Friday, April 11, 2025

XTO With Six New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed -- Friday, April 11, 2025

Locator: 48464B.

Louisiana judge rules New York student be deported: Trump administration is playing chess; adversaries playing checkers. Link here. Unfortunately, another court in Newark, NJ, still has the case before them. But ...

Trump's first one hundred days will end on April 30, 2025: so we still have a little more than two weeks to go. 

CO2 emissions drop significantly with switch from coal to natural gas: link here. This will spur natural gas acceptance around the world, except perhaps in Germany.

According to peer-reviewed research, greenhouse gas emissions dropped 7.5% annually as companies swapped coal for natural gas via fracking. Carbon dioxide alone fell by an even more impressive 10.5% a year. That’s not marginal—it's the kind of statistic you could put on a T-shirt. Or, ideally, a policy brief.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $61.50.

Active rigs: 34.

Six new permits, #41799 - #41804, inclusive:

  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Grinnell (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has permits for six Athena wells, lot 2, section 3-154-96, 
      • to be sited 1109 FNL and 2240 / 2390 FEL.

Eight permits renewed:

  • SOGC (5): five Dry Creek Federal wells, Lone Butte oil field, McKenzie County;
  • Koda Resources (2): two Amber permits, Fertile Valley; Divide County
  • Foundation Energy: one McDonald permits, Roosevelt oil field, Billings County;

India Looking To Meet Trump's Desire To Narrow India-US Imbalance Of Trade -- April 11, 2025

Locator: 48464INDIA.

Link here.

This story goes along very nicely with my March Madness analogy from the blog some days ago.

  • China (#1) VS Asia ex China but including India (#1) in the east; and,
  • UK (#1) VS the EU (#1) in the west.
Right now, in the western bracket, EU and UK have not yet played. Outcome to be determined.

In the eastern bracket, China and Asia excluding China are in intense pre-game planning. India is being pro-active; China is making their situation worse.
 
India appears to be playing a "fast" game and counting on their three-point shooters. 

Breaking: US Space Command Moving From Blue State Colorado To Red State Alabama -- April 11, 2025

Locator: 48462SPACECOMMAND.

Link here

If you are adult enough to accept this, it makes more sense to put Space Command headquarters in:

  • Alabama (think Huntsville);
  • Florida (think Cape Canaveral);
  • Texas (think SpaceX);
  • California (think Vandenberg AFB -- a space command air base).

But there's no reason for Space Command to be headquartered in Colorado. 

The announcement comes "later this month."

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Lapis Lazuli

In a separate note: Dr Troy E Meike for Secretary of the US Air Force. Link here.

During his confirmation hearing two weeks ago, Meink appeared to be on a glide path to confirmation, facing little to no opposition from lawmakers.

Meink has spent more than a decade at the NRO, where he oversaw the agency’s space acquisition projects for years, including managing national geospatial intelligence satellite acquisitions with a budget of over $15 billion. He has worked closely with the Space Force and has perhaps the deepest space expertise of any Air Force Secretary nominee ever.

During his confirmation hearing, Meink asserted the need for “offensive and defensive” space control capabilities, stressing that the Space Force’s investment priorities focus on “achieving space superiority through space control,” echoing the priorities of Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman.
Compare with previous secretary. Link here
Back to Meink: he may also be a key player in “Golden Dome,” Trump’s comprehensive defense initiative to protect the nation from missile threats
Many details about the project, which will require heavy lifting from various military branches, government agencies, and commercial industry, are still unclear, but the Space Force is likely to play a key role and Meink would be involved in key decisions from procurement to project oversight, as well as cross-agency coordination.

 Think Nvidia blades.

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Lapis Lazuli

Wiki.

The intense blue color is due to the presence of the trisulfur radical anion (S•− 3) in the crystal.[16] The presence of disulfur (S•− 2) and tetrasulfur (S•− 4) radicals can shift the color towards yellow or red, respectively. These radical anions substitute for the chloride anions within the sodalite structure. The S•− 3 radical anion exhibits a visible absorption band in the range 595–620 nm with high molar absorptivity, leading to its bright blue color.

