Eleven Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 22, 2019

For a look at early production numbers for some wells coming off the confidential list later today, click here. 

WTI: jumps 2% in pre-market trading; up $1.35; trading above $65.40; Trump says "no." 
Over at twitter, "did Saudi Arabia over-comply by almost 500,000 bopd with its production quote in anticipation of zero Iran sanction waiver renewals? I am unable to follow the argument here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Wells coming off the confidential list over the long weekend, Monday -- Monday, April 22, 2019: 73 wells for the month; 73 wells for the quarter

• 34949, 373, Kraken, Jefferson 31-30 2H, Corinth, t10/18; cum 100K 2/19;
• 34948, 313, Kraken Operating, Jefferson 31-30 1TFH, Corinth, t11/18; cum 83K 2/19;
• 33875, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 2-29-32-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Sunday, April 21, 2019: 70 wells for the month; 70 wells for the quarter

• 33876, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 5-20-17-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 34785, 1,083, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, Eigthmile, t11/18; 100K 2/19;
• 34461, 1,365, CLR, Peterson 3-29H1, East Fork, t1/19; cum 44K 2/19;

Saturday, April 20, 2019: 67 wells for the month; 67 wells for the quarter

• 34295, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-95-36D_35-3H, Charlson, no production data,
• 33877, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 6-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 27666, 1,723, Whiting, Periot 44-20HU, Dollar Joe, t11/18; cum 109K 2/19;

Friday, April 19, 2019: 64 wells for the month; 64 wells for the quarter

• 34460, 1,934, CLR, Peterson 2-29HSL, East Fork, 1/19; cum 55K 2/19;
• 33878, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie-2-20-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Active rigs:

$65.42	4/22/2019	04/22/2018	04/22/2017	04/22/2016	04/22/2015
Active Rigs	63	59	49	29	88

RBN Energy: the Reliance crude gathering system in the northern Midland Basin, part 2.

Crude oil production in the Permian Basin is now approaching 4 MMb/d, and with more than 2 MMb/d of new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the resource-rich play set to come online over the next 12 months, there soon will be plenty of room for more production growth. To efficiently transport crude to takeaway pipes, however, producers and shippers need ever-growing networks of gathering systems in the Permian’s sweet spots where much of the drilling and completion activity is occurring. Ideally, these systems offer their users a high degree of optionality — that is, interconnections with multiple takeaway pipelines to different markets — so they can capture the best prices for their oil. Today, we continue our review of major gathering networks in the Permian with a look at Reliance Gathering’s nearly 250-mile system in the Midland, TX, area.

Crescent Point Energy, Lone Tree Lake, Northeast of Williston -- April 21, 2019 -- Do I Count 19 Wells All Within A Mile Of Each Other?

The graphic:

The wells (to be updated later):

California, The "Greenest" State In The Union -- April 21, 2019

See this post re: price of gasoline on the west coast. At the link, see first comment. In my replyI had to do some fact checking. Here's the update, from  The Daily Caller, last summer:

More than 56 percent of the crude oil received by California refineries were extracted in foreign countries, according to California Energy Commission data.

California, once the third-largest oil state, is now more reliant than ever on foreign oil. The biggest share of California’s oil imports come from Saudi Arabia, which makes up 29 percent of foreign crude flowing into the state.

More than 70 percent of foreign oil imports to the state come from OPEC members, including Iraq, Kuwait and Ecuador.

California’s share of oil coming from foreign sources has ballooned since the late 1990s. Decades of state policies restricting drilling played a role, as did declining production in Alaska. 

Much more at the link.

The good news: now that Jerry Brown is out of office, replaced by an even more progressive governor, things in California should improve. LOL.

By the way, with all the snow and rain California received this year, California is greener than ever.

