US LNG Export Terminals -- An Update On The Race -- Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Cheniere Expansion -- November 20, 2022

Updates

December 15, 2024: Plaquemines up and running. Link here. 

December 19, 2022: update. 

Original Post 

Link here. Right now, this article is not behind a paywall at this link. The story is behind a paywall at Bloomberg. 

A must-read article for those interested in US LNG exports.

US LNG export terminals are tracked here.

The "list" tag.

Archived.

The article is too long to summarize on NFL Sunday, but this is what will be covered in depth at the linked article at the top.

While the US filled some of the supply gap by exporting huge quantities of liquefied natural gas from its seven plants, global markets are going to have to wait at least two more years before any new LNG supplies from the US come online. Three large-scale projects requiring more than $30 billion of financing are now under construction in Texas and Louisiana, yet none will be ready next year.

Two of the projects, Golden Pass LNG near Port Arthur, Texas, and the first phase of Plaquemines LNG, along the Mississippi River about 25 miles south of New Orleans, are expected to begin production in 2024, setting up a race to see which will be the eighth US export terminal. The third project, by Cheniere Energy, the US’s largest LNG exporter, will expand an existing plant in Corpus Christi and won’t begin production until late 2025.

Natural gas traders, government officials and industry observers will spend the next few years watching the projects for any signs of delay or movements ahead of schedule.

Golden Pass is a joint venture between industry titans Qatar Energy and Exxon Mobil. It began construction in May 2019.

Plaquemines, a project by the closely held Virginia-based developer, Venture Global LNG, quietly started construction in August 2021. Venture Global pulled off a near-miracle in January 2022 when it began production at its first LNG plant, Calcasieu Pass in Cameron, Louisiana, in a record 29 months after securing financing. Many wonder if it can repeat or beat that success with Plaquemines.

I still remember, vividly, the day I first wrote about all these US LNG export terminals that were planned -- that might have been ten years ago -- and getting a note from a reader who suggested it was all "pie in the sky," wouldn't happen. 

That reader never anticipated the European energy crisis -- another story that was "predicted" on the blog back in 2013 and did not anticipate the amount of natural gas that would be produced by the Bakken revolution. Amazing how things turned out. 

By the way, both the EU and Saudi Arabia saw this coming even if a lot of Americans did not.

All That Recession Tallk? Whistling Past The Graveyard? -- November 7, 2022

Yahoo!Finance morning brief.

So I'm sitting on Yahoo Finance Live on jobs report Friday, almost in a state of disbelief. Non-farm payrolls rose by an impressive 261,000. That didn’t strike me as a recessionary print. Then an economist sitting next to me says he sees a recession in 2023 and a 2% rise in the unemployment rate.

Under Armour’s third quarter sucked last week, and so did the company’s forward guidance. And yet the stock was embraced by the market. Crocs had a solid quarter, but inventory ballooned. Red flag, says my former analyst self. The Street welcomed the quarter anyway. Etsy had a squishy quarter, and the market took it in stride. Same goes EBay. ‌

Then Starbucks reported an 11% same-store sales increase despite ever-inflating prices for its various coffees. Where is the recession there? ‌

"What we focus on is really: How do we sustain that ticket?" Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri told me and Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma in an interview. "Because it isn't just pricing, it's actually volume as well, we've seen our customers purchase more... so we're seeing increased volume." ‌

And Mastercard’s CEO Michel Miebach tells me there is nothing in his business that suggests recession is imminent. ‌

"Currently, based on the data that we have, there is no such indication [of a recession]," Miebach said. "The consumer is resilient, and that resilience will last. We have no indication that there is a near-term recession."

I Guess He Meant It -- For The Archives -- November 7, 2022

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Biden Admits The Truth: "No More Oil Drilling" As Energy Stocks Set To Soar | ZeroHedge

Biden Admits The Truth: "No More Oil Drilling" As Energy Stocks Set To Soar Biden has effectively admitted that he, Energy Secretary Granholm, and others in his administration have been ly...

Thank goodnessfor North Dakota and Texas. We're still hopeful. 

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Biden's Policies As Spooky As Halloween

Update On The Top Energy Story For 2022 -- For The Archives -- November 7, 2022

Link here.

Bloomberg: 

This is one Peter Zeihan got wrong. Link here.

