Fourteen DUCs Reported As Completed -- Not Much Production; Hess With Permits For Another 8-Well Pad -- May 15, 2018

Before we get started, this note: XTO to close HQ in Ft Worth; move to Houston.

Now, back to the daily activity report.
 
Active rigs:

$71.02→	5/15/2018	05/15/2017	05/15/2016	05/15/2015	05/15/2014
Active Rigs	59	51	27	83	191

Eight new permits:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Truax (Williams)
• Comments: Hess has permits for an 8-well Gene/JCB pad in SESE 8-154-98

One permit renewed: Enduro Operating, a permit in Bottineau County

Two permits canceled: Bruin Operating canceled two Fort Berthold permits in Dunn County

Fourteen producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 29710, A, CLR,Thorvald 3-6H, Rattlesnake Point, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 29711, A, CLR, Cuskelly 4-7H1, Rattlesnake Point, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 29842, IA, CLR, Hayes 4-6H, Crazy Man Creek, 4 sections, A, producing small amount; now off-line;
• 31425, SI/IA, CLR, Bailey 12-24H, Crazy Man Creek, 4 sections, A, producing small amount; now off-line;
• 33113, A, CLR Bailey 11-24H2, Pershing, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 33114, A, CLR, Bailey 11-24H2, Pershing, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 33115, A, CLR, Bailey 10-24H, Pershing, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 33116, A, CLR, Bailey 9024H2, Pershing, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 33117, A, CLR, Bailey 8-24H, Pershing, 4 sections, A, producing small amount;
• 33465, SI/A, CLR, Omlid 2-19H, Elidah, now off-line;
• 33540, 62 (no typo), BR, Outlaw Wagon 14-23MBH-ULW-A, Sand Creek, 4 sections; t4/18; cum --
• 33542, 340, BR, Outlaw Gap 14-23MBH-A, Sand Creek; t4/18; cum --
• 33543, 243, BR, Outlaw Gap 24-23TFH-A, Sand Creek; t4/18; cum --
• 33591, 441, BR, Anderson Ranch 2C TFH, Camel Butte, t4/18; cum --

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+7 -- May 15 2018

Korean summit off? Kim Jong-Un cancels summit. Unhappy with ungoing US-SOKO military exercises. The critics were correct: even if a summit is held, even if a piece of paper is signed, it won't be "worth the paper it's written on" when signed by a guy like Kim Jong-Un. Trump needs to cancel this summit sooner than later.

API, weekly US crude oil inventories: a build of 4.854 million bbls. Huge. After the data release, WTI: flat. down 2 cents. From oilprice.com --

The American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise build of 4.854 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending May 11, compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a smaller draw in crude oil inventories of 763,000 barrels.

Something suggests to me that "shale" has not yet seen its best days, although I'm not sure how "best days" is defined. But considering the smartest guys in the world expected US crude oil inventories to drop about a million bbls but instead rose by almost 5 million bbls seems quite remarkable.

Gasoline? Same link: a bigger draw than expected. The API reported a draw in gasoline inventories for week ending May 11 in the amount of 3.369 million barrels—a bigger draw than the 1.421-million-barrel draw that analysts had expected. So, a gasoline withdrawal of let's say 4 million bbls vs 1 million bbls anticipated.

Market close:

• API: US crude oil inventories -- see above.
• TSLA: down $8 during the day; continues to fall slightly -- very slightly -- in after-market trading
• COP: closed slightly lower, but at $70.59, hit a 52-week high
• RDS-B: closed slightly lower, but at $75.59, hit a 52-week high
• CVX: slightly lower today, but still offering a great dividend
• UNP: essentially flat
• BTC-USD: down 1.7%
• ETH-USD: down 1.96%

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Job Watch

Original CNBC link is here. Job openings hit a fresh record in March, further defying opinion that the labor market is tightening and near full.

• Job openings in March rose 472,000 from February and hit a fresh record, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
• Openings jumped in professional and business services, construction and transportation, warehousing and utilities.