Here's an update on California CBR from oilprice earlier this year: California's CBR imports climb to near record in 2018, data points:

• 447,063 bopd, first nine months in 2018
• increased exports from New Mexico, Wyoming, and Canada -- California's three CBR suppliers
• increase most marked in Canadian crude imports
• jumped from 116,000 in 1Q18 to 275,000 in 3Q18
• New Mexico, same time period, from 80,000 bopd to 207,000 bopd
• and look at this: Califronia refines as much oil today as it did back in 1982 -- I thought everyone in California drove EVs now
• back in 1982: most of California's oil came from local (California) fields
• now, more than half comes from abroad -- 56.7% -- vs 31% local California oil in 2017
• biggest supplier for California: Saudi Arabia (and the OPEC basket is about $10/bbl more than WTI
• #2: Ecuador
• #3: Colombia

From the linked article:

Despite its demand for oil, the California government seems to be dead set against any local production.

Last September, Governor Jerry Brown signed into law a bill that aimed to discourage oil companies from taking advantage from the opening up of federal lands in California to drilling by effectively banning infrastructure necessary for offshore drilling, including docks, pipelines, and other onshore installations.

Connecting The Dots: Pigs, Corn, China, Floods, And More -- April 21, 2019

North Dakota.

Global warming.

Midwest braces for long recovery after devastating floods. Link to WSJ article.

Swine flu in China.

UNP.  BNSF (BRK-B).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Kroger struggles. This is a long, long article over at The WSJ. One would assume readers of The WSJ would be somewhat bright, smart, sophisticated. Not so fast. Read the article, Kroger struggles. Then read the very first comment, from "harry gallant,"

This country needs a good starvation.  Then perhaps,  they will realize the importance of our farmers.  They are struggling big time.  Doubt any corn will be planted in the midwest this year.

Some years ago I read that due to global warming, and US energy policies set in motion by guys like Obama, North Dakota farmers were gradually switching from wheat to corn, and the corn belt was moving northwest from Iowa toward northeast Montana, So let's see.

US News, April 1, 2019, just a couple of weeks ago:

Back to swine flu in China. What do American pigs (the four-legged kind) eat?

From where does most US corn come?

What states were spared all that spring flooding?

Yeah, the dots all connect.

The neat thing about that screenshot above? From US News, not some North Dakota trade journal. Simply amazing.

I'm in a Lana Del Rey mood and that's what I'm listening but this is the song that better fits this page.

Twist My Sobriety, Tanita Tikaram

Investors Angst -- April 21, 2019

Link to WSJ article. More to follow.

April 21, 2019 -- Grocers

Link to WSJ article. This is a long, long article -- Kroger, Target, Walmart. E-commerce. Lots of issues. More to follow.

Shorts: Natural Gas, Crude Oil, WTL, And All That Jazz -- April 21, 2019

Natural gas: we've discussed this for quite some time. Now oilprice suggests the same thing. The nation's natural gas inventories will be quickly replenished.

The right kind of oil: we've also been talking about this for several years. Now oilprice is talking about it. Also, note, WTL. This could spell and incredible challenge for Bakken oil. By the way, at the linked article, the linked oilprice article does not mention the reason we are in this predicament: Obama killed the Keystone XL.

Argus announces two new benchmarks; and, here; 

So much to blog about; so many links and cross-references to make. I will come back and "fill this out," but want to this posted. So much more to post today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

For those wanting to invest in oil, the second linked article provides a huge hint. 

The MRO Chauncey-Winona Pad -- April 21, 2019

Locator: 13001WINONA.

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked here, FAQ #9. 

The wells:

• 37089, 5,502, MRO, Jonah USA ... 2H, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 105K 2/21; 53K over 17 days extrapolates to 93,500 bbls over 30 days; see this post; cum 203K 4/21; t1/21; cum 395K 4/23; cum 424K 3/24;
  
• 36221, drl/NC-->6,420, MRO, Daniel USA 11-2TFH-2B, 33-053-08982, Antelope, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 122K 2/21; initial production, 84K over 25 days extrapolates to 100,800 bbls crude oil over 30 days; fracked 11/22/20 - 12/2/20; 8 million gallons of water; 52% fresh water by mass; 30% produced water by mass; see this post; cum 276K 7/21; came off line 7/21; t1/21; cum 434K 4/23; 462K 3/24;
  