Also, here:

Energy giant ExxonMobil Corporation is set to sell its troubled California offshore oil and gas property while incurring a loss of about $2 billion.

Sable Offshore, a blank check company, has agreed to buy the Santa Ynez oilfield. Sable proposes resuming production at the idled oilfield by 2026, failing which, Exxon will buy back the entire business.

The Santa Ynez oilfield is located about 9 miles (14 km) off the California coast. The property includes three oil and gas platforms, a pipeline, and processing facilities.

Sable seeks approvals to produce 28,100 barrels of oil and gas daily from the current 112 wells, with the possible exploration of 100 more wells. Sable will finance about 97% of the $643 million purchase price through a five-year loan. According to Reuters, Sable is under pressure to reach an agreement by March 1 or to return investor funds.

A pipeline burst caused a major oil spill into the Pacific Ocean in 2015. Following this, the property shut down operations. Since then, Exxon has failed to successfully restart operations at the oilfield. In March 2022, Exxon’s last attempt to restart production at Santa Ynez was rejected by Santa Barbara officials. The authorities cited the excessive use of trucks to transport oil to refineries as a cause for worry.

Sable must not have gotten the "Biden memo."

Rambling -- Links To Articles -- Some Get Posted, Some Don't -- October 26, 2022

Commentary not ready for prime time.

A huge "thank you" to readers who send me links to articles of interest. It's very hard to explain why I post some and not others. Even if I don't post an article (or a link) I always go to the article and it becomes part of "the blog's DNA" even if it doesn't get published. The most recent example: several readers have alerted me to the oilprice article coming out of Germany, a wind farm being taken down to be turned back into a lignite coal mining operation. 

I would assume the biggest reason some of these articles don't get published: it takes time and it distracts me from the central purpose of the blog: to track the Bakken. 

I used to post a lot of articles on "global warming," but I seldom post those articles any more. I have my "world view" of global warming as do most folks who follow the subject to any degree, and links to "global warming" articles tend not to interest me any more. I know the scam.

In addition, I don't remember exactly "when," and I don't remember exactly "why" it happened, but outside of the Bakken, I have only two real interests with regard to the blog:

• family notes for the archives; after I die, perhaps my great grandchildren will be interested in some of the family notes and photos I post; and,
• investing: about a year ago, I suppose, I became very interested in getting much more serious about investing. I've been investing since 1984, but not with any real plan per se. But now, with a revenue stream that has built up over forty years of investing (dividends, and to some extent, capital gains) I have had to get serious about a plan. Surprisingly, developing (and sticking to) a plan has made investing much more interesting. 

So, whenever a reader sends me a link, I am looking for an investment angle. 

One exception, but that exception has also evolved. I am still fascinated by Covid-19, not the politics, but the science from sources I trust. 

The "evolution"? Now that I'm following the science much more closely and "following the money," I've become interested in the science as well as the investment opportunities. For the science, my only real source are books on the subject (not "mainstream media" articles) and CDC data as well as worldometer data. 

The CDC has added "Covid tracker, weekly."

Wuhan flu. The blog.  Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.  
Covid Data Tracker Weekly Review: link here, new.   Coovid data tracker: by community, new

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The Book Page

For anyone interested in geopolitics and the "big picture" I heartily recommend Peter Zeihan. I have read his most recent book (2022). I follow Peter Zeihan over at twitter and he recently mentioned his 2016 / 2017 book on shale. He mentioned it in such a way that I don't think he was promoting that book or trying to sell it, simply to say that he had noted something as far back as the mid-20-teens and global energy was now playing out as he envisioned, and with it, the changing global politics. 

I've just started reading the book and am really, really impressed. The importance of the book is this: it validates his views and his "predictive" abilities, if that makes sense. 

Again, my 2022-summer reading program and my 2022-autumn reading program are linked.

I just added my Covid-19 library page.

Commentary -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- October 26, 2022

The note below was generated following several discussions with different folks.

It is not ready for prime time and subject to editing.

There are two issues that have perplexed me for quite some time.

1. The shortage of workers in the US.

2. The supply chain shortage.

My nephew was in town. He and his wife are software engineers at a large IT corporation in Minneapolis area. They have worked themselves to pretty high levels in the organization.

He and I talked at length on lots of issues over the past two days.

He has thought about those two issues because at his level, they affect him and his company significantly.