The color, based on the number of sulfur radicals:

  • two: yellow
  • three: blue
  • four: red

Huge Jump In Production -- Jumps 71x Monthly Production -- April 11, 2025

Locator: 48461B.

This well was originally drilled during the boom, back in 2009; it's now 16 years old and better than ever. 

This was from December 19, 2023:

The well

  • 17509, runs south (definite), 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/09; cum 363K 2/25;
    • 2023: being re-entered to run sidtrack #2 

Then, in 2024:

Other wells on that pad were drilled 4/24.

Recent production profile for #17509:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025143131311863343660362411
BAKKEN1-202512167617082934217321571
BAKKEN12-20243164306433109979223913844
BAKKEN11-202430671667101076496119419151
BAKKEN10-20243188978903143551183711090695
BAKKEN9-2024301124211252184841473414550125
BAKKEN8-202431141381413223879157291559968
BAKKEN7-2024311701017003291561532714655621
BAKKEN6-2024301616316161468711166911504130
BAKKEN5-202431177401777756627127961274611
BAKKEN4-202427345253446710178421095195081513
BAKKEN3-2024218961877142361291118687
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-20230000000
BAKKEN9-20232234252813637821659
BAKKEN8-20233153863017960834381
BAKKEN7-20233155242815960936864
BAKKEN6-2023305316311695203490
BAKKEN5-202331565634223596289123
BAKKEN4-20233056942819757233262

Update On The Oasis / QEP Foreman Wells In Spotted Horn

Locator: 48460ARCHIVES.

I'm not seeing any new drilling activity in the area which suggests the operator is reworking the existing Foreman wells. These wells should be doing much, much better.

Foreman Permits / Wells
  • 31536, IA/2,053, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 3-2-1BHR, Spotted Horn, a great well; t2/17; cum 160K 10/18; cum 208K 2/22; cum 217K 3/24;
  • 31535, IA/2,238, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 2-2-1THR, Spotted Horn, a great well; second full month with 42K; t3/17; cum 171K 10/18; cum 219K 2/22; cum 217K 3/24;
  • 31534, IA/1,757, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 4-2-1BHR, Spotted Horn, t3/17; cum 155K 10/18; cum 205K 2/22; cum 216K 9/24;
  • 31533, IA/992, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 1-2-1T3H, Spotted Horn, t2/17; cum 74K 10/18; cum 232K 2/22; cum 100K 3/24;
  • 31532, 1,962, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 5-2-1BH, Spotted Horn, t2/17; cum 169K 10/18;
  • 31531, 1,644, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 3-2-1TH, Spotted Horn, t2/17; cum 149K 10/18; cum 198K 2/22;
  • 31690, 2,177, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 6-2-1BH, Spotted Horn, t2/17; cum 198K 10/18; cum 266K 2/22;
  • 31530, 1,822, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 12-11-1-2T2H, Blue Buttes, t2/17; cum 108K 10/18; cum 129K 2/22;
  • 31689, 2,003, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 12-11-1-2BH, Blue Buttes, t2/17; cum 183K 10/18; cum 275K 2/22;

  • 21331, AB/2,164, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 5-2/1H, Spotted Horn, 28 stages, 3.4 million lbs;, t1/12; cum 385K 10/18; cum 408K 11/20; cum 442K 2/25;
  • 29629, offline/294, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 6-2-1TH, Spotted Horn, t4/15; cum 231K 10/18; cum 291K 1/25;
  • 28968, offline/2,029, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 36-35-1-2LL, Blue Buttes, t4/15; cum 318K 10/18; huge bump 10/16; cum 371K 2/22; cum 395K 8/24;
  • 28931, back on line/2,016, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 1-2-1BH, Spotted Horn, t4/15; cum 303K 10/18; cum 352K 2/22; cum 373K 2/25;
  • 28932, 2,472, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 2-2-1BH, Spotted Horn, t5/15; cum 326K 10/18; cum 395K 2/22; cum 430K 2/25;
  • 28933, 2,704, Oasis/QEP, Foreman 1-2-1TH, Spotted Horn, t5/15; cum 333K 10/18; cum 389K 2/22; cum 417K 2/25;

Catching Up On Links -- April 11, 2025

Locator: 48459ARCHIVES.

