Week 8: February 16, 2020 -- February 22, 2020

Best graphic of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

• Russia making headway in the Mideast at US expense.
• Coronavirus jumps to South Korea;
• Sweden says no additional money to fight global warming;
• Canadian rail shut down;

Top international energy story:

• Saudi Arabia with an existential crisis;
• Japan: back to coal;

Top national non-energy story:

• Bernie, politics, Nevada; here, here, and everywhere; 
• CNN viewership collapses;
• 1.5% of all US corporate tax revenue comes from Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway;
• US Navy to get F-35s;
• Deere, fertilizer, farmers;
• Morgan Stanley to buy E*Trade; largest banking deal since the meltdown a decade ago;
• Ryan Newman released from hospital after two days following horrific Daytona 500 wreck;
• Tesla valuation;

Top national energy story:

• US solar farms deteriorating, failing;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:

• Funding for schools in Bakken counties still an issue; looking to Legacy Fund for help;
• Burgum wants to reconsider unpaid gas royalty issue
• ND regulators okay expansion of DAPL
• Suing the state over mineral rights: millions, if not billions, of dollars are at stake
• Basin Electric to purchase power from SD solar farm near Rapid City
• Helms believes flaring goals will be met; changes may be coming
• MDU adding nat gas unit to Heskett Station; shut down coal units by 2022
• Williston's new tourism slogan: "Tap Into The Energy" (previously: "Boomtown")
• Dickinson to build new elementary school; construction to begin next year

Wells of interest:

• The Nine Point Energy Hovde wells in Spring Creek; and, here; here;
• Two EOG Liberty LR wells; one a 50K well; and, here;

Operators:

• CLR: damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead; Cedar Coulee;

Operations:

Fracking:

• MRO, halo effect;

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

• Surge in Bakken boardings;

Bakken 101:

• Bakken ethane, ethane cracker, BTU Analytics;

Commentary:

• High tax states;
• Doomsday chronicles: Illinois re-visited;
• India's upside for oil demand seems unlimited;

Two Incredible Statistics -- February 22, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:16 p.m. Central Time: had this been a close race this would have been the story -- what's going on with the Nevada-tabulating app? The caucuses have now been closed for several hours, and only 27 percent of precincts has reported. What's taking so long? Only because Sanders won by such a lopsided margin no one is asking this question. But again, this is extraordinary, how long it's taking for the votes to come in.


Later, 10:33 p.m. Central Time: coming out of Nevada, this is what happens next:

• South Carolina shootout: Biden, Sanders, Steyer -- in that order
• Latino voters will be the surprise voting bloc: Sanders takes Texas and California
• African-American vote incredibly important in South Carolina, but everywhere else, it's all about the Latino/Latina vote -- and Bernie has that vote locked up

Later, 9:00 p.m. Central Time: I'm a political junkie. I can't stand MSNBC. Tonight I find myself defaulting to MSNBC. This is absolutely fascinating. Remember: these MSNBC talking heads were 1000% behind Hillary. They were supremely surprised / shocked that she lost, and subsequently severely depressed, some (most) suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. It appears it is happening again. These MSNBC talking heads are shocked at how well Bernie has done. This was never, never expected. It is a hoot to watch MSNBC talking heads trying to sort this out. And that's why I keep turning back to MSNBC tonight. It will be interesting to see how Rachel Maddow handles this shock Monday.

Later, 8:40 p.m. Central Time: wow, wow, wow -- will anyone hit the 15% threshold except Bernie and Biden?

• Bernie: 46%
• Biden: 24%
• Buttigieg: 14%
• Pocahontas: 9%
• but, think about this: Bloomberg was not on the ballot. Bloomberg would have taken a few votes from Bernie and Buttigieg, but he would have likely knocked out Biden and Pocahontas. 

Original Post

First incredible statistic: Nevada caucuses -- early results show Bernie Sanders taking upwards of 55% of the vote. That is incredible, on so many levels. Bloomberg is so lucky he did not enter this race.

By the way, speaking of Bloomberg, is it just me or do those Bloomberg ads look really, really pathetic now? Before the debate, the Bloomberg ads were "believable." The ads didn't say anything except "Mike can do it," but after the debate one really wonders if the only thing Mike can do is make slick ads. We'll see.