For two years they have been unable to fill employee positions and it does not seem to be getting any better. Much of what I wrote about this subject on the blog yesterday was from our conversation Monday evening.

Second issue: the supply chain issue has really perplexed me and I asked him about that. I could not believe that free market capitalism couldn't have solved this problem over the past two years.

From his vantage point, the supply chain issue does not begin in the US. It begins in 3rd world countries where the basic materials like lithium (and silicon? ) come from.

I posted a chart yesterday on the blog; these raw materials come from China and Russia and Africa. And the vast majority is from China.

I know that a significant percent (50%) of Americans think the Covid-19 vaccines are worthless, and even if not worthless, probably no more effective than the "seasonal flu" vaccines, which are perhaps only 45% to 50% effective. Whatever that means. But that's fine.

However, it's very clear that the vaccines in the US do work. Even if only 50% effective -- again, whatever that means -- vaccines interrupt the spread of infection.

Interestingly, even more important, is this, the perception of things working. The fact that "we" have vaccines and we have antiviral medication to treat folks with viral pneumonia (regardless of virus) gives the government and businesses and childcare centers and schools "wiggle room" / options to stay open even if there are periodic spikes in the number of infections.

It allows "us" -- the US -- to go back to work without forcing a net-zero policy which China has. China has only one option, one tool in their toolbox, and it's a hammer. Shut down the entire city or the entire factory even if only a handful of folks test positive, never mind if they are symptomatic or even infectious.

One can't get to "net-zero" --whatever that means -- and so whenever there's even a small outbreak, the school that is affected, or the factory that is affected, in China, must shut down.

So, if China is providing 50% of the world's lithium at half a dozen mines and there's even a very, very small outbreak at one of the mines, that mine is shut down.

When a Foxconn factory is subject to shut down due to a small outbreak, it makes headlines, Tim Cook is on the phone, and the government and Foxconn try to figure out how to keep operations going.

On the other hand, when a mine is shut down, "no one" knows about it. There are no headlines and some US CEO with "no name" recognition calls and the Chinese mine operator won't even take the phone call.

Now, the really, really bad news. China has its own Covid-19 vaccine and it's considered completely ineffective. No matter how ineffective the US vaccines are, the Chinese vaccines at orders of magnitude less effective. The Chinese vaccine doesn't work and everyone knows that. In other words, we have a country -- China -- that supplies the world with the majority of raw supplies; has an impossible net-zero policy; and no vaccine.

RBN Energy talks about it today in their daily blog, and it's been discussed elsewhere but "no one gets it" yet. The earliest "they" talk about any relief is 2025.

China's "911" -- Thank You, Mr Biden -- October 23, 2022

Note: two things.

• first, this is why I love to blog. Without blogging I would not have caught the "sub-14nm" reference nor paid attention to it (see Chips, semiconductor: link here);
• second, in this very, very long article mentioning no less than half a dozen chip companies, neither TSMC nor Apple are mentioned.
  

Link here.  

September 11, 2022.

China's "911."

Exclusive: Biden to hit China with broader curbs on U.S. chip and tool exports -sources By Karen Freifeld and Alexandra Alper.

The Commerce Department intends to publish new regulations based on restrictions communicated in letters earlier this year to three U.S. companies -- KLA Corp , Lam Research Corp (LRCX.O) and Applied Materials Inc (AMAT.O), the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The letters, which the companies publicly acknowledged, forbade them from exporting chipmaking equipment to Chinese factories that produce advanced semiconductors with sub-14 nanometer processes unless the sellers obtain Commerce Department licenses.

The rules would also codify restrictions in Commerce Department letters sent to Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) last month instructing them to halt shipments of several artificial intelligence computing chips to China unless they obtain licenses. 

See link here for more.

Intel Corp (INTC.O) and startups like Cerebras Systems are targeting the same advanced computing markets. Intel said it is closely monitoring the situation, while Cerebras declined to comment.

One source said the rules could also impose license requirements on shipments to China of products that contain the targeted chips. Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.N) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) make data center servers that contain Nvidia's A100 chip.

See link here for more.

It should be noted, and Reuters did not note it in this article, that this "process" began with the Trump administration. 

For those who think / thought that Biden and family have a special interest in China, this certainly puts a hole in that "thinking."

Following "911" in the US, America went to war with the Taliban and bin Laden across the Mideast, but mostly in Afghanistan.