• 36222, 7,083, MRO, Morsette USA 11-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/21; cum 188K 4/21; t1/21; cum 368K 4/23; cum 385K 3/24;
  
• 36223, 7,146, MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH, first production, 1/21; t12/20; cum 130K 2/21; cum 229K 4/21; cum 436K 4/23; cum 466K 3/24;
  
• 36224, 3,951, MRO, Valarie USA 21-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/20; cum 194K 4/21; 228K 7/21; came off line 7/21; cum 342K 4/23; cum 376K 3/24;
  
• ***33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 596K 2/21; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; off line 3/20; back on line 8/20; nice return to production; off line 1/21 back on line 2/21; cum 711K 4/23; cum 744K 3/24;
  
• 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 479K 2/21; back on line 8/20; production okay; off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; off line 7/21; cum 486K 7/21; t3/18; cum 531K 4/23; cum 549K 3/24;
  
• 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 429K 2/21; did not come off line; but then off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t4/18; cum 489K 4/23; cum 528K 3/24;
  
• 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 565K 2/21; did not come off line; but then came off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t3/18; cum 650K 4/23; cum 697K 3/24;
  
• 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 365K 2/21; did not come off line; but then came off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t4/18; cum 416K 4/23; cum 429K 3/24;
  

Updates

 

June 24, 2023: production update for all the wells above.

 

July 1, 2021: the graphic --

July 1, 2021: a closer look at the Valarie USA well and the Morisette USA well. 

April 3, 2021: updates; huge wells.

 

Original Post

While waiting we can take another look at this staggering MRO well:

• 33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 522K 12/19; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2019	28	15277	15338	6884	27524	14729	10738
SANISH	1-2019	31	22348	22342	8488	40477	26451	11137
SANISH	12-2018	29	24357	24159	8106	34275	27599	3824
SANISH	11-2018	9	5692	5869	2667	11622	8037	2768
SANISH	10-2018	31	23790	23782	16121	46764	32897	10770
SANISH	9-2018	30	28907	28982	13617	55630	28895	23478
SANISH	8-2018	31	34545	34608	16623	55568	21058	32353
SANISH	7-2018	31	42992	43073	20637	58782	17304	38864
SANISH	6-2018	30	63854	63992	25526	86756	13917	68246
SANISH	5-2018	29	57292	57449	31612	69111	38908	26595
SANISH	4-2018	23	73742	73099	4701	100353	30645	61613
SANISH	3-2018	2	304	295	0	1286	15	892

It's unlikely there will be enough second bench wells to evaluate for the next USGS Bakken survey (unless that's the reason for the delay).

That well is on a 10-well pad in Antelope oil field. Interestingly five are completed and producing, but four are still permitted only:

• 37089, drl, MRO, Jonah USA ...
• 36221, drl, MRO, Daniel USA ...
• 36222, drl, MRO, Morsette USA ...
• 36223, ros -- January 18, 2020, MRO, Sherman USA ...
• 36224, drl, MRO, Valarie USA ...
• 33412, see above,
• 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 446K 12/19;
• 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 376K 12/19;
• 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 505K 12/19;
• 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 329K 12/19;

Two neighboring, older wells to the east:

• 18471, 380, MRO, Hunts Along USA 12-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/11; cum 233K 12/19; huge jump in production:

SANISH	7-2018	31	16853	16732	9108	22265	9157	12106
SANISH	6-2018	1	152	202	202	101	35	58
SANISH	5-2018	9	5729	5831	2503	5563	577	4336
SANISH	4-2018	10	11627	11845	1149	18321	0	15788
SANISH	3-2018	6	3719	3347	0	3000	0	2180
SANISH	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2017	8	178	357	38	283	0	236
SANISH	4-2017	30	986	1369	80	1381	0	1092
SANISH	3-2017	31	1042	947	115	1448	0	1147
SANISH	2-2017	28	962	1201	105	1336	0	1065
SANISH	1-2017	31	1112	1261	110	1540	0	1235

• 17008, TA/298, MRO, Myrmidon 1-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/08; cum 56K 5/17;

From Each According To His Ability, To Each According To His Needs -- Looks Like Bernie, Beto, Biden Have Lots Of Needs --- April 21, 2019.

