The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 12/20/21

Monday, December 20, 2021

Well Said -- The Shale Revolution -- December 20, 2021

From SeekingAlpha:

Barring a major discovery in the coming 11 days, the oil & gas industry will deliver its worst exploration year since 1946, according to data compiled by Rystad Energy.
As the industry has pivoted to short-cycle (shale) production, it's moved (far) away from the wildcatter business model of the past several decades.
For context Shell spent $7b in preparation and drilling for one exploration well off the coast of Alaska in 2014; in 2021 and after the $70b acquisition of BG, Shell is on pace to spend $1.5b on exploration.
The shale revolution has changed the business model for global integrateds, but with majors like Exxon, Chevron, Conoco Shell, Total, BP and others largely walking away from exploration and top-tier assets like the Brazilian pre-sal, there is a lot of pressure on the energy transition and shale patch to ensure the world avoids an energy crisis, the likes of which Europe is currently experiencing.

The Bruin FB James Wells Updated; Frack Data Provided -- December 20, 2021

The Bruin FB James wells are tracked here.

Reminder: columns below --

formation; month/year; days of production; oil production; runs, water, MCF produced, MCF sold, vent/flare;

The wells:

31458, 6,311, FB James 150-94-3A-10-6B, Spotted Horn, 33-053-07032, t11/19; 98K over 25 days; extrapolates to 118,184 bbls crude oil over 30 days; cum 604K 10/21; initial production; 14.8 million lbs proppant; 54 stages;

BAKKEN	2-2020	29	44865	44827	25134	81124	65665	9147
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	68127	68229	36123	107980	80998	20701
BAKKEN	12-2019	29	73959	74047	44884	110330	85972	19173
BAKKEN	11-2019	25	98487	97877	85594	137471	83876	51155

31457, 4,406, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-13B, Spotted Horn, 33-053-07031, t10/19; 70K over 33 days; cum 433K 10/21; early production, 25K over 7 days extrapolates to 105,883 bbls crude oil 30 days; 14.8 million lbs proppant; 54 stages;

BAKKEN	2-2020	29	33324	33339	32810	74009	59410	8863
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	50069	50124	49803	110345	83084	20841
BAKKEN	12-2019	22	39404	38999	47520	51585	39658	9501
BAKKEN	11-2019	26	45785	46703	91521	70631	34671	34647
BAKKEN	10-2019	7	24706	23790	44132	33483	3530	29704

31456, 4,617, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-12T, Spotted Horn, 33-053-07030, t10/19; 74K over 34 days; cum 197K 10/21; fracked with 8.8 million gallons of water; 8.94 million lbs proppant; 54 stages;
31455, 5,346, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-11B, Spotted Horn, t10/19; 79K over 29 days, cum 305K 10/21;
31454, 5,603, off line 10/21;, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-10T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; 85K over 28 days; cum 243K 10/20;
35962, 4,471, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-7T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 36K over 17 days; cum 174K 10/21; 8.99 million lbs proppant, 54 stages;
35963, 4,103, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-8T2, 54 stages; 9 million lbs; Three Forks second bench; Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 33K over 17 days; cum 140K 10/21;
35964, 5,029, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-9B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 43K over 15 days; cum 266K 10/21;

Notes From All Over -- December 20, 2021

XOM / Fayetteville: to be sold to Presidio Petroleum? Link here. Presidio:

founded in 2017
co-CEOs

co-founded by Chris Hammack, formerly CEO of Trinity River Energy

Trinity River Energy, a $1 billion+ E&P backed by KKR and Riverstone
Texas A&M, degree in Petroleum Engineering

co-founded by Will Ulrich

formerly head of corporate development and strategic planning for Atlas Energy
helped grow Atlas to a $10 billion enterprise; Harvard College; began as investment banker at UBS

Senator Warren: "And that's not enough."

*********************
From Twitter

Fuel Mix Chart -- ISO NE -- December 20, 2021

I posted ISO NE data earlier today. This is an update.

There is something interesting of note in the four-quadrant graphic below.

Prices are high and erratic. The wholesale cost is in the sixth decile.

But of interest is something seen in the lower right-hand quadrant, the fuel mix chart, in the four-quadrant graphic.

WPX Is Reporting Some Incredible Crosby Chase Wells In Spotted Horn -- December 20 ,2021

Again, these are incredible wells, and again, these wells are not atypical in the Bakken of the wells currently being drilled.

