Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead -- MRO -- Very, Very Interesting -- December 17, 2021

I've posted many times about the incredible Bailey oil field. I'm convinced MRO has a vice-president of operations whose only job is to manage this field. My hunch: an intern, recent engineering graduate from UND.

See this post, plus another one that was started late last night and is still in progress.

*******************************
Damn The Torpedoes -- Full Speed Ahead

Active rigs: daily active rigs being reported by NDIC -- 32 -- I did not check the list for duplicates; one is a SWD well; 

$70.86	12/17/2021	12/17/2020	12/17/2019	12/17/2018	12/17/2017
Active Rigs	31	14	52	68	53

Seven new permits, #38704 - #38710, inclusive

• Operator: MRO:
• Field: Bailey (Dunn)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for a seven-well pad, on NENW 17-146-93, all of them to be sited 450 FNL and then between 2236 FWL and 1996 FWL -- that's forty feet between each well; 
• the permits: Alvin, Arelia, Sease, KB, Rixman, Comstock, and Yockim

Although we don't have scout ticket data for these new permits, based on their location it is likely they will run north and in the 1280-acre drilling unit: sections 5/8-146-93.

There are currently two parent wells in this drilling unit, #16729 to the east, and #18384 to the west.

The wells:

• 16729, 348, MRO, Vihon 44-8H, Bailey, SESE 8-146-93, 33-025-00647, t11/07; cum 393K 10/21; production jump in 2012; the well originally drilled back in 2007;
  

BAKKEN	11-2012	30	11190	11629	3793	3898	3152	570
BAKKEN	10-2012	11	2487	1678	298	364	107	204
BAKKEN	9-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	1	0	0	0	3	3	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	7	209	475	27	165	129	5
BAKKEN	11-2011	30	1203	1160	232	907	690	37
BAKKEN	10-2011	31	1264	1138	262	955	720	52
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	1246	1400	283	953	680	93

• 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, SESW 8-146-93, 33-025-00990, t5/10; cum 487K 10/21; production jump in 2014; the well originally drilled back in 2010;

BAKKEN	11-2014	30	13026	13128	6472	7391	293	5525
BAKKEN	10-2014	27	11742	11706	6005	6611	1546	3654
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	12466	12511	5669	7290	4242	1535
BAKKEN	8-2014	25	15129	14799	3964	9165	4708	2691
BAKKEN	7-2014	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	27	1029	1144	846	715	43	421
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	1304	1376	837	927	428	173
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	1304	1400	837	949	493	137
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	1395	1177	866	1001	563	103
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	1222	1181	767	853	421	133

NDSU Coming To Frisco! -- December 17, 2021

I hope you are all watching -- NDSU vs James Madison --  NDSU, 20 - James Madison, 14. No one, but no one, is wearing a mask.

Poll to the right: will NFL postpone any games? Yup, three games scheduled for this weekend have been postponed. 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: daily active rigs being reported by NDIC -- 32 -- I did not check the list for duplicates; one is a SWD well; 

$70.86	12/17/2021	12/17/2020	12/17/2019	12/17/2018	12/17/2017
Active Rigs	31	14	52	68	53

Seven new permits, #38704 - #38710, inclusive

• Operator: MRO:
• Field: Bailey (Dunn)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for a seven-well pad, on NENW 17-146-93, all of them to be sited 450 FNL and then between 2236 FWL and 1996 FWL -- that's forty feet between each well; 
• the permits: Alvin, Arelia, Sease, KB, Rixman, Comstock, and Yockim

Six permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill: five Pyramid permits and one Hawkeye permit, all in Williams County; all in NWNW 15-154-101;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38237, 1,191, CLR, Jenson 11-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, minimal production;
  
• 37408, 1,660, CLR, Rodney 14-29HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
• 37396, 1,144, CLR, Rodney 11-29H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
• 37409, 1,046, CLR, Rodney 13-29H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
• 37377, 1,152, CLR, Rodeny 6-29H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
• 37376, 1,351, CLR, Rodney 5-29H, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;

Soybean Oil Manufacturing Plant -- Spiritwood, ND -- MPC, ADM -- Close On Deal -- December 17, 2021

 Link here.