Could this "China's 911" be the impetus for Beijing to "try to take" Taiwan by force?

Investing And WTI -- October 19, 2022

I mentioned this to a reader earlier today:

I have never been happier with my current investment portfolio, with my "new money" allocation strategy, and with my overall investment strategy. 

For the first time in fifty years of investing, I feel like I'm "hitting on all cylinders." 

On top of this, the US macro-economy looks like it has been through the roughest patch. Folks are getting used to 5% interest rates; companies are pricing in highest costs and passing those costs on to consumers, and consumers seem to be accepting the higher costs. 

The downside (actually two):

• $7-gasoline in California and the risk of $5-gasoline across the rest of the US; and,
• the price of diesel.

There is no quick fix for the diesel issue. It's a refining problem and that's not going to change (ever?). Maybe RBN Energy will do a blog on the high price of diesel and what can be done about it. 

Today, President Biden announced another 15-million-bbl release from the SPR and WTI surged $3 / bbl. LOL. 

Anyone following this story understands what's going on. When the president announces another 15-million-bbl release from the SPR and no plans for any export ban, and WTI surges $3 / bbl one needs to sit up and take notice. This should be very, very concerning for the consumer (not concerning at all for those investors long in oil).

What's scarier? The SecEnergy has no clue.

So, how did oil companies do today?

• EOG: up almost 5%; up over $6 / share; trading at $130;
• DVN: up over 3%; up over 26 / share; trading at $72;
• XOM: up almost 3%; up almost $3 / share; trading at $104;
• CVX: up over 3%; up over $5 / share; trading at $168;
• OXY: up only 1%; up less than a $1 / share; trading at $68;

Refiners:

• MPC: up only 0.6%; up 65 cents / share; trading at $109

By the way, with regard to the 15-million-bbl release, the mainstream media got it wrong again, and once folks realized that, WTI surged. 

Covid-19 -- An Update -- October 17, 2022

Wuhan flu. The blog.  Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.

A reminder: I continue to track / follow Covid-19 but a little bit differently. See this note.

When Covid-19 "first broke," I tried to follow the science, but it was not possible, and I made the mistake of getting too involved with the politics, emotions, personalities, conspiracy theories.

Now that books are starting to appear on the subject, I am now following Covid-19 for two reasons, or from two different aspects.

First, I'm back to following the science, and it's absolutely incredibly interesting.

Second, I'm looking at Covid-19 from an investor's point of view. 

Three books:

• The Code Breaker, Spike, and Breathless.
• My on-going notes on Breathless here.
• My on-going notes on Spike here.
• On-going notes on The Code Breaker yet to appear. I've just gotten the book. 

Where we stand on Covid-19, not ready for prime time; rambling, disjointed thoughts:

• research on the coronaviruses is going to open a whole new field in medicine;
• we're going to start seeing a lot more vaccine research, and a lot more anti-viral therapy research;
• coronaviruses are really, really bad viruses, not because of the diseases they actually cause (bad colds and pneumonia), but how they could impact the severity of other viruses, or lead to new pandemics
• but, I think medical research is now "ahead" of what coronaviruses can do and we will learn to live with them just as we've learned to live with other viruses
• engineered, laboratory gain-of-function? Absolutely not; a natural source
• medical researchers understand the science, always have; gradually that will trickle down to eighth-grade biology
• flu season, 2022 - 2023, will be of interest, but the flu season of 2023 - 2024 will be much more interesting
• Chinese handling of Covid-19 pandemic after August, 2022? Can't comment. I have never been to China, I certainly don't understand their challenges.

Biden, China, And Semiconductors -- October 17, 2022

Updates

December 14, 2022: below, Peter Zeihan asks a rhetorical question, what are Beijing's options? His answer. Not many. In fact, there is one. A soft takeover of Taiwan.

Original Post

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

In the short term, what the Biden administration is doing "to" the semiconductor sector with regard to China is going to be very painful, very expensive for Americans. But in the long term, if they don't botch it, their heart is in the right place. This should have been done years ago, by Bush II, or Obama, or Trump, but it finally took "a Joe Biden" to get it done.

From Peter Zeihan today:

The Biden administration's moves against China's semiconductor industry are continuing to have serious consequences, including the largely universal resignation of American citizens working in the Chinese chip industry. 

