/2016	03/28/2015
Active Rigs	66	62	49	31	97

Three new permits (the daily report listed five, but two of them were "older" EN-Chamley permits that had been re-instated; apparently re-instated permits are listed among the "new permits" -- see below):

Operator: WPX
Field: Squaw Creek (McKenzie)
Comments:

WPX has permits for a 3-well Mandaree Warrior pad in section 14-149-94, Squaw Creek

Four permits reinstated:

Hess: four EN-Chamley permits in Baskin oil field, Mountrail County

Grapevine, TX, Continues To Grow -- March 28, 2019

There's a big new building going up in our neighborhood -- almost literally behind our apartment complex. I had no idea what it was going to be until I saw this in today's local newspaper.

I wouldn't have posted this except for the fact that the headline says that the dealership going into that location might be the biggest in the state. Wow. If you are the biggest in Texas, you are pretty big. It's being billed as a destination dealership:

eight acres of land
a 13,000-square-foot showroom
a demo track for prospective buyers to try out dirtbikes, four-wheelers, etc.
a 16-by-12-foot video wall of high definition televisions

Five minutes from DFW and yet it seems the airport doesn't impact our daily life at all. This new dealership will be near the newest (still being expanded) and one of the biggest drive-up malls in the nation.

CLR To Drill 18 Wells In 2560-Acre Unit -- Already "A Dozen" Wells In The Area -- March 28, 2019

The Dvirnak-Pletan pad is tracked here.

A reminder:

From the NDIC hearing dockets, Thursday, July 28, 2016:

25171, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, 28 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 6/7/18/19-146-95, Dunn

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. I believe I have the correct area outlined on the map but it could be in error. If this information is important to you, go to the source, in this case, the NDIC and/or CLR. The blue outline of the area is "approximate."

From the NDIC, April, 2019, hearing dockets:

27499, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, 18 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, Dunn County: sections 6/7/18/19-146-95;

Remember: this is a case, not a permit.

The graphics:

The wells:
30136, 1,008, CLR, Pletan ..., t11/18; cum 72K 1/19;
30137, 1,228, CLR, Pletan ..., t11/18; cum 94K 1/19;
30138, 2,574, CLR, Pletan ..., t10/18; cum 134K 1/19;
32748, 2,728, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 131K 1/19;
32749, 2,358, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 171K 1/19;

30139, 2,034, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 122K 1/19;
30140, 2,962, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 185K 1/19;
30141, 2,076, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 100K 1/19;
32899, 2,186, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 134K 1/19;

Global Warming -- March 28, 2019, T+85, Part 4

Updates

Later, 1:24 p.m. Central Time: see first note. Do not go out on the "frozen" lake. The ice is inconsistently thick. Do not attempt to ice fish.

Original Post

How cold does it get in Montana?

This is actually from a few days ago, maybe a week ago, but I'm just now getting around to it, cleaning out my in-box.

About a week my sister's family -- the one from Portland, OR -- drove out to Flathead Lake (Montana, west side of the Rockies) for spring break.

They told me the lake had frozen over. I had never heard that happening before so I asked my sister to talk to the locals out there and hear what they had to say about the lake being frozen.

It turns out -- the lake doesn't freeze. Well, not until this year. LOL.

From NBC-Montana:

POLSON, Mont. — Jim Craft saw something special at work Thursday -- something he hadn’t seen in decades.

“I was tracking it here in Yellow Bay, watching the bay freeze out,” Craft, a research scientist at Flathead Lake Biological Station, said. “I was watching the shorelines freeze out, then when you start seeing the ice out in the middle of the lake, you know it’s something special.”

“ Flathead Lake almost completely froze over on Thursday. Scientists say it’s the most ice they’ve seen on the lake in at least 25 years. According to Flathead Lake Biological Station data, 90 percent of Flathead Lake froze in March 1993.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- March 28, 2019 -- Thoughts On The Apple iPad

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Everybody Knew

The back-up singers make this song.