• JV: Archer-Daniels-Midland, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (the refiner)
• product: soybean oil --> renewable diesel fuel
• ADM: 75%
• MPC: 25%
• to be completed in 2023
• product to be supplied to MPC
• 600 million lbs of refined soybean oil per year--> 75 million gallons of diesel per year
• diesel: one gallon = 137,381 Btu
• North Dakota consumption: 100 trillion Btu distillate fuel oil
• 100,000,000,000,000 / 137,381 = 730 million gallons per year
• Spiritwood: about 10% of ND's annual distillate fuel consumption (?)
• disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

North Dakota Aerial Photography -- Vern Whitten -- December 17, 2021

Wow, what a Christmas treat! Enjoy.

From Vern Whitten: http://www.vernwhittenphotography.net/JUS1221/.

Mr Whitten would love to hear from and may appreciate ideas for future photographs.

Favorite pictures, and comments:

• favorite picture: rec center in Watford City, #4
• well fire, #5
• downhill biking, interesting, #8
• Amazon Fargo, #17
• Tinker Toy, Big Iron, Fargo, #20
• field art, #23

Again, say "hi" to Vern!

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

Director's Cut -- October, 2021, Data

Usual disclaimer: this is done for my benefit. I do it quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. I generally do not go back to correct errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

Crude oil production:

• October, 2021: 1,110,321 bopd
• September, 2020: 1,114,020 bopd
• a decrease of 3,699 bopd month/month
• a decrease of 0.3%

Natural gas production:

• October, 2021: 92,937,382 mcf/day
• September, 2021: 90,625,657 mcf/day
• an increase of 2,311,725 mcf/day
• an increase of 2.6%

Gas capture: 94%.

Crude price, ND light sweet (WTI):

• today: $66.25 ($71.55)
  
• October: $74.35 ($81.22)
  
• September: $64.37 ($72.38)
  

In conjunction with the Director's Cut, see the December dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

More from the Director's Cut:

Rig count:

• today: 32 (including SWD rigs)
• November: 33
• October: 29
• September: 27

Wells, permitted:

• November: 50
• October: 37
• September: 69

Wells completed:

• November (preliminary): 60
• October (revised: 41
• September (final): 34

Wells inactive:

• October: 1,881
• September: 1,696

Wells waiting on completion (DUCs):

• October: 457
• September: 503

Wells, producing:

• October: 17,163 (preliminary)
• September: 17,051

Wells off line for operational reasons tracked here.

Of The Three FracFocus Reports Checked For The Most Recent Bruin FB Belford Wells --- ?? -- December 17, 2021

Another Eagle Nest Bruin FB Belford well came off the confidential list yesterday:

Thursday, December 16, 2021: 70 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 325 for the year:

• 36303, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-13T-LL, 33-025-03776, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21; 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	26302	39502
9-2021	23231	31333
8-2021	22512	26863
7-2021	29830	31424
6-2021	23335	21520

The FB Belford wells are tracked here. They were the first wells to roll out with Bakken 4.5, pad drilling.

Frack data for #36303:

• FracFocus lists two fracks, both with same dates, 5/11/21 - 5/21/21:
• the first frack: 8.25 million gallons of waer; 83% water by mass; 10.13% sand by mass;
• the second frack: 8.8 million gallons of water; 83.1% water by mass; 10.13% sand by mass;
• I wonder if the second wasn't an update or a correction of the first.

Let's check out another Bruin FB Belford well:

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, 33-025-03775, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 122K 10/21; 122K in less than five months; well, this is certainly unusual, again, two fracks, same dates, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21:
• first frack: 8.367 million gallons of water, 83.0% water by mass; 10.224% sand by mass;
• second frack: 8.94 million gallons of water, 83.04% water by mass; 10.224% sand by mass
• although the total gallons differed between fracks, the percentages were identical out to the fifth decimal place certainly suggests updated / corrected document;

What about an older FB Belford permit?