China will rapidly find itself unable to fill in several critical gaps in terms of skilled workers, design work, technological inputs, etc. 

What are Beijing's options?  

With Europe and Japan largely on board with US action--not many. South Korea and Taiwan could address some needs, but far from all. 

China's future will likely be one where it sources inputs on the grey market--buying components or pulling chips from third-party devices and attempting to insert them in products and industries they were not designed for. It's going to be a time-consuming, ugly, imperfect process, with serious implications for high level computing, China's emerging defense platforms, telecommunications, and more.

For investors, it's another open-book test.

Botched -- October 17, 2022

I referred to the Bush II decade and the Obama decade as the "lost decades," and I do believe others have since referred to those decades as also the "lost decades." There is a tag for "lost_decade."

On Wednesday, October 12, 2022, last week, on one of my long bike rides I was trying to come up with how "we" will end up referring to the Biden decade. He will only serve one term but the policies his administration puts in place will affect the US for at least a decade.

It was amazing how fast his administration undid what the Trump administration had accomplished, but I digress. 

So, back to how to refer to the Biden administration? 

And then it struck me: "botched." 

At that time, last week, I added a neew tag, "botched_decade."

Either the next day or two days later, others came up with the same tag. LOL. Amazing. 

Link here. 

The Road To New England -- October 17, 2022

In the big scheme of things, I only follow a few "issues" outside of the Bakken. I used to follow / track articles on "global warming" / "climate change" but now that I understand what's going on and because it's generally the same story day in / day out, I tend not to follow it much any more. I've also quit following the Biden administration, and politics, in general, but occasionally post something on the latter, but I certainly don't follow Biden like I followed Bush II, Obama, Hillary and Trump. 

I don't follow the EV story as much as the "streaming wars" story.

How I decide what to track? I have no idea. Whatever seems to interest me, mostly to try to get a better understanding of something. Once I feel I have a good understanding of something, I tend to lose interest.

That's all background to ISO NE and ISO NY. How in the world did I ever get interested in those two grids / issues? It started with ISO NE and then, sometime late, to ISO NY. I started following ISO NE when they started banning new sources of fossil fuel just a few miles to the west of them and tried to replace it with wind energy. So, that was years ago. And then ISO NY when that witless representative from Long Island wanted to do the same thing. Be that as it may, others are now following the same story.

A reader alerted me to a story in The WSJ today, October 17, 2022:

New England power producers are preparing for potential strain on the grid this winter as a surge in natural-gas demand abroad threatens to reduce supplies they need to generate electricity.

New England, which relies on natural-gas imports to bridge winter supply gaps, is now competing with European countries for shipments of liquefied natural gas, following Russia’s halt of most pipeline gas to the continent. Severe cold spells in the Northeast could reduce the amount of gas available to generate electricity as more of it is burned to heat homes. [Any mention of the Utica, Marcellus, or Permian?] [Any mention of solar or wind?]

The region’s power-grid operator, ISO New England Inc., has warned that an extremely cold winter could strain the reliability of the grid and potentially result in the need for rolling blackouts to keep electricity supply and demand in balance. The warning comes as executives and analysts predict power producers could have to pay as much as several times more than last year for gas deliveries if severe weather creates urgent need for spot-market purchases.

“The most challenging aspect of this winter is what’s happening around the world and the extreme volatility in the markets,” said Vamsi Chadalavada, the grid operator’s chief operating officer. “If you are in the commercial sector, at what point do you buy fuel?”

Power producers in New England are limited in their ability to store fuel on site and face challenges in contracting for gas supplies, as most pipeline capacity is reserved by gas utilities serving homes and businesses. Most generators tend to procure only a portion of imports with fixed-price agreements and instead rely on the spot market, where gas prices have been volatile, to fill shortfalls.

The New England ISO expects that the grid can weather a mild-to-moderate winter without significant reliability challenges. However, it has warned that electricity demand could threaten to surge beyond available supply after multiple sustained periods of severely cold weather, which would result in calls for conservation similar to those issued in California in September during a regionwide heat wave.

Some of my readers have suggested we have the same problem in Texas with ERCOT. Nope, we don't.

In New England, it's a "green-led" supply problem; in Texas it's a de-regulated, free-market demand problem. Huge difference. 

