Week 3: January 15, 2024 -- January 21, 2024

Locator: 46602TOPSTORIES.

Top, top story: 

• the US stock market surges
  
• Americans' confidence in US economy takes surprising "positive" turn
  

Top story: 

• US Navy hitting back at Yemeni Houthis
  
• regional "wars" everywhere: Gaza, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Ukraine
• all are in somewhat of a "steady state" situation
• with Biden, Americans don't know how good they have it, and Trump is getting all the headlines
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Gaza: Israel shows no sign of letting up
• Ukraine: not looking good for the home team; GOP wants to stop funding
  

Top international energy story:

• OPEC+ no longer in control
• US producing at record level

Top national non-energy story:

• US equity markets: Dow, S&P 500 hit all-time highs
• tech sector: all-time highs
  
• US economy surprisingly strong; consumer surprisingly resilient
• EV manufacturers had a very, very bad week
• Ford to cut back on on EV Ford 150-Lightning
  

Top national energy story:

• ERCOT holds up surprisingly well;
  
• significant cut in US shale production due to extreme cold: seems to have minimal impact on pricing;

Focus on fracking: link here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• winter storm Gerri is going to cut Bakken production by as much as half!

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Bakken economy:

Commentary: 

Rambling -- The Market -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46601INV.

For the record: I first mentioned "Nvidia" on the blog on July 10, 2017. Link here.

Nvidia was $149.80; AMD was $13.60; and, INTC was $33.23. Today:

• NVDA: $594.91
• AMD: $174.23, and, acquired XLNX in the meantime;
• INTC: $48.15

For the archives: 

This blows me away. I wasn't paying attention today. Just following a couple of stories -- mostly tech sector stories -- and now, late this evening, wrapping up some loose ends, I saw the "close."

Link here. 

Holy mackerel. 

DJIA: up almost 400 points. That means it was higher -- at least a bit -- before the close. That's the way it always works.

And look at the NASDAQ: up 255 points at the close. Same thing. It must have been a bit higher during the day.

Wow. 

Today's market move was not trivial.

Count Me As One Of Those Upbeat Optimists -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46600ECON.

For the archives: 

Link here.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.41.

Active rigs: 38.

Two new permits, #40461 - #40462, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for a Swenson well and a Finholt well, NWNE 15-145-94; 
• to be sited 401 FNL with the Swenson 1890 FEL and the Finholt 1850 FEL;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37325, 1,084, SOGC, Porcupine 6-19H, Dunn County;

Texas Economy Continues To Surge -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46599TEXAS.

The GDP growth is significant, but what caught my attention -- that growth in population in San Antonio / Austin.

Austin: university town, tech capital; Texas capital. 

But look at that San Antonio growth. San Antonio is unconstrained geographically (we can talk about that later if questions) but more importantly: San Antonio is the first city farther north than the border that  Mexicans reach when visiting / moving to Texas. San Antonio is the real origin of I-35 to Austin and then to Dallas / Ft Worth, and from there, all points north, east, and west. For Mexicans, San Antonio is the US destination for Christmas shopping that begins weeks earlier.

Bakken Play Production -- January, 2024, Data

Locator: 46598B.

EIA dashboards:

• Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf.
• Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf,
• Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf.

Monthly increase in production from one average rig:

• oil:
• Bakken: 9
  
• Permian: 13
  
• Eagle Ford: 5
  

• natural gas:
• Bakken: 13
  
• Permian: 11
  
• Eagle Ford: 6
  

*******************************
The Charts

The Bakken

The Eagle Ford:

The Permian: 

Director's Cut -- December, 2023, Data

Locator: 46597CUT.

Link here. 

Respiratory Illnesses -- Weekly Update -- January 19, 2024

 Locator: 46596FLU. 

Updates

January 22, 2024: weatherbug, link here. Wow, what an incredibly awful article, and this was the link that The Drudge Report posted. TDR simply went with the headline, and never critically read the artile. Compare the linked weatherbug article with the incredibly professionally, critically reviewed post below.

Original Post

Link here.

Flu vaccines must really be working this year. I'm looking at you, RFK, Jr.

Corona -- link here:

Again, for RFK, Jr., the vaccines must really be working. As folks know, the NYT is reporting American sewage is teaming with evidence of Covid virus in the American population ... and yet ... the clinical illness data doesn't reflect that. And, the new variant has been around for several months now.