Catching up on links.

California Medi-Cal:



California bullet train
: to put that in perspective, original cost estimates for the bullet train was $33 billion. That cost estimate has now surged to $128 billion.

California: Governor Newsom using "smoke and mirrors" to assure California voters the state is not "broke" because of all the money being spent on illegal immigrants. Link here

Twelve million new Americans surged across the border during the Biden administration and most of them stopped first in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California. Most of those who arrived first in California, stayed. Many who first arrived in Texas left as quickly as they could for a sanctuary state.
I still think Texas should offer bus vouchers to all non-residents coming across the border from Mexico. Bus vouchers: one-way to California, New York, and/or Illinois. Vouchers to Washington, DC, would come with $100 spending money -- real US currency. In all cases, street addresses for free housing at the city of destination.
A year ago physicians' offices were standing room only; all of a sudden, these same physicians' offices now have more than enough open seating. Victor Davis Hanson was first to report on this new phenomenon. Twelve million folks laying low for now.

Amazon: continues to deliver. I am so impressed. Among everything else, I cannot even imagine how much I've saved in mailing costs.

Voting in federal elections: US House passes bill requiring proof of citizenship. Link here. Will John Thune deliver?

The grid: PJM, the grid, google, and Tapestry. Link here. This all points to huge demand for electricity going forward. And, here.

Polestar: anyone can make a luxury EV. Link here. The trick is to make money. So, we'll see. Also, don't forget: Polestar is a Chinese company. Lucid is a Saudi company. Both with deep pockets. Tesla is a battery and an operational "renewable regulatory credit" company.

Ouch: Intel CEO -- Chinese-American or American-Chinese or American or Chinese? Link here. Under Biden it didn't matter. Under Trump, it will. Link here, also.

American opportunity, American exceptionalism, Americans keeping America great, link here to The WSJ:

In half a lifetime, Jonny Kim has achieved the American dream three times over.
He was a Navy SEAL.
Then he graduated from Harvard Medical School. [It's one thing to graduate from Harvard Medical School; it's another thing to practice military medicine overseas at a remote location. Raise your hand if you've done that.]
And on Tuesday, he blasted off as part of his latest act: astronaut.
When novelist Wesley Chu first learned about Kim, a 41-year-old father of three who is also a Navy pilot, his first reaction was awe.
His second: “Thank God my mom is not friends with his mom.”
After word of his feats spread, Kim became a global source of inspiration. And yet, to many of the same people who glance at his résumé and can’t help but compare it to theirs, he has also conjured up a bit of another feeling.
Dismay.
This has been especially true in the Asian-American community, where Kim, the son of South Korean immigrants, has been simultaneously lauded as a hero—and feared, only half-jokingly, as “every Asian kid’s worst nightmare.”
The worry: No matter what they achieve, their high-demanding immigrant parents will say Jonny Kim already did that—only better. “We accomplished all this stuff, but really, it’s what he did that matters,” Chu said.
Kim became an internet meme among Asian Americans, who frequently take to social media to express gratitude that he’s not a relative. NASA’s social-media posts about Kim are flooded with comments expressing similar sentiments. “As a fellow Asian, I hope my parents do not get to read this. But, safe journey my man,” one wrote. Chu wrote about that feeling of inadequacy in a viral post, which inadvertently hammered in the point by containing a typo.

The US astronaut program: where really, really, really bright, high-achievers, go to die (figuratively). Chu needs to do his four years as an astronaut and then do something really, really big. Much could be said.

Solar -- Texas -- Major Installation Hits Milestone -- April 11, 2025

Locator: 48458SOLAR.

Question not being asked: why this location? Yes, once electricity enters the grid it can go anywhere, but generally, it seems, projects provide electricity for local / regional consumption. LDC? ERCOT debacle some years ago? But solar not much good in the middle of winter. Permian expansion? Bottom line: ERCOT is an island. Electricity produced here, stays here. 

Everything's bigger in Texas: Electrek reports on a "vast 600 MW Texas solar farm." Link here. To put that in perspective, a typical nuclear reactor generates around 1,000 MW (1 gigawatt) of electricity. 