From an undisclosed site:

Their tax returns revealed that each of the Democratic candidates gave an embarrassingly low percentage of their sizable income to charity in recent years. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren won the title as most charitable, giving a whopping 5.5 percent of her household’s $906,000 income to charity in 2017. 

In second place is Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who, along with his wife, gave 4 percent of their income in 2017. 

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and her husband contributed 2 percent of their $215,000. 

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar contributed 1.9 percent out of $338,500, while California Sen. Kamala Harris contributed just 1.4 percent out of $1.9 million.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders just became a millionaire in 2016, raking in $1,073,333. Yet he gave only $10,600 to charity — less than 1 percent of his income. He upped his generosity in 2017 and 2018, donating an "impressive" 3 percent. [Once one announces a presidential run, this percentage always increases.]

Finally, Beto O’Rourke and his wife gave 0.3 percent of their $366,455 to charity in 2017. Good news: that’s up from 0.2 percent in 2016.

Don’t worry, though, O’Rourke’s campaign team has announced they are busy looking for the “thousands of dollars” of charitable giving that weren’t, for some reason, reflected on his tax returns. The American people anxiously await their excavation.

Beto, Beto, Beto. What gives?

However, I've always said that true charity is not reflected on IRS filings.

Inactive Wells + DUCs In The Bakken -- April 21, 2019

Coincidentally I spoke with a former "oil man" yesterday. He follows natural gas, not crude oil.

He was completely unaware of this data point, from the February, 2019, North Dakota/Bakken director's cut:

Off line:

• DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report (tracked here)
• inactive: 1,667, up 150 from last report
• total: 2,561 (up from 2,384 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)

A total of 2,561 wells off-line. That's two-to-three times the number of wells that will be drilled in North Dakota this year.

Look at the jump in the number of "inactive" wells -- up 150 from the previous report.

Just saying.

Link here. 

EOG's 2919H / 1919H Austin Wells In The Parshall -- April 21, 2019

17614, see this post. Note: 805,000 bbls and this was a very short lateral drilled back in 2009. And production has recently jumped four-fold.

Wells coming off the confidential list this next week. Note the "chronologic" numbers for these wells.

Some EOG Austin wells in the Parshall:

The graphic (clicking on the image will enlarge it):

The wells:

17263, 3,124, Murex, Chandler James 25-36H, Sanish, t10/08; cum 1.138382 million bbls;

24077, PNC, EOG, Asutin 112-2919HC, Parshall,
24076 (alongside #24077), 1,049, EOG, Austin 31-2919H, Parshall, F, t9/14; cum 721K 2/19; nice jump in 12/18;

26516, loc, EOG, Austin 40-3204H,
26514, loc, EOG, Austin 41-3204H,

34343, loc, EOG, Austin 407-2919H,
34345, loc, EOG, Austin 404-2919H,

34550, conf, EOG, Austin 411-2919H, producing,
34551, conf, EOG, Austin 112-2919H,producing,
34552, conf, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, producing, and a very nice well;

17614, see this post;

32261, loc, EOG, Austin 97-3204H,
32262, loc, EOG, Austin 98-3204H,
32263, loc, EOG, Austin 99-3204H,

Parental advisory:

Ride, Lana Del Rey

Reminder: Tomorrow Is Earth Day 2019

Go out and hug a roughneck.

Billions of people in North America depend on glaciers -- NY Times -- can't make this stuff up -- 

Meanwhile, Passover, this week, and Easter, today.

Easter.

From the pope: another elite telling me to do with less --

Meanwhile, the view from the pulpit:

*********************** 

Poor Side Of Town 

Poor Side of Town, Johnny Rivers

************************** 

How I Found Them

Johnny Rivers: freshman roommate in college
Shakespeare: freshman roommate in college
Henry James: female acquaintance of some years ago
love of chemistry: high school chemistry teacher
Helen of Troy: brother-in-law
heterosexuality: second grade teacher (LOL)
investing: my dad
feminism: first love
Judaism: love of my life (wife)

*********************************

Helicopter Moms

Link at WSJ.