Everybody Knows, Leonard Cohen

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Back To Business

Natural gas fill-rate, link here:

See Platt's analysis here.

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The Apple Page

A reader asked me my opinion on which iPad to buy. My reply, curious if anyone has other thoughts.

An iPad. Wow, that's a tough one.

I use mine all the time mostly just to read; they are not particularly good for work (blogging) or replying to lots of e-mail. But to lie in bed and just surf the net, I really enjoy mine. I used to think I couldn't live without an iPad, but not so much any more. Mostly just reading at night (but they can do so much more -- so you will really enjoy it).

Definitely not:

iPad Pro -- way more than you need

iPad mini -- way too small

So,

iPad Air, or

iPad (billed as the "most popular")

iPad Air: 10.5 inch -- large, but good size; and this is their "newest" product --

$499 for 64 GB

$649 for 256 GB

If it's only for reading, not much work, you really don't need much storage, so you could get by with 64 GB but in this day and age, that's not much storage.

iPad: 9.7 inch -- this is what I have; I think the 10.5 inch (above) would be better; and it's their very oldest iPad model

$329 for 32 GB

$429 for 128 GB

So, that pretty much ends the discussion.

If I was/were going to get a new iPad, it would be the iPad Air, either $499 for 64GB, or $649 for 256 GB.

Either one would be fine.

I would go with the $649, 256 GB, iPad Air.

More storage space for movies/photos if traveling with the grandchildren.

The bad news: the attachable keyboard ($159) and the pencil ($129) are extra.

You don't need the keyboard: there is one on the screen, like a cellphone, but if you do a lot of work with iPad at the table, then maybe a keyboard later on, but not now.

I also wouldn't get the pencil now either, wait and see if you would really use it.

My biggest concern: I've grown up with Apple so it's second nature for me to use any of their products. It might take some time to get used to a new system, but wow, on the road, traveling, great for photos, movies and surfing the net.

Which reminds me: I would get "wi-fi" only. I would not spend the extra $200 or whatever it is for wi-fi + cellular. I don't think you need cellular. I don't buy any more products with cellular. I don't like the monthly bill. And I can find wi-fi almost anywhere.

My cellphone is all I need when I can't find wi-fi.

Another Look At The Rolf Well In Brooklyn Oil Field -- March 2019

Updates

May 2, 2019: an update.

Original Post

Let's go back and look at this earlier posting. Re-posting, from a reader:

I thought you might enjoy this example of the Bakken being awesome.

More Rolf wells were recently drilled and fracked which produced this result on an existing well. This month it it produced 23,432. The new Rolf and Springfield wells have been capped, perhaps awaiting the new gas plant being built on section 16 in Brooklyn Township.

20183, 282, CLR, Rolf 1-20H, 33-105-02100, Brooklyn, t6/11; cum 270K 1/19; recent production -- no evidence this well was re-fracked; the full production profile of this well is posted here.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	30	19636	19251	58855	25522	24915	220
BAKKEN	12-2018	5	462	435	22	923	0	882
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	4	145	265	87	335	267	20
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1489	1614	885	3441	3025	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	29	1284	1147	691	2921	2546	0

I wonder if anyone really looked at how big a deal this really is.

This well was originally drilled/completed in mid-2011. By September, 2018, it had produced a total of 249,409 bbls of crude oil. Then in January, 2019, no re-frack, it produced 19,636 bbls.

The following month, February, the reader said it produced 23,432 bbls of crude oil.

The raw numbers are impressive, but the percentages are even more striking.