Bernie won (or came very, very close to winning) in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then he delivered a knockout blow in Nevada and will clearly win in South Carolina. He will win California on Super Tuesday, and unlike the other candidates won't even have to campaign in California. While his opponents will have to spend a huge amount of time and a huge amount of financial resources in California, he can spend his time in other states. 

Back on January 31 2020, I wrote:

The California poll, KQED/NPR, 1/25 - 1/27: if by Super Tuesday, we still have seven viable Democrat candidates, it's very, very possible Sanders takes all delegates.

The Super Tuesday states:

Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

Finally:

The excitement in the Bernie camp is palpable. Everyone's eyes are on California. But when you look at the entire list of states voting on March 3, it's hard to believe he will do as well as the Bernie folks think he will. But by Super Tuesday, will Biden, Klobuchar, Pocahontas, Buttigieg, even have the resources to keep going? I'm not sure.

Anyway, that's longer than I had planned.

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Back to the Bakken

The second incredible statistic, which comes from the Bakken, and from a reader in response to this post. This is the comment from that reader regarding all the ethane coming out of the Bakken (a reminder for those who are receiving royalties: natural gas is primarily methane, a one-carbon gas; ethane, propane, and butane are the C2 - C4 gases).

An eerie point in this story that the EXTRA Bakken ethane that needs to be pulled out of the gas (not all of it, just the extra) would be enough to fill a cracker.

https://btuanalytics.com/bakken-gas-quality/. This is an incredibly good article, dated February 11, 2020. I will come back to this one. It's so important that I have archived it.

Later: I have spent the last hour or so trying to sort out this "BTU Analytics" story, and still haven't found what I wanted. A reader that really, really understands this, and really provides me helpful information, put this article into perspective:

Theoretically, a $6 billion cracker could be built in North Dakota and have an almost indefinite amount of 'free' ethane feedstock for decades. 

The qoutation marks surrounding 'free' are only due to the needed processing (fractionation) and piping to this theoretical cracker.

That 90,000 bbld rejected ethane is less than a single Appalachian Basin operator - Antero - rejects every single day.

Meanwhile, India (Gail and Reliance) has started a brand new industry - along with European Ineos - in constructing fleets of massive ships to transport American ethane/ethylene to their new crackers.

Huge new plants going up in Antwerp and in at least two cities in China.

The amount of gaseous hydrocarbons brought to market via this Shale Revolution is simply unfathomable.

I will post this article as a stand-alone post.

 

Richness, GPM, from a "white paper:

Associated gas is produced as a by-product of oil production and the oil recovery process. After the production fluids are brought to the surface, they are separated at a tank battery at or near the production lease into a hydrocarbon liquid stream (Crude Oil or Condensate), a produced water stream (brine or salty water) and a gaseous stream.

The gaseous stream is traditionally very rich (Rich Gas) in natural gas liquids (NGLs).

NGLs are defined as Ethane, Propane, Butanes, and Pentanes and “Heaviers” (higher molecular weight hydrocarbons) (C5+). The C5+ product is commonly referred to as Natural Gasoline.

Rich gas will have a high heating value and a high HDP. When referring to NGLs in the gas stream, the term GPM (gallons per thousand cubic feet) is used as a measure of hydrocarbon richness. The terms “rich gas” and “lean gas” are commonly used in the gas processing industry. They are not precise indicators but only indicate the relative NGL content.

HDP: hydrocarbon dew point --

the water dew point is the temperature at which water vapor will condense to liquid water. The water content in a pipeline is already covered by tariff provisions and is mentioned here for illustrative purposes. Similarly, the hydrocarbon dew point (HDP) is the temperature at which hydrocarbons will begin to condense; hence the expression "hydrocarbon liquid drop out."

Coronavirus Update; A Record-Breaking 105 US Children Have Died From Flu So Far This Season -- February 22, 2020

It took longer than usual, but the daily global coronavirus numbers have finally been released. The numbers look good, again, as does the trend.

I track the coronavirus story at the link at the top of the sidebar at the right. Or you can directly to the global site. Some observations:

• growth factor is trending down;
• total deaths, change in total, day-over-day is down to 4% -- the lowest number yet;
• daily deaths, change in daily, day-over-day was another negative number, this time down 12 percent, day-over-day;

This is incredibly good news.

