Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Possibly A Record Post-Shut-In-Production Jump In The Bakken -- February 7, 2017

Updates

February 11, 2017: this one has me very, very perplexed. Note the production profiles of these three wells -- the jump in production in late 2016, in the middle Bakken well, #25961. The file record does not shed any light. At the bottom of the post, one can see where the horizontals are located. I see no evidence of any new fracking, and these wells were taken off-line for such a short period of time.

  • 25960, Three Forks: put on pump in September, 2014
  • 25961, middle Bakken: no pump according to NDIC paperwork; paperwork could be delayed
  • 25962, Three Forks: put on pump in May, 2015

 25960, Three Forks: put on pump in September, 2014
 Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201629147315161741791166631
BAKKEN11-20163045814462441622961420
BAKKEN10-201675265151381115928166
BAKKEN9-20160080000
BAKKEN8-201651681936865490
BAKKEN7-2016271202120823193118520
BAKKEN6-20163014931489719828950
BAKKEN5-2016311561154313656715810
BAKKEN4-20163075373954803492610
BAKKEN3-20161939212401
BAKKEN2-2016137841000
BAKKEN1-20162121582149116990682022


25961, middle Bakken: no pump according to NDIC paperwork; paperwork could be delayed;
[Update, January, 2018: just prior to the jump in production: a work-over rig on site, and a new pump put in; no evidence that is was re-fracked; no sundry form to suggest a re-frack and FracFocus does not show a re-frack.]
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201600140000
BAKKEN11-2016305007745514123250
BAKKEN10-2016301386213881309617176170850
BAKKEN9-2016271243912202327115651155670
BAKKEN8-201661535162684019101756135
BAKKEN7-201628587858401664618561030
BAKKEN6-201625474847461523615460810
BAKKEN5-201631536154052904883787470
BAKKEN4-201626736973804447721171350
BAKKEN3-201631772677374101737872850
BAKKEN2-20162989868969310994319101243
BAKKEN1-20163177077685231630952895106


25962, Three Forks: put on pump in May, 2015
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201621362835022085152214540
BAKKEN11-201630311830362465347833910
BAKKEN10-2016102942881315563269264
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-201610340870
BAKKEN7-201626122812581043578057040
BAKKEN6-20163024882502205654465066293
BAKKEN5-201628348634983224758675040
BAKKEN4-201630406140628999797878910
BAKKEN3-201631400239702883686967770
BAKKEN2-201629287128263259463945520
BAKKEN1-201676246297557016800
****************************************

February 8, 2017: frack data from FracFocus
  • 26419, BR: 33-053-05259, 1/23/14 - 1/25/14; 2.1 million gallons water; 82% water by mass; 16% sand by mass;
  • 17356, BR: 33-053-02902, no data at FracFocus,
  • 26007, BR, API: 33-053-05133, 1/18/14 - 1/21/14; 2.4 million gallons water; 84% water by mass; 15% sand by mass;
  • 26006, BR, API: 33-053-05132, 1/15/14 - 1/18/14; 2.3 million gallons water; 83% water by mass; 15% sand by mass;
February 8, 2017: important to note -- this is in the Charlson oil field.



Original Post
This is the last note I'm posting tonight. There may be some significant errors in this post. But I will leave it up overnight. I will proofread it in the morning. Consider it not ready for prime-time. Consider it a draft that if there are significant issues with it, it will be removed tomorrow. 

Comment regarding "the post" below.

 I think the data in "the post" below and what it might be showing is quite staggering.  (I haven't pointed out everything but the data is there.)

Take a look at the data.

For those of  you with a "basic subscription" there is even more to this story which I will post at a later date, but tonight I'm too tired. In addition, I need to reflect on this one for awhile. It's possible I made a mistake; too much data; need to confirm later.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. I am doing this for my benefit only. I am probably seeing things that don't exist. Don't quote me on any of this. Again, this is for my interest and benefit only. I post it with the rest of the blog, because I don't want the aggravation of two blogs, one private, one public. Feel free to read it but again, don't quote me on it. It's probably just "one of those things." If this is important to you, go to the source.