By the way, helicopter moms are being pushed aside by "snowplow parents."

What Condition Is My Condition In? Just Dropped In To See -- April 21, 2019

Google, "Bakken oil": the blog shows up on the second page; #17 of 9,750,000 results.

Google, "Bakken oil blogs": the blog shows up on the first page, occupying #2 and #3 spots, of 2,420,000 results; preceded only by bakkenoilbiz; the latter's current page shows Ryan Zinke's resignation

Google, "Bakken oil blog": of 2,730,000 results, the blog sits at #1; #2 is the Bakken Blog, followed by Bakken Oil - Jobs; and, bakkenoilbiz. 

Just Dropped In (To See What My Condition My Condition Was In, Kenny Rogers

Pageviews/Day

April 21, 2019, 8:44 a.m. Central Time: 11,979,559 pageviews = 84.5 days since last update = 226,762 pageviews since last update = 2,684 hits/day
 
January 26, 2019, 4:45 p.m. Central Time: 11,752,797 pageviews = 2,525 hits/day (all-time low)

August 8, 2018, 9:53 a.m. Central Time: 11,321,733 pageviews = 3,513 hits/day
April 5, 2018, 12:58 p.m. Central Time: 10,991,442 pageviews = 3,688 hits/day
April 3, 2018, 11:53 p.m. Central Time: 10,984,065 pageviews = 3,744 hits/day
April 2, 2018, 12:06 p.m. Central Time, 10,980,321 pageviews = 3,729 hits/day
December 14, 2017, 10:22 a.m Central Time, 10,573,799 pageviews, 278 days = 3,478 hits/day; first day with ads
March 11, 2017, 7:00 p.m. Central Time, 9,606,964 pageviews, 38 days = 3, 947 hits/day
February 1, 2017, 7:00 p.m. Central Time, 9,456,965 pageviews; 8 days = 3,922 hits/day
January 24, 2017, 5:00 p.m. Central Time: 9,425,582 pageviews.
December 29, 2016, 12:30 p.m.: 9,336,868, 8 days = 3,406 hits/day; holiday break
December 21, 2016, 12:30 p.m.: 9,309,617, 2 days = 24 hours = 8943 / 2 days = 4,472 hits/day;
December 19, 2016, 12:30 p.m.: 9,300,674,  13 days, 1.5 hours = 313.5 hours; 184.92/hour = 4,438 / day (Monday with two weekends)
December 6, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,242,703, one day: 5,272 hits / day (Monday-to-Tuesday)
December 5, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,237,431; one day:  4,953 hits / day (Sunday-to-Monday)
December 4, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,232,478; two days: 9,410 hits / 2 days = 4,705 hits / day (Friday/Saturday)
December 2, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,223,068; 25 hours; 4,235 hits / 25 hours or 4,066 hits/day
December 1, 2016, 10:00 a.m.: 9,218,833; 48 hours; 3,651 hits/day
November 29, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,211,530; exactly 24 hours; 3,907 hits / day
November 28, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,207,623; 106 days; 318,735 hits / 106 days = 3,007 hits / day (with Bakken 2.0 I started noting that the number of hits was increasing)
August 14, 2016: 2:15 p.m. 8,888,888; 16.5 days; 47,744 hits / 16.5 days = 2,894 hits / day (which appears to be a record low)
July 29, 2016, 4:00 a.m.: 8,841,144; 124 days;  385,032 hits / 124 days = 3,105 hits / day
March 26, 2016, 3:00 p.m.: 8,456,112; 102 days; 316,691 hits / 102 days = 3,105 hits / day
December 15, 2015, 10:00 p.m.: 8,139,421; 81 days; 244,017 hits / 81 days = 3,013 hits / day
September 25, 2015, 11:30 p.m.: 7,895,404; 122 days; 391,912 hits / 122 days = 3,212 hits / day
May 26, 2015, 10:50 p.m.: 7,503,492; 42 days; 138,825 hits / 42 days = 3,305 hits / day
April 14, 2015, 10:20 p.m.: 7,364,667; 38 days; 3,607 / day
March 7, 2015, 10:40 p.m.: 7,227,613; 20 days; 3,570 / day
February 15, 2015, 11:50 p.m.: 7,156,204; 6 days; 3,797 / day
February 9, 2015, 11:50 p.m.: 7,133,420; 34 days; 3,924 / day
January 6, 2015, 11:50 p.m.: 7,000,000; 23 days: 4,283 / day
December 14, 2014, 9:40 p.m.; 6,901,501 / 26 days: 4,389 / day
November 18, 2014, 9:40 p.m.: 6,787,392 / 60 days: 3,755 / day
September 18, 2014, 6:40 p.m.: 6,562,034 /  114 days: ~ 3,750 /day
May 27, 2014, 5:30 p.m.: 6,134,532: ~ 3,414/day
May 20, 2014, 5:30 p.m.: 6,110,630: ~ 3,815/day
April 21, 2014, 5:30 pm: 6,000,000 +/- one or two (from January 26, about 3,858/day)
January 26, 2014, 7:36 pm: 5,672,024
April 30, 2013, 1:25 pm: 4,503,783 (~ 6,446/day)