  • developer: Vesper Energy
  • project: Hornet Solar
  • milestone: one million panels installed
  • location: Swisher County, TX (never heard of it before)
  • output: 600 MW, enough to power 160,000 typical homes
  • Vesper's total investment in state of Texas: $45 billion -- that's with a "B"
    • Vesper: for solar, currently ranked #2 in the US with 37 GW installed
    • again, Vesper's total installed based: 37 GW; Hornet Solar, huge, will add 1.6% to Vesper's total solar output in US
    • Vesper: for solar, will install 51 additional GW over the next five years
    • will move Vesper into #1 when additional projects come on line
  • tax revenue: will generate > $100 million in new tax revenue to Swisher County
  • Swisher County: at the base of the Texas panhandle where the panhandle connects to the rest of Texas; five counties south of Oklahoma; we're talking remote.
    • county population: 7,000
    • county seat: Tulia, population 5,000
    • I can't even imagine what 7,000 folks will do with $100 million annually, although the July, 1999, drug bust could provide some interesting commentary
  • footprint: 1.36 modules covering more than six square miles
    • a typical North Dakota township is six-mile square, or 36 square miles
    • a typical North Dakota section contains 640 acres, and is one-square mile
    • Hornet Solar: six "North Dakota" sections of land

Excited: when one steps back and looks at this objectively -- this is simply amazing! Huge project. All this electricity for this one state! One really gets the feeling that the US is on the cusp for a huge energy breakout. Except perhaps for Spain, western Europe has no land for such huge solar projects. Likewise, wind -- Europe doesn't have the space. But then Europe doesn't need more electricity; demand is falling. 

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Masters

After the first round, the cut looks like it will be +1 or less. Perhaps one under will be the cut. 

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Inflation Watch

Are you paying upwards of $6.99 for a Hallmark greeting card at your local supermarket?

Here, north Texas. $2.99 for two classy cards. Too bad first class stamps are up to 75 cents or thereabouts. I've lost track; using forever stamps bought some time ago.

Solar In Texas In The News; DOD Change -- April 11, 2025

Locator: 48457B.

US Supreme Court on deportation: "weak" response. And the court's "order" for the administration to initiate efforts to get a single individual back from El Salvador was unsigned. It's not unusual for such orders to be released by the high court unsigned but it certainly suggests the court is not eager to ... it's hard to see that this story has any legs.

Pete Hegseth: two weeks ago I suggested Hegseth was at high risk to be "fired" within two weeks if a bigger story did not come along for the US media to shift their attention. That story held nicely.

Mexico: Trump finds another pressure point. Reported a few weeks ago but apparently back in the news. Water rights.

Iran, Mideast: feels too quiet.

DOD: Lt Gen Dan Caine confirmed as the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Confirmed, 60 - 25 vote. He was promoted to four stars prior to the vote. Several "firsts" in his appointment, and several "near-firsts."

Retired USAF F-15 pilot, earning nickname "Razin Caine" for his "aggressive" behavior as a pilot.. Experienced CIA background. Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, wiki. Bio, wiki. Bio, CNN.
He is the first chairman of the JCS to have never served at the rank of four-star general or admiral before being nominated and the first to be nominated in retirement.
Has now returned to active duty status, as a four-star general. He was a "serial entrepreneur and investor" from 2009 to 2016 while serving part time in the National Guard. No history of tendering his resignation prior to combat deployments. 
Graduated from Hahn American High School, in Hahn, Germany, an F-16 base when I was stationed in Europe decades ago. His father was also a fighter pilot. Retired in December, 2024. Venture capitalist among other financial interests. Follows "dramatic" firing of senior officers since Trump re-elected president.

Reserves. Oil and gas, not military. Huge jump in Gulf of America estimates. Link here.

Making America Great Again: good, bad, indifferent. Everything suggests Trump is working 24/7 to making good on his promise to radically change how things are being done in Washington. Still seems to be the most transformational president since FDR. Will set a new bar for future presidents, although unlikely few, if any, could hit that bar.

Everything's bigger in Texas: Electrek reports on a "vast 600 MW Texas solar farm." Link here. To put that in perspective, a typical nuclear reactor generates around 1,000 MW (1 gigawatt) of electricity. 

