Sinclair With Three New Permits -- March 25, 2020

DAPL in limbo: federal judge orders full environmental impact study / review of the Dakota Access Pipeline; significant win for the Standing Rock Reservation say some; unclear whether DAPL can continue to operate during the review. Well, this is one way to cap production in the Bakken. CBR still on track (pun intended).

***************************************

Daily Activity Report

Active rigs:

$24.49	3/25/2020	03/25/2019	03/25/2018	03/25/2017	03/25/2016
Active Rigs	50	68	60	49	32

Three new permits, #37471 - #37473, inclusive --

• Operator: Sinclair
• Field: Lone Butte (McKenzie) (see below)
• Comments: 
• Sinclair has permits for a 3-well Saetz Federal pad in NWSE 36-147-98, Lone Butte oil field

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 35438, SI/A, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-6, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 49K over 49 days; fracked 11/12/19 - 11/20/19; 7.5 million gallons of water; 87.83% water by mass; 0.08462 friction reducer; one of five wells on a 5-well pad; the parent well about a half-mile to the west:
• 21931, 427, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-1, Dollar Joe, t6/12; cum 146K 1/20; was off line 2.5 months; production went from 600 bbls/month to 1,500 bbls/month;

******************************

Lone Butte Oil Field

Sinclair has two other producing wells sited in this section, including one targeting the Duperow formation, the other targeting the Bakken. Neither well is particularly remarkable.

Lone Butte oil field is composed of 46 sections, roughly rectangular, straddling the McKenzie-Dunn county border in southeast McKenzie County. It it notably inactive. 

Gasoline Demand -- March 25, 2020

*****************************

Closing The Loop

The pulled pork recipe is outstanding. I made some comments regarding the recipe after making it. It turns out, that after a day of being refrigerated (and then being re-heated, of course) it is outstanding. I would not change the recipe at all. 

Highly, highly recommend toasting the hamburger buns.

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Cake Baking 101

The Next Big Thing

Page Four
Page Three

Page Two

Page One

Periodic updates: at this page.

This page won't be updated.

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2022

Amazon network: now that Amazon has entertainment, sports (NFL TNF), and original programming, Amazon only needs a "news" segment. Amazon Network, to round ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox. By 2025.

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2021

Fertilizer, Due to incredibly high energy prices in Europe and Russia, it looks like fertilizer production will be significantly reduced next planting season; offers a huge opportunity for domestic (US) production.  December 8, 2021.

 

Cryptocurrency: see this post.

Personal QR codes: see this post.

Car insurance: will be offered by automobile manufacturers. If this happens it spells huge problems for the likes of USAA, Progressive, etc. Link here. January 31, 2021.  

Car buying: buyers will determine modifications / specs for their cars on line; hold the purchase for a thousand-dollar depost; and, get a "personal one-of-a-kind" autonomous vehicle six months later. December 8, 2021.

*************************************

2020

Lowering the driving age: if elected officials and policy makers were serious about accelerating EV penetration they would lower the age for driver's licenses. 

When I was growing up in North Dakota, individuals as young as fourteen years of age could get their driver's license if they lived "on the farm" and needed a driver's license to drive into town for whatever reason (generally school). Fourteen years old: high school. To get a driver's license at age fourteen, it would mean that folks as young as thirteen would have their permit to learn. Certainly autonomous driving cars are much safer than thirteen-year-old kids driving conventional pickup trucks. Another example of elected officials and policy makers unable to think outside the box, and speaks volumes about their commitment to EVs. Posted September 21, 2020.

AWS: despite all the reports to the contrary, the tea leaves suggest Amazon will spin off AWS. September 20, 2020.  [Very, very, very wrong on this. -- July 20, 2021.]

US markets: trading 24/7. Could be done by independent brokers using their own holdings and those of their clients. Posted August 22, 2020. Robinhood, Schwab, others already sell equities "by the slice." That is not the NYSE selling.