April 1, 2013, 9:28 am: 4,316,824 (~ 6,820/day)

March 5, 2013, 8:26 pm: 4,139,487

February 14, 2013, 12:38 pm: 4,003,893

Overnight, February 13 - 14, 2013: 4 millionth visitor

Projected, 4 millionth visit -- February 14, 2013

February 7, 2013, 10:34 am: 3,951,795

February 5, 2013, 10:10 pm: 3,941,692

February 2, 2013, 6:40 pm: 3,917,397

January 13, 2013, midnight: 3,768,876

December 7, 2012, 9:00 pm: 3,539,177; ~ 5,890/day

December 7, 2012, 10:00 am: 3,535,852

December 6, 2012, 9:00 pm: 3,533, 287

December 5, 2012, 12:30 pm: 3,522,944

August 29, 2012, 8:00 pm: 3,003,324

July 29, 2012, 2:00 am: 2,824,722

May 19, 2012, 7:00 pm: 2,448, 351

April 25, 2012, 11:59 pm: 2,313,351

April 24, 2012, 8:00 pm: 2,305,724

April 22, 2012, 10:30 pm: 2,294,212

April 22, 2012, 10:00 am: 2,290,554

April 18, 2012, 9:00 pm: 2,272,860

April 18, 2012: 7:30 am: 2,268,233

April 17, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,266,779

April 17, 2012, 9:00 am: 2,261,783

April 16, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,259,499

April 15, 2012, 9:00 pm: 2,254,085

April 14, 2012, 10 pm: 2,248,705

April 14, 2012, 9:00 am: 2,245,945

April 13, 2012, 8:00 pm: 2,243,467

April 13, 2012, 6:30 am: 2,239,851

April 12, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,238,427

April 12, 2012, 7:30 am:2,233,226

April 11, 2012: 9:00 pm: 2,231,315 -- 7,313 hits in one day

April 11, 2012, 10:30 am: 2,227,088

April 10, 2012, 8:30 pm: 2,224,002

Another Reprieve -- Global Warming Delayed -- The Narrative Has Changed -- April 21, 2019

One wonders if Occasional-Cortex knows the difference between astronomy and astrology?

Whatever.

I would have missed this; a regular reader sent it my way.

By the way, "a deep solar minimum" has been predicted / forecast for quite some time on science-based weather sites.

NASA now predicting: A deep solar minimum is set to bring a prolonged period of colder temperatures across the globe, -- Monday, April 15, 2019.

In 2019, the Sun has been without sunspots for 59 percent of days - a sign that the solar minimum has arrived. The Sun follows cycles of roughly 11 years where it reaches a solar maximum and then a solar minimum. During a solar maximum, the Sun gives off more heat and is littered with sunspots. Less heat in a solar minimum is due to a decrease in magnetic waves.