Updating a few of these wells, March 18, 2022:

Periodically I go through the "new wells reporting" list. Here are a few wells from a year ago, 1Q21, that came off the confidential list at that time but had not posted any production.
No cherry picking. This was simply the very first one that popped up:

37308, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 236K 1/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	14143	14155	10983	17422	5850	10882
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	20819	20676	13658	30396	15498	14553
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	20966	21033	11827	26438	26206	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23926	23825	14525	27156	21793	4950
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	27461	27369	13823	32954	19714	12815
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	26859	26859	18120	27342	23043	4010
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	47048	47364	32437	47895	39290	8450
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	48434	48462	38218	60090	5601	49147
BAKKEN	5-2021	2	5938	5595	3940	11	0	0

Others:

37307, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 272K 1/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	18916	18881	13663	28506	10066	17750
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	23969	23854	17331	30920	17130	13445
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	32542	32514	21989	40491	40227	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	20869	20796	14454	23686	18890	4448
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	28638	28542	20602	31158	18640	12093
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	32268	32268	29320	33398	25025	8362
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	54296	54595	45620	56196	20803	35393
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	45961	46511	43170	57062	4574	47410
BAKKEN	5-2021	8	14717	13868	13125	43	0	0

37306, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 266K 1/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	19777	19770	9783	18556	8218	9648
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	27387	27158	14968	33139	18959	13835
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	20923	21010	12366	26524	26304	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	26379	26269	15351	31549	25122	6017
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	31029	30925	19212	31215	18673	12117
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	28986	28986	15336	29160	21291	7610
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	53271	53650	27042	53591	48285	5151
BAKKEN	6-2021	26	58150	57771	42086	71250	6530	58361
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data, see this post;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	12700	12761	9841	14532	5452	8412
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	22598	22474	17242	30282	16590	13358
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	27981	27999	20453	35014	34768	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23132	23041	17242	26301	21116	4773
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	28521	28425	21528	31858	19058	12375
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	25179	25179	21799	26111	20162	5938
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	47797	48128	40172	49566	28581	20985
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	50888	50919	45812	63797	5581	52611
BAKKEN	5-2021	4	6275	5913	5713	21	0	0

The Crosby Chase wells: :

37308, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 159K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23926	23825	14525	27156	21793	4950
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	27461	27369	13823	32954	19714	12815
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	26859	26859	18120	27342	23043	4010
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	26859	26859	18120	47895	39290	8450
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	48434	48462	38218	60090	5601	49147
BAKKEN	5-2021	2	5938	5595	3940	11	0	0

37307, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 197K 10/21; 14,717 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 55,200 bbls crude oil over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	20869	20796	14454	23686	18890	4448
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	28638	28542	20602	31158	18640	12093
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	32268	32268	29320	33398	25025	8362
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	54296	54595	45620	56196	20803	35393
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	45961	46511	43170	57062	4574	47410
BAKKEN	5-2021	8	14717	13868	13125	43	0	0

37306, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 198K 10/21;
37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 159K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23132	23041	17242	26301	21116	4773
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	28521	28425	21528	31858	19058	12375
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	25179	25179	21799	26111	20162	5938
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	25179	25179	21799	49566	28581	20985
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	50888	50919	45812	63797	5581	52611
BAKKEN	5-2021	4	6275	5913	5713	21	0	0

37304, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 167K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	28921	28892	15603	35718	31319	3998
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	37294	37340	17694	47890	47464	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	23042	22675	10508	28457	16492	11770
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	35269	35580	17263	43562	5	43402
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	41362	41276	18420	55509	0	50923
BAKKEN	5-2021	1	939	714	22	5	0	0

A Closer Look At The Recently Completed WPX Patricia Kelly Well In Spotted Horn; A Huge Well; 216K In Less Than Six Months -- December 20, 2021

The Patricia Kelly wells are tracked here.

The well:

37232, 2,409, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, 33-053-09306, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 216K 10/21; fracked 4/13/2021 - 4/19/21; another small frack: 4.9 million gallons of water; 82.925% water by mass; proppant 16.33% by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	19745	19761	10787	24287	21459	2438
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	23244	23253	13205	26730	21601	4858
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	30576	30559	16915	35771	35521	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	32082	32243	18154	34537	34229	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	57376	57496	37963	61099	54800	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	20	52530	52093	36786	73161	67437	0

From the geologist's report:

spud: November 18, 2020;
TD: 21,674; November 27, 2020;
curve began on November 21, 221; completed November 22, 2020
lateral drilling began November 23, 2020; completed on November 27, 2020
target: 20 feet below the top of the middle Bakken
eight miles north of Mandaree;

The parent well (subsequent to this well, nine more wells on two pads):

