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Thursday, March 28, 2019

See You In The Morning! Good Luck To All! A Shout-Out To The Military Women And Men Around The World -- March 28, 2019


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WPX With Three New Permits -- March 28, 2019

Active rigs:

$59.373/28/201903/28/201803/28/201703/28/201603/28/2015
Active Rigs6662493197

Three new permits (the daily report listed five, but two of them were "older" EN-Chamley permits that had been re-instated; apparently re-instated permits are listed among the "new permits" -- see below):
  • Operator: WPX
  • Field: Squaw Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • WPX has permits for a 3-well Mandaree Warrior pad in section 14-149-94, Squaw Creek
Four permits reinstated:
  • Hess: four EN-Chamley permits in Baskin oil field, Mountrail County
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Grapevine, TX, Continues To Grow -- March 28, 2019

There's a big new building going up in our neighborhood -- almost literally behind our apartment complex. I had no idea what it was going to be until I saw this in today's local newspaper.


I wouldn't have posted this except for the fact that the headline says that the dealership going into that location might be the biggest in the state. Wow. If you are the biggest in Texas, you are pretty big. It's being billed as a destination dealership:
  • eight acres of land
  • a 13,000-square-foot showroom
  • a demo track for prospective buyers to try out dirtbikes, four-wheelers, etc. 
  • a 16-by-12-foot video wall of high definition televisions
Five minutes from DFW and yet it seems the airport doesn't impact our daily life at all. This new dealership will be near the newest (still being expanded) and one of the biggest drive-up malls in the nation.
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CLR To Drill 18 Wells In 2560-Acre Unit -- Already "A Dozen" Wells In The Area -- March 28, 2019

The Dvirnak-Pletan pad is tracked here. 

A reminder:
From the NDIC hearing dockets, Thursday, July 28, 2016:
  • 25171, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, 28 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 6/7/18/19-146-95, Dunn
Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. I believe I have the correct area outlined on the map but it could be in error. If this information is important to you, go to the source, in this case, the NDIC and/or CLR. The blue outline of the area is "approximate."

From the NDIC, April, 2019, hearing dockets:
27499, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, 18 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, Dunn County: sections 6/7/18/19-146-95;
Remember: this is a case, not a permit.

The graphics:






The wells:
30136, 1,008, CLR, Pletan ..., t11/18; cum 72K 1/19;
30137, 1,228, CLR, Pletan ..., t11/18; cum 94K 1/19;
30138, 2,574, CLR, Pletan ..., t10/18; cum 134K 1/19;
32748, 2,728, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 131K 1/19;
32749, 2,358, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 171K 1/19;

30139, 2,034, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 122K 1/19;
30140, 2,962, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 185K 1/19;
30141, 2,076, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 100K 1/19;
32899, 2,186, CLR, Dvirnak ..., t10/18; cum 134K 1/19;
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Global Warming -- March 28, 2019, T+85, Part 4

Updates

Later, 1:24 p.m. Central Time: see first note. Do not go out on the "frozen" lake. The ice is inconsistently thick. Do not attempt to ice fish.

Original Post 

How cold does it get in Montana?

This is actually from a few days ago, maybe a week ago, but I'm just now getting around to it, cleaning out my in-box.

About a week my sister's family -- the one from Portland, OR -- drove out to Flathead Lake (Montana, west side of the Rockies) for spring break.

They told me the lake had frozen over. I had never heard that happening before so I asked my sister to talk to the locals out there and hear what they had to say about the lake being frozen.

It turns out -- the lake doesn't freeze. Well, not until this year. LOL.


From NBC-Montana:
POLSON, Mont. — Jim Craft saw something special at work Thursday -- something he hadn’t seen in decades.

“I was tracking it here in Yellow Bay, watching the bay freeze out,” Craft, a research scientist at Flathead Lake Biological Station, said. “I was watching the shorelines freeze out, then when you start seeing the ice out in the middle of the lake, you know it’s something special.”

“ Flathead Lake almost completely froze over on Thursday. Scientists say it’s the most ice they’ve seen on the lake in at least 25 years. According to Flathead Lake Biological Station data, 90 percent of Flathead Lake froze in March 1993.
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Natural Gas Fill Rate -- March 28, 2019 -- Thoughts On The Apple iPad

************************************
Everybody Knew

The back-up singers make this song. 