The Post 
Here's another well that had a bit of a production jump after it was brought back on-line after being shut-in for a few months:
  • in the autumn of 2013, this well was producing around 1,500 bbls of oil / month
  • then, knowing that by simply taking a well off-line for a "significant" period of time (for purpose of discussion, 3 - 7 months) could significantly increase production, BR apparently took this well off-line for a few months beginning in November, 2013
  • BR brought the well back on line in March, 2014, and within a month or so, production jumped to over 26,000 bbls of oil per month
  • that "26,000 bbls" was just "oil"; natural gas also showed a similar jump; produced water also jumped, but in the big scheme of things, and compared to a lot of Bakken wells, the amount of produced water was trivial
I find it amazing how much production can jump by just taking a Bakken well off-line for a few months.

It's possible the oil was commingled in a battery of tanks and there was an error in the data regarding how much oil this well produced. There are all kinds of things that might provide an alternate explanation. If commingling was an error, to the best of my knowledge natural gas produced, sold, and flared is not similarly affected but I could be wrong.

Production profile since initial production to the present (still active):


Pool		DateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20161721022092123199819560
BAKKEN11-201629361633971057495048780
BAKKEN10-2016171762202990621441262840
BAKKEN9-201623302328104345122501253
BAKKEN8-201631393138741878587014394354
BAKKEN7-201631395136081293518938711241
BAKKEN6-2016111326186739023422051263
BAKKEN5-20161083954959915781212341
BAKKEN4-2016303584359133580027559368
BAKKEN3-2016313378359040974867039370
BAKKEN2-2016273258329434264345950417
BAKKEN1-2016313558331136270626784202
BAKKEN12-20153137153645473668945462066
BAKKEN11-2015303828412942457095327307
BAKKEN10-20153142604038353780577280
BAKKEN9-20151930483122324418229951139
BAKKEN8-20152231693472271483720572725
BAKKEN7-20153044694059399688253811427
BAKKEN6-20153042294218399644711745199
BAKKEN5-2015314848478035472213066838
BAKKEN4-2015304512452443671005126514
BAKKEN3-20153146644610551304518311136
BAKKEN2-20152647494783226748007416
BAKKEN1-2015306774709968310670010595
BAKKEN12-201491371964246163201609
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20141530793543228364603609
BAKKEN9-201426910989681134986709802
BAKKEN8-2014291609315960179417778017706
BAKKEN7-20143122414227952875242065324075
BAKKEN6-201430269102645128209604969434
BAKKEN5-2014312439724866306886446741
BAKKEN4-20142520922204482441134501283
BAKKEN3-201412890587891096600527463230
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-20140000000
BAKKEN12-20131000300
BAKKEN11-2013171167140991275121023
BAKKEN10-201331153716266722201781361
BAKKEN9-201330146314095522571696487
BAKKEN8-201331154116336223682174118
BAKKEN7-20132815501620702295216659
BAKKEN6-20133015501373782360225432
BAKKEN5-201331180918505126192281260
BAKKEN4-20132011441137351299559690
BAKKEN3-201331163714434821591650432
BAKKEN2-201328153416834722302028132
BAKKEN1-201331170915545124782180221
BAKKEN12-201231168315644424092163170
BAKKEN11-201230164119504224712219178
BAKKEN10-201231170917116725652231256
BAKKEN9-201230166316087227282328325
BAKKEN8-201231170715887125792039463
BAKKEN7-201231170818517026542056521
BAKKEN6-201229172715588128782462344
BAKKEN5-201227147717268028782307504
BAKKEN4-201252026179678277302761
BAKKEN3-2012418991917140292702917
BAKKEN2-201241847171467286702857
BAKKEN1-201241747193850725745362711
BAKKEN12-201151982191273296002947
BAKKEN11-201131954208866293202924
BAKKEN10-201110195218686832783212932
BAKKEN9-20116197220769438678113056
BAKKEN8-201142117187981327603276
BAKKEN7-201124208723009731432702873
BAKKEN6-2011281950200714426821332549
BAKKEN5-201131227723658231955122684
BAKKEN4-2011302458235611238268822944
BAKKEN3-2011313008291812844324643969
BAKKEN2-20119158316452829178882029
BAKKEN1-20113637701025941732862
BAKKEN12-201024192019347425862336250
BAKKEN11-201030235020759931812429752
BAKKEN10-2010312397256112931267552372
BAKKEN9-20102924162534134339818601538
BAKKEN8-20103126342766169369703697
BAKKEN7-201031257522852873541693472
BAKKEN6-2010221286129448215702461324
BAKKEN5-20109114695240313491981151
BAKKEN4-201061404136351101610160
BAKKEN3-20102827953104104471931661553
BAKKEN2-2010282804261696550239091593
BAKKEN1-20103137234075136519028942296
BAKKEN12-200962696228510325414212120
BAKKEN11-20092834823616281520715713636
BAKKEN10-2009192782274449437896873102
BAKKEN9-2009242846295387385303853
BAKKEN8-20092237163630130511105111
BAKKEN7-20093147094674211169001690
BAKKEN6-200928424442372264388184370
BAKKEN5-20093144484407125408813122776
BAKKEN4-20093044604476734507810823996
BAKKEN3-200953044224172239214
BAKKEN2-20091737813672132470036611039
BAKKEN1-20092655515994200799963561643
BAKKEN12-2008297042660929886224298193
BAKKEN11-200830752672722071490849080