The "demand" in New England is not growing; the supply if declining. In Texas, the demand is surging and Texans are doing all they can -- including renewable energy (which, or course) makes things worse to increase supply. 

In New England, the powers that be seem to be working to make things worse; in Texas, the powers that be seem to be trying to make things better, albeit with free market and politics often working at cross-purposes.

Link to ISO NE and ISO NY. 

Russia -- September 17, 2022

Added later: Orwell quote --

A complex weapon makes the strong stronger, while a simple weapon – so long as there is no answer to it – gives claws to the weak.

Complex weapon? Nukes.

Simple weapon? Drones.

Added later:

My hunch: US intelligence network is having incredible successes we will never hear about. 

I am currently reading this book, published September 13, 2022.

It's impossible to read this book, then look at what is happening on Russia's southern border, and not think there is some connection between the intelligent network of the US and what's going on in that geographic area between Moscow (37.6173° E) and Tehran (51.3347° E). 

China-Russia Axis
Not All It's Cracked Up To Be

September 18, 2022: Shanghai Cooperation Council.

Putin's meeting with Xi highlights Russia's waning status on the world stage, link here.

• Chinese President Xi Jingping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war.
• The two discussed Taiwan, Ukraine, and more, with China emphasizing finding a balance between Russia and the West.
• While Xi in many respects doubled down on China's relationship with Russia while in Uzbekistan, the Chinese leader has show sensitivity to Eurasia’s growing anxieties over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

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Original Post

Tags: Putin, Russian Empire, generational, on fire, cataclysmic losses, outsized opportunities, oil production quota, military-industrial complex.

Putin's goal only a few years ago was to re-establish the Russian Empire, weaken NATO, and work to break up the EU.

The former Russian Empire seems in worse shape than ever (see below) and NATO has added two more countries (Sweden and Finland).

US is arming Poland to the teeth, as they say, and now there is talk of long-range missiles being moved to Ukraine. 

Biden's militarization of eastern Europe is said-to-be "generational."

Russia's southern border is on fire:

Cataclysmic losses / outsized opportunities: link here.

Biden's military-industrial complex. Link here. From my favorite geo-political strategist.

Russia: crude oil production starting to drop?

Just Some Crazy Charts -- September 1, 2022

Jay Powell, the Fed chairman: it's going to be painful. 

Wage inflation?

• the state of California is looking to set wages for fast food workers.

BLS unemployment numbers:

From August 28, 2022: lots of room to put "millions out of work” and still stay below 3% U-1 unemployment.

Jobs: link here.

The "914's": link here.

Gasoline demand: it took all night but the EIA finally updated their graph, link here.

The investor with the 30-year horizon ... 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

Non-Bakken Post Of The Day -- August 29, 2022

Link here.

Pocahontas is exactly right: Fed chairman has plenty of room to put "millions out of work."

From August 28, 2022: lots of room to put "millions out of work” and still stay below 3% U-1 unemployment.

From a few days ago:

Jay Powell, a new sheriff in town:

• I don't think pundits truly understand what happened yesterday;
• the timing came right after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed and the Student Debt relief order was announced;
• Powell started his speech even before CNBC was ready to televise it;
• CNBC talking heads were standing by, waiting, never got the word, and were caught off-guard when they joined Powell's speech already in progress
• shortest major Fed speech ever; shortest Jackson Hole speech ever;
  
• most transparent Fed speech ever
• mispronounced "recession" when he said "pain"
  
• pushed a few incumbents under the bus
• the speech will be interpreted as empty words by many if Jay Powell doesn't announce a Fed meeting this next week (to convene before August 31, 2022)

For Investors: Demographics -- August 17, 2022

We touched on this earlier. A huge story that I don't see much discussed. 

But this is huge. 

The "millennials" will be larger in number than the baby boomers. It's possible the "millennial" population" is already larger than the existing "baby boomer" population. The former is growing, the latter is dying off.

How did that happen?

For investors? Bullish. 

Every "millennial" will want an iPhone. Many / most will get one. 

How many / what percent of baby boomers had an iPhone?

Just saying.

Need to add one thing:

Every "Gen Z" will want an iPhone: many / most already have a starter phone. Sophia has a starter iPhone -- wi-fi only; no sim card; and no monthly feel. That will come in two years. And Sophia, age 8 years, already knows what a sim card is. LOL. 

