Bakken Crude Oil Assay -- January, 2018 -- Statoil

From Border States Supply Chain Solutions:

Statoil published a new detailed assay for the US shale crude
Bakken, showing it slightly heavier and more sour than previously reported.

The assay, based on a sample taken December 8, 2017, shows Bakken to be 42.9
API and 0.17% sulfur.

The crude had a total acid number of 0.04 mgKOH/g, nickel at 1.4 ppm and vanadium at 3.8 ppm. (The full assay is available at
https://www.statoil.com/en/what-we-do/crude-oil-and-condensate-assays.html.)

Statoil last published an assay for Bakken in November, 2016. That assay
showed the crude to be 43.3 API and 0.07% sulfur, with lower TAN and metals
content.

With the Dakota Access Pipeline and ETCOP pipelines carrying Bakken to
the US Gulf Coast, the grade increasingly competes with other light sweet
grades in the region, such as West Texas Intermediate.

Google search: When the total sulfur level in the oil is more than 0.5% the oil is called "sour".

From an old (1994) post:

WTI price is used as a benchmark for pricing all other U.S. crude oils. The 410 API, 0.34 wt % sulfur crude is gathered in West Texas and moved to Cushing, OK, for distribution. That assay showed WTI API gravity to be 40.8.

 

Reminder: NDGS Has An Update On Three Forks, Second Bench -- February 11, 2018

A reader recently sent a short comment regarding the Three Forks, second bench. Just a reminder: Geo News has an update of the second bench in the January, 2018, issue. See this link.

You can download the semi-annual (January, July) newsletter at this link.

Also this reminder: Vern Whitten's most recent Bakken portfolio is at this link; it is now among the top ten visited posts at the present time.

I Wonder Why, Dion and the Belmonts

Global Warming Hits The Bakken Tonight -- Be Safe -- February 11, 2018

Iceland Energy Demand Is Soaring -- Bitcoin -- February 11, 2018

This was posted on the blog just a few weeks ago:

One bitcoin transaction now uses as much energy as your house in a week -- Motherboard, November 1, 2017. Bitbcoin's surge in price has sent its electricity consumption soaring.

Bitcoin mining guzzles energy -- and its carbon footprint just keeps growing -- Wired, December 6, 2017. Bitcoin is slowing the effort to achieve a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. What’s more, this is just the beginning. Given its rapidly growing climate footprint, bitcoin is a malignant development, and it’s getting worse.

That's a legitimate story; a legitimate concern. Look at this, over at the Associated Press:

New gold rush: Energy demands soar in Iceland for bitcoins.

Iceland is expected to use more energy "mining" bitcoins and other virtual currencies this year than it uses to power its homes.

With massive amounts of electricity needed to run the computers that create bitcoins, large virtual currency companies have established a base in the North Atlantic island nation blessed with an abundance of renewable energy.

The energy demand has developed because of the soaring cost of producing and collecting virtual currencies. Computers are used to make the complex calculations that verify a running ledger of all the transactions in virtual currencies around the world.

In return, the miners claim a fraction of a coin not yet in circulation. In the case of bitcoin, a total of 21 million can be mined, leaving about 4.2 million left to create. As more bitcoin enter circulation, more powerful computers are needed to keep up with the calculations — and that means more energy.

The serene coastal town of Keflavik on Iceland's desolate southern peninsula has over the past months boomed as an international hub for mining bitcoins and other virtual currencies.

With Ledecky, Stanford Has A 16 - 0 Run In Dual Meets -- February 11, 2018

Katie Ledecky's Stanford records a "perfect season," finishing 8 - 0, beating "Cal" 171 - 90.

Katie Ledecky swam a 1000 - 200 free double to begin the day and won both races.

After a bit of a rest, Katie jumped back in for her final race of the day, the 500-year freestyle, again, winning.

Since Katie has attended Stanford, the team is 16 - 0 in dual meets.

Pac-12 Championship meet will take place February 21 - 24.

****************************

Sunset Sam Brought Me Here

I think I will travel to Rio: what a great song. 


For the archives, in "Cruisin'/"Sunset Sam":

• Avery Summers and Kim Silvers - Mike Nesmith's "Cruisin' [Lucy and Ramona and Sunset Sam]"

Wow, Paddy Seems To Pop Up Everywhere -- The Elon Musk Of The Arab Solar Industry -- February 11, 2018

So, the trifecta, I suppose -- Algore, Musk Melon, and now Paddy.