January, 2019: 19636 / 249,409 = 7.87%
January + February, 2019: 43,068 / 249,409 = 17.268%

In other words, in two months, this well -- not re-fracked -- produced almost 20% of the total this well had produced between mid-2011 and the end of 2018. This speaks volumes about:

the decline rate
what we don't know about the Bakken
and, a whole bunch of other stuff

The Enerplus Tailor Pad in Mandaree Oil Field -- March 28, 2019

The three Enerplus wells that came off confidential list today:

34416, 1,086, Enerplus, Scissors 149-93-04B-03H, 33-025-03421, 34 stages; 8.2 million lbs, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 83K 1/19; total drilling days, 18; total drilling hours, 109.4 hours; a strong gas show of 4,981 units while drilling the Lodgepole; the well landed an estimated 25 feet into the middle Bakken; the target was the "Clean B" and appeared somewhat thicker than prognosis; no trips in the lateral; connection gases built to hte 3,300 to 5,000 unit range after 17,500' MD; a 20' flare noted.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	18521	18585	15685	18521	13023	3749
BAKKEN	12-2018	24	17744	17498	14802	17744	8333	8446
BAKKEN	11-2018	24	18375	18677	14948	18375	9822	8123
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	27582	27539	35325	27582	6068	20984
BAKKEN	9-2018	3	998	375	1106	998	552	405

34415, 1,490, Enerplus, Thimble 149-93-04B-03H, 33-025-03420, 34 stages; 11.9 million lbs, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 113K 1/19; drilling days, 17; drilling hours, 122.3; target: middle Bakken C Zone; Stoneham Rig 18 walked form the Thimble 149 well to this location on June 25, 2018; no trips in the lateral; much lower gas than Scissors but at 21,184' MD gas was over 3,400 units with a 10 - 15' flare.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	17	15390	15803	12688	15390	11074	3472
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	25475	25187	19573	25475	11994	11758
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	29844	30254	23547	29844	15910	13178
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	42213	41376	63534	42213	9117	32373
BAKKEN	9-2018	3	264	99	4416	264	146	102

34414, 1,450, Enerplus Tailor 149-93-04B-03H-TF, 33-025-03419, 34 stages; 10.2 million lbs, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 73K 1/19; total days drilling, 24; total drilling hours, 114.9; drilling the lateral, an intermittent 2' - 1' flare was established; connection gases built to 3,500 - 4,000 units by 11,000' MD; flare became more consistent after 17,500'. No trips in the lateral. Trip gas after the short trip at TD of 21,224' MD was only 1,400 units with a 4' flare.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	20	8620	8953	9569	8620	6273	1728
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	17376	17084	17036	17376	8135	7992
BAKKEN	11-2018	27	15122	15562	17127	15123	8184	6514
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	30319	30723	40331	30320	6770	22974
BAKKEN	9-2018	2	1838	690	8865	1839	1016	776

Enbridge, Huge Win; Sempra Energy, North America -- March 28, 2019

Enbridge, line 3, link here.

Sempra Energy, Mexico, link here.

Sempra Energy is considering renegotiating regasification contracts at a Mexican terminal where it wants to add liquefaction capabilities to allow a potential increase in the LNG export capacity currently envisioned there.

The effort reflects the San Diego-based utility and energy infrastructure developer's confidence in the direction of commercial talks it is having with potential offtakers to support the LNG project at Energia Costa Azul in Baja California. It also is building market interest in a proposed export terminal in Texas and a second phase at the Louisiana terminal where it is preparing to start up its first train.

Sempra Energy, North America, link here.

Sempra Energy is working aggressively to become one of the biggest liquefied natural gas exporters in North America, CEO Jeff Martin tells Reuters
SRE is developing five projects - Cameron phases 1 and 2 in Louisiana, Port Arthur in Texas and Costa Azul phases 1 and 2 in Baja California in Mexico - totaling 45M mt/year
if the company builds all 45M mt/year of capacity, it could become the second biggest North American LNG exporter behind current market leader Cheniere Energy
the first 12M mt/year phase at the $10B Cameron project is already under construction, and Martin says SRE and its Cameron partners - Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Total - are working on a study for an 8M mt/year phase 2 expansion of the facility
at the 12M mt/year Port Arthur project, Martin says SRE has a "big marketing effort to see if we can get sufficient contracts to reach a final investment decision" by Q1 2020

Unemployment Claims Well Below Consensus -- March 28, 2019, T+85, Part 3

Re-posting -- first time unemployment claims well below consensus and prior week claims revised strongly downward. Headlines anywhere? Nope.