  • developer: Vesper Energy
  • project: Hornet Solar
  • milestone: one million panels installed
  • location: Swisher County, TX (never heard of it before)
  • output: 600 MW, enough to power 160,000 typical homes
  • Vesper's total investment in state of Texas: $45 billion -- that's with a "B"
    • Vesper: for solar, currently ranked #2 in the US with 37 GW installed
    • again, Vesper's total installed based: 37 GW; Hornet Solar, huge, will add 1.6% to Vesper's total solar output in US
    • Vesper: for solar, will install 51 additional GW over the next five years
    • will move Vesper into #1 when additional projects come on line
  • tax revenue: will generate > $100 million in new tax revenue to Swisher County
  • Swisher County: at the base of the Texas panhandle where the panhandle connects to the rest of Texas; five counties south of Oklahoma; we're talking remote.
    • county population: 7,000
    • county seat: Tulia, population 5,000
    • I can't even imagine what 7,000 folks will do with $100 million annually, although the July, 1999, drug bust could provide some interesting commentary
  • footprint: 1.36 modules covering more than six square miles
    • a typical North Dakota township is six-mile square, or 36 square miles
    • a typical North Dakota section contains 640 acres, and is one-square mile
    • Hornet Solar: six "North Dakota" sections of land

Trade war: China has raised tariffs to an astounding 134% or something to that effect and says future increases would be "futile." So, at least we have a "bookend."

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.05.

New wells:

  • Sunday, April 13, 2025: 45 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 252 for the year,
    • 41167, conf, CLR, Arley 6-18H1,
    • 41137, conf, CLR, Shadowcat 1-31H,
    • 39038, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 4H,
    • 30295, conf, Hunt Oil, Palermo McNic 156-90-22-23H-3,
  • Saturday, April 12, 2025: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 248 for the year,
    • 41099, conf, CLR, Christiana 7-6H,
    • 41028, conf, Wesco Operating, Federal 43-20,
  • Friday, April 11, 2025: 39 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 246 for the year,
    • 41166, conf, CLR, Arley 5-18H,
    • 40699, conf, Hess, EN-Kiesel-155-94-1918H-9,

RBN Energy: different names, different uses add to mystery around natural gasoline.

It’s the most expensive NGL, accounting for more than 25% of the value of a weighted average barrel. It is the only NGL that does not require storage or transportation under pressure. And it’s the most misunderstood of the NGLs, going by different names depending on the market and geography, with a chameleon-like characteristic that allows it to be transformed into various products. And to further complicate matters, other petroleum liquids are similar to natural gasoline, but not identical. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll delve into the mysteries of natural gasoline and explore what makes it such a crucial component of the hydrocarbon landscape. 

Like all the NGLs, U.S. natural gasoline production has increased dramatically since the onset of the Shale Revolution. As shown in Figure 1 below, before shale, natural gasoline production from gas processing plants (the only source of “real” natural gasoline) was less than 300 Mb/d. Over the past decade, volumes have tripled, now approaching 900 Mb/d. As production volumes ramped up, new markets for the product emerged, a topic we’ll revisit in a moment. But first, what is natural gasoline in the first place? What makes it natural? And is it really gasoline?

Gas Plant Production of Natural Gasoline

Figure 1: Gas Plant Production of Natural Gasoline. Source: EIA

The name — natural gasoline — comes from its source and its qualities. It is “natural” because it comes from natural gas, not a refinery. And it is “gasoline” because the product is similar to very low-quality motor gasoline. It has an API gravity of around 80 degrees, making it very light with low density. (For more on API gravity, see Don’t Let Your Crude Oils Grow Up To Be Condensates). Natural gasoline is the heaviest product in the mixed NGL stream produced at a natural gas processing plant and is the heaviest cut from an NGL fractionator. Chemically, it is composed mostly of pentanes, a compound with five carbon atoms (C5). The stream also includes smaller amounts of heavier molecules including hexanes, heptanes and higher (C6, C7, C8). The molecules are nearly all paraffinic, meaning they have as many hydrogen molecules as possible (also known as saturated hydrocarbons).