Paddy just keeps popping up everywhere. See this post which should take you to other posts, or simply search "Paddy" on the blog.

Now, on to Morocco.

From lifegate, some data points:

• Paddy Padmanathan of Saudi-owned ACWA Power is running this solar energy project
• will supply energy to one million people/20 hours/day (1 million / 35 million = 3% of the population)
• $9 billion
• 1 million beneficiaries over 15 years = $600/year
• average annual consumption, Morocco, one of the poorest countries in the world: about $1,000/year;
• size: 35 soccer fields; will cover a surface area of Morocco's' capital, Rabat; single-use industry
• first phase: Noor 1 should be on line
• Noor 2 and 3 plants: were expected to go live in 2017
• 580 MW of electricity
• cost: a cool $9 billion 
• $9 billion / 580 MW = $16 million / MW -- this is so far out of line with US project costs, one wonders if there is an error somewhere (my math?)
• will reduce 17.5 million tonnes of CO2 over 25 years (0.75 million tonnes of CO2/year)

***********************

So, What's A Million Metric Tonnes Of CO2

From aashe.com:

How much is 4.6 million metric tons of CO2? According to the EPA, that’s the same as the annual energy use of 422,542 homes. It’s the same as the annual ghg emissions of 850,501 passenger vehicles. 

Homes:

• so, 1 million metric tonnes of CO2, I assume is equal to about what 100,000 homes generate, I suppose. 
• and, 0.75 million tonnes of CO2, about 70,00 homes?  
• population of Morocco, about 35 million. Eight people per home = 4.4 million homes
• 100,000  / 4.4 million homes = about 2%

Vehicles:

• 4.6 million tonnes for 850,501 vehicles  or about 185,000 vehicles / 1 million tonnes
• from google: A typical passenger vehicle emits about 4.7 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. This assumes the average gasoline vehicle on the road today has a fuel economy of about 21.6 miles per gallon and drives around 11,400 miles per year
• how many cars in Morocco: about 3 million, I suppose
• 185,000 / 3 million = about 6%

Disclaimer: this is for my own benefit to try to get an idea of how much is being spent in Morocco to save the earth from global warming. I often make simple arithmetic errors. In addition, the data used is often old data; and, many, many assumptions are made. But at least I'm getting some idea of all these numbers. If this information is important to you, go to the source and do your own calculations. Certainly don't rely on mine. I'm not even sure if we're all using the same "tons" -- metric vs non-metric.

Other data points:

• China: 7.55 metric tons/capita/year
• Morocco: 1.73 metric tons/capita/year

I could be wrong, but it appears Paddy has quite a "thing" going.

Random Look At Three CLR Wells Coming Off Confidential List Later This Week -- February 11, 2018

For newbies: look at this -- because these wells are on an established pad and the infrastructure had been put in some time ago, it appears there was little flaring from the very beginning. For #30253, November, 2017: 47,724/6 = 8,000 boe + 56K oil = 64K boe in one month. Not the best well in the Bakken, but not bad.

For more on the CLR Monroe wells, see this link. 

These two wells will be tracked/updated elsewhere; this page will not be updated, but look at
these great "Bakken_2.0" wells for CLR that will be coming off confidential list later this week:

• 30253, conf, CLR, Monroe 6-2H, Banks, a huge well; first two full months, 50K+; 150K in first three months; from a November 4, 2016, sundry form -- "CLR .... requests a waiver to plug and reclaim an abandoned well ... the well will be completed once commodity prices improve ..." Spud August 15, 2015; reached KOP on August 18, 2015; KOP curve drilled in 36 hours; wellbore landed 18' into the middle Bakken; the rig was then skid over to the Monroe 7-2H; background gas averaged 600 units; a high formation gas of 1106 units was observed when traversing the upper Bakken shale; the 13,537' long lateral began drilling on October 17, 2015; reached TD on October 23, 2015:
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2017	40292	60231
11-2017	56189	47724
10-2017	50414	43498
8-2017	398	0