Everybody Knows, Leonard Cohen

**************************************
Back To Business

Natural gas fill-rate, link here:

See Platt's analysis here.

***************************************
The Apple Page

A reader asked me my opinion on which iPad to buy. My reply, curious if anyone has other thoughts.
An iPad. Wow, that's a tough one.

I use mine all the time mostly just to read; they are not particularly good for work (blogging) or replying to lots of e-mail. But to lie in bed and just surf the net, I really enjoy mine. I used to think I couldn't live without an iPad, but not so much any more. Mostly just reading at night (but they can do so much more -- so you will really enjoy it).

Definitely not:
  • iPad Pro -- way more than you need
  • iPad mini -- way too small
So,
  • iPad Air, or
  • iPad (billed as the "most popular")

iPad Air: 10.5 inch -- large, but good size; and this is their "newest" product --
  • $499 for 64 GB
  • $649 for 256 GB
If it's only for reading, not much work, you really don't need much storage, so you could get by with 64 GB but in this day and age, that's not much storage.

iPad:  9.7 inch -- this is what I have; I think the 10.5 inch (above) would be better; and it's their very oldest iPad model
  • $329 for 32 GB
  • $429 for 128 GB
So, that pretty much ends the discussion.

If I was/were going to get a new iPad, it would be the iPad Air, either $499 for 64GB, or $649 for 256 GB.

Either one would be fine.

I would go with the $649, 256 GB, iPad Air.

More storage space for movies/photos if traveling with the grandchildren.

The bad news: the attachable keyboard ($159) and the pencil ($129) are extra.

You don't need the keyboard: there is one on the screen, like a cellphone, but if you do a lot of work with iPad at the table, then maybe a keyboard later on, but not now.

I also wouldn't get the pencil now either, wait and see if you would really use it.

My biggest concern: I've grown up with Apple so it's second nature for me to use any of their products. It might take some time to get used to a new system, but wow, on the road, traveling, great for photos, movies and surfing the net.

Which reminds me: I would get "wi-fi" only. I would not spend the extra $200 or whatever it is for wi-fi + cellular. I don't think you need cellular. I don't buy any more products with cellular. I don't like the monthly bill. And I can find wi-fi almost anywhere.

My cellphone is all I need when I can't find wi-fi.
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Another Look At The Rolf Well In Brooklyn Oil Field -- March 2019

Updates

May 2, 2019: an update.

Original Post 

Let's go back and look at this earlier posting. Re-posting, from a reader:
I thought you might enjoy this example of the Bakken being awesome.
More Rolf wells were recently drilled and fracked which produced this result on an existing well. This month it it produced 23,432. The new Rolf and Springfield wells have been capped, perhaps awaiting the new gas plant being built on section 16 in Brooklyn Township.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2019301963619251588552552224915220
BAKKEN12-20185462435229230882
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-201841452658733526720
BAKKEN8-20183114891614885344130250
BAKKEN7-20182912841147691292125460

I wonder if anyone really looked at how big a deal this really is.

This well was originally drilled/completed in mid-2011. By September, 2018, it had produced a total of 249,409 bbls of crude oil. Then in January, 2019, no re-frack, it produced 19,636 bbls.

The following month, February, the reader said it produced 23,432 bbls of crude oil.

The raw numbers are impressive, but the percentages are even more striking.
  • January, 2019: 19636 / 249,409 = 7.87%
  • January + February, 2019: 43,068 / 249,409 = 17.268%
In other words, in two months, this well -- not re-fracked -- produced almost 20% of the total this well had produced between mid-2011 and the end of 2018. This speaks volumes about:
  • the decline rate
  • what we don't know about the Bakken
  • and, a whole bunch of other stuff
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The Enerplus Tailor Pad in Mandaree Oil Field -- March 28, 2019