Re-tweeted by the president here, May 15, 2018--

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As One Reader Said, "Oops"

I heard part of the story yesterday but did not know "who" lost the weapons. From the Omaha World-Herald: 

The Air Force is offering $5,000 for leads on the whereabouts of a box of explosive grenade rounds that airmen accidentally dropped on a road in North Dakota while traveling between two intercontinental ballistic missile silos — the facilities scattered across the Great Plains that stand ready to launch nuclear warheads at a moment's notice.

Airmen from the 91st Missile Wing Security Forces team, Minot AFB, ND, were traveling on gravel roads May 1 on an American Indian reservation in North Dakota when the back hatch of their vehicle opened and a container filled with the explosive ammunition fell out.

On May 11, the Air Force sent more than 100 airmen to walk the entire 6-mile route where the grenades were probably lost. But the box of explosives wasn't found.

He said the box had been lost near Parshall, on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation.

The sheriff said his office wasn't notified until three days after the airmen lost the explosives.

Director's Cut -- March, 2018 Data -- Is Posted -- North Dakota Posts Another Natural Gas Production Record

Link here.

Disclaimer: done quickly. There may be typographical and/or factual errors.

The number is: 1,162,071bopd -- down from 1,175,316 in February, 2018.

However, natural gas production increased slightly, setting a new all-time record:

• March: 2,116,294 MCF/day (353K boepd)
• February: 2,106,121 MCF/day (351K boepd)

Completions:

• Well completions in March fell to 65 (preliminary) due to weather.
• February completions: 77.
• January completions: 65.

DUCs + inactive wells: 2,555

• that's a lot of DUCs (915) and inactive wells 
• waiting on completion: 916, up 15 from the end of February to the end of March
• inactive well count: 1,653, down 1 from the end of February to the end of March

Flaring:

• statewide, 88% capture (same as last month)
• statewide, Bakken: 89% capture (same as last month)
• FBIR Bakken: 87% capture (worse than last month)
• ND goal: 88% capture; increasing to 91% beginning November 1, 2020

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+7 -- May 15, 2018

Link here.

TSLA is now down about $10. Per share.We're not talking about the car itself.

Venezuela: I said two weeks ago that last week might be the tipping point for Venezuela. The country stumbled through another week. Now this, this week.  A lot of tankers across the Caribbean could be "left holding the bag." CNBC talking head feels strongly that Venezuela will become a "narco-nation." The nation is now running narcotics, and care very little for oil.

NBA "semi-finals" or conference championships:

• game one, Boston Celtics smash LeBron's team: 108 - 83; series at 1 - 0; game two this evening
• game one, Warriors beat the Rockets (interesting, huh?), 119 - 106; series at 1 - 0; game two tomorrow evening
• this is a tough one; maybe right now, the Celtics are my favorite; not particularly "close" to any NBA team this year

Stanley Cup, "semi-finals" or conference championships:

• Washington leads Lightning, 2 - 0, total goals, 10 vs 4; game three tonight
• Las Vegas - Winnipeg Jets series tied at 1 - 1; total goals, 5 vs 5; game three tomorrow
• the Jets are my personal favorite only because extended family member rooting for the Jets

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+7 -- May 15, 2018

Elon Musk reorganizing. I think TSLA dropped $9 yesterday. Right now, TSLA is down another $9 and trading at $283. My understanding is that Tesla has run out of the "usual" or "standard" methods of raising cash. I don't know. I have no idea. I thought I would just post that.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Win a free trip to Calgary, Alberta. The Vancouver Board of Trade (British Columbia, Canada, the province west of Alberta, and known as the province that hates Alberta) is flying "supporters" of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline project for an all-expense paid trip to Calgary to show the movers and shakers in the Alberta oil sector that some folks in British Columbia actually support the pipeline. When a reader sent me that link, I replied:

• hold out for another week, and supporters may get an all-expense paid trip to Hawaii
• hold out until May 30th, and supporters may get an all-expense paid trip to the destination of their choice

Mainstream media dying. This is tracked elsewhere. Warren Buffett, just a few days ago, said print media -- i.e., newspapers -- is dead. The Salt Lake Tribune this week is reporting that the Tribune is laying off one-third of its newsroom, cuts back print offerings, citing plunging revenues. There was another newspaper reporting almost the same thing this week. Can't remember if I posted that; can't remember the newspaper. From the linked article:

In a radical restructuring of Utah’s largest newspaper, owner Paul Huntsman proceeded Monday with cutting 34 Salt Lake Tribune employees from a newsroom staff of 90, along with the elimination of key print sections and some well-known writers who were read for generations.