I'm reminded of FDR's line: "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." The mainstream press continues to suggest the coronavirus situation is getting worse. It may be. I don't know but the numbers look pretty good on February 22, 2020.

This is what is concerning according to the mainstream press: Coronavirus has jumped international borders and is now surging in South Korea. So, what are the numbers in South Korea?

• 556 total cases
• 120 new cases
• total deaths: four
• total new deaths.... drum roll .... two

Go to that link.

There were no new deaths in any country, anywhere --- except for those two deaths in South Korea.

New cases, day-over-day: except for China, which had 648, and South Korea, 120, not one country had more than one new case. New cases in the past 24 hours outside China and South Korea:

• Japan: one
• Australia: one

Growth factor:

Daily deaths:

Meanwhile, the really sad reality, US only:

Bakken Ethane And An Ethane Cracker, BTU Analytics, Readers' Comments -- February 22, 2020

See this news story also, link here. 

Hess Midstream Partners LP is expanding natural gas processing capacity at its 250-MMcfd Tioga gas plant in North Dakota, north of the Missouri River.

The planned 150-MMcfd expansion will add residue and y-grade liquids processing capacity to the existing full-fractionation and ethane-extraction capability of the current plant, Hess Midstream said.

The expansion—for which product takeaway has been secured and which will raise total gas processing capacity at Tioga to 400 MMcfd—is scheduled to enter service in mid-2021 at a total cost of about $150 million.

Following completion of its 100-MMcfd Little Missouri 4 gas processing plant in McKenzie County, ND—a joint venture with Targa Resources Corp.—scheduled for some time in third-quarter 2019 and the Tioga expansion, Hess Midstream said it will have 500 MMcfd of net gas processing capacity in the Bakken region.

The Tioga expansion comes amid continued Bakken growth from Hess and third parties that has created additional demand for processing capacity north of the Missouri River, said John Gatling, Hess Midstream’s chief operating officer.

Re-posting:

[An] incredible statistic, which comes from the Bakken, and from a reader in response to this post. This is the comment from that reader regarding all the ethane coming out of the Bakken (a reminder for those who are receiving royalties: natural gas is primarily methane, a one-carbon gas; ethane, propane, and butane are the C2 - C4 gases).

An eerie point in this story that the EXTRA Bakken ethane that needs to be pulled out of the gas (not all of it, just the extra) would be enough to fill a cracker.

https://btuanalytics.com/bakken-gas-quality/. This is an incredibly good article, dated February 11, 2020. I will come back to this one. It's so important that I have archived it.

Later: I have spent the last hour or so trying to sort out this "BTU Analytics" story, and still haven't found what I wanted. A reader that really, really understands this, and really provides me helpful information, put this article into perspective:

Theoretically, a $6 billion cracker could be built in North Dakota and have an almost indefinite amount of 'free' ethane feedstock for decades. 

The qoutation marks surrounding 'free' are only due to the needed processing (fractionation) and piping to this theoretical cracker.

That 90,000 bbld rejected ethane is less than a single Appalachian Basin operator - Antero - rejects every single day.

Meanwhile, India (Gail and Reliance) has started a brand new industry - along with European Ineos - in constructing fleets of massive ships to transport American ethane/ethylene to their new crackers.

Huge new plants going up in Antwerp and in at least two cities in China.

The amount of gaseous hydrocarbons brought to market via this Shale Revolution is simply unfathomable.

This was posted earlier but deserved a stand-alone post. 

Richness, GPM, from a "white paper:

Associated gas is produced as a by-product of oil production and the oil recovery process. After the production fluids are brought to the surface, they are separated at a tank battery at or near the production lease into a hydrocarbon liquid stream (Crude Oil or Condensate), a produced water stream (brine or salty water) and a gaseous stream. 

The gaseous stream is traditionally very rich (Rich Gas) in natural gas liquids (NGLs). NGLs are defined as Ethane, Propane, Butanes, and Pentanes and “Heaviers” (higher molecular weight hydrocarbons) (C5+). The C5+ product is commonly referred to as Natural Gasoline. 

Rich gas will have a high heating value and a high HDP. When referring to NGLs in the gas stream, the term GPM (gallons per thousand cubic feet) is used as a measure of hydrocarbon richness. The terms “rich gas” and “lean gas” are commonly used in the gas processing industry. They are not precise indicators but only indicate the relative NGL content.