• what investors want to hear next, September 1, 2020;

Amazon Logistics, link here.

Buc-ee’s: link here.

Tectonic shift in way Americans shop, work, learn.

• staggering "first-time unemployment claims" -- March 26, 2020

Wuhan Flu -- tracked here.

China

Saudi Arabia

Iraq: in a fight for its very survival. 

Western Europe

Canada

Amazon

• suggested by a reader, June 2, 2020: Amazon will buy FedEx;

AAPL

• first company to reach $1.5 trillion market cap; Microsoft also at $1.5 trillion market cap (August, 2020 -- AAPL on its way to $2 trillion; already at $1.97 trillion)
  
• on its radar scope: streaming services company; content company; 
• on its radar scope: new search engine; break ties with Google
• on its radar scope: huge wearable medical device company 
• announced: will make its own chips
• announced: may make its own graphics card

 TCM

Families: N - R

Locator: FamiliesNR 

Nanette Strommen Pad (MRO, Killdeer)

NASCAR Pad (Enerplus, South Fork)

Nashville Wells (CLR, Catwalk)

National Parks Pad (Enerplus, Eagle Nest)

Nelson Wells (Oasis, Banks)

Nelson Federal Wells (XTO, Antelope-Sanish) 

Nesheim Wells (Whiting, Sanish)

Niemitalo Wells (Whiting, Sanish)

Nikolai Federal Wells (Oasis, Banks)

ND Levang Wells (QEP, Grail)

ND Winter Wells (Enerplus, Mandaree oil field)

Nordeng Wells (Oasis, Elidah, Banks)

Norfolk Wells (CLR, North Tobacco Garden) 

North Tarentaise Federal Wells (CLR, Elm Tree)

Norway Wells (CLR, Fancy Buttes, Dimmick Lake)

Oakdale Wells (CLR, Jim Creek, along with the Ryden wells; plans to put 24 wells in an existing 5260-acre drilling unit in this area)

Obrigewitch Wells (Whiting, Bell oil field, Stark County, southwestern North Dakota)

Odell USA -- L-M-2P-O pad (MRO, Reunion Bay)

Ogden Wells (Whiting, Sanish oil field) 

Ole Wells (BR, North Fork)

Olson Wells (Oasis, Crazy Man Creek)

Olson Wells (Whiting, Dollar Joe oil field)

Omaha Woman Wells (WPX, Squaw Creek oil field)

Omlid - Ransom Wells (CLR, Elidah oil field)

Orca Federal (Slawson, Big Bend)

Ortman -- C-E-2H-O pad (MRO, Reunion Bay)

Osprey Federal (Slawson, Big Bend oil field)

Otter Woman Wells (WPX, Mandaree oil field)

Outlaw Gap Wells (BR, Sand Creek)

Outlaw Wagon Wells (BR, Sand Creek)

Owl Pad Wells (Enerplus, McGregory Buttes)

Oyloe Wells (Oasis, North Tobacco Garden)

P Bibler (Whiting, Epping oil field / Stockyard Creek oil field)

P Earl Rennerfeldt Wells (Whiting, Stockyard Creek, Epping oil field)

P Evitt / Evitt Wells (Whiting, Truax)

P Levang Wells (QEP, Grail oil field)

P Lynch Wells (Whiting, Stockyard Creek / Epping oil fields)

P Pankowski Wells (Whiting, Truax oil field) 

Pennington Wells (WPX, Big Bend)

P Peterson Wells (Epping oil field)

P Thomas Wells (multiple sections, including: 33-154-98; 10-153-98; 3-153-98; and, 14-154-98)

P Vance, Vance, Vance Federal Wells (KOG, Truax oil field;  T154N R97W)

P Wood Wells (27-154-98, other sections)

Palmer / Palmer Federal (CLR, Haystack Butte)

Pankowski / Scanlan Wells (Whiting, Truax)

Panther Wells (Zavanna, Stony Creek)

