Saturday, August 27, 2022

Reflections From Overnight -- Now That I've Had A Chance To Think About It -- August 27, 2022

Most prescient headline ever. Posted at 6:53 a.m. Friday morning, hours before Jay Powell's 8-minute warning:

Later, 3:26 p.m. CT after market close: Dow falls 1,000 points and NASDAQ slumps 4 percent. 

For investors: all things being equal, after Jay Powell's speech yesterday,

  • would you have preferred getting a 6% APR dividend; or,
  • a WSJ article telling you "your" company authorized more stock buybacks

Jay Powell, a new sheriff in town:

  • I don't think pundits truly understand what happened yesterday;
  • the timing came right after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed and the Student Debt relief order was announced;
  • Powell started his speech even before CNBC was ready to televise it;
    • CNBC talking heads were standing by, waiting, never got the word, and were caught off-guard when they joined Powell's speech already in progress
  • shortest major Fed speech ever; shortest Jackson Hole speech ever;
  • most transparent Fed speech ever
  • mispronounced "recession" when he said "pain"
  • pushed a few incumbents under the bus
  • the speech will be interpreted as empty words by many if Jay Powell doesn't announce a Fed meeting this next week (to convene before August 31, 2022)

The speech, link here.