Disclaimer: I absolutely don't understand so much of this. What little I understand: this is a huge, huge story for the Bakken. Yeah, I get the "chemistry," but what I don't understand is the economics of this. The BTU Analytics article and the input from readers is a great help. Thank you.

Two New Permits -- Saturday, February 22, 2020

Active rigs:

$53.38	2/22/2020	02/22/2019	02/22/2018	02/22/2017	02/22/2016
Active Rigs	54	66	56	43	39

Two new permits, #37403 - #37404, inclusive, from the daily activity report, February 21, 2020:

• Operators: MRO, Liberty Resources
• Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
• Comments: 
• MRO has a permit for a Standfest USA well in Reunion Bay, NESE section 8-151-93;
• Liberty Resources has a permit for an Esther permit in Reunion Bay, NWNW section 28-158-93;

Thirteen permits renewed:

• NP Resources (12): four Mosser Federal permits; two Ellison Creek Federal permits; and three Beaver Creek permits, all in Billings County; three Barkland permits in Golden Valley County;
• EOG: one Clarks Creek permit (#33334) in McKenzic County; see graphic below;

One permit canceled:

• Bruin: a Wm Brown permit (#37122) in Williams County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35901, n/d, Slawson, Slasher Federal 7-22-27MH, Big Bend, t--; cum --; Three Forks first bench;
• 35900, n/d, Slawson Federal 2-22-27H, Big Bend, t--; cum --; middle Bakken;

EOG permit renewed (from above), #33334:

1.5 Percent Of All Corporate Taxes Paid To The US Came From Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway -- February 22, 2020

Maybe more on this later, but this seems to speak for itself, link here:

Warren Buffett wants to let you know that Berkshire Hathaway is paying taxes.

“In 2019, Berkshire sent $3.6 billion to the U.S. Treasury to pay its current income tax,” Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders. “The U.S. government collected $243 billion from corporate income tax payments during the same period. From these statistics, you can take pride that your company delivered 11⁄2% of the federal income taxes paid by all of corporate America.”

Berkshire Hathaway is massive. The $560 billion company had operating earnings of $24 billion in 2019. Including all of its operating companies, Berkshire employs nearly 400 thousand people.

It would be interesting to see similar numbers from the MAGA companies: Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon.

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Update On "Mount Fargo"

Link here to story and great video from KXNET.

Lutefisk -- First Lutheran Church -- Williston, ND -- February 22, 2020

Bernie Sanders Lake Front Cabin -- For The Archives -- February 22, 2020

Bernie: like thousands of Vermonters, we, too, have a lakeside cabin. From Snopes, and if it's from Snopes you know it has to be true:

Jane Sanders said she and her husband paid cash — $575,000 — for the four-bedroom summer house they recently bought in North Hero on the Lake Champlain shore. She said she sold her share of her family’s long-time vacation home in Bridgton, Maine, to her brother for $150,000, added some money from her retirement account and from an advance her husband got on a book he is writing to come up with the money to buy the couple’s third home.

And not only that, they paid cash -- almost $600,000 -- for the "cabin." Anyone who plops down $600,000 in cash for a third home tells me they have no financial worries.

Later: check Zillow.com and search North Hero, VT. A $600,000 lakeside cabin is an anomaly, one-off; an exception. It appears the average value of a North Hero, VT, cabin is about $200,000, among the "good ones."

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"Someone" With Financial Worries: The EU

Short $85 billion.

After the UK leaves.

From the Daily [London] Mail, so you know the story will be good!

Link here. 

But it's even better than expected: Sweden -- birthplace of St Greta -- refuses to spend any more money to fight climate change.

Sweden's attitude: we will let Boris swelter in the land of no air conditioners.

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Another Doofus

From the WSJ, by Jason Zweig:

Morgan Stanley’s takeover of E*Trade Financial Corp. for $13 billion shows how drastically the brokerage industry’s business model has changed.

Firms no longer want to offer investment products from all sources. Instead, they want to milk their customers’ cash and manage all the assets themselves. Investors need to understand the rules of the new game.

For decades, big banks and brokers aspired to become “financial supermarkets” where consumers could open bank accounts and buy stocks and bonds, mutual funds, insurance and the like.

Here, hold my Schwab statement.

