Locator: 46703B.
Updates
August 21, 2024: deal closed. List of wells changing hands at this link.
Original Post
84,000 net acres.
This is a big deal for both the Bakken and Silver Hill Energy.
No price for the deal provided but one can quickly get to $1 billion on the back-of-an-envelope.
Locator: 46702BOEING.
I don't know if the NY Times will keep this behind a paywall or not. We subscribe to the NYT so we have access.
The headline:
The lede:
Less than four weeks after a hole blew open on a Boeing 737 Max 9 jet during a flight, company executives face a thorny question: Should they emphasize safety or financial performance?I saw the CNBC interview with the CEO of Boeing this morning -- I think he was practicing what he planned to say during the earnings call tomorrow. But this should be a no-brainer -- the answer to the question that Sydney Ember asked.
The issue is looming as Boeing prepares to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday amid its most significant safety crisis in years. With the Jan. 5 incident on a Max 9 flight still under investigation, executives are grappling with how much to discuss quality control while also reassuring shareholders that the company is protecting their investment, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
The National Transportation Safety Board is expected in the coming days to release a preliminary report on the incident, which occurred on an Alaska Airlines flight. The report could shed more light on how a panel blew off the Max 9 and will almost certainly ramp up scrutiny of Boeing by lawmakers, airlines and safety groups.
Dave Calhoun, Boeing’s chief executive, is expected to speak about safety during the company’s call with investors on Wednesday morning after the release of its earnings report, one of the people said. But it is not clear what balance he and other executives will strike in their comments as they try to contain the fallout from the Max 9 incident.
The subject has taken on new significance after news accounts, including a report in The New York Times, that Boeing workers opened and then reinstalled the panel, known as a door plug. The plug tore away from the Alaska plane shortly after takeoff from Portland, Ore. That revelation suggests that the incident — which terrified passengers and forced the pilots to make an emergency landing — may have been caused by lapses at a Boeing factory in Renton, Wash.
Some aviation experts and executives have long said Boeing’s safety problems and its financial performance are intertwined. The company, these people say, has for many years put too much emphasis on increasing profits and enriching shareholders with dividends and share buybacks, and not enough on investing in engineering and safety
Dave Calhoun has already provided guidance for the next quarter and says he won't "pull it" or change it.
He made that very, very clear in the CNBC interview.
He needs to devote the entire earnings call to safety. In a situation like this, there's no reason for any mention of dollars and cents, or dollars or cents. It's all about safety.
And anyway, Boeing has lost 50% of its value in the last five years -- Boeing's shares reached their all-time high of $420 (or thereabouts) in very early 2019; today it's worth $210.
Everyone will be watching (and listening) tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if Calhoun will be able to stay on message.
By the way, Jim Cramer hit the bull's-eye when he interviewed Calhoun this morning. Calhoun couldn't cross that bridge. Sad.
Locator: 46701INV.
We'll see how long traders and investors can resist low prices -- sort of like Filene's basement.
Just a reminder: UPS raised it dividend. That speaks volumes even though the increase was negligible. It's still an increase.
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My Favorite Chart(s)
Locator: 46700CALIFORNIA.
Tag: Phillips 66 California Rodeo renewable fuels
This will be fascinating -- Governor Newsom already has the most expensive gasoline in the country. I doubt the state needs more renewable energy ... but gasoline? That's another story.
From twitter -
I can't find the Argus Media story ... the twitter link to the Argus Media story doesn't work / broken / or it was pulled.
Up until recently / the last we heard, a California judge had stopped this conversion.
So, that's all I know.
I'll keep looking; maybe a reader knows more.
Locator: 46699NG.
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Drawer? The Cabinet -- LOL
This is simply incredible.
And then this, link here.
Locator: 46698EVS.
Hybrids: fake EVs. But that will be the compromise.
Locator: 46697RETAIL.
Earlier I wrote:
Now, it appears Amazon and Walmart have staked out retail.
What's driving this now?
Two things:
North Texas? Fastest growing region in the US. Legal. High achievers. Sports-oriented. Music. Tech.
South Texas? The southern surge, y'all. No papers. Landscapers. Big families. Catholic.
From social media, a comment regarding the CQ / NY Times story above:
Locator: 46695DRILLING.
In a release sent to Rigzone recently, Rystad Energy revealed that it has identified 36 potential “high impact” wells to be drilled or spud this year, which the company said is the highest annual total since it started tracking the market in 2015.
“This would be a sizeable jump from the 27 high impact wells drilled last year, and operators will hope for a better success rate,” Rystad noted in the release, which pointed out that eight of the 27 high impact wells drilled last year resulted in “commercially movable volumes”.
The high impact wells in 2023 discovered volumes of one billion barrels of oil equivalent, Rystad highlighted in the release, noting that this was a “sharp decline from the 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent found in 2022”.
“To make matters worse, 2023 was an expensive year, with drilling costs rising due to a significantly tighter rig market than in prior years, worsening the blow of a low success rate,” Rystad said in the release.
Of the 36 identified wells for 2024, 13 are in Africa, 10 are in Latin America, six are in Asia, and the Middle East, Europe, and North America each contain two, while Oceania contains one, Rystad outlined in the release. Fourteen of these wells will be drilled in frontier and emerging basins, with three opening up new plays entirely, Rystad noted.
Ya think SLB might be involved? SLB is the NVDA in the oil patch.
Reminder: Saudi Arabia to cut back on drilling.
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People Who Know, Know
This is simply incredible.
And then this, link here.
Locator: 46695ECON.
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Supply Chain
US: supply chain no longer an issue.
Europe: huge supply chain issue.
The gap between US and EU to widen.
Locator: 46694B.
DFW: link here.
By the end of the decade, DFW will be the world's largest airport by passenger volume. American Airlines hub says it all.
Building the sixth terminal, and upgrading Terminal C -- is almost the same as two more terminals. It truly is amazing. And folks living near the airport are on the grid as the airport which means they have little risk of an outage.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $75.85. US oil market telling us that the Fed will start to cut rates too late, pushing the US into a recession.
Five new permits, #40490 - #30394, inclusive:
Eight permits canceled:
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 22027 | 22062 | 60586 | 14406 | 14087 | 226 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 30 | 25250 | 25675 | 97908 | 19447 | 19021 | 276 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 8 | 8593 | 8030 | 33989 | 5479 | 5308 | 99 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 20040 | 20076 | 61179 | 11452 | 11202 | 177 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 26 | 23652 | 23523 | 61647 | 13898 | 13603 | 191 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 18469 | 18484 | 56907 | 10228 | 10005 | 158 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 17 | 18488 | 18387 | 51050 | 12412 | 12145 | 173 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 24 | 22169 | 22140 | 71245 | 13500 | 13203 | 210 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 12 | 13630 | 13556 | 50433 | 8220 | 8046 | 113 |
Well of interest:
Locator: 46693B.
Just 'cause everyone has an opinion, mine, before the announcement:
After the announcement, unchanged, remains at 5.25 -- 5.50%:
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Crazy Traders / Analysts
The Fed "adjusts" rates, generally, one quarter [twenty-five basis points] every two or three months once the Fed starts moving one direction of the other.
Q: Why does the Fed need to cut rates?
A: so if the Fed cuts the rate from 5.5% to 5.25%, that will prevent a recession?
Crickets.
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Other Stuff
Inflation watch: people that know, know. In case you missed it. It's $8.49 at Albertson's / Tom Thumb in same neighborhood.
Weekly EIA petroleum report:
I used no gasoline today. I made two grocery trips -- on bike. One to Walmart and one to Dollar Tree.
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We're On Pool Time
Locator: 46692B.
Personal investing:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.Market: four big stories today --
Just noting: imagine if the x-axis was expanded by 10-point increments.
Hess: earnings reported yesterday. Historically this is the quarter Hess announces an increase in the dividend.
Saudi: pausing on production increase.
Red Sea: even Russia avoiding the Red Sea
Hezbollah: 100% of Americans killed in most recent attack were all African-American; one-third female; Hezbollah says it will suspends attacks on Americans; Biden says he's made decision on response. SecDef back at work; has something to prove? Get out the popcorn. [Later: it sounds like Biden's response will not be a military response that will satisfy many on Capitol Hill: instead he's sending SecState back to the Mideast who says the Mideast is as tense as ever. This makes it unlikely the US will make a demonstrative strike and this event -- the loss of three African-American soldiers -- will be over. ]
Has it come down to this:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $77.02.
Friday, February 2, 2024: 1 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 60 for the year
None.
Thursday, February 1, 2024: 1 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 60 for the year
39537, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-8,
RBN Energy: is the G-7's price cap on Russian crude oil exports having its intended effect?
When the Group of Seven (G-7) countries placed a $60/bbl cap on the price of Russian crude oil in December 2022 — one of many responses to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine — there were two primary goals. The first was to keep Russian barrels flowing to the market to help keep global prices in check, and the second was to slash the profitability of Russian oil exports and thereby reduce its ability to wage war against Ukraine. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how effective the sanctions have been and how Russia has tried to work around the price cap.
As we discussed last winter, the U.S. was among the first to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with sanctions, announcing just days after the war began that it would prohibit imports of Russian oil and certain refined products (along with LNG and coal) and ban U.S. investment in Russia’s energy sector. Similar measures were soon adopted by Australia, Canada, Japan and the U.K., and Russian banks were banned from the SWIFT system, which enables financial transactions and plays a crucial role in the global oil trade. In addition, integrated oil companies such as BP, Equinor and Shell announced their intention to exit upstream oil and gas projects in Russia. The U.S. and the U.K. also rolled out foreign investment restrictions on several Russian companies and key figures in Russia’s energy industry were targeted for individual sanctions.
On the oil side, the European Union’s (EU) partial embargo against Russian imports went into effect on December 5, 2022. It prohibits the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne Russian crude unless it is purchased at or below a price cap established by the EU and the G-7 members — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. The price cap was set at $60/bbl, a target intended to be high enough to incentivize Russian production but low enough to hurt financially.
Locator: 46691NFL.
Tag: TV watched Nielsen rankings ratings television streaming
Last year’s rankings (2023).
Updates
January 31, 2024: Average viewing. AFC championship, Chiefs vs Ravens hits viewing record for AFC championship game, at 55.47 million viewers, link here. NFC, 56.32 million, link here. Also a record. NFC peaked at 59 million late in the game..
January 23, 2024: Chiefs / Bills divisional -- 40 million.
January 17, 2024: The Hollywood Reporter, Peacock's NFL Playoff games.
Link here. Dolphins vs Chiefs. Peacock says 23 million; writer says 16 million using same "apples vs apples."Locator: 46690GRAMMARLY.
Headline not written by a computer; written by a Gen Z journalist.
Locator: 46689B.
Wind: wow, look at these Germany numbers. I must be missing something. Link here.
MPC: I figured this was the reason, but I did not know for sure. Great to see this confirmed. Link here.
Ohio-based oil refiner Marathon Petroleum (MPC) saw its Q4 profits exceed analyst expectations, the company reported on Tuesday—thanks in part to OPEC's production cuts.
The U.S. refiner reported a net income of $3.84 per share—or $1.5 billion—for the last quarter of 2023, while analysts estimated a figure far lower, at just $2.20 per share. This overachievement came even as global refining capacity increased, thanks to production cuts by OPEC+ combined with healthy demand, which helped to offset struggling fuel prices.
Marathon's crude oil capacity utilization came in at 91%, for a total throughput of 2.9 million bpd for Q4, while net income attributable to company settled at $1.45 billion. This compares with $3.32 billion in Q4 2022.
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Back To The Bakken
WTI: $77.82.
Active rigs: 39.
Three new permits, #40487 - #40489, inclusive:
Five permits renewed:
Three permits canceled:
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 7 | 9479 | 9438 | 13168 | 8180 | 7289 | 862 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 17 | 25821 | 25710 | 38170 | 17688 | 15786 | 1841 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 26 | 45670 | 45474 | 93852 | 34458 | 30732 | 3607 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 25941 | 26011 | 78823 | 16658 | 16289 | 261 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 29 | 35003 | 35088 | 129764 | 20851 | 20409 | 286 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 4 | 4214 | 3938 | 25731 | 2054 | 1992 | 36 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 36673 | 36727 | 69486 | 21662 | 21187 | 336 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 25 | 41358 | 41133 | 81899 | 23020 | 22537 | 313 |
Wells of interest:
Locator: 46688INV.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market
Notable:
WMT: well, this is cool! Link here. Ticker today, $165. The question is whether WMT will increase its dividend; this is the one-year anniversary for the usual dividend increase.
After Close
Major indices:
Microsoft earnings.
Starbucks:
SWKS:
GOOG:
Earlier, Before The Close
Market: unchanged. Goldilocks. No "hard landing," no "soft landing." Rather, a "tough and go."
SLB: implodes. Bad news out of Saudi Arabia.
WTI: folks will probably disagree but there's a sense that WTI is seeing higher lows, and higher lows. WTI is up nicely today, but probably won't hit $78,
MSFT: Wall Street darling right now; stole the crown from Apple. This should not be news.
Consumer sentiment, link here:
Major indices: Dow, S&P
500 both turn positive midday after earnings start to come out; NASDAQ
off 60 points but that's almost all due to AAPL. Rest of NASDAQ doing
well. For confirmation, check out the chips.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market
GM, absolutely predictable:
EVs: link here.
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My Favorite Chart(s)
Locator: 46692LEGO.
Identical product, #71040. New last year; hard to find; often on back order.
This is exactly what the supply chain is all about.
And some folks argue this is inflation. It's not. It's the supply chain.
Same, identical product.
How bad can it get? Over at eBay:
Plus another $25 for shipping.
Shipping at Amazon and Lego, both free shipping. Ordering direct also gets you a free, second gift, retail at $25. Plus points for VIP member.
Locator: 46691AMAZON.
This has come up often on CNBC from multiple sources. "Televised" sports is moving to "streaming" sports. Big, big, big deal.
Amazon, Thursday night football.
Apple, major league soccer.
MLB?
Local news? Streaming? That is the next big nut to crack.
The only "thing" for which I use local networks? Local news. And why? Mostly the weather.
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A Slice of Lynch
Locator: 46690AAPL.
I saw her interview live on CNBC. She raved about the Vision Pro, and she and Carl Q both agreed watching a movie was absolutely amazing.
My hunch: spatial computing will be a huge success by all measures than the EV.
Locator: 46689B.
The well:
The wells