As noted, this has been predicted for quite some time; apparently the deep solar minimum "has arrived."

Exciting time for budding meteorologists.

From the linked article:

Cosmic forecasting site Space Weather said: “An international panel of researchers led by NASA and NOAA has released a new prediction for the solar cycle: The current solar minimum is going to deepen, potentially reaching a century-class low in the next year or so.

Forever Blue, Chris Isaak

Global Renewables -- German Update -- April 21, 2019

From PV Magazine: solar once again the only winner in German renewables auctions --

In the first round of Germany’s 2019 mixed solar and wind auctions, all the successful projects were solar, continuing a trend which began last year. The Federal Network Agency received 109 bids for PV projects with a combined capacity of around 720 MW for the auction – not a single onshore wind bid was submitted. A final 18 projects, with a total capacity of 210 MW were selected.

A reader suggests Germany has maybe a two-year run with some more offshore wind before the whole thing is over.

Again, note: for the first round of Germany's 2019 mixed solar and wind auctions:

• not one onshore bid was submitted
• 18 solar projects with a total capacity of 210 MW were selected
• average: about 10 MW / project 

each project:

• 20 acres of panels
• total cost about $15 million (2016)
• cost does not include cost of connection to the grid
• so, $1.5 million / MW

In 2014:

From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":

• Solar: $3 million / MW
• Wind: $2.5 million / MW
• Natural gas: $865,000 / MW

Meanwhile, German wind, link here, and this is from a wind trade publication --

Germany in 2020 will see the first of the 2000-year turbines ending their 20-year subsidies and many are expected to be uneconomical and shutdown without it.

Energiewende has peaked out at 35% renewables, Germany just won't admit it. (and couldn't have gotten that far without backup hydro from Sweden/Norway & nuclear from France).

Just 135MW was installed in Germany in January and February 2019, 60% less than the 330MW in the same two months of 2018.

Total domestic onshore installations reached only 2,268MW in 2018, down 57% compared to 5,333MW in 2017.

Enercon expects the overall German onshore market in 2019 to shrink again to just 1.8-2GW but "will do everything it can to raise Enercon‘s domestic market share".

If the 2019 outlook materialises, and there is no improvement into 2020 in the project permitting and auction situation, "it will be clear to everyone what such a sharp reduction will mean for component suppliers and market players in Germany," warned the company.

In 2018 already, Enercon has slashed contracts with its German suppliers.

The loss in contracts contributed to some 835 job losses.

I did not post it, but there's an article in North Dakota news that energy experts in North Dakota suggest renewables close to causing grid instability. 

Awesome Opportunity For Young Investors -- April 21, 2019

Updates

Later, 12:15 p.m. CT: just a couple of hours after posting the note below, this note from CNBC --

• The economic expansion that began post-financial crisis is nearing the 10-year mark, matching the longest in history
• It is troubling times at the Federal Reserve, with President Trump's public bashing of Fed chairman Jerome Powell preceding a reversal in Fed policy on interest rates hikes -- and why is it "troubling" ? -- LOL
• The economy is doing well, and inflation is under control, but if the economy slows the Fed will have few tools left to fend off a recession, or could even help cause one through drastic rate hikes -- yup -- exactly what Trump has been saying for months ...
• In just over a month, the U.S. economy will complete 10 years of economic expansion, matching the longest expansion in history. 
• The last time this happened, in March 2001, the economy slid from its lofty peak and into recession. The unemployment rate in the months preceding that recession dipped to 3.9 percent, nearly identical to the current rate.
• Yup, I guess the unemployment rate is the new metric -- LOL

Original Post 

This is probably as exciting as it's ever been for investors. We're coming up on "May: sell, and go away."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

US economy humming right along. See top stories for this past week. Top national non-energy story: American economy:

• Record low unemployment -- not seen in 50 years; and, here; 
• US retail surged in March

Several months ago, "everyone" was talking about additional "rate hikes" and suggesting President Trump was out of line for calling out the "Fed" for raising rates too soon, too fast. Regular readers know how I feel about that.