30251, conf, CLR, Monroe 7-2H, Banks, a huge well; two of first three months, close to 50K+/month; about 130K first three months;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2017	48503	69080
11-2017	49279	55444
10-2017	30663	31094
8-2017	598	0

30577, conf, CLR, Wiley 7-25H, Pershing: from the geologist's report -- this is a single lateral horizontal well on an eight-well Eco-pad ... target formation was the middle Bakken...drilling began on February 11, 2015, but paused from February 16 to March 18, 2015, to drill other wells on the pad ... TD was reached on March 25, 2015 (about 12 days of drilling). Casing was set approximately 11' into the middle Bakken. The planned target was a 22' window with emphasis put on a hot marker approximately 9' into the target zone ... small areas of unexpected dip changes not previously seen in the other three wells on this pad. There appears to be some structural abnormalities through this range but without further exploration it is hard to determine the extent and/or cause of this. The lateral showed low gas readings. This well had poor to moderate gas and no oil shows throughout the lateral. Drilling was maintained in target zone very close to the hot marker and should show good results from fracking.

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2017	21299	50887
11-2017	27121	63707
10-2017	35476	76388
9-2017	35823	64750
8-2017	33361	62043

********************************** 

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 11, 2018

Friday, February 16, 2018:33004, SI/NC, Petroshale, Petroshale US 4H, Antelope, no production data,

Thursday, February 15, 2018:
None.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018:
33142, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8C-6-5H, Charlson, no production data,
33005, SI/NC, Petroshale, Petroshale US 3H, Antelope, no production data,
30253, 3,225, CLR, Monroe 6-2H, Banks, a huge well; first two full months, 50K+; 150K in first three months; 78 stages; 11 million lbs; large; TD = 24,847 feet; t10/17; cum 148K 12/17;
30251, 2,313, CLR, Monroe 7-2H, Banks, a huge well; two of first three months, close to 50K+/month; about 130K first three months; 78 stages; 16.6 million lbs; large; TD = 24,956 feet; t10/17; cum 129K 12/17;

Tuesday, February 13, 2018:
32556, 1,022, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 43-23 8T, North Tobacco Garden; 50 stages; 10 million lbs, large/ceramic; t9/17; cum 153K 12/17;
31857, 655, Whiting, McNamara 41-26-2XH, Sanish; 45 stages; 10.4 million lbs, large/medium/small; t10/17; cum 89K 12/17;
31117, 64, Ballard, Nelson 33-19, Chatfield, Madison pool; a typical Chatfield well; t11/17; cum 3K 12/17;
31082, 2,661, Bruin, Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-7H, McGregory Buttes; a huge well; good for Bruin; 51 stages, 10.2 million lbs; t8/17; cum 163K 12/17;

Monday, February 12, 2018:
33805, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 44X-8DXA, Siverston, no production data,
31084, 1,733, Bruin, Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-8, McGregory Buttes, a very nice well; 100K in first five months, 50 stages; 11.8 million lbs; t8/17; cum 105K 12/17; natural gas: 104,468 MCF;


Sunday, February 11, 2018:
33804, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 44X-8H, Siverston, no production data,
33498, 811, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-1MBH, East Tioga; a nice well; 60K first five months, 27 stages; 6.5 million lbs (large/medium); t8/17; cum 70K 12/17;

Saturday, February 10, 2018:
32555, 903, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 43-23 8T, North Tobacco Garden, a nice well; 90K first five months; Three Forks B1; 21 stages; 1.5 million lbs (large/small/ceramic); geologist's reported huge gas units; t9/17; cum 86K 12/17; natural gas: 133,039 MCF (22,173 boe)
30577, conf, CLR, Wiley 7-25H, Pershing; a huge well; 150K first five months; t8/17; cum 153K 12/17; natural gas, 328,567 MCF (55K boe)

Why Oil-Rich Gulf Arab Countries Are Turning To Renewables -- Bloomberg -- February 11, 2018: Bottom Line -- GE Needs To Move All Of Its Eggs Into The Mideast

Link here.

The other day I posted an update on Saudi Arabia's solar energy plans. For the past few days, it has made the top ten most popular posts (linked at the sidebar at the right) and today is the #1 most popular post at the blog.