By the way, the Apple iPhone blue / green "alert" is one of the cleverest marketing tools ever thought up by anyone. There is talk that Apple is under great pressure to discontinue that "alert." It's seen by many to be very, very discriminatory, like calling monkeypox, "monkeypox."

Now, to clarify: the millennials overtook the baby boomers as America's largest generation back in 2020. 

• The millennials are aged 26 to 41 years of age, this year, 2022.

• In 2024, the age spread will be 28 to 43 years of age.

More than half of that age group -- the millennials -- will vote for the Democratic nominee for US president. More than half.

A lot of folks in Wyoming voted conservatively, but there are not a lot of folks in Wyoming. 

Florida is likely to go from deep red to purple, with a red governor, and a newly elected blue US senator. I am no longer (never was) convinced of a red wave in 2024.  

The big four:

• California: deep blue
• Texas: light red
• Florida: purple
• New York: deep blue

The era of the silent majority calling the shots is over. 

The boomers, aging, will appreciate the Democratic platform:

• more spending on health;
• they won't worry about the deficit (they will talk about it, but they won't worry about it)
• they will vote their pocketbook / invest to win
• boomers are driving less and less as they get older; price of gasoline becomes less of an issue;
• it will be all about healthcare and monthly utility cost (electricity, natural gas)
• inflation? 
  
• boomers tend not to move residences; housing/rental (other than used cars) is major issue with regard to inflation
• boomers less affected by inflation than gen x'ers
  
• gen x'ers more affected by inflation than millennials -- but both affected to similar extent
  
• millennials: will adapt to higher inflation
  

Generation X won' turn out to vote. 

The southern surge: will disproportionately affect blue cities with populations greater than 500,000. Elsewhere: no impact. 

See this post.

Generations defined:

More here:

• in graphic form:

Don't Read My Lips (I'm Masked Anyway) -- Watch What I Do --

I have no idea what this is all about -- I have not gone to the links yet -- but I really don't care. 

Reality will trump (no pun intended) wishful thinking. Or perhaps better said, with puns intended, "reality will trump Greta."

And for me, right, wrong, or indifferent, everything points to oil and gas being around -- and not only "around," but also a great investment -- for the next twenty to thirty years. 

US crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 7.1 million bbls; despite the SPR release of one million bopd for the past several months; this is simply astounding.

And, yes, this is from a very biased source. So, what? 

Right below that article, as long as we're doing screenshots, this screenshot:

All I could think about was the shortage of pumpkin pie filling this past year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Some screenshots may have been altered for more effect, but not to change the underlying story.

European Unemployment Rate And Putin's War -- August 14, 2022

European unemployment: a snapshot in time. All lower than the US and one could argue three of the four have a "better" social safety net than the US:

• Switzerland: 2.0%
• Czech Republic: 2.4%
• Poland: 2.7%
• Germany: 2.8%

Average for the EU: 6.0%; better than the 7.2% one year earlier.

France? 7.2%. Which leads to the next question? French unemployment rate -- history:

French unemployment rate is at a historic low.

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It Was Always About The Money

This is an item from social media I happened to run across -- the background is irrelevant. I have no idea what to make of this, but it does provide a "dot to connect and something to consider. 

I don't know if folks recall, but during the Bush - Cheney administration there was much written about NEOCONS and warmongering. 

From social media:

It was always about the money. The Cheneys and their NEOCON ForeverWar buddies had sweet, sweet graft set up to skim money off of "defense contracts," but Trump's Pax Americana was costing them billions. That's why they had to destroy him.

It's interesting to think about that comment which may or may not have any basis in fact, but alongside the very low unemployment in much of Europe during a time of war, seems fascinating. 

Gasoline Demand -- Commentary -- August 7, 2022

Note: this whole "gasoline demand" fascinated me. I learned a lot from it. Some folks are suggesting the EIA is "fudging" the "gasoline demand" figures. See ZeroHedge, August 4, 2022.

Folks are working too hard / over-thinking what's going. Once one realizes who's measuring what, it all makes sense. No conspiracy theories. Simply cash flow.

This page is simply for my benefit and for the archives.

Alex Kimani: 

While Gasbuddy claims there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand.

Comment: they can both be correct; GasBuddy and EIA measuring two different things.

 Updates

August 7, 2022: link here. 