Panzer Wells (White Butte/Slawson, Stacked Dual Lateral, Antelope oil field)

Pasadena Wells (CLR, Banks oil field)

Pasternak Wells (Enerplus, Strandahl, Climax, Marmon)

Patricia Kelly Wells (WPX, Spotted Horn, Antelope)

Patriot Pad (Enerplus, Spotted Horn)

Patsy Wells (Oasis, Siverston wells, sited in 17-151-98; run south to north)

Patton Wells (BR, Bailey oil field) 

Pelton Federal (XTO, Bear Creek)

Pepper Pad (Enerplus, McGregory Buttes)

Perigrine Wells (Oasis / Chord, Todd, south side of Williston)

Periot Wells (Whiting, Dollar Joe)

Periscope Federal Wells (Slawson, Van Hook) 

Phantom Ship Wells (BR, Elidah) -- original

Phantom Ship Wells (BR, Elidah) -- updated

Pitcher's Pad (Enerplus, Heart Butte)

Pittsburgh / Uhlman Federal Wells (CLR, Banks) 

Plano FIU (CLR, Todd oil field)

Pletan Wells (CLR, Pletan-Dvirnak pad, Jim Creek oil field)

Porcupine Wells (Sinclair, Little Knife oil field)

Porcupine Federal Wells (XTO, Bear Creek oil field)

Porter Wells (Grayson Mill, Alexander oil field); also, here;

Precipitation Pad (Enerplus, Mandaree) 

Primus Wells (PetroShale, Antelope)

Privratsky Wells (different operators, different fields)

P-R-S-4W Pad (MRO, Reunion Bay) 

Pyramid Wells, updated here; (Grayson Mill / Statoil, Williston city limits)

Quale Federal (CLR, Antelope)

"Quilt Pad" (Enerplus, Mandaree) 

Rachel Wolf Wells (WPX, Squaw Creek)

Radermecher Wells (CLR, Camel Butte)

Raider Wells (BR, Twin Valley) 

Rainmaker Federal Wells (Slawson, Big Bend)

Ramirez Wells (Oasis, Dimmick Lake)

Ransom - Omlid Wells (CLR, Elidah oild field) 

Raptor Wells (WPX, Reunion Bay)

Rath Federal (CLR, Sanish, extended long laterals)

Ravin Wells (Abraxas, North Fork oil field)

Ravin Wells (CLR, Dimmick Lake oil field)

Rebel, Bandit, Snakeeyes Wells (Slawson, Big Bend/Van Hook)

Red Mike Hill Wells (CLR, West Capa)

Red, White, and Blue Wells (Kraken, Burg oil field) 

Reidle Wells (Grayson Mill, Briar Creek)

Rehak Federal Wells (CLR, Alkali Creek)

Remington Wells (BR, Blue Buttes)

Renegade Wells (BR, Sand Creek)

Rennerfeldt Wells (CLR, Brooklyn, along with Mildred wells)  

Rey Federal wells (Oasis, Camp)

Rhonda Wells (CRL, Jim Creek)

Richard Wells (Statoil, Banks, the Cheryl-Richard pad)

Rieckhoff Wells (XTO, North Tobacco Garden oil field)

Rink Wells (XTO, Garden oil field)

Rink / Kermit Wells (BR, Pershing)

River Rat Federal Wells (Slawson, Big Bend)

Riverview Wells (EOG, Antelope oil field)

Riverview Wells (EOG, Clarks Creek oil field)

Rixey Wells (Kraken, Lone Tree Lake)

Rodney / Gale (CLR, Cedar Coulee) 

Roggenbuck / Bartleson / Burr Federal (17-well pad, Whiting, Sanish)

Rolf Wells (CLR, Brooklyn oil field)

Rolfson Wells (Oasis, Siverston; record wells)

Rolfson N Wells (Oasis, Siverston)

Rolfson S Wells (Oasis, Siverston) 