• #22300, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-2T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01602, first production, 9/21; t--; ; cum 22K 10/21;
• again, two frack reports, again with same dates, 5/23/21 - 5/29/21
• first frack: 4.148 million gallons of water; 81.58336% water by mass; 9.89372% sand by mass;
• second frack: 4.515 million gallons of water, 81.58336% water by mass; 9.89372% sand by mass;

You now have the same data I have. 

Two of three parent wells for the FB Belford wells are "AB." The third went offline 4/19 and didn't return to production until 10/21 -- almost two years later. Of course, there is a jump in production but that may not mean anything other than being off line for two years. Having said that, in conventional wells there is always risk taking a well off line for two years, and there had been talk that there was a similar risk taking Bakken wells off line for that length of time. So far, I've not seen that risk play out in the Bakken.

A parent well:

• 18968, 875, Bruin, Fort Berthold 148-95-22D-15-1H, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01086, t9/12; cum 312K 10/21; full production , below:
  
• one frack: 9/14/12
• 2.945 million gallons of water; 89.27% water by mass; ceramic, 9.5% by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	4399	4388	25208	3914	2785	392
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	63	63	4530	110	89	9
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	15	686	1106	335	1715	797	103
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1808	1737	550	3512	1586	162
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	1707	1597	663	2417	1976	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	1710	1806	854	3221	2723	10
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	2024	1919	761	3153	2639	43
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	1783	1925	897	1238	780	42
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	1608	1795	672	2145	1668	5
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	1449	1293	1042	1960	1442	57
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1452	1842	1288	1892	1500	157
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	1554	1634	660	2240	1815	184
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	2117	1950	1044	3012	2486	128
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	1851	1651	1030	2451	1860	78
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2069	3030	988	2713	1545	731
BAKKEN	3-2018	30	1748	1307	1040	2009	965	714
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	1718	1665	785	2059	1661	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	1824	1909	980	2339	1883	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	2221	1941	869	3355	2847	2
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	2489	2204	1061	3354	2961	183
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	2800	3043	982	3650	2902	531
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	2493	2036	1050	2762	1475	1077
BAKKEN	8-2017	30	2520	2880	911	2742	1879	653
BAKKEN	7-2017	30	2502	2270	913	2539	1586	743
BAKKEN	6-2017	28	2289	2542	900	2271	1670	405
BAKKEN	5-2017	20	1370	920	1107	1102	860	102
BAKKEN	4-2017	21	1308	1616	570	1293	1094	52
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	2085	1921	773	1812	1585	10
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	2007	2547	755	1558	1325	37
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	1933	1497	758	1702	1266	219
BAKKEN	12-2016	26	1740	1586	1280	1112	581	349
BAKKEN	11-2016	4	137	474	96	218	177	13
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	1967	2399	893	1824	1504	103
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	2146	1966	803	2046	1829	7
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	2368	2018	1011	2351	2134	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	2342	2442	958	2423	2205	1
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	2253	2330	853	2301	2087	4
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	2408	2220	1217	1658	1441	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	29	2015	1913	1747	1818	1599	16
BAKKEN	3-2016	17	1515	1877	639	1788	1669	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	2966	2662	1250	3170	2900	67
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	3137	3292	1477	3072	2833	22
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	3309	3309	1442	3417	3144	56
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	3347	3589	1607	4037	3811	16
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	3815	3610	2238	3800	3527	56
BAKKEN	9-2015	3	234	0	507	150	99	30
BAKKEN	8-2015	18	2093	2395	934	2394	2127	141
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	3968	3786	2315	4352	4089	46
BAKKEN	6-2015	29	3886	3700	2012	4196	3941	52
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	4227	4281	1778	4680	4370	93
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	4369	4369	1744	4773	4370	193
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	4671	5458	2300	5033	4335	488
BAKKEN	2-2015	27	4293	3844	2000	4438	4135	114
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	5116	4809	2420	5556	5311	28
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	4865	4865	2433	4783	4459	107
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	5097	5324	2667	4911	4657	44
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	5365	5070	3094	5626	5305	104
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	5528	5977	3496	5514	4967	337
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	5979	6159	4492	5789	4913	659
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	6256	6016	4736	5546	3587	1742
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	4060	3813	4693	3042	1376	1456
BAKKEN	5-2014	24	7511	7738	7310	7940	4615	3157
BAKKEN	4-2014	11	4467	3921	5426	4301	2898	1326
BAKKEN	3-2014	2	129	321	52	31	0	17
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	4445	4440	1817	2115	0	1919
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	4804	4892	1887	4420	0	4203
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	5115	5035	2092	5533	0	5316
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	4442	4417	1740	9834	0	9624
BAKKEN	10-2013	30	5863	5740	2635	16063	0	15853
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	6664	6780	2783	13946	0	13736
BAKKEN	8-2013	28	7094	7282	2772	6806	0	6610
BAKKEN	7-2013	19	3138	2760	1413	2253	0	2120
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	6039	6104	2405	3630	0	3420
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	6425	6646	2733	5532	0	5315
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	6905	6953	3063	4485	0	4275
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	8289	8390	3462	7776	0	7559
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	8152	8107	3256	7074	0	6878
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	10238	10122	3812	9095	0	8878
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	12306	12383	4876	12651	0	12434
BAKKEN	11-2012	30	13621	13671	6051	10142	0	9932
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	19552	19804	14314	18954	0	18744
BAKKEN	9-2012	5	4065	3170	8584	7400	0	7365