After sounding the alarm last Tuesday, Huntsman — whose wealthy father, philanthropist and Tribune champion Jon Huntsman Sr., died Feb. 2 — enacted a drastic reduction in costs at The Tribune in light of what he said were unexpectedly sharp declines in print circulation and advertising revenues since he bought the Salt Lake City-based publication in 2016.

Along with cutting one in every three newsroom employees, The Tribune will eliminate its high-profile Utah news section Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, having already gone dark with its Monday version of the local news page. Remaining pages devoted to news, features, entertainment, business, sports and puzzles will all contract slightly.

Too short. This is a good example of a song that is about a minute too short. Bob Dylan wold change this to a 12-minute long-play version. Play with a good woofer, or subwoofer:

Far From Any Road, The Handsome Family

"Shale's Best Days Are Behind Us" -- Art Berman -- May 15, 2018

I do not know what Art Berman means when he says, "shale's best days are behind us."

Remember, the shale revolution -- and Berman says there was no revolution -- began in 2007.

This year, that revolution -- or whatever you want to call it -- barely a decade old, will result in US shale output rising to a record 7.18 million bbls. The EIA says that will happen in June, next month, 2018.

I don't know if Art Berman visited Williston in 2010, and I don't know if he has been in the Permian this year. I assume he has. From what I saw and what I'm reading, the activity in the Permian is now exceeding what we saw during the Bakken boom. The folks at The Atlantic Monthly need to visit the Permian. Assuming they can find a place to stay for a few days.

From the linked article:

U.S. shale production is expected to rise by about 145,000 barrels per day to a record 7.18 million bpd in June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Monday.
A majority of the increase is expected to come from the Permian basin, the biggest U.S. oil patch, where output is expected to climb 78,000 bpd to a fresh record of 3.28 million bpd.

Soaring Permian crude production has already outpaced pipeline takeaway capacity, depressing prices in the region and leaving traders scrambling for alternatives to get crude to market.

Bakken output is expected to rise 20,000 bpd to 1.24 million bpd, the highest since June 2015, while Eagle Ford production is set to rise 33,000 bpd to 1.39 million bpd, the highest since February 2016. [And this is with only 60 active rigs -- Baker Hughes says 57 -- compared to 83 rigs in 2015.]

Production in the United States has surged thanks to the shale boom, helping send U.S. crude futures' discount to international benchmark Brent crude futures to the widest in six months.

Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas production was projected to increase to a record 68.1 billion cubic feet per day in June. That would be up almost 1.1 bcfd over the May forecast and would be the fifth monthly increase in a row.

A year ago in June output was just 56.4 bcfd.

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COP To Divest Assets In the North Sea

Things are moving so quickly and there is so much going on, it is impossible for me to remember what I have posted and what I have not posted. I do not recall having posted this earlier, but it sounds familiar. Whatever.

From oilprice.com:

ConocoPhillips is focusing on its U.S. shale business and is getting ready to sell some or all of its North Sea assets that could fetch US$2 billion.

ConocoPhillips—which had tried to sell some of its North Sea assets in 2014 but failed—has not yet launched a sales process or appointed banks, according to Reuters’ sources.

Executives from the U.S. oil company, however, are said to have recently met and spoken with several operators in the North Sea and with bankers to “gauge the appetite for the sale”, one of the sources told Reuters.

ConocoPhillips has been operating in the UK and Norwegian parts of the North Sea for more than 50 years.

In the UK, ConocoPhillips’s total production in 2017 stood at 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).

The Dow is down 200 points, almost 1%. COP is up 0.7%, flirting with a 52-week high, and paying a dividend of 1.64%.  COP was paying 74 cents/share in 2015, and then abruptly cut it to 25 cents/share that same year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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The Only Question: Which Singer To Feature With This Song

Nope: No Question

Faded Love, Patsy Cline

From wiki:

Due to the airplane crash that ended Cline's life, her version was never released on a studio album. Instead, it was belatedly released on Patsy Cline's Greatest Hits, a compilation album in 1967. Cline's version was originally intended to be the title cut for a planned album and was made at what turned out to be the last recording session before her death.

