The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/10/22

Monday, October 10, 2022

Ticker: DEN -- October 10, 2022

News: link here:

Predicted on the blog back in August, 2022. This has been another open-book test.

What Fresh Hell Is This? On A Holiday Monday, Cool, Beautiful Day And Electricity Prices Surge In New England -- October 10, 2022

Link here.

This is incredible.

An Ovintiv Rolla Well Maintains Nice Production Through First Nine Months; 375K Bbls Crude Oil In Ten Months -- October 10, 2022

The well

38082, conf-->drl/drl, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 15K over first eight days; cum 375K 8/22;

Full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	22185	22191	15109	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	23378	23537	17010	99483	96797	2686
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	28022	27797	18677	115692	114274	1418
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	32889	33153	18564	109173	108209	964
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	32096	32137	16652	86840	86699	141
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	49935	49764	23632	123371	122822	549
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	51907	52101	23775	113811	113811	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	58746	58668	27899	127661	127661	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	61042	61012	28899	119074	118877	197
BAKKEN	11-2021	8	14645	14168	4898	27237	27120	117

The NDIC Map -- Really Cool -- October 10, 2022

Link to the map here.

Use the "+/-" icons to zoom in / zoom out.

For blogging, there some features of the previous map app I liked better but, wow, this new map app is incredible.

One example: measuring distance.

There are five "icons/emojis" below the search box.

The middle one, a ruler, is for measuring distance.

Example:

First, using the "+/1" emojis/icons, zoom in to area of interest.

Then, click on the "ruler."

When the next dialogue box opens up, click on the second icon/emoji from the left, another ruler, with left/right arrows.

The default: miles. But you can measure distance in a number of units, including feet.

You have to leave that dialogue box open when using it / measuring distance.

Click on "origin."

A green dot will appear.

Now move mouse to next spot, and click. Voila. Distance.

Now, and this is the great part, Move the mouse to the next spot and click and get the updated distance.

Lots of fun. Couldn't due it with the previous mapping app.

If you close the map app by clicking on the "x" the distance app will cease functioning.

To clear all that from the map, open the distance app again, and click on "clear."

CLR Now Reporting The Harrisburg Wells In Indian Hill, South Of Williston, South Of The River -- October 10, 2022

The CLR Harrisburg wells are tracked here.

The well:

37499, loc/A, CLR, Harrisburg 6-34H, Indian Hill, t--; cum 144K 8/22;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	26	16352	16662	20848	15561	13839	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	13426	13129	22053	13209	11313	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	11996	11941	19330	10724	8548	480
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	12043	12357	21364	7724	7246	100
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	7949	7745	15938	4566	4269	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	23172	23253	31484	17170	16761	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	12	7642	7433	13164	6284	6127	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	13	68	137	22	1391	1383	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	27	17153	17263	24752	14298	14025	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	31031	31503	45738	25859	25461	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	6	3311	2510	6220	2594	2457	73

Halo Effect In Heart Butte -- October 10, 2022

See this note.

Now, the halo effect on the first well (?) on this pad:

20215, 2,140, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27B, Heart Butte, t2/12; cum 488K 8/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	1666	1666	2165	680	451	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1968	1966	2296	699	470	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	1999	1996	1467	752	539	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	2446	2439	1257	993	762	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	2497	2504	2007	817	606	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	2882	2887	1731	909	678	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	2900	2904	1752	892	689	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	3844	3843	2357	892	661	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	4220	4220	2928	712	481	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	4586	4583	3738	1046	822	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	3739	3729	5822	1781	1550	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	3377	3360	4853	1626	1429	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	59	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	9	432	436	455	685	586	99
BAKKEN	3-2021	28	1494	1507	1259	2194	2194	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1626	1600	1382	2573	2549	24
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	1610	1610	247	1775	1608	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	27	1151	1193	212	1351	1207	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	1629	1601	245	1567	1361	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	1707	1740	193	1626	1381	0

Production Update On A Huge Rimrock Well In Heart Butte -- October 10, 2022

The well:

36928, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, HUGE WELL, 74K 8/21; first production, 7/21; t--; cum 78K 8/21; cum 383K 8/22;

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	11148	11160	8010	12646	12418	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	14078	14094	9200	14556	14326	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	16923	16886	10952	16817	16593	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	19249	19177	13223	14629	14398	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	25	16465	16553	12964	14424	14254	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	24078	24119	17288	21050	20819	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	24127	24133	16166	17812	17609	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	29028	29030	22587	20500	17150	3119
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	33613	33611	25877	21443	21213	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	35447	35460	27901	22918	22695	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	30	34451	34425	30087	21671	20308	1144
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	45070	45180	34325	28701	26646	1831
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	73925	74347	54617	47272	41869	5172
BAKKEN	7-2021	2	4765	4011	3926	2976	1513	1463

EOG -- Powder River Basin -- October 10, 2022

Link here.

Could This Also Affect California's Ban On ICE Vehicles? October 10, 2022

Link here.

Fuel Crisis In France -- October 10, 2022

Fuel crisis in France, link here.

*********
Let's Not Panic

Link here.

I guess you can say that when you travel by limousine, helicopter, and fixed-wing aircraft. And your salary is guaranteed.

The Apple Page -- October 10, 2022

From The WSJ:

Sales, 3Q22 (4th quarter for Apple), link here. Incredible.

Apple free cash flow, link here: imagine -- if you think XOM is going to break records with FCF, imagine Apple doubling that.