Wow, this is incredible data being post today:

Jobless claims, link here:

prior: 221K
revised down: 216K
consensus: 225K
actual: 211K

4Q18 GDP: revised down, corporate profits failed to rise for the first time in more than two years. 4Q18 GDP at 2.2% -- and, of course, about that time Jerome Powell raised the fed rate on concerns that the economy was overheating. But then this: if there is no recession in first and second quarters of 2019, the "expansion" will be the longest on record. I guess that "official milestone" will be set July, 2019. I'm not sure if the linked Reuters article is an op-ed or a news article, but it did include this:

For all of 2018, the economy grew 2.9 percent as previously reported, despite the White House's fiscal stimulus of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and more government spending. Growth last year was the strongest since 2015 and was an acceleration from the 2.2 percent logged in 2017.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

MasterCard EVP: Apple Card is unique for being "digital-first." Link here.

new Apple Card: co-partner -- MasterCard
apply for the card on a mobile app; will immediately get "electronic" card; no waiting for physical card
titanium metal, not plastic
no number or expiring date and no name on the card
brand mark of Apple and brand mark of MasterCard
syncs with iPhone to analyze spending
daily cash rewards
built into Apple Wallet app
no fees
tokenization: each transaction has its own code; no longer uses an account number to complete transaction
point of sale: no contact required; card can be "tapped"on the terminal
issued by Goldman Sachs
MasterCard spokesman avoids answering question on interest rates, etc

The market in early morning trading? The Dow is up 100 points. Whoo-hoo! Watch list:

XLNX: up $2.75, up 2.2%, trading at $128
Tesla: up $3.78, up 1.4%; trading below $280
UNP: up $2.00, up 1.2%; trading at $165
AAPL: up 15 cents; trading at $188
EOG: up 48 cents; trading at $95
SRE: down 38 cents;
D: down 62 cents
OAS: up 5 cents, at $6.00
BRK-B: up 14 cents, right at $200
RDS-B: up 6 cents; just below $64
EW: up $1.50, just below $190
JAG: down eleven cents or about 1%
COP: down 53 cents;
CVX: up 34 cents;

March 28, 2019, T+85, Part 1

Jobless claims, link here:

prior: 221K
revised down: 216K
consensus: 225K
actual: 211K

For all of 2018, the economy grew 2.9 percent as previously reported, despite the White House's fiscal stimulus of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and more government spending. Growth last year was the strongest since 2015 and was an acceleration from the 2.2 percent logged in 2017.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The theme continues -- a "Fed" rate cut later this year.

Links to which we will return:

Daimler and Geely team up to build Smart cars in China; reminder: Geely already owns Volvo;
solar car parks in Scotland
$30 billion Driftwood LNG decision?

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Looking For Love In All The Wrong Places

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Enbridge Wins Big -- March 28, 2019

Enbridge / Line 3: win big -- in court -- Minnesota -- again.

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, March 28, 2019: 120 wells for the month; 340 wells for the quarter

35433, SI/NC, XTO, Emma 31X-30A, Alkali Creek, no production data,
34927, 2,663, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HF, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum --;
34912, SI/NC, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-13-1H-1,
34416, 1,086, Enerplus, Scissors 149-93-04B-03H, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 83K 1/19;
34415, 1,490, Enerplus, Thimble 149-93-04B-03H, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 113K 1/19;
34414, 1,450, Enerplus Tailor 149-93-04B-03H-TF, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 73K 1/19;
24045, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1H, Charlson, no production data;