The Jarvie Manuscript -- Re-Posted -- May 15, 2018

Re-posting. This was originally posted November 5, 2017, not even a year ago, but with recent queries/comments from some readers, I thought this might be worthy to post again.

Note: in a long note like this there will be formatting errors, typographical, and factual errors. Go to linked source if this is important to you.

I assume that I saw this paper years ago, and it's even possible I read some of it. LOL.

But now that I understand the Bakken a whole lot better and in light of Lynn Helms' recent comments, it is time to go through this article a lot more closely.

The author is Daniel M. Jarvie. The manuscript was submitted for publication in February, 2000. As a reminder, the North Dakota Bakken boom began seven years later. The North Dakota Bakken boom was preceded by a smaller, perhaps unnoticed by most, the eastern Montana Bakken boom, which began in 2000, about the same time this manuscript was submitted.

Jarvie gave his mailing address as Humble Geochemical Services, Humble, TX.

For newbies:

• 2000: a mini-Montana Bakken boom had just begun
• 2007: the North Dakota Bakken boom began

The Abstract

The lead sentence in the abstract is remarkable. It begins:

The Williston Basin has often been used as a model for petroleum exploration and production in basins around the world ...

Other data points from the abstract:

• carbonate source rocks in the Madison Group were overlooked for many years
• Jarvie came up with conclusions based on geochemical analysis of dead oils from 16 producing horizons (remember: Lynn Helms suggested 17 oil-producing horizons)
• the oils from these 16 horizons can be distinctly typed and correlated

His analysis would further elucidate the dominant Madison Group petroleum system in the Williston Basin, while also elucidating secondary petroleum systems including the Duperow, Red River, and Bakken-Lodgepole systems as well as other minor systems

• Madison Group:
• carbonate source rocks
• enriched in 6-carbon ring light hydrocarbons, toluene and methylcyclohexane
• while this 6-ring preference is generally thought to be indicative of terrestrially sourced oils, these oils are definitively derived from carbonate or marly shale source rocks
• Bakken oils:
• enriched in 5-carbon ring light hydrocarbons such as the alkylated cyclopentanes, which appears characteristic of a clay-rich, marine shale source
• Red River oils:
• enriched in normal paraffins and exhibit characteristic Ordovician-sources (G. prisca) oil fingerprints
• other unique petroleum systems:
• Duperow
• Winnipegosis
• Deadwood
• the single Spearfish oil groups with Madison oils
• Nisku oils are principally grouped with Bakken oils  
• Interlake oils are principally grouped with Red River oils

Introduction

The Williston Basin: an intracratonic, sag type Paleozoic basin, located on the western shelf of the North American Craton

Intracratonic basins are the classic type of sedimentary basin. Notable examples include the Williston, Michigan and Illinois basins of North America, the Maranhao basin of Brazil, and the Murzuk and Kufra. 

From Dr Abbas Mansour on sedimentary basins: The Williston basin is the classic example of an intracratonic basin. It contains some three kilometres of rocks of all periods from Cambrian to Tertiary, with notable gaps only in the Permian and Triassic. Sedimentation spanned a range of environments including fluvial and marine sands, reefal carbonates, evaporites and subwave- base pelagic muds. Deep-sea, turbidite and deltaic fades, igneous activity and shallow syndepositional faulting are all absent.