FOX, TNF, RIVN, EF-5, DMLRY, HUMMER, And EIEIO -- December 17, 2021

NFL, FOX and TNF: last night's incredibly exciting game was the last game that Fox will televise on Thursday night. 

Next Thursday, NFL Network is the only network where TNF will stream. Amazon has rights to TNF starting in CY2022 after Fox Sports relinquished that "holding" a few years early, selling to Amazon. Amazon Prime Video will stream TNF (as it has been doing this entire season) and TNF will also be available on Hulu. Link here. Last night's game which ended in an overtime win for the Chiefs, which I guess, remains a politically-correct name.

Daimler truck division: earlier I wrote that it appeared that the new ticker symbol is assigned and one is able to trade shares in the new truck division. That is apparently inaccurate. If that is accurate (that my original note was inaccurate), shares in the new Daimler truck division are not yet available.

Hobby Lobby: raising full-time minimum pay to $18 / hour.

GM: Hummer deliveries "begin." I haven't seen the photo op yet of the first customer taking delivery. GM down 5 percent in early trading today, December 17, 2021. For the past month, GM is down 14%; down $875/share. And no dividend while you are waiting. Buying opportunity today?

Hummer: cost? If you have to ask, you can't afford one. From CNBC:

• $113,000 for the special "Edition 1" version; about 1,200 such vehicles;
• lower-priced versions
• Ultium platform, motors and batteries, all developed in-house by GM
• GM: to invest about $30 billion in production and development of EV through 2025
• back-of-the-envelope:
• average selling price of an EV: $75,000
• $35 billion / $75,000 = 400,000 vehicles.

Rivian: IBD. Most striking: analysts anticipated a loss of a dollar per share; in fact, $12/share. Orders placed today won't be filled until 2023 due to production constraints. Still nothing about margins.

Global warming: US tornado damage 1950 to 2021. Link here. 1950? That's about the year I was born. My mom grew up in tornado alley. I think the "thing" that frightened her the most was a tornado.

Greed: Thomas Sowell -- I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned, but not greed to want to take somebody else's money. Link here.

Covid-19: biggest mistake -- attributing current hospitalizations to the new variant, Omicron, when, in fact, it's still the Delta virus causing the current hospitalization surge. Omicron is clearly milder.