23639, 1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, 33-053-04342, fracked 3/9/13 - 3/9/13 (a one-day frack); 2.4 million gallons of water; 16 stages; 3.23 million lbs proppant;

Recent production of the parent well, note the small jump in production when it came back on line, the well went from 3,500 bbls / month to over 16,000 bbls / month;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	4564	4568	3873	5258	4036	739
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	5413	5421	5335	6155	4185	1689
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	8127	8093	8463	9142	8725	164
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2517	2528	6238	2831	766	1905
BAKKEN	6-2021	21	4216	4262	13927	5832	5072	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	16	8310	8241	29867	15265	14135	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	28	2212	2392	887	4039	2303	1407
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	2620	2601	1070	4651	2485	1419
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	2558	2524	1105	3216	2308	160
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	2690	2758	1147	3380	2150	465

Petro-Hunt With Two New Permits; WPX Reports A Huge Well In Spotted Horn; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 20, 2021

Active rigs: NDIC is reporting 33 active rigs; one is an SWD well; I did not check for duplicates:

Scout Energy, a Heath-Madison unit; iron Hand 108: Billings County, file #3951 in Billings County; a re-entry well; this well last produced oil in 1999;
CLR with ten active rigs; possibly a duplicate; haven't checked;
Murex has an active rig; #38598;

$6823	12/20/2021	12/20/2020	12/20/2019	12/20/2018	12/20/2017
Active Rigs	32	15	54	69	51

Two new permits, #38711 - #38712, inclusive:

Operator: Petro-Hunt
Field: Little Knife (Dunn)
Comments:

Petro-Hunt has permits for two Terres wells in NWNE 18-144-97;
the wells will be sited 295 FNL and between 1715 and 1750 FEL;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

37232, 2,409, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, 33-053-09306, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 216K 10/21;
37398, 1,522, CLR, Rodney 9-29H, Cedar Coulee, 33-025-04007, first production --; t--; cum --;

Off The Net For Awhile -- Going Biking -- December 20, 2021

Lox and bagel for lunch with an ounce of Shieldaig Islay.

Sophia, age seven, received her first Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine last week, and I got my booster today.

I don't think Pfizer has the blood-clotting problems but whisky is a "natural" preventative.

Don't want to take any chances.

Will have a Shieldaig booster while watching the first of two NFL games later this afternoon.

But first, a bike ride.

Islay: home to the world's peatiest whiskies.

Russia "Reluctant" To Boost Natural Gas Flow To Europe; Rigs Don't Matter -- Saudi Arabia -- December 20, 2021

I doubt this is political but talk of sanctions on Nordstream 2 gives Russia the cover they need to cutting back on natural gas sales to Europe.

This has to do more with Russia's critical need for natural gas as winter weather starts than politics.

And if that's correct, it tells me all I need to know about "spare capacity."

Irina Slav is reporting that Russia is "reluctant" to boost natural gas flows as cold snap hits Europe.

Saudi Arabia: rigs don't matter.

Burning Oil To Generate Electricity In The US -- As Bad As Coal But A Whole Lot More Expensive -- December 20, 2021

Link here.

For the past week or so, ISO NE has been very, very affordable; wind energy bringing overall price down.

But it surprised me today. I wasn't surprised so much by the spike in price (6th decile) as I was about the "source" of that electricity: oil. Oil? Are you kidding me? I can't even imagine burning any oil at in the United States to generate electricity, but "NE" is literally right next to the biggest source of natural gas in the known universe.

The Middle East burns oil to generate electricity, but in the United States?

Whatever.

Not Only Completing Four To Six Wells Simultaneously, But Developing Three To Four Pads In Close Proximity -- December 20, 2021

Some time ago, I stated that fracking four to eight wells at a time on one pad was now the norm in the Bakken, and that operators who failed to do this on a regular basis would not be operating for long in the Bakken.

A reader at the time responded:

A few years back, some industry executive was explaining some of the economics behind not only 4 to 6 wells per pad simultaneously being drilled/completed, but also the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing 3 to 4 pads in close proximity.

I did not give that much thought at the time. I thought the reader was repeating what I had said, but I missed the second part of that: "... the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing three to four pads in close proximity."

Wow, it just occurred to me: MRO has a three-rig drilling program in the prolific Bailey and is reporting incredible wells. Likewise, CLR has a two- to three-rig drilling program in at least one of its high-density projects, the Long Creek Unit.

A Closer Look At The Most Recent FB Belford Well To Be Reported -- December 20, 2021

The Bruin FB Belford wells are tracked here.