Prescient comment: "the impact of a new play can be dramatic"

Bakken-sourced Lodgepole oils had one year production rates accounting for 10% of the production totals in 1996 alone; this play was described by Lever and Anderson (1984) about 10 years prior to the major Lodgepole discovery in Stark County, ND

Lodgepole oils had one year production rates accounting for 10% of the production totals in 1996 alone 
 
Madison Group reservoirs account for 61% (750 million bbls of oil) of North Dakota's Williston Basin historical oil production (remember, this paper was published back in 2000)

Little attention has been given the source of Duperow oils even though Duperow reservoirs are the second highest producing horizon, exceeding Red River Foundation by about a percentage point

Combined Madison Group, Duperow, and Red River reservoirs account for over 80% of North Dakota's oil productioon

Bakken reservoirs account for 3.2% of production (remember, this paper was published back in 2000)

Oil typing and petroleum systems analysis in the Williston Basin were first published by Williams (1974) and Dow (1974) who detailed 3 petroleum systems as the Tyler, Bakken-Madison, and Winnipeg-Red Riverusing sterane biomarkers Grantham and Wakefield (1988) suggested that an effective source rock was present in the Mission Canyon Formation

Osadetz (1992) suggested and confirmed (1995) a Lodgepole source for Madison oils 

Price and LeFever (1995) described a "dysfunctionalism" in the hypothesized Bakken-Madison petroleum system based on quite different saturate and aromatic gas chromatographic data between the Bakken and Madison Group oils 

• using C7 light hydrocarbon data, Madison, Bakken, and Red River oils were typed and characterized as separate oil families (Jarvie, 1997, Obermajer, 1999)
• further correlation of an organic-rich Mission Canyon carbonate source source to various Madison oils was achieved using light hydrocarbons and biomarkers (Jarvie and Walker, 1997)  
• they also demonstrated the presence of organic-rich intervals throughout the Madison Group including 3 organic-rich Mission Canyon horizons (up to 14% TOC) in the Denielson #1 well in Sheridan County, MT 
• on the other hand, based on same criteria, they correlated the Lodgepole mound oil in the Conoco Kuntz well in Stark County, ND, to the underlying Bakken Formation, although organic rich False Bakken rocks have nearly identical fingerprints 
• while Osadetz (1992) suggest a Lodgepole source as opposed to Mission Canyon source (Jarvie and Walker, 1997) for Madison Group oils, there is, in part, some discrepancy over nomenclature
• for example, in Osadetz and Snowdon (1995), the Tilston Member is shown to be in the Lodgepole Formation, wherease in the US, the Tilston Member is placed in the lower Mission Canyon Formation (multiple studies, 1966, 1987)
• in addition, other intervals in the Mission Canyon Formation have high source potential such as the Richey Shale and other markers

The Madison

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH FOR OIL TYPING

OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

Samples -- see linked source
Results -- see linked source

Prospective Williston Source Rocks

Madison Group oils: the thickness of these prospective source units range from 50 ft thick on the fringe of the basin to 200 - 300 ft thick in the central part of the Williston Basa detailed study of Madison sources in the central part of the Williston Basin has not yet been completed

Quantitative Gas Chromatographic Fingerprints, Yields, and Ratios

• paper describes the Ordovician oil set 
• the Madison Group oils have very low pristane-to-phytane ratios; whereas typical Bakken oils have values greater than 1.00  
• these data indicate several segregated families of oils following distinctive maturation trends
• the Madison, Bakken, and Red River oils are inferred to be derived from different source rocks  
• certain oils group with these 3 main groups including the Spearfish with Madison oils, the 4 Lodgepole and 4 Nisku oils with Bakken oils, and Interlake and Winnipeg oils with Red River oils  
• the single Madison oil plotting with the Bakken-Lodgepole oils is the Northlustre Field oil in Valley County, MT and is likely a Bakken or mixed source oil 
• there are large differences in sulfur contents among the Madison oils with oils in the northwestern part of North Dakota (Burke, Renville, Ward, and Bottineau counties) having the highest values 
• in general, high sulfur oils have lower API gravities 

In summary:

• Spearfish-Madison Group
• Lodgepole-Bakken-Nisku Group
• Red River Groups
• Madison-Bakken mixes
• Madison-Red River mixes
• Bakken-Duperow mix oil

Long, long discussion of the various oils -- see linked source

Skip ahead to seals

SEALS

Interesting, interesting, interesting:

The lack of correlation of Madison oils with Bakken oils except in certain highly faulted locales demonstrates that seals are effective between the Bakken and Madison as well as other horizons.

But then this: wherever overpressuring occurs within the Bakken, it is effectively a pressure-sealed system

Benzing and Shook (1996) hypothesized that pressure seals form in the presence of interstitial gas and the Bakken has been shown to generate gas at low maturity.