Rolfsrud Wells (Ovintiv, Westberg))

Rolfstad Wells (Ovintiv, Westberg)

Rolla / Rolla State (Ovintiv, Westberg)

Rolla Federal Unit (Whiting, Twin Valley)

Rollefstad Wells (CLR, Antelope oil field, density infill test)

Ron Viall Wells (Hess, Wheelock)

Rough Federal (XTO, North Fork)

Rubia/Topaz Wells (WPX, Mandaree)

Ruby / Ruby Parshall Wells (WPX, Antelope oil field)

Ruth/Jack Wells (Equinor, East Fork) 

Ryden Wells (CLR, Jim Creek, along with the Oakdale wells; plans to put 24 wells in an existing 5260-acre drilling unit in this area)

TEMPORARY POSTINGS

The Skaar Federal, Tarpon Federal, and Flatland Federal wells.  There is no guarantee these postings will stay up "forever" and they certainly may not be updated.

The Whiting Stenseth Trust Wells In Sanish Oil Field

The well:

• 36325, SI/NC-->AL/A, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5-2H, Sanish, t--; cum 57K over 3.5 months;  cum 181K 7/21;
  
• from FracFocus: fracked 8/19/19 - 8/25/19; 4.8 million gallons of water; 88.6% water by mass;

The well:

• 36392, 1,074, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5HU, Sanish, t10/19; cum 77K 1/20; 19 stages; 4.1 million lbs; cum 182K 4/21;
  
• from FracFocus: fracked 8/19/19 - 8/25/19; 5.8 million gallons of water; 88.6% water by mass;
• see this note, posted September 25, 2021: this well has been on confidential list for two years;
  

The third well on that 3-well pad:

• 17072, 2,843, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 721K 1/20; no jump in production noted; open hole frack with 1.8 million lbs sand; cum 771K 7/21;
  

Neighboring wells:

• 20280, 175, Whiting, Strand 11-5TFH, Sanish, t11/11; cum 133K 1/20; cum 144K 7/21;
  
• 21758, 293, Whiting, Oppeboen 21-5TFH, Sanish, t5/12; cum 131K 1/20; F; cum 138K 7/21; still "F"
  
• 21759, 368, Whiting, Oppeboen 21-5H, Sanish, t3/12; cum 335K 1/20; cum 350K 7/21;
  

It's possible there was no "halo effect" due to the incredibly small fracks of the new wells.

Daily Note, Morning Edition -- March 25, 2020

Word for the day: koan.

• definition: paradoxical anecdote or riddle, used in Zen Buddhism to demonstrate the inadequacy of logical reasoning and to provoke enlightenment. 
• provide a video example: link here (when the video pops up, it might start playing immediately, but you need to click on volume)
• I could listen to this all day; very, very poetic, from a great philosopher
• count the number of times he touches his face; puts his fingers to his mouth

Phrase for the day: deep doo-doo.

• example: Saudi oil at $3/bbl; link here.
• HFI Research on Twitter: "The market has never faced a paper surplus of 10 mb/d in a month. Instead, shut-ins, displacements and refusal to sell well below cash cost break even going to be the name of the game. Let’s see how Saudis and Russians like it when contango blows out. $15 Brent = $3 for Saudi. https://t.co/8D6RSM1eYy" / Twitter

Saudi Arabia: deaths due to coronavirus double overight; from one death to two deaths. Countries / states to watch:

• China
• Italy
• US: NY, WA, CA, TX
• Saudi Arabia

Daily local supermarket review:

• Sophia and I visited two neighborhood markets today: Tom Thumb and Albertson's
• both were deserted; maybe six customers in each store
• unlike other days when a huge number of employees were stocking shelves, there was no stocking going on today; very, very concerning;
• the shelves are becoming more and more bare
• non-perishable staples were non-existent
• eggs were unavailable; milk was available
• most produce available 
• no butter; a few tubs of margarine
• memo to self: need to stay ahead of this -- order off Amazon
• we ordered flour from Amazon yesterday; at doorstep today