About the same time "everyone" was talking about additional "rate hikes" I started suggested just the opposite. Rate hikes stopped, and now there is talk of at least one rate cut this year.  From The Wall Street Journal this past week:

Fed officials contemplate thresholds for rate cuts. A cut isn't imminent, but interviews, public remarks suggest Fed officials are talking about the conditions that might lead to such an action.

Inflation rose last year to the Fed’s 2% target after years of undershooting it. Central bank officials say the target is symmetric, meaning they expect inflation will drift mildly above and below it at different times.

Price pressures softened beginning last fall, although officials had expected inflation to keep rising amid strong hiring and a burst of fiscal stimulus fueled by tax cuts and government spending.

If inflation runs too far below 2% for a while, it would show “our setting of monetary policy is actually restrictive, and we need to make an adjustment down in the funds rate,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday,  referring to the central bank’s benchmark federal-funds rate.

Mr. Evans said his forecast was for inflation to rise over the coming year, justifying a rate increase in late 2020 and possibly again in 2021 to keep price pressures under control.

Initial Production Numbers For Select Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- April 21, 2019

Full list of wells coming off confidential list this week posted here.

For more on the CLR Peterson wells in East Fork, see this post.

For the Austin wells below, see this post.

34552, conf, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	13006	4494
1-2019	15038	4497
12-2018	18390	3322
11-2018	21836	6829
10-2018	912	539

34551, conf, EOG, Austin 112-2919H, Parshall, a nice well but not as good as one might expect;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	7065	3062
1-2019	9229	0
12-2018	6874	914
11-2018	7472	598
10-2018	370	103

34498, conf, EOG, Austin 85-1929H, Parshall, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	10332	10163
1-2019	14551	11285
12-2018	9102	10192
11-2018	15264	3783
10-2018	2115	160

34499, conf, EOG, Austin 75-1929H, Parshall, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	12479	1449
1-2019	18089	704
12-2018	14323	403
11-2018	15739	4690
10-2018	1849	670

34496, conf, EOG, Austin 85-1929H, Parshall, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	17045	4573
1-2019	22392	4422
12-2018	20916	1127
11-2018	21197	4479
10-2018	2414	860

34464, conf, CLR, Peterson 6-29H, East Fork, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	10532	11150
1-2019	23392	26889
10-2018	903	0

34784, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	19039	0
1-2019	15319	0
12-2018	20655	0
11-2018	29354	0
10-2018	1586	0

34463, conf, CLR, Peterson 5-29H1, East Fork, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	11840	12246
1-2019	25976	27674
10-2018	585	0

34462, conf, CLR, Peterson 4-29H, East Fork, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	12291	12996
1-2019	29752	32440
10-2018	761	0

34214, conf, Whiting, Periot 24-20TFH, Dollar Joe, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	12881	48677
1-2019	20516	48821
12-2018	9586	17207
11-2018	20101	12832
10-2018	2255	0

34949, conf, Kraken, Jefferson 31-30 2H, Corinth, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	20255	771
1-2019	26975	1068
12-2018	25654	2354
11-2018	25083	0
10-2018	955	0

34948, conf, Kraken Operating, Jefferson 31-30 1TFH, Corinth, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	20378	753
1-2019	23178	914
12-2018	22754	1989
11-2018	16100	0
10-2018	221	0

34785, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, Eigthmile, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	21881	0
1-2019	13602	0
12-2018	25229	0
11-2018	31993	0
10-2018	6125	0

34461, conf, CLR, Peterson 3-29H1, East Fork, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	16412	16332
1-2019	26985	28908
10-2018	626	0

27666, conf, Whiting, Periot 44-20HU, Dollar Joe, a very nice well

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	16803	50683
1-2019	23428	45047
12-2018	30399	57003
11-2018	32903	23501
10-2018	5429	0

34460, conf, CLR, Peterson 2-29HSL, East Fork, producing, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	18763	20336
1-2019	35496	38267
10-2018	755	0