• WTI oil prices have given up nearly all their gains since Russia invaded Ukraine, falling roughly 9.5% over the course of the week amid fears oil demand is collapsing.
• Some oil pundits are now claiming that the Biden administration has been fabricating low gasoline demand data in order to drag prices lower (there are folks pushing the "conspiracy theory"; I don't buy it; I don't buy a "conspiracy" explanation).
• While Gasbuddy claims there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand (they can both be correct; GasBuddy and EIA measuring two different things)
  
• I like Alex Kimani but he missed the target on this on, on a number of levels. 
• I was disappointed there was really no analysis; no number-crunching to try to explain things
• look at the weekly data, million bbls/day
  
• 7/15/22: 8.541
  
• 7/22/22: 9.245
  
• 7/29/22: 8.521 (w/w= minus 7.8%; y/y = -12.8% 
• one year ago, 7/31/21: 9.775
  

In the graphic above,

• EIA measures gasoline demand at "B":
• GasBuddy measures gasoline demand at "A."

The question is why the disparity. A little thinking will explain "the disconnect." 

Original Post 

We'll talk about this again later.

The interesting thing: nothing supports the suggestion that gasoline demand has fallen that much, except the price of gasoline and crude oil have both come down significantly in just the past few days. Although it's hard to say gasoline at $4.25 "has come down significantly."

Suggestion regarding previous post. As a reminder:

US gasoline demand.

With new annotation:

Suggestion:

• Measuring apples and oranges.
  

Original Post

Gasoline demand: link here.  

• then explain:
• gasoline under $4.00 / gallon and dropping fast;
• WTI below $90 and dropping fast;
• US refiners operating at a very low capacity; trending toward 90% of their operating capacity; lowest in the last few years;

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For The Archives

Road trip.

Currently I am on the road: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.

Rambling -- June 27, 2022

If you have time to click on only one link in the next twenty-four hours, this is it. There is so much packed into this link, the video, but be sure to read the comments / replies. Same exact subject, different thread. 

There must be at least fifteen comments one could make, but the first? These guys still don't get it. 

"More oil" is not the answer.

If you have time to read only article in the next twelve hours, I doubt you could find a better one: US gulf coast crude exports are breaking records. By now, even President Biden should realize how downright ridiculous / crazy / ill-advised it was to release 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR, one million bopd between now and the midterms. 

The only reason -- well, there are two reasons -- the two reasons why we're not seeing $200 oil right now:

• "people" still don't get it -- why gasoline is so pricey; and, 
• fear of recession.

Isn't this a crazy thought: even if there is a recession, oil demand will butt up against supply. I think Macron of France gets it. And maybe Boris of the UK. I don't know who's the German chancellor, otherwise I would include him/her in the mix. 

By the way, speaking of recession, there are a few folks that argue we won't see a recession -- I posted a link / graphic early along that line. 

How about this one? Griffon Corporation? For the longest time, Griffon has paid a quarterly dividend of nine cents. A penny less than a dime. Today Griffin (GFF) announced a special dividend of $2.00 / share. 

Hardly sounds like something a publicly traded corporation would do facing an impending recession.

So, a link to twitter, a link to oilprice. What else? What other recommendations? A book recommendation? Read Zeihan, c. 2022.

By the way, did you all notice this, from the oilprice link above:

The government’s unprecedented support for the domestic crude system has accelerated US supply, with levels expected to hit 13 million bpd this summer for the first time since November 2019. But the unintended consequence of federal intervention is that more barrels than ever before are being sold to international buyers.

13 million bpd.

Just a month ago, an "analyst" over at my twitter energy feed was quibbling whether the US had reached twelve million bpd. LOL. Soon to be thirteen million bopd. 

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Most Narcissistic SOB Ever

Link to SD AG -- Jason Ravnsborg -- has asked state ethics board to investigate Republican governor Kristi Noem. 

Clinical diagnosis? Borderline, narcissistic personality. 

I can't wait until his fifteen minutes of fame are over. 

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The New Yorker

Back to serious reading.

One new book a week.

I just subscribed to Science. 

Now, I'm going to try The New Yorker again. Twenty-six week cover price, $224.75, now being offered for $26 for twenty-six weeks. So, we'll see. I'll probably subscribe for one year, $52. I assume a lot of articles on the US Supreme Court. 

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A Musical Interlude

Eileen, Dexys Midnight Runners