Today, Bloomberg (same link as above) has a story on the same subject. Not much new, but corroborates what was posted earlier. Some data points from the linked article:

• solar energy will be used to run power plants instead of oil and natural gas
• Saudi will eventually run out of oil; it essentially has no natural gas
• electricity use in Gulf Arab nations has surged by 6% / year since 2000
• energy use driven by populations; energy-intensive industries, particularly desalination plants
• 20 gigawatts to require $30 billion of investment (look at EIA figures for US solar energy back in 2016)
• Saudi Arabia, goal: by 2020, 3.45 GW; by 2030, 9.5 GW, of wind/solar; about 10% of its generating capacity
• Saudi Arabia, estimated $30 billion to $50 billion over next six years for 3.45 GW -- if I'm reading the article correctly ($50 billion / 3.45 GW = $14 million / GW -- that number is so far outside the ballpark something sounds amiss -- but the math is correct; even if it's only $30 billion for 10 GW, that works out to $3 million / MW)
• UAE: $163 billion to diversity its supply
• then this:  if the kingdom doesn’t curb demand or invest in alternative energy sources, local needs could absorb most of its hydrocarbon production within 10 to 20 years

 ************************************

US Costs

In the US, back in 2016, the EIA estimated costs for new electricity-producing plants:

• for natural gas: 7,411 MW installed in 2013 at an average cost of about $1,000/MW
• for wind: 859 MW installed at an average cost of about $2,000/MW (or double that of natural gas)
• for solar: 2,634 MW installed at an average cost of almost $4,000/MW (about about 4x that of natural gas)
• 1000 MW = 1 GW
• Arab investment: $30 billion / 20,000 MW  = $1.5 million / MW -- less than half what it was in the US back in 2016, but one must think that labor costs in Saudi Arabia must be half what they are in the US -- just a guess

From the article, for the archives:

Saudi Arabia: The world’s biggest oil exporter aims to build about 3.45 gigawatts of solar and wind plants by 2020. It wants to be able to produce 9.5 gigawatts, or some 10 percent of its generating capacity, from renewables by 2023.

The energy ministry targets an estimated $30 billion to $50 billion in renewables investment over the next six years.

United Arab Emirates: The U.A.E. plans for renewables to make up 44 percent of its energy mix by 2050, with gas, coal and nuclear contributing the rest. It’s earmarking 600 billion dirhams ($163 billion) in spending to diversify its supply. In March, the emirate of Dubai completed the second phase of what it expects will be the world’s largest solar park by 2030.

Kuwait: The Ministry of Electricity and Water foresees a tripling of domestic energy demand by 2030 and targets producing 15 percent of its electricity from solar and wind power by then.

Qatar: The biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas aims to get 1.8 gigawatts, or 16 percent, of its power generation from solar by 2020, rising to 10 gigawatts by 2030, BNEF reported in May. It currently has no utility-scale solar projects.

Bahrain: The smallest of the GCC countries needs to increase its generating capacity by 6 percent a year to keep pace with demand, according to the multilateral Arab Petroleum Investments Corp.

Bahrain aims for renewables to contribute 5 percent of its electricity by 2020, IRENA says.

Oman: Oman has several solar projects underway, including a program encouraging the use of rooftop solar panels. California-based GlassPoint Solar Inc. is building a 1-gigawatt solar-thermal facility to turn water into steam for injection into oil fields to enhance the recovery of crude.

And then this:

Saudi Arabia has received the world’s cheapest offer for supply of solar power. Electricite de France SA and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar made a joint bid to provide electricity from a 300-megawatt photovoltaic plant for as little as 1.79 cents a kilowatt hour, the Saudi energy ministry said in October.

If awarded, that would beat the previous record low of 2.42 cents a kilowatt-hour set in Abu Dhabi in March. The Abu Dhabi offer had in turn beaten Dubai’s record from May 2016 for solar power at 2.99 cents a kilowatt-hour.

These rates may not capture the full cost of supplies in the peak summer season, but they do reflect improvements in technology that are leading to better cost savings globally. Rivalries among Arab Gulf monarchies to secure the cheapest deals for solar power may also put pressure on providers to low-ball bids.

 But repeating, a data point that simply blows me away:

 If the kingdom doesn’t curb demand or invest in alternative energy sources, local needs could absorb most of its hydrocarbon production within 10 to 20 years.

Ten years is not all that long from now. As Yogi Berra would say, "That's only about ten years from now."