In addition, an overpressured system has significantly increased storage capacity (Holm, 1998) enabling such a system to retain more of its generated products, which will either be expelled in the presence of fractures or further cracked to light hydrocarbons 

CONCLUSIONS

1. Madison oils are distinct from Bakken oils indicative of different sources. This is based on 6-ring preference in the C7 hydrocarbons shown by Madison oils which is evident in Madison source rocks as well as biomarker data, the latter of which demonstrates that Madison Group oils are derived from carbonate or marly shale source rocks

2. Mixing of Madison and Bakken oils does not appear to be extensive in the US Williston Basin (unlike int he Canadian Williston Basin where there is a continuum suggesting high input of Bakken oil into Madison reservoirs

3. A single Spearfish oil from McHenry County, ND, correlates with Madison Group oils

4.  Lodgepole mound, Bakken, and most of the Nisku oils studied are Bakken-sourced oils with the Lodgepole oils being lower maturity oils than typical Bakken-produced oils

5. Some Madison Group oils in this study are mixed Bakken-Madison sourced oils. These oils are form E. Poplar (Roosevelt County, MT) and McGregor Field (Williams County, ND). The McGregor oil may have some Duperwon input in lieu of, or in addition to, Madison input

6. Duperow and Winnipegois oils are different from each other and other oils, but show considerable variabilty perhaps due to mixing or commingling of production; it is likely that there are separate sources for these oils

7. Red River oils are rich in paraffins

8. see linked source

9. see linked source

10. A single Tyler oil is likely derived from a marly shale source within the Tyler or Heath formations; these oils have been shown to be quite variable, however

Note: marly shale --  Marl or marlstone is a calcium carbonate or lime-rich mud or mudstone which contains variable amounts of clays and silt. The dominant carbonate mineral in most marls is calcite, but other carbonate minerals such as aragonite, dolomite, and siderite may be present.

An Inconvenient Truth -- May 15, 2018

This is an incredible story. Many decades ago, I spent a summer north of the Arctic Circle, near Barrow, Alaska, studying the photosynthesis of grasses growing that far north. We assumed --one of many potential fudge factors -- that atmospheric CO2 would not change. Arctic grasses are much more efficient than Iowa corn using solar energy to convert CO2 to carbohydrate energy. We were studying whether it was possible to help Iowa corn increase its photosynthetic efficiency based on what we learned in Alaska. Something tells me that research came to a dead end.

Had we known that atmospheric CO2 would increase over the ensuing decades, our research would have been redundant, as the British say.

So, here it is, from the Brits:

Global greening is the name given to a gradual, but large, increase in green vegetation on the planet over the past three decades. The climate change lobby is keen to ensure that if you hear about it at all, you hear that it is a minor thing, dwarfed by the dangers of global warming. Actually, it could be the other way round: greening is a bigger effect than warming.

It is a story in which I have been both vilified and vindicated. Four years ago, I came across an online video of a lecture given by Ranga Myneni of Boston University in which he presented an ingenious analysis of data from satellites. This proved that much of the vegetated area of the planet was getting greener, and only a little bit was getting browner. In fact, overall in 30 years, the green vegetation on planet Earth had increased by a rather extraordinary 14 per cent. He said this was occurring in all vegetation types — from tropical rainforests to arctic tundra.

What was responsible for this ecological good news? He credited rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere for half of the greening — rather than, say, the application of agricultural fertiliser, warmer temperatures or increased rainfall.

Carbon dioxide, along with water, is the raw material that plants use to make carbohydrates, with the help of sunlight. So it stands to reason that raising its concentration should help plants grow.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+7 -- May 15, 2018

Pending:

• Director's Cut, due to be released this afternoon, 2:00 p.m. CDT
• weekly US crude oil inventory estimates, API data, 3:30 p.m. CDT

Bankless in Seattle: this is quite a story. Not enough time to post much or comment -- the city of Seattle vowed to "break up" with Wells Fargo Bank but the city was unable to find any other bank that wanted to do business with the city -- wow; stuck with Wells Fargo for three more years; of course, by then, things will have been patched over, and all forgiven; it appears this match was made in heaven

Clueless in Seattle: with Amazon's threat to quit expanding in Seattle, the city cut back on the "head tax" -- but still the city council voted 9 - 0 to place a huge tax on any company in the city grossing at least $20 million / year.

