Turkeys --October 24, 2022

New York Times: "turkeys will cost more than ever this year." Let's fact-check that.

Walmart, yesterday, turkey: $1.48 / pound, not Butterball.

Last year: $99 cents / pound. See below.

An increase of 50%. 

*******************************
Protein

Store-bought rotisserie chicken:

• $4.99 - $8.99 per chicken

Chicken:

• 2020: $1.13 / lb
• 2021: $1.80 / lb

Salmon:

• least expensive price I can find at local grocers: $9.99 / lb; sometime on sale, down to $6.99 / lb

Retail ground beef:

• around $4.50 / lb but varies widely

Brisket:

• around $4.50 / lb but varies widely

Turkey:

• locally, today, Target, Butterball: 99 cents / lb

Turkey, major grocery chains, 2020, last Thanksgiving:

• Albertsons: 89 cents / lb
• Aldi: as low as 69 cents / lb for Shady Brook frozen young turkeys
• Costco: 99 cents / lb (that was last year)
• Kroger: 37 cents / lb; as low as 29 cents / lb for frozen, whole Kroger Tender & Juicy young turkeys
• Sam's Club: $1.19 / lb
• Target, Butterball: 99 cents / lb
• Trader Joe's: $1.99 for Trader Joe's brands; $2.99 for kosher, store brand
• Walmart: 98 cents / lb Butterball, or as low as 68 cents / lb for other brands

I'm going to be home alone for Thanksgiving but at 69 cents / lb for protein -- Kroger -- I'm going to cook a turkey and then freeze in small, individual packages. This is almost a no-brainer. 

With Lego: It's All About The Mini-Figure, Part 2 -- October 24, 2022

Yesterday I wrote, "with Lego, it's all about the mini-figures."

Today, in The Wall Street Journal: "with Lego fanatics, it's all about the mini-figures."

Wow, I love to blog.

Will Fox News Report It On "Front Page" Of Its Website? October 24, 2022

Apparently "ex-Minneapolis law enforcement officer pleads guilty in George Floyd death."

Will Fox News report this story on its "front page" of its website? Inquiring minds want to know. 

*********************

Later

Readers told me the story was posted by Fox News but it was "buried" and one needed to google / search the Fox News website to find it. Apparently it was on the Fox app but I don't have the app. One would have to be  a pretty hard core Fox supporter to have the app. But again, one would, according to one reader, have to search the app to find the story. Other mainstream media -- including my news feed -- pushed the story to me as a "breaking, headline" story. Not Fox News.

And that's the problem I have with  Fox News. 

By the way, a business newspaper, The WSJ, posted the George Floyd story on the front page of its website.

For the record, I bookmark three "general" new sites: Fox News, The WSJ, and PowerLine. I seldom vist PowerLine any more -- it's too much of "an-inside-Minnesota-politics" rag. I check out Fox News every day, first think in the morning, just to see the spin. I check out The WSJ only when the market is surging (in general, there are exceptions).

Copper -- For Investors -- October 24, 2022

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Freeport-McMoRan: 

SCCO:

SCCO: Simply Wall Street. After SCCO's announcement to cut quarterly dividend from 75 cents to 50 cents.

Overall, the dividend looks like it may have been a bit high, which explains why it has now been cut. While we generally think the level of distributions are a bit high, we wouldn't rule it out as becoming a good dividend payer in the future as its earnings are growing healthily. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.

Copper - China: posted earlier this morning by another analyst. Link here. 

Focus On Fracking -- October 24, 2022

Focus on fracking: link here.  

The lede:

• natural gas prices fell 23% to a 7 month low; 
• US oil supplies at a 20½ year low; 
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a new 38-year low;
• total oil + oil products supplies at a 17½ year low; 
• record low DUCs, with DUC backlog at 4.5 months

The latest US oil supply and disposition data from the EIA: 

•  US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 14th indicated that after a sizable increase in our oil exports and a modest decrease in our oil imports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 6th time time in 10 weeks, and,
  
• for the 27th time in the past 47 weeks, despite another big oil release from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve and despite another ​million barrels per day ​of oil supplies that could not be accounted for....
• our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 156,000 barrels per day to average 5,908,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 116,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 1,266,000 barrels per day to average 4,138,000 barrels per day, which together meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to an import average of 1,770,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 14th, 1,422,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. 
• over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly 100,000 barrels per day higher at 12,000,000 barrels per day, and 
• hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 13,770,000 barrels per day during the October 14th reporting week…

Could a New LNG Export Terminal Be Coming to the Marcellus/Utica's Backyard? RBN Energy -- October 24, 2022

See tag.

RBN Energy: could a new LNG export terminal be coming to the Marcellus / Utica's backyard? Archived.

Without a doubt, the two biggest changes to U.S. natural gas markets in the last 15 years have been the Shale Revolution and the development of LNG exports. 