The three Enerplus wells that came off confidential list today:
  • 34416, 1,086, Enerplus, Scissors 149-93-04B-03H, 33-025-03421, 34 stages; 8.2 million lbs, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 83K 1/19; total drilling days, 18; total drilling hours, 109.4 hours; a strong gas show of 4,981 units while drilling the Lodgepole; the well landed an estimated 25 feet into the middle Bakken; the target was the "Clean B" and appeared somewhat thicker than prognosis; no trips in the lateral; connection gases built to hte 3,300 to 5,000 unit range after 17,500' MD; a 20' flare noted.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193118521185851568518521130233749
BAKKEN12-2018241774417498148021774483338446
BAKKEN11-2018241837518677149481837598228123
BAKKEN10-20183027582275393532527582606820984
BAKKEN9-201839983751106998552405
  • 34415, 1,490, Enerplus, Thimble 149-93-04B-03H, 33-025-03420, 34 stages; 11.9 million lbs, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 113K 1/19;  drilling days, 17; drilling hours, 122.3; target: middle Bakken C Zone; Stoneham Rig 18 walked form the Thimble 149 well to this location on June 25, 2018; no trips in the lateral; much lower gas than Scissors but at 21,184' MD gas was over 3,400 units with a 10 - 15' flare.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20191715390158031268815390110743472
BAKKEN12-201831254752518719573254751199411758
BAKKEN11-201829298443025423547298441591013178
BAKKEN10-20183042213413766353442213911732373
BAKKEN9-20183264994416264146102
  • 34414, 1,450, Enerplus Tailor 149-93-04B-03H-TF, 33-025-03419, 34 stages; 10.2 million lbs, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 73K 1/19; total days drilling, 24; total drilling hours, 114.9; drilling the lateral, an intermittent 2' - 1' flare was established; connection gases built to 3,500 - 4,000 units by 11,000' MD; flare became more consistent after 17,500'. No trips in the lateral. Trip gas after the short trip at TD of 21,224' MD was only 1,400 units with a 4' flare.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201920862089539569862062731728
BAKKEN12-2018311737617084170361737681357992
BAKKEN11-2018271512215562171271512381846514
BAKKEN10-20183030319307234033130320677022974
BAKKEN9-201821838690886518391016776
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Enbridge, Huge Win; Sempra Energy, North America -- March 28, 2019

Enbridge, line 3, link here.


Sempra Energy, Mexico, link here.
Sempra Energy is considering renegotiating regasification contracts at a Mexican terminal where it wants to add liquefaction capabilities to allow a potential increase in the LNG export capacity currently envisioned there.
The effort reflects the San Diego-based utility and energy infrastructure developer's confidence in the direction of commercial talks it is having with potential offtakers to support the LNG project at Energia Costa Azul in Baja California. It also is building market interest in a proposed export terminal in Texas and a second phase at the Louisiana terminal where it is preparing to start up its first train.
Sempra Energy, North America, link here.
  • Sempra Energy is working aggressively to become one of the biggest liquefied natural gas exporters in North America, CEO Jeff Martin tells Reuters
  • SRE is developing five projects - Cameron phases 1 and 2 in Louisiana, Port Arthur in Texas and Costa Azul phases 1 and 2 in Baja California in Mexico - totaling 45M mt/year
  • if the company builds all 45M mt/year of capacity, it could become the second biggest North American LNG exporter behind current market leader Cheniere Energy
  • the first 12M mt/year phase at the $10B Cameron project is already under construction, and Martin says SRE and its Cameron partners - Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Total - are working on a study for an 8M mt/year phase 2 expansion of the facility
  • at the 12M mt/year Port Arthur project, Martin says SRE has a "big marketing effort to see if we can get sufficient contracts to reach a final investment decision" by Q1 2020
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Unemployment Claims Well Below Consensus -- March 28, 2019, T+85, Part 3

Re-posting -- first time unemployment claims well below consensus and prior week claims revised strongly downward. Headlines anywhere? Nope.

Wow, this is incredible data being post today:

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 221K
  • revised down: 216K
  • consensus: 225K 
  • actual: 211K
4Q18 GDP: revised down, corporate profits failed to rise for the first time in more than two years. 4Q18 GDP at 2.2% -- and, of course, about that time Jerome Powell raised the fed rate on concerns that the economy was overheating. But then this: if there is no recession in first and second quarters of 2019, the "expansion" will be the longest on record. I guess that "official milestone" will be set July, 2019. I'm not sure if the linked Reuters article is an op-ed or a news article, but it did include this:
For all of 2018, the economy grew 2.9 percent as previously reported, despite the White House's fiscal stimulus of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and more government spending. Growth last year was the strongest since 2015 and was an acceleration from the 2.2 percent logged in 2017.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