***********************
The Berries Went First

Companies Are Using The "Inflation" Story .... I'm Going Biking -- October 10, 2022

Walmart, generic: $1.98 for an 18-oz bottle.

PB and Jellys restaurant in Brooklyn:

Area codes?

Lake Mead -- Myths And Reality -- Las Vegas Will Be Fine -- October 10, 2022

Link here.

Lake Mead.

*********************************
Enjoying Pumpkin Pie

US Diesel Inventories -- October 10, 2022

Link here.

Again, it seems the talk is worse than the data. But ... it's the big story this year ...

**************************
Inventories

After a decade of following this stuff, I'm losing interest in tracking inventories. Actually, that's not correct. I continue to have interest in inventories as data points. However, inventory data without context is not helpful. And, worse, perhaps inventory of anything is the wrong metric. Yes, there is a much, much better metric, which I've talked about on numerous occasions.

Here's US gasoline inventory:

Hypothetical example:

September, 2021: days of supply -- 14 days

anticipated problems? Three hurricanes to knock out Gulf refiners

September, 2022: days of supply -- 28 days

anticipated problems? None.

NIP Day -- National Indigenous People's Day

How about them Cowboys:

they just beat the world champions; Cowboys? Back-up quarterback.

and, it was not even close: 22 - 10, with any number of great plays
Cooper Rush: #2 on the Sports Center top ten newsreel!

most interesting: quarterback not credited with win? Who gets the credit for the win? Everyone else:

the team -- it was a "team effort"
defensive unit
the head coach
the team's owner
the fans
the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders
the guy in section 834 selling hot dogs

Stephen A:

after the Cowboys' win, another bad morning for Stephen A. LOL.

Have we just seen the end of the on-side kick?

call for a "fair catch" seems to be the "trick"

Focus on fracking: posted.

oil price jumps 17% on OPEC supply cut;
natural gas stores see largest autumn increase on record;
US oil supplies at a 20½ year low;
SPR at a 38 year low;
gasoline supplies at eight year low with gasoline demand at a 9 month high;
total oil + oil products supplies at a 17 year low..

Reading the blog: after posting this story often during the past year, "everyone" is now reporting it.

the big energy story this year: not gasoline, not natural gas, but diesel
from Bloomberg this morning

The Saudi Arabian production cut:

domestic:

Some of the reduction in output could be soaked up by lower domestic demand as temperatures ease. Domestic consumption of crude in power generation swings seasonally by more than 350,000 barrels a day. The biggest falls usually occur in October or November, depending on when the weather begins to cool. But over the past five years the average drop in the kingdom’s direct use of crude between October and November has been less than 75,000 barrels a day. So lower domestic use is unlikely to soak up more than 20% of the output reduction.

Asia: no change
US:

It looks like the cut going to hit buyers in Europe or the US.In contrast to other regions, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude being delivered across the Atlantic — exports to the US are currently running at just over 400,000 barrels a day. The kingdom may be adding injury to insult by focusing its output cut on shipments to the US.

Bloomberg fails to mention that California will feel the greatest impact.

Sakhalin-1: see this post for background.

apparently this is not sitting well with Japan ; why does this not surprise me? LOL.
it looks like Putin has picked another fight -- this one with Japan

********************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI:

Natural gas:

Monday, October 10, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 466 for the year
38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2,

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 464 for the year
38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1,
37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H,

Saturday, October 8, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 461 for the year
38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,

RBN Energy: US LNG feedgas volumes swing wildly ahead of peak winter demand.

Total U.S. LNG export capacity is around 12 Bcf/d, including the still-commissioning-but-nearly-complete Calcasieu Pass. About 13.5 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas supplies, or feedgas, is required to produce that much LNG, but feedgas demand has averaged just 10.5 Bcf/d over the past week despite still-soaring global gas prices and an undersupplied global LNG market.

Two U.S. terminals are currently offline: Freeport LNG, which has been out of service since an explosion and fire in June, and now Cove Point LNG, which shut for annual maintenance October 1, 2022.

Beyond those outages, which have taken about 2.75 Bcf/d of demand out of commission, LNG feedgas volumes have been extremely volatile, swinging as much as 2 Bcf/d within a week.

Don’t expect this to last, however — with winter approaching, the return of both Freeport and Cove Point on the horizon, and the full startup of Calcasieu Pass in sight, feedgas demand will likely rise to new heights and soon consistently top 13 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog we take a closer look at the recent volatility in LNG feedgas and the potential demand coming this winter.

Tyson Foods Leaving Chicago -- October 10, 2022

Back in 2017, the Fortune 500 companies in Illinois at this link.

Since then, at least three have left: Caterpillar, Citadel and Boeing.

Now a fourth large company is leaving Chicago: Tyson Foods. Link here.

The poultry producer said Wednesday that it's bringing together its corporate employees at its global headquarters in Arkansas, resulting in the closure of three offices, including downtown Chicago, Downers Grove, Illinois, and Dakota Dunes in South Dakota.

Roughly 1,000 employees work in the three offices and will begin relocation in early next year.

"Bringing our talented corporate team members and businesses together under one roof unlocks greater opportunities to share perspectives and ideas, while also enabling us to act quickly to solve problems and provide the innovative products solutions that our customers deserve and value," said CEO Donnie King in a release.

Tyson's move serves another blow for Chicago's image. McDonald's, which has its headquarters there, criticized the city for crime. CEO Chris Kempczinski recently said that crime is "seeping into every corner of our city" and he said that he's frequently asked "what's going on in Chicago?"

There may be some "back to office" issues, also, with the pandemic now over.