For a gazillion years, for reasons (somewhat) out of my control, I had a small equity account at a local bank. The annual fee was "only" 0.5% and trading fees (commissions) were $4.95/trade. Sounds good, doesn't it? Only 0.5% and $4.95/trade.

On average, over the years, I made one trade/year.

Over the years, I gradually built up a dividend-focused, growth-focused equity account. Yes, growth and dividend (not value and dividend) and after thirty- forty years it's become a very nice account. The dividends alone would pay for living expenses for a year, if need be. When I started the account, I had few options, and 0.5% was not an issue. The portfolio has exceeded all my expectations. I still trade on average once/year. (Thank goodness I don't have automatic dividend reinvestment.) It now turns out that the 0.5% eliminates the entire dividend for one of the better dividend payers.

The trust department at the bank was simply acting as a bookkeeper and getting an incredible fee. A fee that would cover my annual mortgage (if I had a mortgage). And that was to make one trade/year.

As far as "choice" goes, about which Jason Zweig is so concerned, Schwab offers a gazillion ways to invest, including competitive money market accounts. And Schwab has so many non-Schwab partners, there is [practically] no limit on where/how to invest.

If one is only earning 0.3% in a "sweep" account at a brokerage (including Schwab)  you are doing it all wrong.

Yes, I'm closing that bank account and moving it to Schwab.

Canada: Still Closed To Business; US Navy Grows; Coronavirus -- Is South Korea Next? -- February 22, 2020

On February 13, 2020, I noted that Canada was (again) closed to / for business. It appears things have gotten worse, if that's even possible. This was supposed to have been over by now, but it continues. From The WSJ (and if it's in the WSJ, you know it's a huge story and you know it's true):

TYENDINAGA MOHAWK TERRITORY, Ontario—A small cluster of flags and windswept tents sits near railroad tracks east of Toronto, where protesters are preventing trains from passing through a key commercial corridor, threatening Canada’s already fragile economy.

Activists from the Mohawk community here say their encampment was set up to show support for a group of indigenous leaders on the other side of the country, in British Columbia, who are trying to stop construction of a natural-gas pipeline. The makeshift blockade, which has caused widespread supply-chain and passenger disruption in busy Ontario, is the latest sign of how indigenous groups in Canada are stepping up their civil disobedience amid long-simmering grievances with government leaders.

“We’re going to stand up and stand our ground,” said Andrew Brant, a teacher in Tyendinaga who is protesting alongside those at the encampment. He said the group wants the Canadian government to meet with hereditary leaders, who are unelected but seen as responsible for traditional land and who oppose the pipeline.

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US Military

MAGA

I was completely unaware of this. Again, another big deal on so many levels. Thank you, Mr Trump. US Navy will acquire thirteen F-35s to support amphibious operations.

And, oh, by the way, who is going to appreciate this the most: the US Marines. The US Navy gets them there, but it's the US Marines that do the actual assault. At least that's the meme.

From the source (one will need to google it):

Launching a massive, fast-paced air assault from the sea, providing close-air support for amphibious assault forces, and bringing forward-operating surveillance and networking technology to maritime warfare are all part of the changing operational calculus introduced by adding F-35s to maritime attack.

With the goal of refining and preparing for these kinds of emerging maritime combat tactics, a high-tech U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship recently completed a deployment mission armed with as many as 13 F-35s.

The Navy’s USS America, a first-in-class new generation amphib, traveled the seas armed with 13 F-35s, senior Navy officials said. This brings an unprecedented measure of air attack and surveillance possibilities, including the option to provide stealth air support to amphibious assaults.

Amphibs could offer a smaller, more mobile type of aircraft carrier power projection capability, Vice Adm. Rich Brown, commander, Naval Surfaces Forces, told an audience Jan. 14 at the 32nd Annual Surface Navy Association Symposium.

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Coronavirus Update 

The coronavirus is tracked at the link at the top of the sidebar to the right.

Or you can go to this link directly. Observations:

• the Chinese are still using the Iowa-DNC tabulating software to count cases
• this is what really, really spooked the markets: South Korea looks ready to get hit, and hit hard, by the virus;
• the "overall growth factor" continues to trend down;
• total deaths, changes in total, now at 5% -- a record low; and half of what it was only one week ago (10% then);
• daily deaths, change in daily, not at a negative 7 percent; in the past twelve days:
• five days with an increase day-over-day;
• one day: no change, day-over-day;
• six days with a negative percent, day-over-day

And now this from the New York media:

At an emergency meeting in Beijing held last Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke about the need to contain the coronavirus and set up a system to prevent similar epidemics in the future.