MasterCard EVP: Apple Card is unique for being "digital-first." Link here. 
  • new Apple Card: co-partner -- MasterCard
  • apply for the card on a mobile app; will immediately get "electronic" card; no waiting for physical card
  • titanium metal, not plastic
  • no number or expiring date and no name on the card
  • brand mark of Apple and brand mark of MasterCard
  • syncs with iPhone to analyze spending
  • daily cash rewards
  • built into Apple Wallet app
  • no fees
  • tokenization: each transaction has its own code; no longer uses an account number to complete transaction
  • point of sale: no contact required; card can be "tapped"on the terminal
  • issued by Goldman Sachs
  • MasterCard spokesman avoids answering question on interest rates, etc
The market in early morning trading? The Dow is up 100 points. Whoo-hoo! Watch list:
  • XLNX: up $2.75, up 2.2%, trading at $128
  • Tesla: up $3.78, up 1.4%; trading below $280
  • UNP: up $2.00, up 1.2%; trading at $165
  • AAPL: up 15 cents; trading at $188
  • EOG: up 48 cents; trading at $95
  • SRE: down 38 cents;
  • D: down 62 cents
  • OAS: up 5 cents, at $6.00
  • BRK-B: up 14 cents, right at $200
  • RDS-B: up 6 cents; just below $64
  • EW: up $1.50, just below $190
  • JAG: down eleven cents or about 1%
  • COP: down 53 cents;
  • CVX: up 34 cents; 

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March 28, 2019, T+85, Part 1

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 221K
  • revised down: 216K
  • consensus: 225K 
  • actual: 211K
4Q18 GDP: revised down, corporate profits failed to rise for the first time in more than two years. 4Q18 GDP at 2.2% -- and, of course, about that time Jerome Powell raised the fed rate on concerns that the economy was overheating. But then this: if there is no recession in first and second quarters of 2019, the "expansion" will be the longest on record. I guess that "official milestone" will be set July, 2019. I'm not sure if the linked Reuters article is an op-ed or a news article, but it did include this:
For all of 2018, the economy grew 2.9 percent as previously reported, despite the White House's fiscal stimulus of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and more government spending. Growth last year was the strongest since 2015 and was an acceleration from the 2.2 percent logged in 2017.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

The theme continues -- a "Fed" rate cut later this year.


Links to which we will return:
**************************************
Looking For Love In All The Wrong Places


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Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Enbridge Wins Big -- March 28, 2019

Enbridge / Line 3: win big -- in court -- Minnesota -- again. 

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, March 28, 2019: 120 wells for the month; 340 wells for the quarter
  • 35433, SI/NC, XTO, Emma 31X-30A, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 34927, 2,663, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HF, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum --;
  • 34912, SI/NC, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-13-1H-1, 
  • 34416, 1,086, Enerplus, Scissors 149-93-04B-03H, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 83K 1/19;
  • 34415, 1,490, Enerplus, Thimble 149-93-04B-03H, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 113K 1/19;
  • 34414, 1,450, Enerplus Tailor 149-93-04B-03H-TF, Mandaree, t10/18; cum 73K 1/19;
  • 24045, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1H, Charlson, no production data;
Active rigs:

$58.583/28/201903/28/201803/28/201703/28/201603/28/2015
Active Rigs6662493197

RBN Energy: negative Permian gas prices, but is the worst yet to come?
Permian natural gas prices are having a rough spring. After a volatile winter that saw two periods of negative-priced trades followed by a period of relatively strong prices, values at the Permian’s major trading hubs hit the skids earlier this week just as Spring Break set in for most in the Lone Star state. Once again, pipeline maintenance and burgeoning production appear to be the main culprits, but this upheaval feels different, in our view.
Clearly, the price crash has reached a new level of drama, with day-ahead spot prices at West Texas’s Waha hub now settling below zero — some days by more than $0.50/MMBtu. Gas production has raced higher too, now within striking distance of 10 Bcf/d, on the coattails of continued oil pipeline capacity expansions, but new gas pipeline takeaway capacity is an estimated six months away. What becomes of Permian gas prices in the meantime, and how much worse could already-negative prices get? Today, we discuss the drivers behind the latest price deterioration and assess what’s ahead for the Permian natural gas markets.
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