These completely upended the way gas flowed in this country, with the Northeast now home to the largest gas-producing basin and the Gulf Coast — including its fleet of LNG export terminals — now the U.S.’s largest demand center. Production growth in the Marcellus/Utica has stalled, however, largely due to the regulatory and legal challenges associated with building new pipeline takeaway capacity. One possible fix would be a new East Coast LNG terminal, which in addition to having easy access to cheap, almost-local gas would also be close to gas-hungry European markets. But just how likely is such a project? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the advantages and hurdles of developing LNG export capacity on the East Coast.

New terminals?

New Fortress Energy had been planning a floating LNG project on the New Jersey side of the Delaware River but it put that project on hold because of local opposition.

For now, all eyes are on Penn American Energy, which has been developing Penn LNG, a proposed 7.2-MMtpa facility that could be built at one of four locations along the Delaware River near Philadelphia.

Penn American is in negotiations with potential offtakers, but nothing firm has been announced.

Many East Coast projects face much stronger opposition than those on the Gulf Coast, which has ended the hopes of numerous pipeline projects in and out of the area. Don’t forget that it took an intervention from arguably the most powerful member of the U.S. Senate, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, to revive the hopes of Mountain Valley Pipeline, the last major gas pipeline project still fighting its way through the development process — and MVP is still not a done deal. The project, which is more than 95% finished but still awaiting a couple of final approvals, is not expected online before 2028.

New LNG Export Terminal In Appalachia? A Number Of Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst -- All DUCs -- October 24, 2022

America, link here:

***********************
Back to the Bakken

Focus on fracking: link here. 

The Far Side: link here. 

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $83.11. Typical Monday swoon.

Natural gas: $4.885. Europe: warm autumn / early winter weather.

Wednesday, October 26, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
 None.

Monday, October 24, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
None.

Sunday, October 23, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
38602, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HA,

Saturday, October 22, 2022: 29 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 474 for the year.
38784, conf, CLR, Bonneville 9-23H,
38736, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB,
38604, conf, WPX. Samuel Packineau 8HX,

RBN Energy: could a new LNG export terminal be coming to the Marcellus / Utica's backyard? Archived.

Without a doubt, the two biggest changes to U.S. natural gas markets in the last 15 years have been the Shale Revolution and the development of LNG exports. 

These completely upended the way gas flowed in this country, with the Northeast now home to the largest gas-producing basin and the Gulf Coast — including its fleet of LNG export terminals — now the U.S.’s largest demand center. Production growth in the Marcellus/Utica has stalled, however, largely due to the regulatory and legal challenges associated with building new pipeline takeaway capacity. One possible fix would be a new East Coast LNG terminal, which in addition to having easy access to cheap, almost-local gas would also be close to gas-hungry European markets. But just how likely is such a project? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the advantages and hurdles of developing LNG export capacity on the East Coast.

Twitter And Web3 -- October 24, 2022

Apple's Siri is "web3."

Web3.

Web 3.0. 

Web3: wiki.

Schlumberger And The Red Sea -- October 24, 2022

Wow, we talked about this in 2013 -- more than ten years ago! From Sunday, April 7, 2013.

From twitter overnight:

 

The link to the blog site above was just one of many back then. For more, search Red Sea on the blog.

Seed Oil --More Dangerous Than The Vaccine? October 24, 2022

Somehow I missed this: seed oil.

I first became aware of it just a few days ago, October 16, 2022. See #5 at this post.  

To understand, see this excellent and very long tweet. If this is accurate, this is simply amazing!

Pretty Much Says It All -- October 24, 2022

Came to Texas as fast as they could. Bought in California; moved to Texas. Photos from a Ford in our apartment complex yesterday. New arrival from California. The sticker was on the driver-side window -- Folks who are familiar with California Prop 65 will know what this is all about. 

Monday -- October 24, 2022

Buffett divs: link here.

Copper: from Michael Fitzsimmons over at SeekingAlpha --

Copper, from Bloomberg today (opinion):

China’s imports of oil, coal and iron ore all peaked back in 2020 and show few signs of revival despite Monday’s better-than-expected GDP print (copper, a key new-economy metal, is an exception). [GDP: 3.9 vs 3.3 - 3.5 expected.]

If the weekend’s changes can move China to a more economically and environmentally sustainable growth path, that’s good news for the country — and the world. A resources industry that’s grown fat for decades on its insatiable appetite for raw materials, however, should watch out

Copper, warehouses all but empty, also Bloomberg today:

China’s billion-dollar cash-for-copper trade, whereby local companies would use metal as collateral for cheap financing, is grinding to a halt as bonded warehouses are all but empty. That’s primarily because the two dominant financiers — JPMorgan Chase & Co. and ICBC Standard Bank Plc — have halted new business there.

Stagflation not: definition includes high unemployment. Link here.

Dividends: link here. From SeekingAlpha: