Locator: 45535B.
Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Ramblings -- September 5, 2023
Locator: 45533B.
I'm sitting here watching a documentary on "The Ventures," having just completed a five-day round trip to Philadelphia and return to north Texas. Don Wilson of "The Ventures" died 2022. This is 2023. Who knew?
One of the best music documentaries ever. Cheap production. Great story. Highly recommend.
What a great country.
I wonder how many folks -- on a road trip, no air travel -- can say they visited Gettysburg on a Friday afternoon and Shiloh on the following Monday afternoon.
Back to "The Ventures."
It's a documentary on Amazon Prime Video.
Incredible.
I have a "love-hate" relationship with CNBC. Tonight (September 6, 2023), Jim Cramer had a monologue on the Fed and JPow. Jim Cramer, again, got it exactly right.
Our next five-day road trip? Chicago. First day to St Louis. Overnight. Then drive into Chicago on Friday to visit the art museum(s). Back to Kankaee overnight. Back into Chicago for Saturday and Saturday. Depart Chicago area sometime late Saturday / early Sunday to return to north Texas.
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A Highlight Near Shiloh
After Shiloh, we wanted dinner at Chick-Fil-A. Amazing. There's a Chick-Fil-A in Corinth. On top of everything else, we loved the southern accent. Seriously.
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Beer
A reader sent me a note with regard to beer. Lots of mention of lite beers. Can't stand them (lite beers). I prefer crafts beers, and I prefer IPA beers. Tonight, enjoying an India pale ale (IPA), northeast Texas, "Hop and Sting," brewed -- can you believe this -- in Grapevine, TX. I've visited the brewery.
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Investors
Short term? Apple (AAPL) could be very, very volatile.
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Thoughts On Shiloh, Gettysburg
Gettysburg: big disappointment. It appears the Union not particularly interested.
Shiloh: incredible. Confederate moms, daughters, sisters, wives understood. Sad day for the Union's legacy. Grant could have done better.
Politics: US politics during this entire period -- 1850 - 1965, atrocious.
Destinations: both Gettysburg and Shiloh are destinations. Both require huge expense -- time and money -- to visit.
- the two-hour drive from the main road to Gettysburg: lots of zigs and zags through residential settings
- the two-hour drive from the main road to Shiloh: straight, relaxing, serene
Gettysburg: all about the bookstore
Shiloh: all about the story
Corinth, MS, hospitality: awesome.
Gettysburg: no plans to visit again
Shiloh: would visit again, if opportunity presented; perhaps with Laura's twins in 2033
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Barnes Foundation
Perhaps #1 fine arts "museum" May and I have visited.
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Dinner: Does It Get Any Better?
Beer, mussels, and an artichoke.
Tech Update -- September 5, 2023
Locator: 45530AAPL.
Smackdown:
- CNBC: "AI" -- a pivotal week.
- Kyndryl: it's not AI -- it's generative AI. Big difference.
AAPL (Apple): buys Swedish classical music label. Link here.
AAPL (Apple):
- Link here. And, here. Computerworld.
INTC (Intel): this will get a bit of press, but in the big scheme of things, it's a non-story. Link here.
QCOM, AWS, INTC, NVDA: link here.
Enbridge -- To Buy Three Utility Companies -- September 5, 2023
Locator: 45529B.
ENBRIDGE: to buy three utility companies. Will become largest natural gas "company" in North America. Details later. Breaking. Deal: $14 billion. Stock down 5%.
- PR here.
- PR sumary:
- Enbridge has entered into definitive agreements with Dominion Energy, Inc. to acquire The East Ohio Gas Company ("EOG"), Questar Gas Company ("Questar Gas"), and its related Wexpro companies ("Wexpro" and collectively with Questar Gas, "Questar"), and Public Service Company of North Carolina, Incorporated ("PSNC") (collectively the "Gas utilities") for an aggregate purchase price of US$14.0 billion (CDN$19 billion1), comprised of US$9.4 billion of cash consideration and US$4.6 billion of assumed debt (the "Acquisitions").
- Creates North America's largest natural gas utility platform delivering ~9.3 bcf/d to ~7 million customers across multiple regulatory jurisdictions.
- Historically attractive acquisition multiples, based on 2024 estimate of ~1.3x Enterprise Value-to-Rate Base and 2023 estimate of ~16.5x Price-to-Earnings.
- Compounded annual growth rate of approximately 8% on the consolidated rate base is expected to deliver long-term value for Enbridge shareholders.
- Expected to be accretive to distributable cash flow per share ("DCFPS") and adjusted earnings per share ("EPS") in the first full year of ownership, increasing over time driven by the addition of approximately CDN$1.7 billion of annual, low-risk, quick-cycle rate base investments to Enbridge's secured growth backlog.
- Financial guidance in 2023, and near-term and medium-term outlook is maintained; long-term dividend growth profile is strengthened.
- High-quality, utility cash flows from the Gas utilities further reduces Enbridge's already industry leading business risk and balances Enbridge's earnings mix to approximately 50% Natural Gas and Renewables and 50% Liquids upon closing, expected in 2024.
- Funding plan preserves financial flexibility as Enbridge expects to maintain leverage within its target range of 4.5x to 5.0x Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA.
- Enbridge is looking forward to welcoming the Gas utilities' employees to the Enbridge family and expects to maintain strong relationships with existing local unions and communities.
Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Locator: 45528B.
Active rigs: 33
WTI: $86.69.
Four new permits -- #40179 - #40182, inclusive:
- Operators: Hunt (3); Whiting
- Fields: Foreman Butte (McKenzie); Clear Water (Mountrail)
- Comments:
- Whiting has a permit for a Ranger Fed well, SESW 16-150-103;
- to be sited 384 FSL and 2517 FWL;
- Hunt has permits for three Clearwater wells, NWNE 23-157-90;
- to be sited 300 FNL and betweeen 1731 FEL and 1791 FEL
One procuucing well (a DUC) reported to be completed:
- 39532, 1,556, Grayson mill, Charles 3-10-4H
Week 35: August 28, 2023 -- September 3, 2023
Locator: 45527TOPSTORY.
Top story:
- Unless stopped by the courts, Donald Trump on track to become GOP's presidential nominee -- setting up historic re-match
- US Supreme Court smacks down Obama's "wetlands" overreach; 9 - 0 saying Obama was out-of-bounds -- way out of bounds -- check definition of vernal ponds.
Top international non-energy story:
- Russian-Ukraine war continues
- Ukraine said to be slowed by Russia
- Ukraine fires Defense minister
Top international energy story:
- Saudi Arabia says it will extend current production cuts through end of year
- Russia maintains 300,000 bopd cut
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
- Active rigs drop to 32, maybe lower
Geoff Simon's quick connects:
Bakken economy:
Commentary:
ENBRIDGE -- We're Back -- DIS? Could Plummet -- September 5, 2023
Locator: 45526B.
Blog: I'm back home, but it will take several days to get caught up.
ENBRIDGE: to buy three utility companies. Will become largest natural gas "company" in North America. Details later. Breaking. Deal: $14 billion. Stock down 5%.
- PR here.
- PR sumary:
- Enbridge has entered into definitive agreements with Dominion Energy, Inc. to acquire The East Ohio Gas Company ("EOG"), Questar Gas Company ("Questar Gas"), and its related Wexpro companies ("Wexpro" and collectively with Questar Gas, "Questar"), and Public Service Company of North Carolina, Incorporated ("PSNC") (collectively the "Gas utilities") for an aggregate purchase price of US$14.0 billion (CDN$19 billion1), comprised of US$9.4 billion of cash consideration and US$4.6 billion of assumed debt (the "Acquisitions").
- Creates North America's largest natural gas utility platform delivering ~9.3 bcf/d to ~7 million customers across multiple regulatory jurisdictions.
- Historically attractive acquisition multiples, based on 2024 estimate of ~1.3x Enterprise Value-to-Rate Base and 2023 estimate of ~16.5x Price-to-Earnings.
- Compounded annual growth rate of approximately 8% on the consolidated rate base is expected to deliver long-term value for Enbridge shareholders.
- Expected to be accretive to distributable cash flow per share ("DCFPS") and adjusted earnings per share ("EPS") in the first full year of ownership, increasing over time driven by the addition of approximately CDN$1.7 billion of annual, low-risk, quick-cycle rate base investments to Enbridge's secured growth backlog.
- Financial guidance in 2023, and near-term and medium-term outlook is maintained; long-term dividend growth profile is strengthened.
- High-quality, utility cash flows from the Gas utilities further reduces Enbridge's already industry leading business risk and balances Enbridge's earnings mix to approximately 50% Natural Gas and Renewables and 50% Liquids upon closing, expected in 2024.
- Funding plan preserves financial flexibility as Enbridge expects to maintain leverage within its target range of 4.5x to 5.0x Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA.
- Enbridge is looking forward to welcoming the Gas utilities' employees to the Enbridge family and expects to maintain strong relationships with existing local unions and communities.
Streaming: DIS could plummet.
Analysts see possible share price but by $30 -- currently at $80, this makes DIS a "30-dollar stock." Wells Fargo analyst. Streaming tracked here.
Smackdown:
- CNBC: "AI" -- a pivotal week.
- Kyndryl: it's not AI -- it's generative AI. Big difference.
WTI: $86.67. Couldn't hold above $87.
Market:
- still: the Goldilocks economy
- Dow: down almost 200 points.
- though US markets closed lower today, it appears those heavily weighted in oils probably saw an overall "green" close;
- having said that, E&Ps not reacting as much as one might expect with oil news today
- suggests two things:
- investors see E&Ps as "utilities"; and,
- investors remain recession obsessed: continue to see soft landing (30%) vs recession (70%)
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $86.67. Couldn't hold above $87.
New permits: pending
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Tuesday, September 5, 2023 — WTI Breaks $87 Going Up
Locator: 45525OIL.
At $87.09 this morning.
Saudi will extend production cut through end of the year 2023.
Russia will maintain its 300,000 bopd cut.
Biden’s team has a “no new drilling” mentality.
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