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 25, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil in storage increased by 1.6 million bbls week-over-week
• US crude oil in storage now at 455.4 million bbls; about 3% below the five-year-average;
• refiners operating at 87.3% of their capacity; gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.0 million bpd (my threshold of interest: 10.0 million bpd)
• distillate fuel increased last week, averaging 4.8 million bpd (my threshold of interest: 5.0 million bpd)
• US crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million bopd, down by 422K from the previous week
• over the past four weeks: imports averaged 6.3 million bopd, 7.0% less than the same four-week period last year 
• total products supplies: 21.0 million bpd; up by 1.3% from same period last year
• gas supplied over past four-week period, up by 1.2% from same period last year
• distillate fuel dropped 5.3% over the past four weeks, compared to same period last year
• jet fuel supplied was down 8.9% compared with same four-week period last year 

US crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week	Week Ending	Raw Data, millions of bels	Change
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422

Jet fuel supplied:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Week Ending	Change
Week 0	March 11, 2020	-12.80%
Week 1	March 18, 2020	-12.6%
Week 2	March 25, 2020	-8.9%

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 58	January 3, 2020	-11.5	429.9
Week 59	January 8, 2020	1.2	431.1
Week 60	January 15, 2020	-2.5	428.5
Week 61	January 23, 2020	-0.4	428.1
Week 62	January 29, 2020	3.5	431.7
Week 63	February 5, 2020	3.4	435.0
Week 64	February 12, 2020	7.5	442.5
Week 65	February 20, 2020	0.4	442.9
Week 66	February 26, 2020	0.5	443.3
Week 67	March 4, 2020	0.8	444.1
Week 68	March 11, 2020	7.7	451.8
Week 68	March 18, 2020	2.0	453.7
Week 69	March 25, 2020	1.6	455.4

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$23.87	3/25/2020	03/25/2019	03/25/2018	03/25/2017	03/25/2016
Active Rigs	50	68	60	49	32

Wells coming off the confidential list today --

Wednesday, March 25, 2020: 63 for the month; 234 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

• 36392, 1,074, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5HU, Sanish, t10/19; cum 77K 1/20; 19 stages; 4.1 million lbs; 
• 36325, SI/NC, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5-2H, Sanish, t--; cum 57K over 3.5 months; 
• 36308, drl, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole:
• 36139, 1,054, Whiting, Oppeboen 12-5-4H, Sanish, t10/19; cum 83K 1/10;
• 34602, conf, MRO, Gerhardt USA 14-21H, Reunion Bay,
• 34598, drl, MRO, Hanlon USA 11-28TFH, Reunion Bay,
• 28113, drl, Slawson, Sniper Federal 6-6-7TFH, Big Bend,

Tuesday, March 24, 2020: 56 for the month; 227 for the quarter, 227 for the year:

• 34395, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek,

RBN Energy: Gulf of Mexico crude oil productions braced for price / coronavirus storm.

In the stormiest market environment for crude oil in many years, it’s hard to find a spot where the sailing is smooth. If even-keel conditions exist anywhere in the oil-producing world today, it might be the offshore Gulf of Mexico, where producer decisions to invest in new platforms or subsea tiebacks are based on very long-term oil-price expectations and the production, once initiated, is steady. In the second half of the 2010s, Gulf producers significantly reduced the average breakeven prices needed to justify their most promising new investments — from more than $55/bbl back in 2015 to less than $35/bbl today. Given what’s happened to crude oil prices the past few days, however, it’s logical to wonder whether any of even the best prospective Gulf of Mexico projects will be sanctioned this year. Today, we discuss how cost-cutting and efficiency improvements have made the offshore Gulf a comparatively steady, growing base of U.S. crude oil production that so far has been less vulnerable than shale output to oil-price gyrations.