Incredible Day For US Equities -- January 19, 2024

 Locator: 46595INV.

Tax bill is going to be "huge" for economy. More later.  Things are happening very, very fast. Exciting to say the least.

Dow, S&P 500 close at record high.

Tech sector sets record. 

CNBC has not mentioned INTC but mentioned all the rest. CNBC chief / senior analyst mentioned BRK in passing and laughed.

RIVN down today. Most EVs were down today, some significantly. TSLA flat. LCID was up 2% but so far down hardly matters.

Nvidia up $25 today.

AMD up $12. 

Broadcom (AVGO) up $67 today.

Big Story Over At CNBC Today -- Chicken -- Inflation? What Inflation? January 19, 2024

Locator: 46594CHICKEN.

Those restaurants concentrating on chicken this year (2024) are going to do very, very well.

In the past year, I added MCD to my "investment bucket list." 

Eggs:

Elsewhere: see January 9, 2024, posting, also.

 

Geo-Politics -- The Gap Between US And Europe Will Only Widen -- And The Red Sea Is Only A Small Piece Of This -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46593GAP.

Updates

January 20, 2024: as bad as the Red Sea conflict is for Europe, it may be even worse for Germany. See this post.

Original Post 

Link here. 

Apparently A Glitch At The NDIC -- The January, 2024, Director's Cut Still Not Posted -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46592NDIC.

Was supposed to be posted at 11:00 a.m. CT.

It's now 12:27 p.m. CT.

Production data in spreadsheet format has been released but not the Director's Cut unless I have a problem with my browser.

S&P 500 On Track For A Record Close -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46591S&P.

Breaking: S&P 500 just hit a record intraday high.

Link here.

The importance of reading 10-Ks:

This Blows Me Away -- The "Fuel" Mix At ERCOT -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46590ERCOT.

Link here.

 

MIX:

• wind & solar: 54%
• natural gas: 27%
• coal: 9%
• nuclear: 9%
• no imports from other states
  

Meanwhile, ISONE: 

• coal exceeds wind;
• huge contribution from "outside" grids

Mix:

• natural gas: 54%
• imports from "other" grids: 11%
• hydro: 6%
• coal: 3%
• wind: 36% of 6% = 2%

Apple Vision Pro Went On Sale Today -- Already On Backorder -- Apple Has Sold Out Current Supply Of Vision Pro -- AAPL Back Above 190 -- Januuary 19, 2024

Breaking: S&P above its highest closing ever. Currently trading above 4,800.

Locator: 46589AAPL.

Link here.

Ticker:

Back To The Bakken -- January 19, 2024

Locator: 46588B.

Director’s Cut to be released at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Preview: latest Bakken production here.

 

WTI: $73.59. Can't get traction.

Sunday, January 21, 2024: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 41 for the year
39280, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-2MBHX,
39279, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-1MBHX,
39278, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-20MBHX,
39277, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-5MBHX,
30951, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 4B,
30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH,

Saturday, January 20, 2024: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 35 for the year
39946, conf,  Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 12-36H INJ,
30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH,

Friday, January 19, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: clean hydrogen rules focus on 'three pillars,' strict approach to hourly matching. 

The long-delayed rules around the federal government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as 45V, have been the subject of heated debate (and lobbying) since passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2022. While some industry groups argued for looser guidelines around the PTC that would allow the low-carbon hydrogen industry to grow quickly, others called for a stricter set of rules from the start, arguing that an approach that was too lax would lead to an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how those newly published rules rely on the so-called “three pillars” of clean hydrogen, how they prioritize production of green hydrogen at the expense of its blue and pink varieties, and explain the rules around temporal matching and why it might be hard to hit the administration’s 2028 target date for implementation. 

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- SLB Raises Quarterly Dividend By 10 Percent -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46587DIV.

Ford: biggest investing story today. Throwing in the towel.

Link here.

SLB. Link here. SLB raises dividend. From the blog January 10, 2024:

• dividends: 
• a fair number of publicly traded energy companies are ready to announce an increase in their next quarterly dividend based on their history of dividend announcements
• EPD was the first (though its dividend tends to change every quarter)
• big ones to watch: CVX; COP

Personal investing:

• bought today: MRVL, ORCL
• sold today: BA, TSLA
• bucket list: added MRVL, removed CVX (had been a short term special situation)

Bucket list for new money:

 

Director’s Cut to be released at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Preview: latest Bakken production here.