Aluminum in Apple: From The Washington Post --

Apple, the largest publicly traded company in the world, joined a major collaboration last week that could change how it gets one of the key components that makes its ubiquitous gadgets look so sleek: aluminum.

And it is looking as though, simply by seeking out a greener component for iPhones and Macs, the tech giant just might push an entire industry in a new direction.

Along with major U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa and multinational mining behemoth Rio Tinto, Apple announced a collaboration in Canada to fund a technology that, the companies say, can remove carbon dioxide emissions from the high-temperature smelting process that goes into making aluminum. Alcoa and Rio Tinto also announced a joint venture named Elysis to scale up and commercialize the technology, in which the government of Canada and Apple will invest.

Comment: Ford, the first to move to aluminum for its pick-ups, I believe, is pushing the entire US automobile industry in a different direction.

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Death Spiral

No, this is not another Tesla story. Wind farms in Europe. From my favorite "global warming" site,

How do you know when an industry is a loser? When even repowering old turbines, which were put in the best spots, is not worth the trouble unless they get a subsidy, I mean, even more subsidies.

Remember the days when subsidies were needed to get a project going?

Europe is full of old windfarms. The original subsidies have run out and there’s not much appetite for new ones. Without more free money from taxpayers the most economic option for older turbines is to run them into the ground and give up on them.

Maintenance costs are the silent plague. But so too is red tape and legal approval. The age of the European turbines is reaching the point where half of the entire fleet is facing do or die decisions.

John Constable of the GWPF wonders if the wind industry in Europe may be on the point of collapse.
And Europe’s fleet is old. By 2020 (seems like a long time from now -- in fact, just two years, and by now, European countries are working their 2020 budgets) --

41% of the currently installed capacity in Germany will be over 15 years old,

44% in Spain, and

57% in Denmark.

So much more at the link. A must-read.

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Tuesday, May 15, 2018

OPEC output rises: well, technically yes, but, c'mon man, give me a break. The group's total crude output rose by 12,000 bopd in April. Total production:  31.9 million bopd.

• 12,000 / 31,900,000 = 12 / 31,900 = 0.000376 or 0.0376%
• I'm truly impressed by OPEC's discipline
• of course, Venezuela has helped immensely

Trade war. For those who say there is no need for taking on China's high tariffs, they may want to read this Quartz article. Yup, confirmed. China places a 25% tariff on American autos. Elon Musk says he can't compete with that. Elon Musk tried to "partner" with a Shanghai company to avoid the tariff but China did not allow that.

Not enough stuff. Looks like "no one" wants the Obama library in Jackson Park, Chicago.

A federal lawsuit filed by a Chicago nonprofit in an attempt to block the Obama Presidential Center from being built in Jackson Park accuses organizers of pulling an “institutional bait and switch” by shifting the center’s purpose away from being a true presidential library.

Comment: my hunch is that Obama wanted a proactive "library," focusing on the future, not the past
Comment: the article says that the Obama library would not have been a "traditional presidential library"

• my hunch: 90% of the reason may have had to do with a "forward-looking" facility, but I also strongly feel that Obama simply did not have enough "stuff" to fill a "presidential library
• except for ObamaCare, and taking out Obama bin Laden, not much accomplished; and, a Nobel Peace Prize
• on the other hand, in less than 18 months, Trump has already accomplished much of his agenda; passed a huge tax law; moved US embassy to Jerusalem (something several administrations had supported, never accomplished); North Korean - South Korean peace summit; major Iran initiative; all while under investigation by Mueller -- the latter alone will require a full wing of a presidential library; and, a US Senate that delayed confirmations and outright denied others

 
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$71.66↑↑	5/15/2018	05/15/2017	05/15/2016	05/15/2015	05/15/2014
Active Rigs	60	51	27	83	191

RBN Energy: gas flows shifting across Texas as new supply outpaces new demand.