A national system to control biosecurity risks must be put in place “to protect the people’s health,” Xi said, because lab safety is a “national security” issue.

Xi didn’t actually admit that the coronavirus now devastating large swathes of China had escaped from one of the country’s bioresearch labs.

But the very next day, evidence emerged suggesting that this is exactly what happened, as the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive entitled:

“Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”

Read that again. It sure sounds like China has a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes where they belong, doesn’t it? And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?

Fertilizer, Tractors, Propane, Deere, Bloomberg, And All That Jazz -- February 22, 2020

The Farm Page

Bloomberg: to the list of deplorables, add the American farmer. 

From January 16, 2020 -- re-posting:

Deere: buy a bigger tractor. Deere aims to reap billions with "corn warrior" technologies.

The average acre of corn planted in the U.S. yields more than 170 bushels. A bushel—an old measure of weight—is 56 pounds of corn kernels. That means corn planted on an acre—the standard U.S. measure of farming area that is a chain times a furlong, two other old measures—generates almost 5 tons of food.

That is impressive, but there are more-impressive feats of corn.

The top of the range—the best farmers can do—is more than 600 bushels an acre. One farmer grew 616 bushels of corn on an irrigated acre with Corteva (CTVA) seed in the national corn-growing contest.

Yes, there is such a contest.

The farmers competing—some of whom call themselves corn warriors—are spending a lot of time and money ensuring the health of each corn plant. Nothing is too small to measure. It might not be practical or cost-effective to adopt all the techniques used to generate incredible crop yields en masse. But the yields they achieve demonstrate the upper fertility limit of American cropland.

A few months ago, I posted: farmers need to buy a bigger tractor and a bigger propane tank.

Now this: Deere's unexpected rise in quarterly profits sends shares soaring. Link here.

Deere & Co on Friday reported an unexpected increase in first-quarter profit and retained its full-year earnings forecast as signs of stabilization in the U.S. farm sector offset weak demand for construction machines, sending its shares soaring.

"Its shares were last up 6.4% at $176.25 in pre-market trade." Its shares were last up 6.4% at $176.25 in pre-market trade.

The world's largest farm equipment maker's earnings in the past quarters were buffeted by a nearly two-year-long U.S.-China trade war that hit U.S. agricultural exports, leaving farmers struggling to turn a profit.

But President Donald Trump's interim trade deal with China has raised hopes of a recovery in farm machinery demand.

From The WSJ yesterday: Trump is prepared to give more aid to farmers. [Bloomberg: it doesn't take any gray matter to be a farmer.]

President Trump said the U.S. would consider a third round of aid payments for American farmers who have borne the brunt of retaliation for U.S. tariffs for much of the past two years.

Although the U.S. has said farmers would benefit from its signing of a phase-one trade deal with China and its ratification of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Mr. Trump raised the possibility that new aid payments may be necessary until those deals bear fruit. The USMCA was signed in late January and the China deal didn’t take effect until February 14, 2020.

If farmers “need additional aid until such time as the trade deals with China, Mexico, Canada and others fully kick in, that aid will be provided by the federal government,” the president said on Twitter on Friday.

Fertilizer: US fertilizer consumption to rise with acreage -- Argus Media.

US fertilizer consumption this year will be the highest in over a decade as farmers are set to plant 94mn acres of corn and 85mn acres of soybeans.

Nitrogen consumption should be 4pc higher than last year at 8.83mn st N across corn, soybean, wheat and cotton, Argus estimates. Phosphates consumption would rise by 5pc to 4.19mn st P2O5, potash by 6pc to 4.32mn st K2O and sulfur up by 4pc to 392,000st S.

In remarks at a conference yesterday, US Department of Agriculture chief economist Robert Johansson said that US corn acreage would rise to 94mn acres — toward the upper end of previous industry estimates — as forward prices and the corn:soybean price ratio are favorable to corn. Last year farmers planted just under 90mn acres of corn as flooding and inclement weather prevented fieldwork.

But Johansson also noted that the price ratio was not even, with basis in the Dakotas favoring soybean but eastern Corn Belt and southeast prices favoring corn.