 This is what the production profile looked like during those twelve months:

BAKKEN10-20141530793543228364603609
BAKKEN9-201426910989681134986709802
BAKKEN8-2014291609315960179417778017706
BAKKEN7-20143122414227952875242065324075
BAKKEN6-201430269102645128209604969434
BAKKEN5-2014312439724866306886446741
BAKKEN4-20142520922204482441134501283
BAKKEN3-201412890587891096600527463230
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-20140000000
BAKKEN12-20131000300
BAKKEN11-2013171167140991275121023
BAKKEN10-201331153716266722201781361
BAKKEN9-201330146314095522571696487
BAKKEN8-201331154116336223682174118
BAKKEN7-20132815501620702295216659
BAKKEN6-20133015501373782360225432
BAKKEN5-201331180918505126192281260
BAKKEN4-20132011441137351299559690

Another interesting thing about this well: look at the initial production. The best this well did after a "deliberate frack" was about 7,526 bbls of oil. By simply shutting this well in for a few months in late 2013, and bringing it back on-line, production jumped more than 3-fold, for several months:
BAKKEN6-200928424442372264388184370
BAKKEN5-20093144484407125408813122776
BAKKEN4-20093044604476734507810823996
BAKKEN3-200953044224172239214
BAKKEN2-20091737813672132470036611039
BAKKEN1-20092655515994200799963561643
BAKKEN12-2008297042660929886224298193
BAKKEN11-200830752672722071490849080

Initial production was not particularly remarkable. This was an open-hole/perforated frack in October/November, 2008. It was tested November 12, 2008. Frack: 647,200 lbs of white sand; 9,103 bbls of water gel; sliding sleeves. 

Based on the file report, this was the only frack. I did not see any reports of any work-over rig action. FracFocus did not have any frack data. 

Back-of-the-envelope:
  • this jump in production was back in early 2014
  • let's say oil at the well head was $75/bbl
  • let's say a mineral owner had a 3/8th interest
  • 1,500 bbls/month = $42,000 (one month)
  • 26,000 bbls/month = $731,250 (one month)
The well:
  • 17356, 356, BR, Archer 14-25H, Charlson, t11/12/08; cum 366K 12/16
Graphic of the area:


************************************
Timing of Fracks



*******************************************

Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

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